Reaalioptioiden ja binomimallm hyväksikäyttö strategisten tutkimus ja tuotekehitysinvestointien arvioimisessa

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia ja analysoida kirjallisuuden pohjalta reaalioptioteoriaa ja reaalioptioiden arvonmääritystapana binomimallia. Erityisenä painona tutkimuksessa oli reaalioptioiden hyväksikäyttö strategiaan ja tutkimus- ja tuotekehitysinvestointeihin. Tutkielma on toteutettu kirjallisuustutkimuksena. Tutkimusmetodologia on käsiteanalyyttinen. Lähdeaineistona on käytetty ulkomaisia tieteellisen aikakausijulkaisujen artikkeleita ja reaalioptioihin liittyviä kirjoja. Tutkielman tarkoituksena oli keskittyä reaalioptioteorian ja binomimallin ymmärtämiseen, perusteisiin ja käsitteistöön. Reaalioptiot tuovat hankkeiden arvonmääritykseen joustavuuden komponentin. Nykyajan kilpailullisilla markkinoilla on lisääntyvässä määrin epävarmuutta. Epävarmuuden hyödyntäminen on reaalioptioajattelun lähtökohta. Binomimalli on yksi tapa määrittää arvo reaalioptioille ja tähän malliin paneudutaan tutkielmassa syvemmin.

Epävarmuuden mallintaminen investointilaskelmissa ja irtautumispäätöksen ajoittaminen: Case Paroc

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu epävarmuuden mallintamista investointilaskelmissa. Kirjallisuuden perusteella luotiin prosessimalli, jolla voidaan strukturoidusti tehdä yritysinvestointi- tai yritysirtaantumispäätös. Malli koostuu neljästä päävaiheesta, mutta pääpainopiste mallissa on laskentamenetelmissä. Luotua prosessimallia sekä erityisesti laskentamenetelmiä on sovellettu yritysesimerkin avulla. Epävarmuuden mallintamisongelmaa on käsitelty sekä perinteisten klassillisten investointiteorioiden että reaalioptioajatteluun pohjautuvien menetelmien avulla. Reaalioptioteoriaan perustuvien menetelmien avulla voidaan ottaa huomioon tulevat epävarmuudet ja päätöksentekomahdollisuudet. Perinteisten reaalioptioteorioiden käytännön elämän vastaisten taustaoletuksien vuoksi tutkittiin erityisesti uusimpia malleja. Diplomityössä yritysesimerkiksi valittiin Paroc Group, jonka yritysjärjestelytilannetta tutkittiin sen nykyisen omistajan eli pankin näkökulmasta. Diplomityön yhtenä keskeisenä tavoitteena oli selvittää, että kannattaako pankin myydä yhtiö tämän hetkisellä markkinahinnalla vai odottaa parempaa myyntiajankohtaa.

The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options

En option är ett finansiellt kontrakt som ger dess innehavare en rättighet (men medför ingen skyldighet) att sälja eller köpa någonting (till exempel en aktie) till eller från säljaren av optionen till ett visst pris vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Den som säljer optionen binder sig till att gå med på denna framtida transaktion ifall optionsinnehavaren längre fram bestämmer sig för att inlösa optionen. Säljaren av optionen åtar sig alltså en risk av att den framtida transaktion som optionsinnehavaren kan tvinga honom att göra visar sig vara ofördelaktig för honom. Frågan om hur säljaren kan skydda sig mot denna risk leder till intressanta optimeringsproblem, där målet är att hitta en optimal skyddsstrategi under vissa givna villkor. Sådana optimeringsproblem har studerats mycket inom finansiell matematik. Avhandlingen "The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options" inför en ytterligare synpunkt till denna diskussion: I en relativt enkel (ändlig och komplett) marknadsmodell kan nämligen vissa partiella skyddsproblem beskrivas som så kallade kappsäcksproblem. De sistnämnda är välkända inom en gren av matematik som heter operationsanalys. I avhandlingen visas hur skyddsproblem som tidigare lösts på andra sätt kan alternativt lösas med hjälp av metoder som utvecklats för kappsäcksproblem. Förfarandet tillämpas även på helt nya skyddsproblem i samband med så kallade amerikanska optioner.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Model development for circulating fluidized bed boiler operation

Comprehensive understanding of the heat transfer processes that take place during circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustion is one of the most important issues in CFB technology development. This leads to possibility of predicting, evaluation and proper design of combustion and heat transfer mechanisms. The aim of this thesis is to develop a model for circulating fluidized bed boiler operation. Empirical correlations are used for determining heat transfer coefficients in each part of the furnace. The proposed model is used both in design and offdesign conditions. During off-design simulations fuel moisture content and boiler load effects on boiler operation have been investigated. In theoretical part of the thesis, fuel properties of most typical classes of biomass are widely reviewed. Various schemes of biomass utilization are presented and, especially, concerning circulating fluidized bed boilers. In addition, possible negative effects of biomass usage in boilers are briefly discussed.

