Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Development of research networks : the case of social capital

The aim of this study is to explore how a new concept appears inscientific discussion and research, how it diffuses to other fields and out of the scientific communities, and how the networks are formed around the concept. Text and terminology take the interest of a reader in the digital environment. Texts create networks where the terminology used is dependent on the ideas, viewsand paradigms of the field. This study is based mainly on bibliographic data. Materials for bibliometric studies have been collected from different databases. The databases are also evaluated and their quality and coverage are discussed. The thesauri of those databases that have been selected for a more in depth study have also been evaluated. The material selected has been used to study how long and in which ways an innovative publication, which can be seen as a milestone in a specific field, influences the research. The concept that has been chosen as a topic for this research is Social Capital, because it has been a popular concept in different scientific fields as well as in everyday speech and the media. It seemed to be a `fashion concept´ that appeared in different situations at the Millennium. The growth and diffusion of social capital publications has been studied. The terms connected with social capital in different fields and different stages of the development have also been analyzed. The methods that have been used in this study are growth and diffusion analysis, content analysis, citation analysis, coword analysis and cocitation analysis. One method that can be used tounderstand and to interpret results of these bibliometric studies is to interview some key persons, who are known to have a gatekeeper position in the diffusion of the concept. Thematic interviews with some Finnish researchers and specialists that have influenced the diffusion of social capital into Finnish scientificand social discussions provide background information. iv The Milestone Publications on social capital have been chosen and studied. They give answers to the question "What is Social Capital?" By comparing citations to Milestone Publications with the growth of all social capital publications in a database, we can drawconclusions about the point at which social capital became generally approved `tacit knowledge´. The contribution of the present study lies foremost in understanding the development of network structures around a new concept that has diffused in scientific communities and also outside them. The network means both networks of researchers, networks of publications and networks of concepts that describe the research field. The emphasis has been on the digital environment and onthe socalled information society that we are now living in, but in this transitional stage, the printed publications are still important and widely used in social sciences and humanities. The network formation is affected by social relations and informal contacts that push new ideas. This study also gives new information about using different research methods, like bibliometric methods supported by interviews and content analyses. It is evident that interpretation of bibliometric maps presupposes qualitative information and understanding of the phenomena under study.

Social entrepreneurship – Believe in it or not!

The practice of social entrepreneurship already exists for a long time but the concept is quite new and has more recently raised a growing interest among academics. However, the majority of researches and considerations about the subject have taken a strong positive concern by omitting some sort of a critical reflection. The idea of this study is to consider the gap between the very optimistic and the more precautious concerns about social entrepreneurship. It means presenting the advantages and downsides connected to the topic in the business, public and third sector. The aim is to help the reader building his/her own belief on social entrepreneurship by considering the positive and negative sides of social entrepreneurship. Hence, the research is intended to take a critical step and aims to answer to the following research questions:  Shall we believe in social entrepreneurship?  What are the reasons for believing or not in social entrepreneurship taking into account the advantages and possible risks of it in the business, public, and third sector? The theoretical framework consists of the comparison between the promising and precautious sides about social entrepreneurship for private, public and non-governmental organizations including the actors or participants inside these sectors. The empirical part is conducted using a qualitative method. Personal interviews of experts in the fields of business, public and third sectors were handled. The purpose of this approach is to compare the critics in theory with the experience of persons dealing with social entrepreneurship. The results from the interviews revealed that in general, reasons for believing in social entrepreneurship prevail over critics about the subject. Social entrepreneurship may not yet represent a full performing business. Concerns for weakening the public power and putting aside the interests of communities in need may exist too. Furthermore, naïve and extra liberal ways of thinking or doing can lead to practices going in opposition with initial social objectives. Nevertheless, problems about social entrepreneurship would be mainly due to the young age of the movement. Time and experience would give better foundations and results to social entrepreneurs. Critics about social entrepreneurship could also easily be done to any sorts of business. Overall, the positive considerations of social entrepreneurship with skillful, motivated and responsible actors could represent some useful tools for enterprises, governments and charities. Some tools among many other possibilities to help people in need.

