Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

Kilpailuetu ja liiketoiminnan kehittäminen – cash&carry-ketju muuttuvassa ympäristössä

Suomalaiset yritykset ovat lähteneet hakemaan kasvua omille liiketoiminnoilleen, ja Baltian markkina-alue on ollut monille yrityksille ensimmäinen askel kansainvälisille liiketoiminnoille. Erityisesti tukkukauppatoimiala on ollut kasvussa Baltian alueella. Tässä työssä on käsitelty yhtä tukkukaupan muotoa, noutotukkukauppaa, Virossa toimivan pääosaltaan suomalaisomisteisen cash&carry-ketjun näkökulmasta. Ensimmäinen ketjun toimipiste perustettiin jo 1990-luvun alussa lähes heti Viron itsenäistymisen jälkeen. Toukokuussa 2005 perustetaan ketjun kahdeksas toimipiste. Jotta yritykset pärjäisivät kilpailussa, on niiden investoitava eri tavoin toimintaansa, että liiketoiminta jatkuisi ja asema kilpailutilanteessa säilyisi. Tehokkaat markkinointi- ja jakelukanavaratkaisut ovat yritysten intresseissä, koska niillä yritykset pystyvät lisäämään usein kontrollia markkinoista. Jokainen yritys pyrkii kehittämään liiketoimintaansa, ja sillä pyritään saavuttamaan kilpailuetuja tai säilyttämään nykyinen kilpailuetu. Toiminnan kehittäminen vaatii jatkuvaa liiketoimintaympäristön seurantaa, jotta aukenevat mahdollisuudet pystyttäisiin hyödyntämään ja tekemään liiketoiminnalle kannattavia ratkaisuja.

Risk Parity: A Modern Tool for Diversification

The purpose of this study is to examine how well risk parity works in terms of risk, return and diversification relative to more traditional minimum variance, 1/N and 60/40 portfolios. Risk parity portfolios were constituted of five risk sources; three common asset classes and two alternative beta investment strategies. The three common asset classes were equities, bonds and commodities, and the alternative beta investment strategies were carry trade and trend following. Risk parity portfolios were constructed using five different risk measures of which four were tail risk measures. The risk measures were standard deviation, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, modified Value-at-Risk and modified Expected Shortfall. We studied also how sensitive risk parity is to the choice of risk measure. The hypothesis is that risk parity portfolios provide better return with the same amount of risk and are better diversified than the benchmark portfolios. We used two data sets, monthly and weekly data. The monthly data was from the years 1989-2011 and the weekly data was from the years 2000-2011. Empirical studies showed that risk parity portfolios provide better diversification since the diversification is made at the risk level. Risk based portfolios provided superior return compared to the asset based portfolios. Using tail risk measures in risk parity portfolios do not necessarily provide better hedge from tail events than standard deviation.

International bioenergy trade- scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and thesecond involved an international group. A heuristic, semi-structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes.The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi-layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects related the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams.

Solid and liquid biofuels markets in Finland - a study on international biofuels trade

This study considered the current situation of solid and liquid biofuels markets and international biofuels trade in Finland and identified the challenges ofthe emerging international biofuels markets for Finland. The fact that industryconsumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production (CHP) and a high share of biofuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. One third of the electricity is generated in CHP plants. As much as 27% of the total energy consumption ismet by using wood and peat, which makes Finland the leading country in the use of biofuels. Finland has made a commitment to maintain greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level at the highest during the period 2008-2012. The Finnish energypolicy aims to achieve the target, and a variety of measures are taken to promote the use of renewable energy sources and especially wood fuels. In this study, the wooden raw material streams of the forest industry were included the international biofuels trade in addition to biomass streams that are traded for energy production. In 2004, as much as 45% of the raw wood importedinto Finland ended up in energy production. The total international trading of biofuels was evaluated at 72 PJ, of which the majority, 58 PJ, was raw wood. About 22% of wood based energy in Finland originated from imported raw wood. Tall oil and wood pellets composed the largest export streams of biofuels. The annual turnover of international biofuels trade was estimated at about ¤ 90 million fordirect trade and at about ¤ 190 million for indirect trade. The forest industryas the biggest user of wood, and the producer and user of wood fuels has a central position in biomass and biofuels markets in Finland. Lately, the international aspects of Finnish biofuels markets have been emphasised as the import of rawwood and the export of wood pellets have increased. Expanding the use of biofuels in the road transportation sector would increase the international streams ofbiofuels in Finland. In coming years, the international trading of biomass for energy purposes can be expected to continue growing.

