Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

Design and characterization of large area position sensitive radiation detectors

Planar, large area, position sensitive silicon detectors are widely utilized in high energy physics research and in medical, computed tomography (CT). This thesis describes author's research work relating to development of such detector components. The key motivation and objective for the research work has been the development of novel, position sensitive detectors improving the performance of the instruments they are intended for. Silicon strip detectors are the key components of barrel-shaped tracking instruments which are typically the innermost structures of high energy physics experimental stations. Particle colliders such as the former LEP collider or present LHC produce particle collisions and the silicon strip detector based trackers locate the trajectories of particles emanating from such collisions. Medical CT has become a regular part of everyday medical care in all developed countries. CT scanning enables x-ray imaging of all parts of the human body with an outstanding structural resolution and contrast. Brain, chest and abdomen slice images with a resolution of 0.5 mm are possible and latest CT machines are able to image whole human heart between heart beats. The two application areas are presented shortly and the radiation detection properties of planar silicon detectors are discussed. Fabrication methods and preamplifier electronics of the planar detectors are presented. Designs of the developed, large area silicon detectors are presented and measurement results of the key operating parameters are discussed. Static and dynamic performance of the developed silicon strip detectors are shown to be very satisfactory for experimental physics applications. Results relating to the developed, novel CT detector chips are found to be very promising for further development and all key performance goals are met.

Täryseulan dynamiikan simulointi

Työssä selvitetään voidaanko täryseulan dynamiikkaa simuloida monikappaledynamiikkaohjelmiston avulla. Seulan simulointimallilla tutkitaan toimintaparametrien vaikutusta koneen liikerataan. Lisäksi tutkitaan voidaanko Jeffcott roottorimallin avulla simuloida yhdestä täryakselista koostuvan täryseulan liikerata. The objective of this study is to simulate dynamics of the vibrating screen using multibody dynamics. The effect of the operating parameters is studied using the simulation model. In addition the principles of Jeffcott rotor are applied to find out the trajectories of the vibrating screen consisting of single axis.

Conceptualizing and counteracting the bullying dynamic: Classroom and school contexts matter

Guided by the social-ecological conceptualization of bullying, this thesis examines the implications of classroom and school contexts—that is, students’ shared microsystems—for peer-to-peer bullying and antibullying practices. Included are four original publications, three of which are empirical studies utilizing data from a large Finnish sample of students in the upper grade levels of elementary school. Both self- and peer reports of bullying and victimization are utilized, and the hierarchical nature of the data collected from students nested within school ecologies is accounted for by multilevel modeling techniques. The first objective of the thesis is to simultaneously examine risk factors for victimization at individual, classroom, and school levels (Study I). The second objective is to uncover the individual- and classroom-level working mechanisms of the KiVa antibullying program which has been shown to be effective in reducing bullying problems in Finnish schools (Study II). Thirdly, an overview of the extant literature on classroom- and school-level contributions to bullying and victimization is provided (Study III). Finally, attention is paid to the assessment of victimization and, more specifically, to how the classroom context influences the concordance between self- and peer reports of victimization (Study IV). Findings demonstrate the multiple ways in which contextual factors, and importantly students’ perceptions thereof, contribute to the bullying dynamic and efforts to counteract it. Whereas certain popular beliefs regarding the implications of classroom and school contexts do not receive support, the role of peer contextual factors and the significance of students’ perceptions of teachers’ attitudes toward bullying are highlighted. Directions for future research and school-based antibullying practices are suggested.

Post-processing and analysis of tracked hand trajectories

In this thesis, the suitability of different trackers for finger tracking in high-speed videos was studied. Tracked finger trajectories from the videos were post-processed and analysed using various filtering and smoothing methods. Position derivatives of the trajectories, speed and acceleration were extracted for the purposes of hand motion analysis. Overall, two methods, Kernelized Correlation Filters and Spatio-Temporal Context Learning tracking, performed better than the others in the tests. Both achieved high accuracy for the selected high-speed videos and also allowed real-time processing, being able to process over 500 frames per second. In addition, the results showed that different filtering methods can be applied to produce more appropriate velocity and acceleration curves calculated from the tracking data. Local Regression filtering and Unscented Kalman Smoother gave the best results in the tests. Furthermore, the results show that tracking and filtering methods are suitable for high-speed hand-tracking and trajectory-data post-processing.