Talo, kartano, puutarha. Kauppahuoneen omistaja Marie Hackman ja hänen kulutusvalintansa varhaismodernissa Viipurissa

Tutkimuksessa keskitytään tutkimaan kuluttamista elämäntavan ja identiteetin muovaajana yhden yksilön elämän kautta. Kuluttamista tutkitaan statuskuluttamisen (conspicious consumption), tilallisuuden ja sukupuolihistorian käsitteistöä hyväksi käyttäen. Tutkimuksen lähteinä on käytetty liikekirjeitä ja tilikirjoja, yksityistä kirjeenvaihtoa, päiväkirjoja ja sanomalehtiä sekä aikalaismuistelmia. Naista lähdemateriaaleista on koottu sekä tilastollista aineistoa että kvalitatiivista, lähilukuun ja mikrohistorialliseen tutkimusotteeseen nojautuvaa tutkimusta. Tutkimus alkaa vuodesta 1799 ja päättyy 1830-luvulle, jolloin seuraava sukupolvi otti vastuun liiketoimista ja lähdeaineistossa tapahtui muutoksia kuluttamisen kirjaamisen suhteen. Tutkimuksen keskeiset käsitteet ovat statuskuluttaminen ja identiteetti. Näitä käsitteitä lähestytään Thorstein Veblenin, Norbert Eliaksen ja Pierre Bourdieun tutkimuksia apuna käyttäen. Tutkimus käsittelee erottautumisen ja jäljittelyn tematiikkaa merkittävimpänä kuluttamisen motivaattoreina. Lisaksi tutkimus nostaa esille hyvän maun ja muodinmukaisuuden kulutusvalintojen taustalla. Statuskuluttaminen kytkeytyy sosiaaliseen kanssakäymiseen. Kuluttamisen kohteet ovat esineitä ja asioita, joita pidetään esillä seurapiireissä. Kuluttaminen tapahtuu seuraelämän ehdoilla, sen mukavoittamiseksi, aseman osoittamiseksi seurapiireissä tai sosiaalisen paineen vuoksi. Tutkimus osoittaa kotitalouden merkityksen kuluttamisen paikkana ja kohteena. Tutkimus myös osoittaa naisten toimintakentän olleen kytköksissä kotitalouden asemaan yhteisössään sekä osoittaa, että sukupuolta pitää tarkastella suhteessa yksilön sosiaaliseen asemaan. Tutkimus osoittaa, että Marie Hackmanin kuluttaminen muuttui ikääntymisen myötä. Aseman osoittaminen oli merkittävämpää nuorena ja aseman ollessa vielä vakiintumattomampi.

The Effects of Multifactorial Fall Prevention on the Psychological Risk Factors of Falling

Psychological factors, such as depression or depressive symptoms and fear of falling are linked to falls among the aged. According to previous studies, they may increase the risk of falls and injurious falls. In addition, depression or a high amount of depressive symptoms and fear of falling may hinder participation in preventive activities. Despite the severe consequences of both conditions and their high prevalence among the aged, they have rarely been studied in the context of fall prevention. The study aimed to assess the effects of multifactorial fall prevention on the psychological risk factors of falling (depressive symptoms and fear of falling) among the community-dwelling aged at increased risk of falling. In addition, it aimed to determine factors predicting high adherence to preventive activities. Volunteers aged 65 or over, who had fallen during the year previous to randomisation were recruited. Participants (n=591) were randomised into an intervention or a control group. The intervention group received a multifactorial fall prevention programme including geriatric assessment, individual guidance on fall and fracture prevention, group- and home-based physical exercise, psychosocial group activities, lectures and home hazards assessment. The control group had a one-time counselling on fall and fracture prevention. The data on psychological risk factors of falling were collected by self-rated questionnaires. Multifactorial fall prevention was not effective in reducing depressive symptoms or fear of falling compared to one-time counselling in the total sample. However, in subgroup analyses, depressive symptoms reduced statistically significantly more among the men and older participants of the intervention group compared to the control group. Female gender, high physical and cognitive abilities and low self-perceived probability of falling were independent predictors of higher adherence in organised activities. In conclusion, few psychological benefits were gained during this multifactorial fall prevention trial. More attention should be focused on adherence, especially among the aged with functional disabilities.

