Bankruptcy prediction using fuzzy methods

In this thesis, a classi cation problem in predicting credit worthiness of a customer is tackled. This is done by proposing a reliable classi cation procedure on a given data set. The aim of this thesis is to design a model that gives the best classi cation accuracy to e ectively predict bankruptcy. FRPCA techniques proposed by Yang and Wang have been preferred since they are tolerant to certain type of noise in the data. These include FRPCA1, FRPCA2 and FRPCA3 from which the best method is chosen. Two di erent approaches are used at the classi cation stage: Similarity classi er and FKNN classi er. Algorithms are tested with Australian credit card screening data set. Results obtained indicate a mean classi cation accuracy of 83.22% using FRPCA1 with similarity classi- er. The FKNN approach yields a mean classi cation accuracy of 85.93% when used with FRPCA2, making it a better method for the suitable choices of the number of nearest neighbors and fuzziness parameters. Details on the calibration of the fuzziness parameter and other parameters associated with the similarity classi er are discussed.

Monitoring of crystallization processes by using infrared spectroscopy and multivariate methods

Väitöstutkimuksessa on tarkasteltuinfrapunaspektroskopian ja monimuuttujaisten aineistonkäsittelymenetelmien soveltamista kiteytysprosessin monitoroinnissa ja kidemäisen tuotteen analysoinnissa. Parhaillaan kiteytysprosessitutkimuksessa maailmanlaajuisesti tutkitaan intensiivisesti erilaisten mittausmenetelmien soveltamista kiteytysprosessin ilmiöidenjatkuvaan mittaamiseen niin nestefaasista kuin syntyvistä kiteistäkin. Lisäksi tuotteen karakterisointi on välttämätöntä tuotteen laadun varmistamiseksi. Erityisesti lääkeaineiden valmistuksessa kiinnostusta tämäntyyppiseen tutkimukseen edistää Yhdysvaltain elintarvike- ja lääkeaineviraston (FDA) prosessianalyyttisiintekniikoihin (PAT) liittyvä ohjeistus, jossa määritellään laajasti vaatimukset lääkeaineiden valmistuksessa ja tuotteen karakterisoinnissa tarvittaville mittauksille turvallisten valmistusprosessien takaamiseksi. Jäähdytyskiteytyson erityisesti lääketeollisuudessa paljon käytetty erotusmenetelmä kiinteän raakatuotteen puhdistuksessa. Menetelmässä puhdistettava kiinteä raaka-aine liuotetaan sopivaan liuottimeen suhteellisen korkeassa lämpötilassa. Puhdistettavan aineen liukoisuus käytettävään liuottimeen laskee lämpötilan laskiessa, joten systeemiä jäähdytettäessä liuenneen aineen konsentraatio prosessissa ylittää liukoisuuskonsentraation. Tällaiseen ylikylläiseen systeemiin pyrkii muodostumaan uusia kiteitä tai olemassa olevat kiteet kasvavat. Ylikylläisyys on yksi tärkeimmistä kidetuotteen laatuun vaikuttavista tekijöistä. Jäähdytyskiteytyksessä syntyvän tuotteen ominaisuuksiin voidaan vaikuttaa mm. liuottimen valinnalla, jäähdytyprofiililla ja sekoituksella. Lisäksi kiteytysprosessin käynnistymisvaihe eli ensimmäisten kiteiden muodostumishetki vaikuttaa tuotteen ominaisuuksiin. Kidemäisen tuotteen laatu määritellään kiteiden keskimääräisen koon, koko- ja muotojakaumansekä puhtauden perusteella. Lääketeollisuudessa on usein vaatimuksena, että tuote edustaa tiettyä polymorfimuotoa, mikä tarkoittaa molekyylien kykyä järjestäytyä kidehilassa usealla eri tavalla. Edellä mainitut ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tuotteen jatkokäsiteltävyyteen, kuten mm. suodattuvuuteen, jauhautuvuuteen