Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Height distributions of Scots pine sapling stands affected by retained tree and edge stand competition

Abstract

Calibrating predicted tree diameter distributions in Catalonia, Spain

Abstract

Turbokonetekniikan seminaari, kevätlukukausi 2003

Tämä opetusmoniste koostuu turbokonetekniikan seminaarin lukuvuonna 2002-2003 suorittaneiden perus- ja jatko-opiskelijoiden laatimista seminaariesitelmistä. Opetusmoniste koostuu seuraavista osista: Jani Ikonen: Materiaalin valinta kaasuturbiinin turbiiniin huomioiden uusimmat materiaalit. 20 sivua. Ikonen esittää työssään katsauksen materiaalien valintaan kaasuturbiinissa, korkean lämpötilan materiaalien tulevaisuudennäkymiin,korroosiolta ja korkeilta lämpötiloilta suojaaviin pinnoitteisiin sekä joihinkin teollisuuskaasuturbiinien komponenttien valmistusmenetelmiin. Jouni Ritvanen: Värähtelymittaukset ja niiden tulkinta. 19 sivua. Kaikki laitteet värähtelevät käydessään. Värähtelyä aiheutuu yleensä epätasapainosta, valmistus- tai asennusvirheistä sekä kuluneista tai muuten vaurioituneista osista. Ritvanen tarkastelee työssään värähtelyä, värähtelyn mittausta ja tuloksien tarkastelua. Jarkko Vanhanen: Vaaka-akselisen 3 MW:n tuuliturbiinin siipien perussuunnittelu Utön olosuhteisiin, 18 sivua Vanhanen mitoittaa työssään 3 MW:n tuulivoimalan Utön ulkosaariston olosuhteisiin. Tuuliturbiini on vaaka-akselinen ja 3 siipinen. Mitoituksessa käytetään Schmitzin menetelmää joka on tarkempi kuin Betzin kriteeri. Weibull-jakauman avulla lasketaan mitoituksella saadun turbiinin teho eri kuukausina. Lisäksi tarkastellaan huipun käyttöaikaa ja tuotettua energiamäärää. Jani Keränen:Kolmidimesionaalinen siipisolavirtaus aksiaaliturbiinissa. 12 sivua. Keränen käsittelee työssään kolmidimensionaalista virtausta aksiaalisessa turbokoneessa. Työssä luodaan kuva toisiovirtauksen pääkomponentteihin: hevosenkenkäpyörteeseen,kanavapyörteeseen, kulmapyörteisiin ja jättöreunapyörteisin. Työssä selitetään kyseisten pyörteiden aiheuttamien häviöiden alkuperää ja tuodaan esille joitain keinoja, joilla pyörteilyä hallitaan. Lisäksi aihetta on käsitelty suppeasti myös numeerisen virtauslaskennan (CFD:n) kannalta. Teemu Turunen-Saaresti: Radiaalikompressorin ajansuhteen tarkka CFD-laskenta. 15 sivua. Turunen-Saaresti on seminaarityössään laskenut ajansuhteen tarkalla CFD-laskennalla radiaalikompressorinkahdessa eri toimintapisteessä. Lasketut toimintapisteet ovat suunnittelupiste ja toimintapiste lähellä tukkeumaa. Ajansuhteen tarkassa laskennassa mallinnetaan koko kompressori ja kytketään pyörivät ja paikallaan olevat osat toisiinsa liukuhilatekniikan avulla. Laskettuja arvoja verrataan Virtaustekniikan laboratoriossa kyseisestä kompressorista tehtyihin mittaustuloksiin.

