Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Portfolion allokointi Euroopan markkinoilla: toimiala- vai maakohtainen strategia?

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää, kumpi on suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta tehokkaampi tapa allokoida portfolio Euroopan alueelle, maa- vai toimialalähestymistapa. Tätä tutkitaan käyttämällä aineistoa vuosilta 1999-2003. Tilanne ennen vuotta 1999 on aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella melko hyvin selvillä, joten tutkimus antaa tuoretta tietoa siitä, miten poikkeuksellinen tuottohistoria vaikuttaa portfolion allokointiin. Aihetta tutkitaan käyttämällä 16 Euroopan alueen maaindeksiä ja kymmentä toimialaindeksiä. Indeksit ovat logaritmisia nettotuottoindeksejä, ja niistä on laskettu korrelaatiot, keskihajonnat sekä tehokkaat rintamat. Indekseistä on myös muodostettu 11 esimerkkiportfoliota, joiden avulla on analysoitu erilaisten portfolioiden suorituskykyä. Tuloksien mukaan maakohtaisella sijoitusstrategialla on etenkin laskevilla markkinoilla mahdollisuus saavuttaa parempi riski/tuotto-suhde, vaikka sijoitettaisiin pelkästään toimialoihin, joita yleisen käsityksen mukaan kannattaa suosia laskevilla markkinoilla. Toimialasijoittaminen taas tarjoaa hieman parempia mahdollisuuksia portfolion hajautukseen. Hajautuksen hyödyt suomalaiselle sijoittajalle tulivat tutkimuksessa selvästi esiin. Toimialasijoittamisesta on suomalaiselle sijoittajalle erityistä hyötyä hajautuksen kannalta, koska näin voidaan valita toimialoja, joiden paino Suomen markkinaindeksissä on vähäinen.

Multi-sensor Simultaneous Localization and Mapping

Simultaneous localization and mapping(SLAM) is a very important problem in mobile robotics. Many solutions have been proposed by different scientists during the last two decades, nevertheless few studies have considered the use of multiple sensors simultane¬ously. The solution is on combining several data sources with the aid of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Two approaches are proposed. The first one is to use the ordinary EKF SLAM algorithm for each data source separately in parallel and then at the end of each step, fuse the results into one solution. Another proposed approach is the use of multiple data sources simultaneously in a single filter. The comparison of the computational com¬plexity of the two methods is also presented. The first method is almost four times faster than the second one.

Perspektivmöten i skola och handledning : lärares tankar om specialpedagogisk handledning

To create a more inclusive school, an increase in multidisciplinary cooperation is needed. One possible form of collaboration could encompass the special education teacher taking on the role of a consultant for other teachers in need of support in working with heterogeneous groups of pupils. Previous research shows that special education teachers see the role as consultant as diffuse and complex. The overarching aim of the present study involves deepening the knowledge on how consultation in a special educational context can be understood and developed based on teachers’ descriptions on this particular form of activity interpreted against various perspectives on consultation. The study is qualitative in nature and rests on a hermeneutic interpretive research tradition in combination with an abductive approach. The theoretical framework consists of two different approaches to consultation: the directive and the non-directive approach. The approaches differ regarding particular emphasis on advice and reflection during the consultation and with respect to who or what should be the focus of the consultation. The two approaches are here studied through various theories such as social learning theory, Bruner's theory of scaffolding, Roger’s humanist psychology, and constructivism. Semi-structured interviews were held with eighteen special education teachers (n=9) and class teachers (n=9) working in the compulsory school. The overall interpretation of the results shows that special education consultation can be understood as three different types of consultation. Consultation as counseling which harmonizes with the directive perspective on consultation is the most prominent type. In the consultation as counseling conversation, the special educational knowledge transfer is central and the focus is placed on the pupil. Although special education knowledge transfer emerges as a unique aspect of special education consultation, there are several inherent challenges in this type of consultation that can be addressed in that teachers also describe two other types of consultation. In the reflective consultation, there is a move away from the pupil focus and toward a focus on the class teacher and the use of reflection. The reflective consultation harmonizes with the non-directive approach to consultation. This type of consultation does not as of yet have a prominent place in the Finland-Swedish school context and at this stage it is not seen as a legitimate type of consultation according to the teachers’ descriptions. Despite this, certain aspects of the reflective conversation could be given more space in the development of consultation within special educational contexts. The co-operative consultation is characterized by the teachers acting as teammates and using professional exchange as a strategy for consultation. Both teachers' knowledge is seen as central, and rather than the special education teacher acting as the expert and moderator, the teachers control the consultation together and jointly move the work along. The co-operative consultation enables the focus to move from the pupil toward the context, which can lead to the development of inclusive practices. The results indicate that this type of consultation holds potential in the development of special educational consultation that takes place between equal colleagues. The co-operative consultation opens up for a third collaborative approach to consultation, where aspects of the directive and non-directive perspective can merge and develop. The thesis concludes with the proposal that special pedagogical consultation can be understood from an integrated perspective. The characteristics of the consultation can vary depending on the type of problem or situation, while co-operative consultation can be seen as the ideal as equal colleagues meet in consultation conversations. In order to develop the co-operative consultation, both teachers are required to have knowledge of consultation as a practice, to be part of a collaborative school climate, and that teachers are provided with enough time to take part in consultations.