ja tabletoitavuuteen. Lisäksi polymorfiamuodolla on vaikutusta moniin tuotteen käytettävyysominaisuuksiin, kuten esim. lääkeaineen liukenemisnopeuteen elimistössä. Väitöstyössä on tutkittu sulfatiatsolin jäähdytyskiteytystä käyttäen useita eri liuotinseoksia ja jäähdytysprofiileja sekä tarkasteltu näiden tekijöiden vaikutustatuotteen laatuominaisuuksiin. Infrapunaspektroskopia on laajalti kemian alan tutkimuksissa sovellettava menetelmä. Siinä mitataan tutkittavan näytteenmolekyylien värähtelyjen aiheuttamia spektrimuutoksia IR alueella. Tutkimuksessa prosessinaikaiset mittaukset toteutettiin in-situ reaktoriin sijoitettavalla uppoanturilla käyttäen vaimennettuun kokonaisheijastukseen (ATR) perustuvaa Fourier muunnettua infrapuna (FTIR) spektroskopiaa. Jauhemaiset näytteet mitattiin off-line diffuusioheijastukseen (DRIFT) perustuvalla FTIR spektroskopialla. Monimuuttujamenetelmillä (kemometria) voidaan useita satoja, jopa tuhansia muuttujia käsittävä spektridata jalostaa kvalitatiiviseksi (laadulliseksi) tai kvantitatiiviseksi (määrälliseksi) prosessia kuvaavaksi informaatioksi. Väitöstyössä tarkasteltiin laajasti erilaisten monimuuttujamenetelmien soveltamista mahdollisimman monipuolisen prosessia kuvaavan informaation saamiseksi mitatusta spektriaineistosta. Väitöstyön tuloksena on ehdotettu kalibrointirutiini liuenneen aineen konsentraation ja edelleen ylikylläisyystason mittaamiseksi kiteytysprosessin aikana. Kalibrointirutiinin kehittämiseen kuuluivat aineiston hyvyyden tarkastelumenetelmät, aineiston esikäsittelymenetelmät, varsinainen kalibrointimallinnus sekä mallin validointi. Näin saadaan reaaliaikaista informaatiota kiteytysprosessin ajavasta voimasta, mikä edelleen parantaa kyseisen prosessin tuntemusta ja hallittavuutta. Ylikylläisyystason vaikutuksia syntyvän kidetuotteen laatuun seurattiin usein kiteytyskokein. Työssä on esitetty myös monimuuttujaiseen tilastolliseen prosessinseurantaan perustuva menetelmä, jolla voidaan ennustaa spontaania primääristä ytimenmuodostumishetkeä mitatusta spektriaineistosta sekä mahdollisesti päätellä ydintymisessä syntyvä polymorfimuoto. Ehdotettua menetelmää hyödyntäen voidaan paitsi ennakoida kideytimien muodostumista myös havaita mahdolliset häiriötilanteet kiteytysprosessin alkuhetkillä. Syntyvää polymorfimuotoa ennustamalla voidaan havaita ei-toivotun polymorfin ydintyminen,ja mahdollisesti muuttaa kiteytyksen ohjausta halutun polymorfimuodon saavuttamiseksi. Monimuuttujamenetelmiä sovellettiin myös kiteytyspanosten välisen vaihtelun määrittämiseen mitatusta spektriaineistosta. Tämäntyyppisestä analyysistä saatua informaatiota voidaan hyödyntää kiteytysprosessien suunnittelussa ja optimoinnissa. Väitöstyössä testattiin IR spektroskopian ja erilaisten monimuuttujamenetelmien soveltuvuutta kidetuotteen polymorfikoostumuksen nopeaan määritykseen. Jauhemaisten näytteiden luokittelu eri polymorfeja sisältäviin näytteisiin voitiin tehdä käyttäen tarkoitukseen soveltuvia monimuuttujaisia luokittelumenetelmiä. Tämä tarjoaa nopean menetelmän jauhemaisen näytteen polymorfikoostumuksen karkeaan arviointiin, eli siihen mitä yksittäistä polymorfia kyseinen näyte pääasiassa sisältää. Varsinainen kvantitatiivinen analyysi, eli sen selvittäminen paljonko esim. painoprosentteina näyte sisältää eri polymorfeja, vaatii kaikki polymorfit kattavan fysikaalisen kalibrointisarjan, mikä voi olla puhtaiden polymorfien huonon saatavuuden takia hankalaa.

