Determinants of Bone Strength and Predictors of Hip Fracture among Finnish Adults. Results from the Health 2000 Survey and the Mini-Finland Health Survey

The objective of this thesis was to identify the determinants of bone strength and predictors of hip fracture in representative samples of Finnish adults. A secondary objective was to construct a simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction over a 10-year follow-up period. The study was based on the Health 2000 Survey conducted during 2000 to 2001 (men and women aged 30 years or over, n=6 035) and the Mini-Finland Health Survey conducted during 1978 to 1980 (women aged 45 years or over, n=2 039). Study subjects participated in health interviews and comprehensive health examination. In the Health 2000 Survey, bone strength was assessed by means of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS). The follow-up information about hip fractures was drawn from the National Hospital Discharge Register. In this study, age, weight, height, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (S-25(OH)D), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption as well as menopause and eventual HRT in women were found to be associated with calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and speed of sound (SOS). Parity was associated with a decreased risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Age, height, weight or waist circumference, quantitative ultrasound index (QUI), S-25(OH)D and fall-related factors, such as maximal walking speed, Parkinson’s disease, and the number of prescribed CNS active medication were significant independent predictors of hip fracture. At the population level, the incremental value of QUS appeared to be minor in hip fracture prediction when the fall-related risk factors were taken into account. A simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction presented in this study was based on readily available factors (age, gender, height, waist circumference, and fallrelated factors). Prospective studies are needed to test this model in patient-based study populations.

Patient-perceived health-related quality of life during recovery after total hip arthroplasty – a 6-month follow-up study

Potilaiden käsitys terveyteen liittyvästä elämänlaadusta lonkan tekonivelleikkauksen jälkeisenä toipumisaikana – kuuden kuukauden seurantatutkimus Tässä kaksivaiheisessa seurantatutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin potilaiden käsitystä terveyteen liittyvästä elämänlaadusta lonkan tekonivelleikkauksen jälkeisenä toipumisaikana. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa tarkoituksena oli sekä kuvailla potilaiden kokemuksia potilaana olosta, saamastaan hoidosta ja terveyspalveluorganisaatiosta että analysoida aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella leikkauksen tuloksia potilaan kannalta. Toisessa vaiheessa tarkoituksena oli arvioida potilaiden kokemaa elämänlaatua leikkauksen jälkeen, ja sitä vaikuttivatko primaaritulokset (fyysinen toimintakyky, kipu, ahdistus) tai taloudelliset seuraukset (potilaiden itsensämaksamat kustannukset, palvelujen käyttö) terveyteen liittyvään elämänlaatuun. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli löytää mahdolliset kriittiset ajankohdat tai tekijät, jotka saattavat hidastaa toipumista ja siten huonontaa potilaiden elämänlaatua. Tätä tietoa voidaan käyttää hoitotyössä kun suunnitellaan sopivaa hoitoa ja tukea toipumisajalle. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa primaarileikkaukseen tulevat potilaat (n = 17) kuvailivat teemahaastatteluissa kokemuksiaan kahdesti leikkauksen jälkeen. Haastatteluaineisto analysoitiin induktiivisella sisällönanalyysilla. Lisäksi 17 tutkimusartikkelista analysoitiin deduktiivisella sisällönanalyysilla leikkauksen tuloksia potilaalle, tuloksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä ja käytetyt tutkimusmetodit. Toisessa vaiheessa primaari- tai revisioleikkaukseen tulevat potilaat (n = 100) arvioivat leikkauksen tuloksia kuuden kuukauden ajan leikkauksen jälkeen: terveyteen liittyvää elämänlaatua, primaarituloksia ja taloudellisia seurauksia. Aineisto kerättiin erilaisilla mittareilla: Sickness Impact Profile, Finnish Version, Stait-Trait Anxiety Inventory, ja Numeric Rating Scale. Lisäksi käytettiin tätä tutkimusta varten tehtyjä kyselylomakkeita: Fyysinen toimintakyky-mittari, Palvelujen käyttö-mittari ja Kustannusmittari. Tutkimuksen toiseen vaiheen tulokset analysoitiin tilastollisilla menetelmillä. Potilaiden terveyteen liittyvä elämänlaatu parani ja kipu lievittyi leikkauksen jälkeen ja fyysinen toimintakyky lisääntyi toipumisaikana. Positiivisista muutoksista huolimatta potilaat kokivat ahdistusta samassa määrin kuin ennen leikkaustakin. Palvelujen käyttö vaihteli toipumisajan kuluessa ja potilaiden maksamissa kustannuksissa oli suuria vaihteluita. Fyysisen toimintakyvyn lisääntyminen ja kivun lieveneminen paransivat terveyteen liittyvää elämänlaatua. Sen sijaan huonompi elämänlaatu toipumisaikana oli yhteydessä suurempaan palvelujen käyttöön, kun taas kustannuksilla ei ollut yhteyttä elämänlaatuun. Potilaiden ominaispiirteet tulisi ottaa enemmän huomioon suunniteltaessa sopivaa leikkauksenjälkeistä hoitoa ja tukea. Potilaat tarvitsevat yksilöllisiä ohjeita, sillä monet taustatekijät (esim. ikä, sukupuoli, preoperatiivinen kipu, siviilisääty, ja leikkaustyyppi) vaikuttavat toipumiseen.