Räjähdyssuojausasiakirjan vaatima riskin arviointi muille kuin sähkölaitteille

Turvatekniikan keskuksella (TUKES) on valvottavanaan noin 1 000 teollisuuslaitosta, joissa on räjähdysvaarallisia tiloja. Olosuhdedirektiivin (1999/92/EY) mukainen kansal-linen asetus (VNa 576/2003) tuli voimaan 1.9.2003. Asetus koskee uusia räjähdysvaa-rallisia tiloja välittömästi, kun taas käytössä olevat tilat on saatettava sen mukaisiksi 30.6.2006 mennessä. Asetus edellyttää, että työnantaja laatii räjähdysvaarallisille tiloille räjähdyssuojausasiakirjan ja arvioi kirjallisesti näissä tiloissa käytettävien, ilman Ex-merkkiä olevien työvälineiden riskin. Räjähdyssuojausasiakirjan ja kirjallisena tehdyn riskin arvioinnin eräs keskeinen tarkoitus on varmistaa mahdollisten syttymislähteiden laaja-alainen hallinta ja pienentää onnettomuusriskiä. Tässä diplomityössä selvitetään, mitä riskin arvioinnin täytyy sisältää ja etsitään tehokas menetelmä arvioinnin tekoon. Kolmelta yritykseltä saatiin tutkittavaksi niiden alalle tyypillinen muu kuin sähkölaite, jota käytetään räjähdysvaarallisessa tilassa. Laitteiden tuli olla Ex-merkittömiä ja olla ollut käytössä ennen asetuksen voimaan tuloa. Laitteiden ja niiden dokumenttien tutkimisella testattiin eri menetelmien soveltuvuutta riskin arviointiin. Samalla selvitettiin jo käytössä olevien laitteiden turvallisuustaso. Jokaisen pilottitapauksen kohdalla on arvioinnissa menetelty eri tavoin. Työssä esitellään keskeisimmät menetelmät, joilla riskin arviointi voidaan tehdä. Suosi-tuksena esitellään ratkaisumalli, jonka avulla voidaan päätellä laitteen tarvitsema riskinarviointimenetelmä. Pilottitapauksia arvioitiin laitteiden sijoituksen ja lukumäärän pohjalta. Suosituksena on, että riskin arvioinnissa lähdetään liikkeelle itse laitteesta ja sen soveltuvuudesta räjähdysvaaralliseen tilaan. Tällä tavalla pystytään kohdistamaan käytössä olevat resurssit paremmin niihin laitteisiin, jotka vaativat tarkemman riskin arvioinnin. Pilottitapausten perusteella räjähdysvaaralliseen tilaan tarkoitetut laitteet soveltuivat käytettäväksi tarkoitetussa käytössään. Räjähdyssuojausasiakirjaa varten on dokumentoitava tiedot niiden käytöstä, mahdollisista syttymislähteistä ja suojaavista toimenpiteistä.

Operative level purchasing in pharmaceutical wholesale trade

Tämän tutkintotyön tavoitteena on selvittää operatiivista ostotoimintaa, joka sisältää oikea-aikaisen tilausrytmin ja tasapainoisen tilausmäärän määrityksen sekä saapuvan tavaravirran mukauttamisen myyntiin tai kulutukseen kokonaisuutena. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan myös varastojen merkitystä ja ostotoiminnan kannalta keskeisimpiä tehokkaaseen varastonohjaukseen liittyviä tunnuslukuja. Tutkimus sisältää lääkkeiden toimitusketjun kuvauksen, koska se poikkeaa merkittävästi muista toimialoista. Tämä tutkintotyö on syntetisoiva kirjallisuustutkimus. Tutkintotyön empiirisessä osassa analysoidaan aluksi case-yrityksen vaihto-omaisuusvaraston ohjausta ostotoiminnan näkökulmasta ABC analyysiin pohjautuen. Tämän jälkeen ostotoimintaa analysoidaan tarkemmin tiettyjen toimittajien osalta. Lopuksi laaditaan optimaalinen tilausrytmi ja tilausmäärät sekä ostobudjetti yhden toimittajan tuotteille. ABC analyysia voidaan hyödyntää työkaluna määriteltäessä miten erilaisten tuotteiden materiaalivirtoja tulisi ostotoiminnan kannalta ohjata. Analyysi perustuu resurssien keskittämiseen sinne missä tuotto on suurin.