Advanced chemometric methods: Applicability on industrial data

Recent years have produced great advances in the instrumentation technology. The amount of available data has been increasing due to the simplicity, speed and accuracy of current spectroscopic instruments. Most of these data are, however, meaningless without a proper analysis. This has been one of the reasons for the overgrowing success of multivariate handling of such data. Industrial data is commonly not designed data; in other words, there is no exact experimental design, but rather the data have been collected as a routine procedure during an industrial process. This makes certain demands on the multivariate modeling, as the selection of samples and variables can have an enormous effect. Common approaches in the modeling of industrial data are PCA (principal component analysis) and PLS (projection to latent structures or partial least squares) but there are also other methods that should be considered. The more advanced methods include multi block modeling and nonlinear modeling. In this thesis it is shown that the results of data analysis vary according to the modeling approach used, thus making the selection of the modeling approach dependent on the purpose of the model. If the model is intended to provide accurate predictions, the approach should be different than in the case where the purpose of modeling is mostly to obtain information about the variables and the process. For industrial applicability it is essential that the methods are robust and sufficiently simple to apply. In this way the methods and the results can be compared and an approach selected that is suitable for the intended purpose. Differences in data analysis methods are compared with data from different fields of industry in this thesis. In the first two papers, the multi block method is considered for data originating from the oil and fertilizer industries. The results are compared to those from PLS and priority PLS. The third paper considers applicability of multivariate models to process control for a reactive crystallization process. In the fourth paper, nonlinear modeling is examined with a data set from the oil industry. The response has a nonlinear relation to the descriptor matrix, and the results are compared between linear modeling, polynomial PLS and nonlinear modeling using nonlinear score vectors.

The influence of crystallization conditions on the filtration characteristics of sulphathiazole suspensions

Cooling crystallization is one of the most important purification and separation techniques in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. The product of the cooling crystallization process is always a suspension that contains both the mother liquor and the product crystals, and therefore the first process step following crystallization is usually solid-liquid separation. The properties of the produced crystals, such as their size and shape, can be affected by modifying the conditions during the crystallization process. The filtration characteristics of solid/liquid suspensions, on the other hand, are strongly influenced by the particle properties, as well as the properties of the liquid phase. It is thus obvious that the effect of the changes made to the crystallization parameters can also be seen in the course of the filtration process. Although the relationship between crystallization and filtration is widely recognized, the number of publications where these unit operations have been considered in the same context seems to be surprisingly small. This thesis explores the influence of different crystallization parameters in an unseeded batch cooling crystallization process on the external appearance of the product crystals and on the pressure filtration characteristics of the obtained product suspensions. Crystallization experiments are performed by crystallizing sulphathiazole (C9H9N3O2S2), which is a wellknown antibiotic agent, from different mixtures of water and n-propanol in an unseeded batch crystallizer. The different crystallization parameters that are studied are the composition of the solvent, the cooling rate during the crystallization experiments carried out by using a constant cooling rate throughout the whole batch, the cooling profile, as well as the mixing intensity during the batch. The obtained crystals are characterized by using an automated image analyzer and the crystals are separated from the solvent through constant pressure batch filtration experiments. Separation characteristics of the suspensions are described by means of average specific cake resistance and average filter cake porosity, and the compressibilities of the cakes are also determined. The results show that fairly large differences can be observed between the size and shape of the crystals, and it is also shown experimentally that the changes in the crystal size and shape have a direct impact on the pressure filtration characteristics of the crystal suspensions. The experimental results are utilized to create a procedure that can be used for estimating the filtration characteristics of solid-liquid suspensions according to the particle size and shape data obtained by image analysis. Multilinear partial least squares regression (N-PLS) models are created between the filtration parameters and the particle size and shape data, and the results presented in this thesis show that relatively obvious correlations can be detected with the obtained models.