Prediction of neurodevelopment and neuromotor trajectories in very preterm born children up to 11 years of age: PIPARI Study

Very preterm birth is a risk for brain injury and abnormal neurodevelopment. While the incidence of cerebral palsy has decreased due to advances in perinatal and neonatal care, the rate of less severe neuromotor problems continues to be high in very prematurely born children. Neonatal brain imaging can aid in identifying children for closer follow-up and in providing parents information on developmental risks. This thesis aimed to study the predictive value of structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at term age, serial neonatal cranial ultrasound (cUS), and structured neurological examinations during the longitudinal follow-up for the neurodevelopment of very preterm born children up to 11 years of age as a part of the PIPARI Study (The Development and Functioning of Very Low Birth Weight Infants from Infancy to School Age). A further aim was to describe the associations between regional brain volumes and long-term neuromotor profile. The prospective follow-up comprised of the assessment of neurosensory development at 2 years of corrected age, cognitive development at 5 years of chronological age, and neuromotor development at 11 years of age. Neonatal brain imaging and structured neurological examinations predicted neurodevelopment at all age-points. The combination of neurological examination and brain MRI or cUS improved the predictive value of neonatal brain imaging alone. Decreased brain volumes associated with neuromotor performance. At the age of 11 years, the majority of the very preterm born children had age-appropriate neuromotor development and after-school sporting activities. Long-term clinical follow-up is recommended at least for all very preterm infants with major brain pathologies.

Fabrication and characterization of silicon position sensitive particle detectors

Position sensitive particle detectors are needed in high energy physics research. This thesis describes the development of fabrication processes and characterization techniques of silicon microstrip detectors used in the work for searching elementary particles in the European center for nuclear research, CERN. The detectors give an electrical signal along the particles trajectory after a collision in the particle accelerator. The trajectories give information about the nature of the particle in the struggle to reveal the structure of the matter and the universe. Detectors made of semiconductors have a better position resolution than conventional wire chamber detectors. Silicon semiconductor is overwhelmingly used as a detector material because of its cheapness and standard usage in integrated circuit industry. After a short spread sheet analysis of the basic building block of radiation detectors, the pn junction, the operation of a silicon radiation detector is discussed in general. The microstrip detector is then introduced and the detailed structure of a double-sided ac-coupled strip detector revealed. The fabrication aspects of strip detectors are discussedstarting from the process development and general principles ending up to the description of the double-sided ac-coupled strip detector process. Recombination and generation lifetime measurements in radiation detectors are discussed shortly. The results of electrical tests, ie. measuring the leakage currents and bias resistors, are displayed. The beam test setups and the results, the signal to noise ratio and the position accuracy, are then described. It was found out in earlier research that a heavy irradiation changes the properties of radiation detectors dramatically. A scanning electron microscope method was developed to measure the electric potential and field inside irradiated detectorsto see how a high radiation fluence changes them. The method and the most important results are discussed shortly.

Productivity of Business Services - Towards A New Taxonomy

Statistics show that the expanding service sector accounts already for three quarters of GDP in the developed economies. Moreover, there is abundant evidence on high variation in productive performance across the service industries. This suggests divergent technological and institutional trajectories within the tertiary sector. While conceptual knowledge on services and their performance has accumulated substantially, the overall landscape on productivity and competitiveness is still inconclusive. As noted by number of authors the research on service productivity is still in its infancy. The purpose of this paper is to develop further the analytical framework of service productivity. The approach is based on the notion that service definitions, classifications and performance measurement are strongly interdependent. Given the ongoing restructuring of businesses activities with higher information content, it is argued that the dichotomy between manufacturing and services should not be taken too far. Industrial evolution also suggests that the official industry classifications are increasingly outdated and new taxonomies for empirical research are therefore needed. Based on the previous analyses and new insights the paper clarifies the debated concept of service productivity and identifies the critical dimensions by which the service industries cluster. It is also demonstrated that the dimensions enable to construct new service taxonomies which bear essentially on productivity opportunities at the business level. Needles to say the key determinant explaining the development and potential of productivity growth is innovation activity. As an extensive topic of research, however, service innovation is tackled here only in a cursory way. The paper is constructed as follows: the first section focuses on the conceptual issues and evolving nature of service activities. A workable definition of service should capture the diversity of service activities, as well as the aspects of service processes, comprehensively. The distinctions and similarities between services and manufacturing are discussed, too. Section 2 deals with the service productivity, a persistent and controversial issue in academic literature and policy. With the assessments of strengths and weaknesses of the main schools new insights based on value creation will be brought in. Industry classifications and taxonomies are discussed in Section 3. It begins with a short analysis of the official classifications and their evaluation from the perspective of empirical research. Using well-known examples it is shown that the taxonomies on the manufacturing industries have a clear analogy with the business services. As there is a growing interest to regroup services too, the work to date, has been less systematic and inherently qualitative. Based on the earlier contributions threedimensional service taxonomy is constructed which highlight the key dimensions of productive performance. The main findings and implications are summed up in Section 4.