Strateginen mittaaminen monialaisessa vähittäiskauppakonsernissa - S-ryhmäsovellus

Tutkielman päätavoitteena on kehittää konsernitason strategista johtamista tukeva mittaristo vähittäiskauppakonsernille. Ensimmäisenä osatavoitteena on tutkia strategisen johtamisen ja suorituskyvyn sekä mittaamisen doktriinia strategian seurannan näkökulmasta Toiseksi tutkitaan osuustoimintaa mittaamisen näkökulmasta ja S-ryhmän käytössä olevia mittaristoja. Kolmanneksi selvitetään strategisia vaihtoehtoja ja soveltaa niitä case-yritykseen. Neljänneksi arvioidaan mittariston relevanssi. Tutkimusmenetelmä on konstruktiivinen, ja tutkimustieto kerätään puolistrukturoiduilla teemahaastatteluilla. Kaupan strategisten perusvaihtoehtojen tarkastelun taustaksi esitellään kaupan erityispiirteitä, strategisia menestystekijöitä ja strategian vaihtoehtoja selventävä katsaus sekä selvitetään kaupan strategian sisältöä perustuen alan kirjallisuuteen, tieteellisiin artikkeleihin ja ajankohtaisiin uutisartikkeleihin. Lisäksi luodaan katsaus mittaamisteoriaan ja strategiaprosessiin mittaamisen näkökulmasta. Suorituskykymittaristojen esittelyssä vertaillaan eri mittaristoja keskenään. Balanced Scorecard esitellään strategisena johtamis- ja mittaamisjärjestelmänä, koska se soveltuu hyvin laaditun strategian toteuttamisen mittaamiseen. Osuuskauppa Keulan mittariston taustaksi tutkitaan S-ryhmän käytössä olevia mittareita, ja haastattelujen pohjalta luodaan katsaus osuuskauppojen mittaamiseen. Lopuksi sovelletaan strategisten valintavaihtoehtojen malleja Osuuskauppa Keulaan. Valintapäätösten taustaksi tarvitaan perusteellinen strateginen analyysi, jotta ylin johto pystyy tekemään yrityksen tilanteeseen sopivat valinnat. Tätä analyysia on sivuttu ja tehty johtopäätöksiä yrityksen toiminta-ajatuksen pohjalta strategisista todellisista vaihtoehdoista. Doktriinin ja empirian pohjalta määritellään kohdeyritykselle kriittiset menestystekijät ja niille mitattavat tavoitteet. Lopuksi strategian toteuttamisen seurantaan kehitetään toiminta-ajatuksen ja vision toteuttamista mittaavat strategiset mittarit, joissa otetaan huomioon kuluttajaosuustoiminnan erityispiirteet.

IEA Bioenergy Task 40 “Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing supply and demand” Country report of Finland 2008

This study considered the current situation of biofuels markets in Finland. The fact that industry consumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production and a high share of solid biomass fuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. Wood is the most important source of bioenergy in Finland, representing 21% of the total energy consumption in 2006. Almost 80% of the wood-based energy is recovered from industrial by-products and residues. Finland has commitment itself to maintaining its greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level, at the highest, during the period 2008–2012. The energy and climate policy carried out in recent years has been based on the National Energy and Climate introduced in 2005. The Finnish energy policy aims to achieve the target, and a variety of measures are taken to promote the use of renewable energy sources and especially wood fuels. In 2007, the government started to prepare a new long-term (up to the year 2050) climate and energy strategy that will meet EU’s new targets for the reduction of green house gas emissions and the promotion of renewable energy sources. The new strategy will be introduced during 2008. The international biofuels trade has a substantial importance for the utilisation of bioenergy in Finland. In 2006, the total international trading of solid and liquid biofuels was approximately 64 PJ of which import was 61 PJ. Most of the import is indirect and takes place within the forest industry’s raw wood imports. In 2006, as much as 24% of wood energy was based on foreignorigin wood. Wood pellets and tall oil form the majority of export streams of biofuels. The indirect import of wood fuels increased almost 10% in 2004–2006, while the direct trade of solid and liquid biofuels has been almost constant.