Study of ligand-based virtual screening tools in computer-aided drug design

Virtual screening is a central technique in drug discovery today. Millions of molecules can be tested in silico with the aim to only select the most promising and test them experimentally. The topic of this thesis is ligand-based virtual screening tools which take existing active molecules as starting point for finding new drug candidates. One goal of this thesis was to build a model that gives the probability that two molecules are biologically similar as function of one or more chemical similarity scores. Another important goal was to evaluate how well different ligand-based virtual screening tools are able to distinguish active molecules from inactives. One more criterion set for the virtual screening tools was their applicability in scaffold-hopping, i.e. finding new active chemotypes. In the first part of the work, a link was defined between the abstract chemical similarity score given by a screening tool and the probability that the two molecules are biologically similar. These results help to decide objectively which virtual screening hits to test experimentally. The work also resulted in a new type of data fusion method when using two or more tools. In the second part, five ligand-based virtual screening tools were evaluated and their performance was found to be generally poor. Three reasons for this were proposed: false negatives in the benchmark sets, active molecules that do not share the binding mode, and activity cliffs. In the third part of the study, a novel visualization and quantification method is presented for evaluation of the scaffold-hopping ability of virtual screening tools.

High-Throughput Screening for Novel Prostate Cancer Drug Targets –Getting Personal

Prostate cancers form a heterogeneous group of diseases and there is a need for novel biomarkers, and for more efficient and targeted methods of treatment. In this thesis, the potential of microarray data, RNA interference (RNAi) and compound screens were utilized in order to identify novel biomarkers, drug targets and drugs for future personalized prostate cancer therapeutics. First, a bioinformatic mRNA expression analysis covering 9873 human tissue and cell samples, including 349 prostate cancer and 147 normal prostate samples, was used to distinguish in silico prevalidated putative prostate cancer biomarkers and drug targets. Second, RNAi based high-throughput (HT) functional profiling of 295 prostate and prostate cancer tissue specific genes was performed in cultured prostate cancer cells. Third, a HT compound screen approach using a library of 4910 drugs and drug-like molecules was exploited to identify potential drugs inhibiting prostate cancer cell growth. Nine candidate drug targets, with biomarker potential, and one cancer selective compound were validated in vitro and in vivo. In addition to androgen receptor (AR) signaling, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) function, arachidonic acid (AA) pathway, redox homeostasis and mitosis were identified as vital processes in prostate cancer cells. ERG oncogene positive cancer cells exhibited sensitivity to induction of oxidative and ER stress, whereas advanced and castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) could be potentially targeted through AR signaling and mitosis. In conclusion, this thesis illustrates the power of systems biological data analysis in the discovery of potential vulnerabilities present in prostate cancer cells, as well as novel options for personalized cancer management.

Biomolecular screening for inhibitors of butyrylcholinesterase : identification and characterization using in vitro and in silico tools

Drug discovery is a continuous process where researchers are constantly trying to find new and better drugs for the treatment of various conditions. Alzheimer’s disease, a neurodegenerative disease mostly affecting the elderly, has a complex etiology with several possible drug targets. Some of these targets have been known for years while other new targets and theories have emerged more recently. Cholinesterase inhibitors are the major class of drugs currently used for the symptomatic treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. In the Alzheimer’s disease brain there is a deficit of acetylcholine and an impairment in signal transmission. Acetylcholinesterase has therefore been the main target as this is the main enzyme hydrolysing acetylcholine and ending neurotransmission. It is believed that by inhibiting acetylcholinesterase the cholinergic signalling can be enhanced and the cognitive symptoms that arise in Alzheimer’s disease can be improved. Butyrylcholinesterase, the second enzyme of the cholinesterase family, has more recently attracted interest among researchers. Its function is still not fully known, but it is believed to play a role in several diseases, one of them being Alzheimer’s disease. In this contribution the aim has primarily been to identify butyrylcholinesterase inhibitors to be used as drug molecules or molecular probes in the future. Both synthetic and natural compounds in diverse and targeted screening libraries have been used for this purpose. The active compounds have been further characterized regarding their potencies, cytotoxicity, and furthermore, in two of the publications, the inhibitors ability to also inhibit Aβ aggregation in an attempt to discover bifunctional compounds. Further, in silico methods were used to evaluate the binding position of the active compounds with the enzyme targets. Mostly to differentiate between the selectivity towards acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase, but also to assess the structural features required for enzyme inhibition. We also evaluated the compounds, active and non-active, in chemical space using the web-based tool ChemGPS-NP to try and determine the relevant chemical space occupied by cholinesterase inhibitors. In this study, we have succeeded in finding potent butyrylcholinesterase inhibitors with a diverse set of structures, nine chemical classes in total. In addition, some of the compounds are bifunctional as they also inhibit Aβ aggregation. The data gathered from all publications regarding the chemical space occupied by butyrylcholinesterase inhibitors we believe will give an insight into the chemically active space occupied by this type of inhibitors and will hopefully facilitate future screening and result in an even deeper knowledge of butyrylcholinesterase inhibitors.