Virtuaaliyhteisön tiedon jakamisen toimintaympäristö

Tässä tutkielmassa tutkitaan, miten luodaan tuloksellisesti toimiva tiedon jakamisen toimintaympäristö, missä virtuaaliyhteisön jäsenet voivat jakaa päivittäiset tiedon jakamisen prosessit ja luoda tietopääomaa. Tämä tutkielma luo kokonaiskäsityksen siitä, mitä tekijöitä tarvitaan ja miten tekijöiden välisellä vuorovaikutuksella luodaan tulokselliset tiedon jakamisen olosuhteet. Toisaalta virtuaaliyhteisöjen jäsenten tulee tietää kriittiset tiedon jakamisen esteet, jotka estävät tiedon jakamisen olosuhteiden kehittymistä. Kirjallisuustutkimukseen perustuen tutkielma esittää, että tuloksellisesti toimivien virtuaaliyhteisöjen tiedon jakamisen toimintaympäristö voidaan luoda tietojohtamisen sosioteknisen lähestymistavan sosioteknisten tasojen ja sosiaalisen pääoman vuorovaikutuksella. Rakentamalla sosiotekniset tasot tietojohtamisen järjestelmiin ja asettamalla ne vuorovaikutukseen sosiaalisen pääoman kanssa kyetään tiedon jakamisen olosuhteisiin myötävaikuttamaan. Samalla tiedon jakamisen esteiden vaikutusta kyetään vähentämään tai poistamaan.

Loneliness of Older People and Elements of an Intervention for its Alleviation

Ikääntyneiden yksinäisyys ja intervention elementit sen lievittämisessä Ikääntyneiden yksinäisyys on yleistä ja hoitotyöntekijöillä on vähän keinoja sen lievittämiseen. Tutkimus oli kaksiosainen. Ensimmäisen osan tavoitteena oli saada tietoa yksinäisyyden käsitteestä, sen yhteydestä sosiaaliseen eristäytyneisyyteen ja yleiseen turvattomuuden tunteeseen sekä kotona asuvien ikääntyneiden (≥75 v.) yksinäisyyden yleisyydestä ja siihen yhteydessä olevista tekijöistä sekä selvittää ikääntyneiden itsensä kokemia yksinäisyyden syitä. Toisessa osassa tavoitteena oli tunnistaa yksinäisyyden lievittämiseen pyrkivän psykososiaalisen ryhmäkuntoutus (PRK) –intervention elementit sekä kuvata ryhmiin osallistuneiden kokemuksia interventiosta. Ensimmäisessä osassa tutkimusaineosto kerättiin postikyselyllä, joka lähetettiin eri puolilla Suomea kotona tai palvelutalossa asuville satunnaisotannalla valituille ikääntyneille henkilöille (N=6 786). Vastausprosentti oli 72 % (n=4113). Vastaajien keski-ikä oli 81 vuotta. Tutkimuksen toisessa osassa aineisto koostui PRK intervention ryhmänvetäjien (N=14) kirjoittamista päiväkirjoista, tutkijoiden vapaista muistiinpanoista ryhmätoiminnasta (N=32) sekä ryhmäläisten intervention jälkeen täyttämistä palautekyselystä (n=103). Tulosten mukaan yksinäisyys, sosiaalinen eristäytyneisyys ja yleinen turvattomuuden tunne näyttävät olevan eri asioita. Vastanneista 39 % kärsi yksinäisyydestä vähintään joskus. Useat demografiset ja terveyteen liittyvät tekijät, psyykkisen hyvinvoinnin ulottuvuudet kuten myös sosiaalisiin suhteisiin kohdistetut odotukset olivat yhteydessä yksinäisyyden kokemiseen. Vanhempien menettäminen lapsuudessa ei ollut yhteydessä yksinäisyyden kokemiseen. Yksinäisyyden kokemuksiin oli useita syitä. Aineistosta tunnistettiin elementtejä, joiden katsottiin olevan tärkeitä yksinäisyyden lievittämiseen pyrkivän PRK-intervention toteutuksessa. Nämä voitiin jakaa ennalta määriteltyihin elementteihin, ryhmäläisten sisäisiin ja välisiin suosiollisiin prosesseihin sekä välittäviin tekijöihin. Ennalta määritellyt elementit liittyivät ryhmäläisiin, ryhmän vetäjiin ja ryhmätoimintaan. Ryhmäläiset kokivat ryhmät erittäin merkityksellisiksi, ja 95 % koki, että yksinäisyys oli lievittynyt ryhmän aikana. Ikääntyneiden henkilöiden yksinäisyys on haaste hoitotyön tekijöille. Tutkimuksessa kuvattu PRK-interventio auttaa hoitajia tunnistamaan ikääntyneiden yksinäisyyden lievittämiseen liittyviä elementtejä.