Microbusiness: A new social business model to alleviate poverty in developing countries?

Poverty alleviation views have shifted from seeing the poor as victims or as potential consumers, to seeing them as gainers. Social businesses include microfinancing and microfranchising, which engage people at the bottom of the pyramid using business instead of charity. There are, however, social business firms that do not fit to the existing social business model theory. These firms provide markets to poor producers and mix traditional, local craftsmanship with western design. Social business models evolve faster than the academic literature can study them. This study contributes to filling this gap. The purpose of this Master’s thesis is to develop the concept of social business as poverty alleviation method in developing countries. It also aims; 1) to describe the means for poverty alleviation in developing countries; 2) to introduce microbusiness as a social business model; and 3) to examine the challenges of microbusinesses. Qualitative case study is used as a research strategy and theme interviews as a data collecting method. The empirical data is gathered from four interviews of Finnish or Finnish-owned firms that employ microbusiness – Mifuko, Tensira, Mangomaa and Tikau – and this is supported with secondary data including articles on case companies. The results show that microbusiness is a valid new social business model that aims at poverty alleviation by engaging the poor at the bottom of the pyramid. It is possible to map the value proposition, value constellation, and economic and social profit equations of the case firms. Two major types of firms emerge from the results; the first consists of design-oriented firms that emphasize the quality and design of the products, and the second consists of bazaar-like firms whose product portfolio is less sophisticated and who promote more the stories of the products – not the design. All microbusiness firms provide markets, promote traditional handicrafts, form close relationships to their producers, and aim at enhancing lives through their businesses. The attitudes towards social businesses are sometimes negative, but this is changing for the better. In conclusion, microbusiness answers to two different needs at the same time – consumers’ needs for ethical products and the social needs of the producers – but the social need is the ultimate reason why the entrepreneurs started business. Microbusiness continues as a poverty alleviation tool that sees the poor as gainers; by providing them steady employment, microbusiness increases the poor’s self-esteem and enables them for a better living. Academic literature has not been able to offer enough alternative business models to cover all social businesses; the current study contributes to this by concluding that microbusiness is another social business model.

Cell Model Systems in Characterizing Alpha2-Adrenoceptors as Drug Targets.

The three alpha2-adrenoceptor (alpha2-AR) subtypes belong to the G protein-coupled receptor superfamily and represent potential drug targets. These receptors have many vital physiological functions, but their actions are complex and often oppose each other. Current research is therefore driven towards discovering drugs that selectively interact with a specific subtype. Cell model systems can be used to evaluate a chemical compound's activity in complex biological systems. The aim of this thesis was to optimize and validate cell-based model systems and assays to investigate alpha2-ARs as drug targets. The use of immortalized cell lines as model systems is firmly established but poses several problems, since the protein of interest is expressed in a foreign environment, and thus essential components of receptor regulation or signaling cascades might be missing. Careful cell model validation is thus required; this was exemplified by three different approaches. In cells heterologously expressing alpha2A-ARs, it was noted that the transfection technique affected the test outcome; false negative adenylyl cyclase test results were produced unless a cell population expressing receptors in a homogenous fashion was used. Recombinant alpha2C-ARs in non-neuronal cells were retained inside the cells, and not expressed in the cell membrane, complicating investigation of this receptor subtype. Receptor expression enhancing proteins (REEPs) were found to be neuronalspecific adapter proteins that regulate the processing of the alpha2C-AR, resulting in an increased level of total receptor expression. Current trends call for the use of primary cells endogenously expressing the receptor of interest; therefore, primary human vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC) expressing alpha2-ARs were tested in a functional assay monitoring contractility with a myosin light chain phosphorylation assay. However, these cells were not compatible with this assay due to the loss of differentiation. A rat aortic SMC cell line transfected to express the human alpha2B-AR was adapted for the assay, and it was found that the alpha2-AR agonist, dexmedetomidine, evoked myosin light chain phosphorylation in this model.