The Effects of the Breast Cancer Mammography Screening Programme in Women aged 40 to 84 years in Turku, Finland (1987-2009)

The objective of this thesis was to evaluate whether a more extensive mammography screening programme (TurkuMSP) conducted by the city of Turku, had an effect on breast cancer (BC) incidence, survival, or mortality in years 1987 to 2009. Despite the fact that some studies have suggested a 20 percent reduction in BC mortality due to mammography screening, there are findings of harm to subjects, which are claimed to negate the benefits of screening. Thus, the aims of this study are most pertinent. A total of 176 908 screening examinations were performed in 36 000 women aged 40−74 during the years 1987−1997. In all, 685 primary BCs were found in the screened women, either screen-detected (n=531) or during screening intervals (n=154). Survival and BC recurrence rate of women with screen-detected BC was compared to 184 women with clinical BCs detected among individuals who did not take part in the screening. The invitation interval, which may influence the outcome, was studied in the age group 40 to 49 by inviting those born in even calendar years annually for mammography screening and those born in odd years, triennially. In addition, BC incidence and mortality in the total female population of Turku aged 40 to 84 years was compared with the respective figures of Helsinki and the rest of Finland, both during the pre-screening era (1976-1986) and the screening era (1987-2009). The study was designed to compare women by age groups, because women aged 50 to 59 were generally screened in all of Finland, whereas only in Turku women aged 40 to 49 and 60 to 74 were screened in addition. Data regarding cancer recurrence were derived from the Finnish Cancer Registry and data on deaths were collected from Statistics Finland. In survival analyses, screened women with invasive BC had a significantly higher survival rate than the women with clinical BC. The survival benefit started to appear already during the first follow-up years and was evident in all age groups. A marginal survival extension was also seen in screened women when BC had spread to ipsilateral axillary nodes already at diagnosis. Recurrence-free survival rate after BC treatment was significantly more favorable among the screened women compared with women with BC found clinically. The screening invitation interval did not significantly influence BC mortality in the subset of women aged 40 to 49 years. There were no consistent differences in the changes of BC incidence between Turku and the comparison areas during the screening era. In Turku, the BC mortality incidence in women aged 55−69 years was significantly lower during the screening era (from 1987 to 1997) compared with the pre-screening era, whereas no such change was found in the city of Helsinki or Tampere. When comparing the changes in incidence-based BC mortality during years 1987 to 2009 in Turku to those of Helsinki and the rest of Finland, there was a suggestion of more than 20 percent lower mortality in Turku among oldest age group (75-84 years) compared with the reference residential areas, but the differences were not consistently significant. Interpretation of the study results should be made with caution because there were no random control groups, and on the other hand, the number of cases in subgroups was fairly low to yield definite conclusions. Also due to the many statistical analyses, some of the findings may be due to chance. The results are, however, suggestive for a decrease of BC mortality in the elderly age groups due to wide mammography screening. This finding needs confirmation in further studies before recommending an expansion of mammography screening to women up to the age of 74 years