Yliopisto-opiskelijoiden sosiaalisen median käyttö, sosiaalinen verkostoitumien ja stereotypiat eri koulutusohjelmien opiskelijoista

Tämä diplomityö tutkii Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston opiskelijoiden sosiaalisen median palvelujen ja sovellusten käyttöä. Se tekee myös selvyyttä tavoista, joiden avulla opiskelijat muodostavat sosiaalisen verkostonsa muihin opiskelijoihin ja muihin ihmisiin. Se tutkii myös opiskelijoiden stereotypioita ja mielikuvia eri koulutusohjelmien opiskelijoista. Työn päätarkoitus on tutkia sosiaalisen median roolia opiskelijoiden elämässä. Tutkimustyö tehtiin verkossa täytettävällä kyselylomakkeella. Tutkimuksen tulokset esitellään työn loppupuoliskolla. Alkupuolisko esittelee sosiaalisen median käsitteitä ja palveluita sekä valaisee tietotekniikan roolia sosiaalisessa mediassa. Se käsittelee myös sosiaalista verkostoitumista opiskelijan näkökulmasta ja esittelee aikaisemmin tehtyjä tutkimuksia opiskelijoiden sosiaalisen median käytöstä.

Some advances in mathematical models for preference relations

Preference relations, and their modeling, have played a crucial role in both social sciences and applied mathematics. A special category of preference relations is represented by cardinal preference relations, which are nothing other than relations which can also take into account the degree of relation. Preference relations play a pivotal role in most of multi criteria decision making methods and in the operational research. This thesis aims at showing some recent advances in their methodology. Actually, there are a number of open issues in this field and the contributions presented in this thesis can be grouped accordingly. The first issue regards the estimation of a weight vector given a preference relation. A new and efficient algorithm for estimating the priority vector of a reciprocal relation, i.e. a special type of preference relation, is going to be presented. The same section contains the proof that twenty methods already proposed in literature lead to unsatisfactory results as they employ a conflicting constraint in their optimization model. The second area of interest concerns consistency evaluation and it is possibly the kernel of the thesis. This thesis contains the proofs that some indices are equivalent and that therefore, some seemingly different formulae, end up leading to the very same result. Moreover, some numerical simulations are presented. The section ends with some consideration of a new method for fairly evaluating consistency. The third matter regards incomplete relations and how to estimate missing comparisons. This section reports a numerical study of the methods already proposed in literature and analyzes their behavior in different situations. The fourth, and last, topic, proposes a way to deal with group decision making by means of connecting preference relations with social network analysis.

Eating disorders, weight perception, and dieting in adolescence

Background: Eating disorders are serious psychiatric disorders, which usually have their onset in adolescence. Body dissatisfaction and dieting, both common among adolescents, are recognised risk factors for eating disorders. The aim of the present study was to assess the prevalence of eating disorders in the general adolescent population, assess the risk of developing eating disorders in subgroups of dieters, and analyse longitudinal concomitants of incorrect weight perception. Method: A prospective follow-up study on 595 adolescents, aged 15 at baseline, was conducted in western Finland. The study comprised questionnaires directed at the whole study population and subsequent personal interviews with adolescents found to be screen-positive for eating disorders, at both baseline and three-year follow-up. Results: The lifetime prevalence rates for 18 year old females were 2.6 % for anorexia nervosa, 0.4 for bulimia nervosa, and 9.0 % for eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS). No prevalent case of DSM-IV eating disorders was found among the male participants. Eating disorders, as well as depressive symptoms, social anxiety, and low self-esteem, was more prevalent among females who perceived themselves as being overweight, despite being normal or underweight, when compared to females with a correct weight perception. An incorrect weight perception was associated in males with social anxiety. Female adolescents dieting due to psychological distress, rather than vanity or overweight, had a fifteen-fold risk of developing an eating disorder. Conclusions: Eating disorders are common among female adolescents, and adolescents choosing to diet due to psychological distress show a markedly increased risk of developing an eating disorder. Promotion of general well-being as well as the prevention of body dissatisfaction and misdirected dieting, accompanied by early detection and proper treatment of eating disorders, is needed to reduce the incidence of and facilitate recovery in adolescents suffering from eating disorders.