Innovation Project Portfolio Management

Companies today are forced to innovate in order to remain within business. Such innovation projects undertaken by the companies are defined in this study as creative ideas which have been managed through “Stage-Gate” innovation process. This process is used to manage innovation projects as they proceed from being newly created to ready for launching/implementing. This has ensured that the companies manage the innovation project right. However, with so many new creative ideas the companies can come up within limited resources, the companies must rely on Innovation Project Portfolio Management (IPPM) to ensure that they are managing only the right innovation projects. Although, there are many tools and techniques available for use within Project Portfolio Management, there is still no consensus on which are the most effective and no standard framework has been established especially for IPPM. Thus, this study proposes a practical framework for which individual innovative organization can follow as a guideline to manage its innovation project portfolio. The study theoretically first addresses the key differences between project portfolio management of innovation projects and other traditional projects - one of which is the stage nature of innovation projects due to their unclear objectives from the beginning compare to clearly established objectives of traditional projects. Secondly, different tools and techniques which can be used are examined based on the three goals of IPPM: (1) Maximizing the Value of Innovation Project Portfolio: Financial Methods, Decision Trees, Scoring Models and Checklists; (2) Balancing Innovation Project Portfolio: Visual Representations; and (3) Aligning Innovation Project Portfolio with Strategy: Bottom-Up (Scoring Models with Strategic Criteria) and Top-Down (Strategic Buckets). Finally, the two approaches in which IPPM can be integrated with Stage-Gate innovation process are discussed: (1) Gates- Dominated; and (2) Portfolio Reviews-Dominated. Practically, this study investigates IPPM of a case organization, and through analysis of the case study results proposes a practical framework for case organization to improve its current management of innovation project portfolio. This framework is then generalized to propose a final practical framework or guideline for which an innovative organization can follow to manage its innovation project portfolio.

Christlich-religiöse Textwelt als translatorisch-hermeneutischer Gegenstand Gegenstandsbeschreibung und Herangehensweisen

Tämä teorialähtöinen, hermeneuttinen tutkimus sijoittuu käännöstieteen sekä uskonnon- ja kielifilosofian rajapintaan. Tutkimuksessa kuvataan kristinuskon tekstimaailmaa relevantin tulkintakehyksen kautta sekä esitetään tekstimaailman tulkintaan soveltuva lähestymistapa ammattikääntäjän eli välittävän vastaanottajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimus pureutuu käännösprosessin hermeneutiikkaan eli lähdetekstin ja sen maailman tulkintaan, ymmärtämiseen ja selittämiseen liittyviin aspekteihin. Tutkimuksessa ei esitetä käännösratkaisuja. Tutkimus nostaa esiin filosofisen ja teologisen hermeneutiikan peruskysymyksiä. Niitä ovat Raamatun tekstien vaikutushistoria, erilaiset todellisuus- ja kielikäsitykset, kirkon oppi, teologian pääsuuntaukset, uskonnolliset yhteisöt ja niiden perinteet, inhimillinen kulttuuri ja aika. Ne ovat ulottuvuuksia, jotka vaikuttavat kääntäjän tekstin- ja maailmantulkintaan ja vaativat laajojen kontekstien huomioonottamista sekä lähestymistä monista eri näkökulmista. Ludwig Wittgensteinin myöhäisfilosofiaan liittyvän kielipelin idea tarjoaa ajatusmallin, jonka avulla uskonnon käsite-, merkki- ja tekstimaailmalle voidaan luoda moninäkökulmainen tulkintakehys. Kielipelin käsitettä käytetään tässä tutkimuksessa tekstien samankaltaisuutta ja erilaisuutta kokoavana järjestelmänä, joka toimii intratekstuaalisesti eli sillä on omat pelisääntönsä, tulkinnan lähteensä sekä tunnistettava identiteetti. Järjestelmän keskiössä ovat uskonnon konstituioivat käsitteet ja kertomukset, jotka ovat muiden tulkintojen eli metatekstien lähde. Kääntäjän varsinaisina tulkintakohteina ovat metatekstit, eivät raamatunkääntämiseen liittyvät kysymykset suoranaisesti. Tutkimuksessa luodaan kuitenkin tulkintamalli, jonka mukaan metatekstejä ja raamatun tekstejä luetaan rinnakkain. Ymmärtäminen ja ongelmanratkaisu rakentuvat tekstuaalisen kommunikaation pohjalta. Tekstejä luetaan sekä sääntöteorian että narratiivisen teorian valossa. Kertomus puhuttelee vastaanottajaa eri tavalla kuin sääntö. Tulkintamallissa yhdistyvät sekä analyyttinen että luovan mielikuvituksen sallima lukutapa. Molemmat toimivat yhdessä kääntäjän tekstin- merkin- ja maailmantulkinnan apuna. Tutkimuksessa pohditaan myös tekstiteorettisia kysymyksiä, tekstin ja merkin käsitteitä sekä niiden toimintadynamiikkaa. Tulkinnan mekanismi esitetään semioosin käsitteen avulla. Teksti määritellään heuristiseksi ja eksemplaariseksi kuvaukseksi maailmasta, ja se edustaa vain osaa tulkintakokonaisuudesta. Kääntäjän hermeneuttinen kenttä ulotetaan tekstinulkoiseen maailmaan, käytäntöön ja elämänmuotoon.