Reduced simple ratio better than NDVI for estimating LAI in Finnish pine and spruce stands

Abstract

Methods of Jet to Wire Speed Ratio Determination and Its Effect in Paper and Board Manufacture

Suihku/viira-nopeussuhde on perälaatikon huulisuihkun ja viiran välinen nopeusero. Se vaikuttaa suuresti paperin ja kartongin loppuominaisuuksiin, kuten formaatioon sekä kuituorientaatioon ja näin ollen paperin lujuusominaisuuksiin. Tämän johdosta on erityisen tärkeää tietää todellinen suihku/viira-nopeussuhde paperin- ja kartonginvalmistuksessa. Perinteinen suihku/viira-nopeussuhteen määritysmenetelmä perustuu perälaatikon kokonaispaineeseen. Tällä menetelmällä kuitenkin todellinen huulisuihkun nopeus saattaa usein jäädä tietämättä johtuen mahdollisesta virheellisestä painemittarin kalibroinnista sekä laskuyhtälön epätarkkuuksista. Tämän johdosta on kehitetty useita reaaliaikaisia huulisuihkun mittausmenetelmiä. Perälaatikon parametrien optimaaliset asetukset ovat mahdollista määrittää ja ylläpitää huulisuihkun nopeuden “on-line” määrityksellä. Perälaatikon parametrejä ovat mm. huulisuihku, huuliaukon korkeusprofiili, reunavirtaukset ja syöttövirtauksen tasaisuus. Huulisuihkun nopeuden on-line mittauksella paljastuu myös muita perälaatikon ongelmakohtia, kuten mekaaniset viat, joita on perinteisesti tutkittu aikaa vievillä paperin ja kartongin lopputuoteanalyyseillä.

Ratio in assensum divinae veritatis revelatae deducta

Invocatio: Dirigente Jesu.

Surgically-treated Hip Fracture in older People. With Special Emphasis on Mortality Analysis

Hip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Cervical and trochanteric fractures have a different morphometry, surgical treatment, and outcome. Polypharmacy, common in older people, is associated with increased mortality. The risk factors for mortality can be identified based on cause-of-death analysis. In this population-based study, 461 older, surgically in 1999-2000 treated hip fracture patients were enrolled. Incidence, morphometry, medication, mortality, and cause-of-death were analysed. Hip fractures were most commonly sustained by women, occurred mostly indoors, and often in institutions. One in four patients had sustained a previous fracture. Routine clinical radiographs revealed no differences in the hip geometry between hip fracture types. Age-adjusted mortality was higher in men than in women during the follow-up. Chronic lung disease and male sex were predictors of mortality after cervical fracture. In men, potent anticholinergics were associated with excess age-adjusted mortality. Men were more likely to die from circulatory disease and dementia after hip fracture than women. Mortality after hip fracture was 3-fold higher than that of the general population, including every cause-of-death class. Fracture prevention in institutions and homes, indoor safety measures, and treatment of chronic lung diseases should be encouraged. Hip morphometry analyses require more accurate measures than that provided by routine radiographs. Careful use of potent anticholinergics may reduce mortality. Compared to the general population, excess mortality after hip fracture was evident up to 9 years after hip fracture. Cause-of-death analysis indicates that all major comorbidities require optimal treatment after hip fracture surgery.

