Application of Neural Network Methods in the Prediction of Stock Markets

The purpose of the research is to define practical profit which can be achieved using neural network methods as a prediction instrument. The thesis investigates the ability of neural networks to forecast future events. This capability is checked on the example of price prediction during intraday trading on stock market. The executed experiments show predictions of average 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes’ prices based on data of one day and made by two different types of forecasting systems. These systems are based on the recurrent neural networks and back propagation neural nets. The precision of the predictions is controlled by the absolute error and the error of market direction. The economical effectiveness is estimated by a special trading system. In conclusion, the best structures of neural nets are tested with data of 31 days’ interval. The best results of the average percent of profit from one transaction (buying + selling) are 0.06668654, 0.188299453, 0.349854787 and 0.453178626, they were achieved for prediction periods 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes. The investigation can be interesting for the investors who have access to a fast information channel with a possibility of every-minute data refreshment.

Comovement of stock price risk in strategic alliance — Case: mobile internet

The focus of this study has been comovement of stock price risk level between two companies as they form strategic alliance. Thus the main reason has been to shed more light to possible increased risk level that the stockholder confronts when a company he owns forms a strategic alliance with another company. This study has centralized to interfirm cooperation between mobile and internet companies, which have furthered the development of mobile internet. The study has been divided into theoretical and empirical part. In theoretical part the main concepts riskiness of a stock (volatility), comovement and strategic alliance have been run through. In empirical part seven strategic alliances formed by mobile internet companies have been examined. Based on this, strategic alliance seems to increase comovement of stock price risk in some degree. This comovement seems to be stronger when core businesses or operating environments of cooperating companies differ more from each other.

Total Cost of Ownership - Elinkaarilaskennan sovellus

Ostotapahtumassa kiinnitetään usein huomiota hintaan, mutta hankintapäätökseen vaikuttavat myös muutkin kustannukset. Ongelman asiassa aiheuttaa kokonaiskustannusvaikutuksien arvioinnin ja mittauksen haasteellisuus, sekä kunnollisen raportointijärjestelmän puuttuminen. Hankinnan kokonaiskustannusten selvittäminen pitkällä aikavälillä on kuitenkin tärkeää, koska hankintojen osuus yritysten liikevaihdoista on jatkuvassa kasvussa. Työn tarkoituksena oli tarkastella Total cost of ownershipia, eli TCO:ta, elinkaarilaskennan sovellusta. Tarkastelun aluksi työlle luotiin teoreettinen pohja käyttäen hyväksi kirjallisuutta, artikkeleita sekä www-dokumentteja. Teoriaosuus rakentui kustannuslaskennan osalta kustannusten tunnistamisesta, jakamisesta ja kohdistamisesta. TCO:sta luotiin mahdollisimman laaja-alainen teoreettinen kuvaus. Seuraavaksi työssä käsiteltiin TCO:n soveltamista sen perinteisimpiin käyttökohteisiin: taloudellisesti merkittäviin hankintoihin, ulkoistamispäätöksiin, hinnoitteluun sekä toimittajien suorituskyvyn seurantaan ja analysointiin. TCO:n soveltamista käsittelevä osuus päätettiin kotimaisilla esimerkeillä TCO:n soveltamisesta IT-hankintojen apuvälineenä. Työ päätettiin käymällä läpi työtä tehdessä kypsyneet ajatukset sekä johtopäätökset.

Effects of stock splits on stock returns: An event study of Finnish companies

Tämän kandidaatintyön tavoitteena on tutkia osakkeen nimellisarvon jakamisen vaikutusta osakkeen markkina-arvoon Suomessa vuosina 1996-2007. Ilmiötä tarkastellaan tapahtumatutkimusmenetelmän avulla ja lopullinen tutkittavien osakesplittien määrä on 38. Tutkimuksessa ei löydetty epänormaaleja tuottoja splittien julkistushetkellä, joten tämän aineiston mukaan sijoittajat eivät pitäneet sitä johdolta tulevana positiivisena signaalina. Sitä vastoin tutkimuksessa löydettiin positiivinen kurssimuutos niiden osakkeiden kohdalla, jolloin pörssiyhtiö ilmoitti splitin ohella myös osingonjaostaan.

Measuring Cost of Poor Quality in Industrial Electronics

Quality is not only free but it can be a profit maker. Every dollar that is not spent on doing things wrong becomes a dollar right on the bottom line. The main objective of this thesis is to give an answer on how cost of poor quality can be measured theoretically correctly. Different calculation methods for cost of poor quality are presented and discussed in order to give comprehensive picture about measurement process. The second objective is to utilize the knowledge from the literature review and to apply it when creating a method for measuring cost of poor quality in supplier performance rating. Literature review indicates that P-A-F model together with ABC methodology provides a mean for quality cost calculations. These models give an answer what should be measured and how this measurement should be carried out. However, when product or service quality costs are incurred when quality character derivates from target value, then QLF seems to be most appropriate methodology for quality cost calculation. These methodologies were applied when creating a quality cost calculation method for supplier performance ratings.

Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

CTQ process flow development and the impact for cost of quality

Tämä työ tehtiin Kone Industrial Oy:lle Major Projects yksikköön, laatuosastolle. Kone Major Projects yksikkö keskittyy erikoisiin ja suuriin hissi- ja liukuporras projekteihin. Työn tavoitteena oli luoda harmonisoitu prosessi hissikomponenttien laaduntarkkailua varten sekä tarkastella ja vertailla kustannussäästöjä, jota tällä uudella prosessilla voidaan saavuttaa. Tavoitteena oli saavuttaa 80-prosentin kustannussäästöt laatukustannuksissa uuden laatuprosessin avulla. Työn taustana ja tutkimusongelmana ovat lisääntyneet erikoisprojektit ja niiden myötä lisääntynyt laaduntarkkailun tarve. Ongelmana laaduntarkkailussa voitiin pitää harmonisoidun ja selkeän prosessin puuttumista C-prosessikomponenttien valmistuksessa. Lisäksi kehitysprosessin aikana luotiin vanhojen työkalujen pohjalta keskeinen laaduntarkkailutyökalu, CTQ-työkalu. Työssä käsitellään ensin Konetta yhtiönä ja selvitetään Koneen keskeisimmät prosessit työn taustaksi. Teoria osuudessa käsitellään prosessin kehitykseen liittyviä teorioita sekä yleisiä laatukäsitteitä ja esitetään teorioita laadun asemasta nykypäivänä. Lopuksi käsitellään COQ eli laatukustannusten teoriaa ja esitellään teoria PAF-analyysille, jota käytetään työssä laatukustannusten vertailuun case esimerkin avulla. Työssä kuvataan CTQ prosessin luominen alusta loppuun ja case esimerkin avulla testataan uutta CTQ prosessia pilottihankkeessa. Tässä case esimerkissä projektin bracket eli johdekiinnitysklipsi tuotetaan uuden laatuprosessin avulla sekä tehdään kustannusvertailu saman projektin toisen bracketin kanssa, joka on tuotettu ennen uuden laatuprosessin implementoimista. Työn lopputuloksena CTQ prosessi saatiin luotua ja sitä pystyttiin testaamaan käytännössä case esimerkin avulla. Tulosten perusteella voidaan sanoa, että CTQ prosessin käyttö vähentää laatukustannuksia huomattavasti ja helpottaa laadunhallintaa C-prosessikomponenttien tuotannossa.

Insiders´ views as a predictor of stock performance : can insider trading be used to predict stock performance on the United States stock market?

This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.