Stability Analysis in Multicriteria Discrete Portfolio Optimization.

Almost every problem of design, planning and management in the technical and organizational systems has several conflicting goals or interests. Nowadays, multicriteria decision models represent a rapidly developing area of operation research. While solving practical optimization problems, it is necessary to take into account various kinds of uncertainty due to lack of data, inadequacy of mathematical models to real-time processes, calculation errors, etc. In practice, this uncertainty usually leads to undesirable outcomes where the solutions are very sensitive to any changes in the input parameters. An example is the investment managing. Stability analysis of multicriteria discrete optimization problems investigates how the found solutions behave in response to changes in the initial data (input parameters). This thesis is devoted to the stability analysis in the problem of selecting investment project portfolios, which are optimized by considering different types of risk and efficiency of the investment projects. The stability analysis is carried out in two approaches: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative approach describes the behavior of solutions in conditions with small perturbations in the initial data. The stability of solutions is defined in terms of existence a neighborhood in the initial data space. Any perturbed problem from this neighborhood has stability with respect to the set of efficient solutions of the initial problem. The other approach in the stability analysis studies quantitative measures such as stability radius. This approach gives information about the limits of perturbations in the input parameters, which do not lead to changes in the set of efficient solutions. In present thesis several results were obtained including attainable bounds for the stability radii of Pareto optimal and lexicographically optimal portfolios of the investment problem with Savage's, Wald's criteria and criteria of extreme optimism. In addition, special classes of the problem when the stability radii are expressed by the formulae were indicated. Investigations were completed using different combinations of Chebyshev's, Manhattan and Hölder's metrics, which allowed monitoring input parameters perturbations differently.

Lean Methods and Digital Technologies in Healtchare

The experiences of several healthcare organizations were considered to distinguish the most frequently used lean tools, the success and failure factors, and the obstacles that may appear while implementing lean. As a result, two approaches to “go lean” were defined, and analyzed from the prospective of the applicability to healthcare processes. Industrialization of healthcare was studied, and the most promising digital technology tools to improve healthcare process were highlighted. Finally, the analysis of healthcare challenges and feasible ways to address them was conducted and presented as the main result of this work. The possible ways of implementation of the findings and limitations were described in the conclusion.