Fractures in older people - incidence, predictors and consequences

In older populations, fractures are common and the consequences of fractures may be serious both for an individual and for society. However, information is scarce about the incidence, predictors and consequences of fractures in population-based unselected cohorts including both men and women and a long follow-up. The objective of this study was to analyse the incidence and predictors of fractures as well as functional decline and excess mortality due to fractures, among 482 men and 695 women aged 65 or older in the municipality of Lieto, Finland from 1991 until 2002. In analyses, Poisson’s, Cox proportional Hazards and Cumulative Logistic regression models were used for the control of several confounding variables. During the 12-year follow-up with a total of 10 040 person-years (PY), 307 (26%) persons sustained altogether 425 fractures of which 77% were sustained by women. The total incidence of fractures was 53.4 per 1000 PY (95% confidence intervals [95% CI]: 47.9 - 59.5) in women and 24.9 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 20.4 - 30.4) in men. The incidence rates of fractures at any sites and hip fractures were associated with increasing age. No significant changes in the ageadjusted incidence rates of fractures were found in either gender during the 12-year follow-up. The predictors of fractures varied by gender. In multivariate analyses, reduced handgrip strength and body mass index (BMI) lower than 30 in women and a large number of depressive symptoms in men were independent predictors of fractures. A compression fracture in one or more thoracic or upper lumbar vertebras on chest radiography at baseline was associated with subsequent fractures in both genders. Lower body fractures independently predicted both short- (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline in mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) performance during the 8-year follow-up. Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during longterm follow-up. In the 12-year follow-up, hip fractures in men (Hazard Ratio [HR] 8.1, 95% CI: 4.4-14.9) and in women (HR 3.0, 95% CI: 1.9-4.9), and fractures at the proximal humerus in men (HR 5.4, 95% CI: 1.6-17.7) were independently associated with excess mortality. In addition, leisure time inactivity in physical exercise predicted independently both functional decline and excess mortality. Fractures are common among older people posing serious individual consequences. Further studies about the effectiveness of preventing falls and fractures as well as improving care and rehabilitation after fractures are needed.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Primary and Revision Hip Replacement. A University Hospital Database and Registry Study

Large-headed total hip arthroplasty (THA) and hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA) with metal-on-metal (MoM) bearings became popular during the last decade. Recently, it has become evident that the large-head MoM hip implants are associated with increased revision rates despite their theoretical advantages. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the early results of primary MoM hip replacements and of acetabular revisions. I analyzed retrospectively the results of four MoM implant designs and the survival rate of acetabular revisions with impaction bone grafting, as documented in the Turku University Hospital database. Further, I evaluated the correlation between femoral head size and dislocation rate, and used the Finnish Arthroplasty Register data to compare the survival of three large-head MoM THAs to analogous HRAs. The early results for the Magnum M2A–ReCap THA were good. A larger head size decreased the risk of dislocation. Articular surface replacement (ASR) THA yielded inferior results compared to analogous HRA. For two other designs the results were similar. The R3–Synergy THA yielded inferior results compared to the reference implants. The survival of acetabular reconstructions with impaction bone grafting was inferior compared to previous reports. In conclusion, the early results of the Biomet ReCap–Magnum design were promising, and large head sizes decreased the dislocation rate. The survival of different MoM hip implant designs varied. The survival of new designs and techniques may be inferior to those reported by the clinics where implants are developed. An important caveat is that early promising results of new devices may rapidly worsen. New implants need to be introduced in a controlled fashion to the market; here, arthroplasty registers are a valuable tool that needs to be used.

Epistolarum conscribendarum forma & ratio

Dedikaatio: Johannes Cajanus, Jacobus Frosterus, Laurentius Lithovius, Olaus Lauraeus, Jacobus Falander, Johannes Laibeck, Georgius Aenelius, Johannes Forsman, Abraham Falander, Johannes Argillander.