IDEAS for Strategic Technology Management: Design of an electronically mediated scenario method

The age-old adage goes that nothing in this world lasts but change, and this generation has indeed seen changes that are unprecedented. Business managers do not have the luxury of going with the flow: they have to plan ahead, to think strategies that will meet the changing conditions, however stormy the weather seems to be. This demand raises the question of whether there is something a manager or planner can do to circumvent the eye of the storm in the future? Intuitively, one can either run on the risk of something happening without preparing, or one can try to prepare oneself. Preparing by planning for each eventuality and contingency would be impractical and prohibitively expensive, so one needs to develop foreknowledge, or foresight past the horizon of the present and the immediate future. The research mission in this study is to support strategic technology management by designing an effective and efficient scenario method to induce foresight to practicing managers. The design science framework guides this study in developing and evaluating the IDEAS method. The IDEAS method is an electronically mediated scenario method that is specifically designed to be an effective and accessible. The design is based on the state-of-the-art in scenario planning, and the product is a technology-based artifact to solve the foresight problem. This study demonstrates the utility, quality and efficacy of the artifact through a multi-method empirical evaluation study, first by experimental testing and secondly through two case studies. The construction of the artifact is rigorously documented as justification knowledge as well as the principles of form and function on the general level, and later through the description and evaluation of instantiations. This design contributes both to practice and foundation of the design. The IDEAS method contributes to the state-of-the-art in scenario planning by offering a light-weight and intuitive scenario method for resource constrained applications. Additionally, the study contributes to the foundations and methods of design by forging a clear design science framework which is followed rigorously. To summarize, the IDEAS method is offered for strategic technology management, with a confident belief that it will enable gaining foresight and aid the users to choose trajectories past the gales of creative destruction and off to a brighter future.

Effectiveness of the KiVa Antibullying Program

According to the participant role approach (Salmivalli, Lagerspetz, Björkqvist, Österman, & Kaukiainen, 1996), bullying is a group phenomenon that is largely enabled and maintained by the classmates taking on different participant roles (e.g., reinforcers or assistants of the bully). There is, however, very little evidence on whether the bystander behaviors actually have an effect on the risk for victimization. Furthermore, the participant role approach implies that the bystanders should be used in putting an end to bullying. This view has been put into practice in the KiVa antibullying program, but it has not yet been investigated whether the program is effective. Four studies were conducted to investigate, (a) whether the behaviors of bystanders have an effect on the risk for victimization (Study I) and (b) whether the KiVa program reduces bullying and victimization and has other beneficial effects as well (Studies II–IV). The participants included large samples of elementary and lower secondary school students (Grades 1–9) from Finland. The assessments were done with web-based questionnaires including questions about bullying and victimization (both self- and peer reports), and about several bullying-related constructs. The results of this thesis suggest that bystander behaviors in bullying situations may influence the risk for victimization of vulnerable students. Moreover, the results indicate that the KiVa antibullying program is effective in reducing victimization and bullying. The program effects are larger in elementary schools than in lower secondary schools, whereas in Grades 8 and 9, they are larger for boys than girls for some peer-reported outcomes. The magnitude of the overall effects can be considered practically significant when obtained in a large-scale dissemination of the program.

Pain symptoms and sleep problems among school-aged children. Long-term prevalence changes, and pain symptoms as predictors of later mental health