Size Effect and Notch Size Effect in Metal Fatigue

It is a well known phenomenon that the constant amplitude fatigue limit of a large component is lower than the fatigue limit of a small specimen made of the same material. In notched components the opposite occurs: the fatigue limit defined as the maximum stress at the notch is higher than that achieved with smooth specimens. These two effects have been taken into account in most design handbooks with the help of experimental formulas or design curves. The basic idea of this study is that the size effect can mainly be explained by the statistical size effect. A component subjected to an alternating load can be assumed to form a sample of initiated cracks at the end of the crack initiation phase. The size of the sample depends on the size of the specimen in question. The main objective of this study is to develop a statistical model for the estimation of this kind of size effect. It was shown that the size of a sample of initiated cracks shall be based on the stressed surface area of the specimen. In case of varying stress distribution, an effective stress area must be calculated. It is based on the decreasing probability of equally sized initiated cracks at lower stress level. If the distribution function of the parent population of cracks is known, the distribution of the maximum crack size in a sample can be defined. This makes it possible to calculate an estimate of the largest expected crack in any sample size. The estimate of the fatigue limit can now be calculated with the help of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. In notched components another source of size effect has to be taken into account. If we think about two specimens which have similar shape, but the size is different, it can be seen that the stress gradient in the smaller specimen is steeper. If there is an initiated crack in both of them, the stress intensity factor at the crack in the larger specimen is higher. The second goal of this thesis is to create a calculation method for this factor which is called the geometric size effect. The proposed method for the calculation of the geometric size effect is also based on the use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. It is possible to calculate an accurate value of the stress intensity factor in a non linear stress field using weight functions. The calculated stress intensity factor values at the initiated crack can be compared to the corresponding stress intensity factor due to constant stress. The notch size effect is calculated as the ratio of these stress intensity factors. The presented methods were tested against experimental results taken from three German doctoral works. Two candidates for the parent population of initiated cracks were found: the Weibull distribution and the log normal distribution. Both of them can be used successfully for the prediction of the statistical size effect for smooth specimens. In case of notched components the geometric size effect due to the stress gradient shall be combined with the statistical size effect. The proposed method gives good results as long as the notch in question is blunt enough. For very sharp notches, stress concentration factor about 5 or higher, the method does not give sufficient results. It was shown that the plastic portion of the strain becomes quite high at the root of this kind of notches. The use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics becomes therefore questionable.

Bonding of Composite Resin to Alumina and Zirconia Ceramics with Special Emphasis on Surface Conditioning and Use of Coupling Agents

Dental oxide ceramics have been inspired by their biocompability and mechanical properties which have made durable all-ceramic structures possible. Clinical longevity of the prosthetic structures is dependent on effective bonding with luting cements. As the initial shear bond strength values can be comparable with several materials and procedures, long-term durability is affected by ageing. Aims of the current study were: to measure the shear bond strength of resin composite-to-ceramics and to evaluate the longevity of the bond; to analyze factors affecting the bond, with special emphasis on: the form of silicatization of the ceramic surface; form of silanization; type of resin primer and the effect of the type of the resin composite luting cement; the effect of ageing in water was studied regarding its effect to the endurance of the bond. Ceramic substrates were alumina and yttrium stabilized zirconia. Ceramic conditioning methods included tribochemical silicatization and use of two silane couplings agents. A commercial silane primer was used as a control silane. Various combinations of conditioning methods, primers and resin cements were tested. Bond strengths were measured by shear bond strength method. The longevity of the bond was generally studied by thermocycling the materials in water. Additionally, in one of the studies thermal cycling was compared with long-term water storaging. Results were analysed statistically with ANOVA and Weibull analysis. Tribochemical treatment utilizing air pressure of 150 kPa resulted shear bond strengths of 11.2 MPa to 18.4 MPa and air pressure of 450 kPa 18.2 MPa to 30.5 MPa, respectively. Thermocycling of 8000 cycles or four years water storaging both decreased shear bond strength values to a range of 3.8 MPa to 7.2 MPa whereas initial situation varied from 16.8. Mpa to 23.0 MPa. The silane used in studies had no statistical significance. The use of primers without 10-MDP resulted spontaneous debonding during thermocycling or shear bond strengths below 5 MPa. As conclusion, the results showed superior long-term bonding with primers containing 10-MDP. Silicatization with silanizing showed improved initial shear bond strength values which considerably decreased with ageing in water. Thermal cycling and water storing for up to four years played the major role in reduction of bond strength, which could be due to thermal fatigue of the bonding interface and hydrolytic degradation of the silane coupled interface.