Cost Reduction of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines

Electrical machine drives are the most electrical energy-consuming systems worldwide. The largest proportion of drives is found in industrial applications. There are, however many other applications that are also based on the use of electrical machines, because they have a relatively high efficiency, a low noise level, and do not produce local pollution. Electrical machines can be classified into several categories. One of the most commonly used electrical machine types (especially in the industry) is induction motors, also known as asynchronous machines. They have a mature production process and a robust rotor construction. However, in the world pursuing higher energy efficiency with reasonable investments not every application receives the advantage of using this type of motor drives. The main drawback of induction motors is the fact that they need slipcaused and thus loss-generating current in the rotor, and additional stator current for magnetic field production along with the torque-producing current. This can reduce the electric motor drive efficiency, especially in low-speed, low-power applications. Often, when high torque density is required together with low losses, it is desirable to apply permanent magnet technology, because in this case there is no need to use current to produce the basic excitation of the machine. This promotes the effectiveness of copper use in the stator, and further, there is no rotor current in these machines. Again, if permanent magnets with a high remanent flux density are used, the air gap flux density can be higher than in conventional induction motors. These advantages have raised the popularity of PMSMs in some challenging applications, such as hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), wind turbines, and home appliances. Usually, a correctly designed PMSM has a higher efficiency and consequently lower losses than its induction machine counterparts. Therefore, the use of these electrical machines reduces the energy consumption of the whole system to some extent, which can provide good motivation to apply permanent magnet technology to electrical machines. However, the cost of high performance rare earth permanent magnets in these machines may not be affordable in many industrial applications, because the tight competition between the manufacturers dictates the rules of low-cost and highly robust solutions, where asynchronous machines seem to be more feasible at the moment. Two main electromagnetic components of an electrical machine are the stator and the rotor. In the case of a conventional radial flux PMSM, the stator contains magnetic circuit lamination and stator winding, and the rotor consists of rotor steel (laminated or solid) and permanent magnets. The lamination itself does not significantly influence the total cost of the machine, even though it can considerably increase the construction complexity, as it requires a special assembly arrangement. However, thin metal sheet processing methods are very effective and economically feasible. Therefore, the cost of the machine is mainly affected by the stator winding and the permanent magnets. The work proposed in this doctoral dissertation comprises a description and analysis of two approaches of PMSM cost reduction: one on the rotor side and the other on the stator side. The first approach on the rotor side includes the use of low-cost and abundant ferrite magnets together with a tooth-coil winding topology and an outer rotor construction. The second approach on the stator side exploits the use of a modular stator structure instead of a monolithic one. PMSMs with the proposed structures were thoroughly analysed by finite element method based tools (FEM). It was found out that by implementing the described principles, some favourable characteristics of the machine (mainly concerning the machine size) will inevitable be compromised. However, the main target of the proposed approaches is not to compete with conventional rare earth PMSMs, but to reduce the price at which they can be implemented in industrial applications, keeping their dimensions at the same level or lower than those of a typical electrical machine used in the industry at the moment. The measurement results of the prototypes show that the main performance characteristics of these machines are at an acceptable level. It is shown that with certain specific actions it is possible to achieve a desirable efficiency level of the machine with the proposed cost reduction methods.

Determining vehicle drivetrain dynamics using system identification

Target of this book is to propose an approach for modelling drivetrain dynamics in order to design further a vibration control system of a hybrid bus. In this thesis two approaches are examined and compared. First model is obtained by theoretical means: drivetrain is represented as a system of rotating masses, which motion is described with differential equations. Second model is obtained using system identification method: mathematical description of the dynamic behavior of a system is formed based on measured input (torque) and output (speed) data. Then two models are compared and an optimal approach is suggested.

Cross Listing of a Finnish Company on an Exchange in the United States of America

Finnish companies cross listing in the United States is an exceptional phenomenon. This study examines the cross listing decision, cross listing choice and cross listing process with associated challenges and critical factors. The aim is to create an in-depth understanding of the cross listing process and the required financial information. Based on that, the aim is to establish the process phases with the challenges and the critical factors that ought to be considered be- fore establishing the process plus re-evaluated and further considered at points in time during the process. The empirical part of this study is conducted as a qualitative study. The research data was collected through the adoption of two approaches, which are the interview approach and the textual data approach. The interviews were conducted with Finnish practitioners in the field of accounting and finance. The textual data was from publicly available publications of this phenomenon by the two BIG5 accounting companies worldwide. The results of this study demonstrate the benefits of cross listing in the U.S. are the better growth opportunities, the reduction of cost of capital and the production of higher quality financial information. In the decision making process companies should assess whether the benefits exceed the increased costs, the pressure for performance, the uncertainty of market recognition and the requirements of management. The exchange listing is seen as the most favourable cross listing choice for Finnish companies. The establishment of the processes for producing reliable, transparent and timely financial information was seen as both highly critical and very challenging. The critical success factors relating to the cross listing phases are the assessment and planning as well as the right mix of experiences and expertise. The timing plays important role in the process. The results mainly corroborate the literature concerning cross listing decision and choice. This study contributes to the literature on the cross listing process offering a useful model for the phases of the cross listing process.