Children’s pain symptoms and sleep problems are among the most common health complaints. They distract children from activities, decrease the quality of life, contribute to a significant economic burden, and have shown continuity into adulthood. The main aims of this thesis were to investigate long-term changes in the prevalence of pain symptoms and sleep problems among Finnish school-aged children, and the later mental health of those who in childhood experience pain. Prevalence, co-occurrence, and associated psychosocial factors of pain symptoms and sleep problems were also assessed. In study I, prevalence changes in eight-year-old children’s pain symptoms and sleep problems were investigated in three cross-sectional population-based samples (years 1989: n=1038, 1999: n=1035, and 2005: n=1030). In study II, cross-sectional associations between pain symptoms, sleep problems, and psychosocial factors were assessed among 13-18-year-old adolescents (n=2476). In studies III and IV, associations between pain symptoms at age eight (n=6017), and register-based data on antidepressant use and severe suicidality by age 24, were examined in a nationwide birth cohort. Pain symptoms and sleep problems were common and often co-occurred. A considerable number of children’s pain symptoms remained unrecognized by the parents. The prevalence of pain symptoms, sleep problems, and multiple concurrent symptoms approximately doubled from 1989 to 2005. Psychiatric difficulties or demographic factors did not explain the increase. Psychosocial factors that were associated with pain, sleep problems, and a higher number of symptoms, were female sex, psychological difficulties, emotional symptoms, smoking, victimization, and feeling not cared about by teachers. In longitudinal analyses, the child’s own report of headache, and to a smaller degree the parental report of the child’s abdominal pain predicted later antidepressant use. Parental report of the child’s abdominal pain predicted severe suicidality among males. If one of the symptoms is present, health care professionals should inquire about other symptoms as well. Questions should be directed to the children, not only to their parents. Inquiring about psychiatric difficulties, substance use, victimization, and relations with teachers should be included as a part of the assessment. Further studies are needed to clarify the reasons that underlie the increased prevalence rates, and the factors that may increase or decrease the risk for later mental health problems among pain-suffering children.

Same- and Other-Sex Victimization : Risk Factors, Consequences, and Protection by Peers

Bullying can be viewed as goal-oriented behavior in the strive for dominance and prestige in the peer group (Salmivalli, 2010). To ensure the effectiveness of their power demonstrations, bullies often choose targets from among their vulnerable peers (Salmivalli, 2010; Veenstra et al., 2007). A large number of studies have also shown that victimization has severe consequences for the victims’ psychosocial adjustment (Reijntjes, Kamphuis, Prinzie, & Telch, 2010; Ttofi, Farrington, Lösel, & Loeber, 2011). In this thesis I investigate – based on three empirical studies – whether similar dynamics on the risk factors and consequences apply to same- and other-sex victimization. In the empirical studies, we used the data from the randomized control trial of the KiVa antibullying program for the elementary school grades 4–6 (2007–2008), and for the middle school grades 7–9 (2008–2009). We measured same- and other-sex victimization, and victims’ defending relationships by dyadic questions: “By which classmates are you victimized?” and “By which classmates are you supported, comforted, or defended?” In addition, we used self-reports and peer reports to measure adjustment and social status. The findings imply that other-sex victimization may be challenging for antibullying work. First, although targets of bullying seemed to be selected from among vulnerable peers for the most part, perceived popularity increased the risks of other-sex victimization. Popularity of these victims may falsely lead to an impression that the victims are doing well. Second, the consequences considering victims’ later psychosocial adjustment were alarming concerning girls bullied by boys. Thus, despite the fact that the targets may be perceived as popular, other-sex victimization can have even more severe consequences than same-sex victimization. Third, we found that defending relationships were mostly same-sex relationships, and consequently, we may ask whether defending is effective against other-sex bullies. Finally, the KiVa antibullying program was less effective against other-sex victimization in the adolescent sample. The findings altogether emphasize the importance of taking into account the sex composition of the bully-victim dyad, both considering future research on bullying and in the antibullying work with children and adolescents.

Numerical Simulation of Stochastic Di erential Equations

Stochastic differential equation (SDE) is a differential equation in which some of the terms and its solution are stochastic processes. SDEs play a central role in modeling physical systems like finance, Biology, Engineering, to mention some. In modeling process, the computation of the trajectories (sample paths) of solutions to SDEs is very important. However, the exact solution to a SDE is generally difficult to obtain due to non-differentiability character of realizations of the Brownian motion. There exist approximation methods of solutions of SDE. The solutions will be continuous stochastic processes that represent diffusive dynamics, a common modeling assumption for financial, Biology, physical, environmental systems. This Masters' thesis is an introduction and survey of numerical solution methods for stochastic differential equations. Standard numerical methods, local linearization methods and filtering methods are well described. We compute the root mean square errors for each method from which we propose a better numerical scheme. Stochastic differential equations can be formulated from a given ordinary differential equations. In this thesis, we describe two kind of formulations: parametric and non-parametric techniques. The formulation is based on epidemiological SEIR model. This methods have a tendency of increasing parameters in the constructed SDEs, hence, it requires more data. We compare the two techniques numerically.

Stiffness based trajectory planning and feedforward based vibration suppression control of parallel robot machines

The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.