Analyzing Carbon Trade Permits in Optimization Framework

The threats caused by global warming motivate different stake holders to deal with and control them. This Master's thesis focuses on analyzing carbon trade permits in optimization framework. The studied model determines optimal emission and uncertainty levels which minimize the total cost. Research questions are formulated and answered by using different optimization tools. The model is developed and calibrated by using available consistent data in the area of carbon emission technology and control. Data and some basic modeling assumptions were extracted from reports and existing literatures. The data collected from the countries in the Kyoto treaty are used to estimate the cost functions. Theory and methods of constrained optimization are briefly presented. A two-level optimization problem (individual and between the parties) is analyzed by using several optimization methods. The combined cost optimization between the parties leads into multivariate model and calls for advanced techniques. Lagrangian, Sequential Quadratic Programming and Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm are referred to. The role of inherent measurement uncertainty in the monitoring of emissions is discussed. We briefly investigate an approach where emission uncertainty would be described in stochastic framework. MATLAB software has been used to provide visualizations including the relationship between decision variables and objective function values. Interpretations in the context of carbon trading were briefly presented. Suggestions for future work are given in stochastic modeling, emission trading and coupled analysis of energy prices and carbon permits.

Finnish Critical Industries, Maritime Transport Vulnerabilities and societal Implications

Maritime transports are very essential for Finland as over 80% of the foreign trade in the country is seaborne and possibilities to carry out these transports by are limited. Any disruption in maritime transports has negative consequences to many sectors in the Finnish economy. Maritime transport thus represents critical infrastructure for Finland. This report focuses on the importance of maritime transports on security of supply in Finland and for the so called critical industries in particular. The report summarizes the results of the Work Package 2 of the research project STOCA – “Study of cargo flows in the Gulf of Finland in emergency situations”. The aim of the research was to analyze the cargo flows and infrastructure that are vital for maintaining security of supply in Finland, as well as the consequences of disruptions in the maritime traffic for the Finnish critical industries and for the Finnish society. In the report we give a presentation of the infrastructure and transport routes which are critical for maintaining security of supply in Finland. We discuss import dependency of the critical industries, and the importance of the Gulf of Finland ports for Finland. We assess vulnerabilities associated with the critical material flows of the critical industries, and possibilities for alternative routings in case either one or several of the ports in Finland would be closed. As a concrete example of a transport disruption we analyze the consequences of the Finnish stevedore strike at public ports (4.3.–19.3.2010). The strike stopped approximately 80% of the Finnish foreign trade. As a result of the strike Finnish companies could not export their products and/or import raw materials, components and spare parts, or other essential supplies. We carried out personal interviews with representatives of the companies in Finnish critical industries to find out about the problems caused by the strike, how companies carried out they transports and how they managed to continue their operations during the strike. Discussions with the representatives of the companies gave us very practical insights about companies’ preparedness towards transport disruptions in general. Companies in the modern world are very vulnerable to transport disruptions because companies regardless of industries have tried to improve their performance by optimizing their resources and e.g. by reducing their inventory levels. At the same time they have become more and more dependent on continuous transports. Most companies involved in foreign trade have global operations and global supply chains, so any disruption anywhere in the world can have an impact on the operations of the company causing considerable financial loss. The volcanic eruption in Iceland in April 2010 stopping air traffic in the whole Northern Europe and most recently the earth quake causing a tsunami in Japan in March 2011 are examples of severe disruptions causing considerable negative impacts to companies’ supply chains. Even though the Finnish stevedore strike was a minor disruption compared to the natural catastrophes mentioned above, it showed the companies’ vulnerability to transport disruptions very concretely. The Finnish stevedore strike gave a concrete learning experience of the importance of preventive planning for all Finnish companies: it made them re-think their practical preparedness towards transport risks and how they can continue with their daily operations despite the problems. Many companies realized they need to adapt their long-term countermeasures against transport disruptions. During the strike companies did various actions to secure their supply chains. The companies raised their inventory levels before the strike began, they re-scheduled or postponed their deliveries, shifted customer orders between production plants among their company’s production network or in the extreme case bought finished products from their competitor to fulfil their customers’ order. Our results also show that possibilities to prepare against transport disruptions differ between industries. The Finnish society as a whole is very dependent on imports of energy, various raw materials and other supplies needed by the different industries. For many of the Finnish companies in the export industries and e.g. in energy production maritime transport is the only transport mode the companies can use due to large volumes of materials transported or due to other characteristics of the goods. Therefore maritime transport cannot be replaced by any other transport mode. In addition, a significant amount of transports are concentrated in certain ports. From a security of supply perspective attention should be paid to finding ways to decrease import dependency and ensuring that companies in the critical industries can ensure the continuity of their operations.

Abuses in the Poultry Trade

18 x 25 cm