Influence of multi-phase phenomena on semibatch crystallization processes of aqueous solutions

Crystal properties, product quality and particle size are determined by the operating conditions in the crystallization process. Thus, in order to obtain desired end-products, the crystallization process should be effectively controlled based on reliable kinetic information, which can be provided by powerful analytical tools such as Raman spectrometry and thermal analysis. The present research work studied various crystallization processes such as reactive crystallization, precipitation with anti-solvent and evaporation crystallization. The goal of the work was to understand more comprehensively the fundamentals, phenomena and utilizations of crystallization, and establish proper methods to control particle size distribution, especially for three phase gas-liquid-solid crystallization systems. As a part of the solid-liquid equilibrium studies in this work, prediction of KCl solubility in a MgCl2-KCl-H2O system was studied theoretically. Additionally, a solubility prediction model by Pitzer thermodynamic model was investigated based on solubility measurements of potassium dihydrogen phosphate with the presence of non-electronic organic substances in aqueous solutions. The prediction model helps to extend literature data and offers an easy and economical way to choose solvent for anti-solvent precipitation. Using experimental and modern analytical methods, precipitation kinetics and mass transfer in reactive crystallization of magnesium carbonate hydrates with magnesium hydroxide slurry and CO2 gas were systematically investigated. The obtained results gave deeper insight into gas-liquid-solid interactions and the mechanisms of this heterogeneous crystallization process. The research approach developed can provide theoretical guidance and act as a useful reference to promote development of gas-liquid reactive crystallization. Gas-liquid mass transfer of absorption in the presence of solid particles in a stirred tank was investigated in order to gain understanding of how different-sized particles interact with gas bubbles. Based on obtained volumetric mass transfer coefficient values, it was found that the influence of the presence of small particles on gas-liquid mass transfer cannot be ignored since there are interactions between bubbles and particles. Raman spectrometry was successfully applied for liquid and solids analysis in semi-batch anti-solvent precipitation and evaporation crystallization. Real-time information such as supersaturation, formation of precipitates and identification of crystal polymorphs could be obtained by Raman spectrometry. The solubility prediction models, monitoring methods for precipitation and empirical model for absorption developed in this study together with the methodologies used gives valuable information for aspects of industrial crystallization. Furthermore, Raman analysis was seen to be a potential controlling method for various crystallization processes.

Natural freeze crystallization : purification of aqueous Na2SO4 solutions with cold air

The aim of this thesis was to examine efficiency of freeze crystallization and eutectic freeze crystallization in purification of wastewater by imitating natural freezing. In addition, a mathematic model based on heat transfer to determine ice thickness and ice growth rate was examined. Also, the amount of sodium sulfate crystallized at the eutectic point was under investigation. In literature part, advantages and applications of the freeze crystallization are discussed, and possibility to apply it in Northern hemisphere winter weather conditions is under study. Furthermore, main sources of sodium sulfate from Finnish industries are described. The experiments were carried out in modified chest freezer, where a fan was placed in order to obtain laminar air flow inside. Picolog PT-104 data logger was used to monitor temperature changes in the salt-water solution, and constant temperature was maintained in the crystallizer with Lauda RP 850 thermostat. The impurity of formed ice layer was determined by weighing ice samples after experiment and again after 24 hours drying to full dryness in oven. Volume of salt-water solution was also measured after experiment. The highest purity of formed ice layer was obtained with small temperature difference and with long freezing time. On the other hand, the amount of crystallized sodium sulfate was its greatest with long freezing time and higher temperature difference. The results obtained by the mathematic model and empirical results did not differ significantly in most of the experiments. However, the difference increased when salt-water mixture reached its eutectic point, leading to simultaneous ice and salt crystallization. Eutectic point was reached only with the highest salt concentration with one exception. In these cases, calculated values were in many cases greater than the experimental ones. In winter weather conditions freeze crystallization is cost-effective wastewater treatment method and rather simple. Nonetheless, the efficiency and separation rate are strongly depended on ambient temperature and its changes