Increased profitability and efficiency by improving the Meetings & Events Category S2P-process – Case Company

The purpose of this research was to examine the most optimal way to arrange meetings and events management and source to pay –process in a global company. The research is a qualitative multi-method case study and is a commission from a global company. The theoretical framework of this research structures around two approaches. First approach focus on a purchasing strategy and management that shows the current role of procure-ment and introduce different ways to organize purchasing functions. Second approach focus on purchasing process management and improvement methods. Annual spend analyze, external and internal interviews and internal survey were done to gain compre-hensive knowledge about the current state of operations and possible solutions. Gathered data were then combined to theoretical framework in order to create optimal solution for the case company. Based on the research a source to pay –process and global policy for meeting and event category was created. The solution includes all relevant matters that are needed in order to secure efficient and profitable operations. The results show that optimal way to arrange meetings and events structures around standardized source to pay –processes, central-ized procurement, preferred supplier and clearly defined roles and responsibilities be-tween different stakeholders.

Two Cultures of Arts Education, Finland and Canada? An integrated View

Taidekasvatuksen kaksi kulttuuria, Suomi ja Kanada? Integroitu näkemys Tutkimuksessa kuvataan kanadalaisen Learning Through The Arts –pedagogiikan mukainen suomalainen kokeiluhanke, jonka aikana taiteilija–opettaja-parit opettivat yhdessä eri oppiaineita koululuokille: esim. matematiikkaa tanssien, biologiaa maalaten tai yhdistäen eri taiteenlajeja projektimuotoiseen oppimiseen. Hanketta arvioitaessa nousee esille, ei niinkään yksittäisten taiteilijoiden ja opettajien toiminta, vaan pikemminkin Kanadan ja Suomen rakenteelliset sekä kulttuuriset eroavuudet. Tutkimus sivuaa myös Suomessa käytävää keskustelua taiteen hyödyllisyydestä ja pohtii samalla taito- ja taideaineiden asemaa koulussa. Työn teoreettisessa osassa integroidaan opetussuunnitelmateoriaa, kasvatuksen historiaa ja filosofiaa, tähdentäen taidekasvatuksen merkitystä osana koko ihmisen kasvatusta. Opetussuunnitelmateorian osalta tarkastellaan romanttista ja klassista opetussuunnitelmaa, jotka eroavat toisistaan menetelmiensä, sisältöjensä, tavoitteidensa sekä arvioinnin osalta. Ns. kovat ja pehmeät aineet tai matemaattis-luonnontieteelliset aineet vastakohtanaan humanismi, voidaan ymmärtää sekä historiallisia että epistemologisia taustojaan vasten. Pepperin maailmanhypoteesien mukaisesti on kasvatuksen ongelmien ratkaisemiseksi hahmotettavissa neljä selvästi toisistaan eroavaa lähestymistapaa: formismi; organisismi; mekanisismi; sekä kontekstualismi. Kantin filosofiaan viitaten tutkimus puolustaa käsitystä taiteesta rationaalisena ja propositionaalisena kokonaisuutena, joka ei ole vain kommunikaation väline, vaan yksi todellisuuden kohtaamisen lajeista, tiedon ja etiikan rinnalla. Näin ajateltuna taito- ja taidekasvatuksen tulisi olla luonteeltaan aina myös kulttuurikasvatusta. Tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella voidaan väittää, että moniammatillinen yhteistyö monipuolistaa koulun opetusta. Mikäli huolehditaan siitä, että taiteilijat saavat riittävästi koulutusta opettamiseen liittyvissä asioissa, on mahdollista käyttää taiteilijoita opettajien rinnalla koulutyössä.

Colligation and Cross Moment-Based Approaches for Independent Component Analysis

Diplomityössä on käsitelty uudenlaisia menetelmiä riippumattomien komponenttien analyysiin(ICA): Menetelmät perustuvat colligaatioon ja cross-momenttiin. Colligaatio menetelmä perustuu painojen colligaatioon. Menetelmässä on käytetty kahden tyyppisiä todennäköisyysjakaumia yhden sijasta joka perustuu yleiseen itsenäisyyden kriteeriin. Työssä on käytetty colligaatio lähestymistapaa kahdella asymptoottisella esityksellä. Gram-Charlie ja Edgeworth laajennuksia käytetty arvioimaan todennäköisyyksiä näissä menetelmissä. Työssä on myös käytetty cross-momentti menetelmää joka perustuu neljännen asteen cross-momenttiin. Menetelmä on hyvin samankaltainen FastICA algoritmin kanssa. Molempia menetelmiä on tarkasteltu lineaarisella kahden itsenäisen muuttajan sekoituksella. Lähtö signaalit ja sekoitetut matriisit ovattuntemattomia signaali lähteiden määrää lukuunottamatta. Työssä on vertailtu colligaatio menetelmään ja sen modifikaatioita FastICA:an ja JADE:en. Työssä on myös tehty vertailu analyysi suorituskyvyn ja keskusprosessori ajan suhteen cross-momenttiin perustuvien menetelmien, FastICA:n ja JADE:n useiden sekoitettujen parien kanssa.