Asiakastyytyväisyyteen vaikuttavien tekijöiden tunnistaminen sosiaalisen median seurantapalvelun ja kriittisten tapausten tekniikan avulla

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on muodostaa liikkeenjohdon päätöksentekoa tukeva toimintatapa, jonka avulla pystytään keräämään ja suodattamaan sosiaalisesta mediasta olennainen asiakastyytyväisyyden muodostumiseen vaikuttava informaatio. Tavoitteena on myös täsmentää sosiaalisen median viestien tarkastelutapaa ja tarjota liikkeenjohdolle käytännönläheinen ja vaihtoehtoinen tiedonkeruumenetelmä perinteisten asiakastyytyväisyyskyselyiden rinnalle. Tutkimuksen case-yrityksenä käytetään Fox International Channels Oy:tä, joka alkuvuodesta 2012 hankki SuomiTV:n ja lanseerasi tämän tilalle uuden FOX-kanavan. Sosiaalisen median viestit kerätään sosiaalisen median seurannan avulla ja kerättyä aineistoa tarkastellaan kriittisten tapausten tekniikan avulla.Tämän tutkimuksen perusteella voidaan todeta, että on olemassa valtava määrä käsittelemätöntä tietoa, jota keräämällä, suodattamalla ja analysoimalla voidaan kerätä tavoitteita tukevaa relevanttia informaatiota. Tutkimuksessa tulee ilmi, että viestit sisältävät paljon ironiaa, slangia, sarkasmia ja metaforia, minkä takia automaattinen hakusanoihin perustuva seuranta- ja analysointipalvelu ei riitä syvällisen ymmärryksen luomiseen. Yrityksen ulkopuolinen tieto ja sosiaalisen median viestit ovat puhtaimmillaan hyvin tärkeää ulkoista informaatiota yrityksille, mitä hyväksikäyttämällä voidaan luoda kilpailuetua pidemmällä aikavälillä.

Monitieteinen seurantatutkimus kehitysvammaisten ihmisten elämästä

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Essays on auditor independence

Auditor independence is a cornerstone of the auditing profession and the basic principle that underpins the reputation of the auditing profession in the public eye. Indeed, it is the attribute most demanded from auditors by the public. Therefore, the sustainability of the auditing profession depends on how auditors can protect this principle. This dissertation consists of four interrelated essays concerned with auditor independence. Specifically, it examines situations that can threaten and impair auditor independence. In addition, this dissertation also examines several variables that may enhance and protect auditor independence. The first essay aims to examine the impact of social pressures occurring within audit firms on auditors’ judgment in the setting of a society with “high power distance” and “low individualism” cultural dimensions. The social pressures consisted of obedience pressure exerted by an auditor’s superior and conformity pressure exerted by an auditor’s colleague. Moreover, two moderating variables—a multi-dimensional professional commitment and locus of control—were included as moderator variables in the relationship between the social pressures faced by auditors and their judgment. The findings show that obedience and conformity pressures influence auditor judgment. Auditors who face the social pressures will make a judgment that may be even diametrically opposite to the independence principle. The findings also indicate that a multi-dimensional professional commitment and locus of control may potentially influence auditor judgment in a situation with social pressures. The second essay aims to investigate the association of advocacy and familiarity threats caused by auditor fee dependence and auditor tenure on auditor independence based on Finnish data, law, and auditing environment. This essay was motivated by the Green Paper on Audit Policy, published by the European Commission in 2010 that questions whether the maximum fee collected from a client should be regulated and whether consecutive assignments should be limited, among others. Contrary to popular belief, this essay does not find evidence that audit fees and long auditor tenure will jeopardise auditor independence. Therefore, the findings do not support policies to regulate auditor fees or limit auditor tenure in Finland. The third essay aims to examine the effect of client intimidation on auditor independence in an audit-client conflict situation. Intimidation threat is one of five independence threats that are explicitly referenced in the IFAC’s independence framework. Client intimidation was manifested in the client threatening to replace the auditor if the auditor did not adopt the client’s position. In addition, this essay examines the role of auditor’s perceived pressure and multi-dimensions of professional commitment as moderator variables. The findings suggest that auditors who experience client intimidation in an audit conflict situation are more likely to have their independence impaired than those who are in a similar situation but without client intimidation. Moreover, auditors who experience client intimidation perceive higher pressure than those who do not experience intimidation. Finally, auditors’ affective and continuance professional commitment dimensions moderate the relationship between auditors’ perceived pressures and auditor independence. The aim of the fourth essay is twofold. First, it aims to develop a scale for measuring auditors’ reputation awareness. Second, it aims to examine the correlation between the levels of auditor reputation awareness and auditor independence. A seven-item scale was developed as the reputation awareness scale. The findings indicate that the scale consists of one dimension. It also has a level of satisfactory reliability and a high level of validity. The findings show that there is a positive correlation between the level of auditors’ reputation awareness and auditor independence.