MCMC Analysis for Optimization of Stochastic Models

In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

Cost-plus-loss analyses of forest inventory strategies based on kNN-assigned reference sample plot data

Abstract

Cost-benefit analysis of multifunctional agriculture in Finland

Selostus: Kustannus-hyötyanalyysi monivaikutteisesta maataloudesta

Cost-effective measures for diffuse load abatement in forestry

Abstract

New directions in Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis

Decisions taken in modern organizations are often multi-dimensional, involving multiple decision makers and several criteria measured on different scales. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods are designed to analyze and to give recommendations in this kind of situations. Among the numerous MCDM methods, two large families of methods are the multi-attribute utility theory based methods and the outranking methods. Traditionally both method families require exact values for technical parameters and criteria measurements, as well as for preferences expressed as weights. Often it is hard, if not impossible, to obtain exact values. Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods designed to help in this type of situations where exact values are not available. Different variants of SMAA allow handling all types of MCDM problems. They support defining the model through uncertain, imprecise, or completely missing values. The methods are based on simulation that is applied to obtain descriptive indices characterizing the problem. In this thesis we present new advances in the SMAA methodology. We present and analyze algorithms for the SMAA-2 method and its extension to handle ordinal preferences. We then present an application of SMAA-2 to an area where MCDM models have not been applied before: planning elevator groups for high-rise buildings. Following this, we introduce two new methods to the family: SMAA-TRI that extends ELECTRE TRI for sorting problems with uncertain parameter values, and SMAA-III that extends ELECTRE III in a similar way. An efficient software implementing these two methods has been developed in conjunction with this work, and is briefly presented in this thesis. The thesis is closed with a comprehensive survey of SMAA methodology including a definition of a unified framework.

Using tools to help cost estimating and pricing: examination of costing model's and cost breakdown's workability and their capability to cooperative work

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee työkaluja, jotka on suunniteltu kustannusten ennakointiin ja hinnan asetantaan. Aluksi on käyty läpi perinteisen ja toimintoperusteisen kustannuslaskennan perusteita. Näiden menetelmien välisiä eroja on tarkasteltu ja toimintoperusteisen kustannuslaskennan paremmin sopivuus nykypäivän yrityksille on perusteltu. Toisena käsitellään hinnoittelu. Hinnan merkitys, hinnoittelumenetelmät ja päätös lopullisesta hinnasta on käyty läpi. Hinnoittelun jälkeen esitellään kustannusjärjestelmät ja kustannusten arviointi. Nämä asiat todistavat, että tarkat kustannusarviot ovat elintärkeitä yritykselle. Tuotteen kustannusarviointi, hinnan asetanta ja tarjoaminen ovat erittäin merkityksellisiä asioita ottaen huomioon koko projektin elinkaaren ja tulevat tuotot. Nykyään on yleistä käyttää työkaluja kustannusarvioinnissa ja joskus myös hinnoittelussa. Työkalujen luotettavuus on tiedettävä, ennenkuin työkalut otetaan käyttöön. Myös työkalujen käyttäjät täytyy perehdyttää hyvin. Muuten yritys todennäköisesti kohtaa odottamattomia ja epämiellyttäviä yllätyksiä.

The Boundaries of a Firm in the Pulp and Paper Industry: Complementarities of the Resource-Based View and Transaction Cost Economics

Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on tutkia sellu- ja paperiteollisuuden toimintojen luonnetta sekä miten yrityksen rajapinnat ovat muodostuneet ko. teollisuudenalalla. Tutkimus on eksploratiivinen ja luonteeltaan kvalitatiivinen. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin yrityksissä tehdyillä teemahaastatteluilla. Sellu- ja paperitehtaan toimintojen analysoinnissa käytetään resurssiperusteista näkemystä ja transaktiokustannusteoriaa. Tutkimuksen yritysten rakennetta voidaan pitää varsin konservatiivisena. Teoreettinen kehys pystyi selittämään varsinaisen tuotannon järjestämistä varsin hyvin. Tukitoiminnoissa löytyi ristiriitoja teorian ja todellisuuden välillä. Tuotantotoiminnot kannattaa pitää yrityksen sisällä, koska ne täyttävät VRIN-attribuutit ja niihin liittyy korkeita transaktiokustannuksia. Suurin osa tukitoiminnoista voidaan luokitella triviaaleiksi. Joitain tukitoimintoja voidaan kuitenkin luokitella strategisesti tärkeiksi, ja voidaan päätellä, että ne pitäisi pitää yrityksen sisällä. Tässä suhteessa tulokset olivat kuitenkin ristiriitaisia, ja lisätutkimuksia tarvittaisiin lopullisten johtopäätösten tekemiseen.

The Boundaries of the Firm from the Extended Transaction Cost Economics Point of View - Empirical Study

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia yrityksen rajoja laajennetun transaktiokustannusteorian näkökulmasta. Tutkimus oli empiirinen tutkimus, jossa tutkittiin viittä toimialaa. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli verrata paperiteollisuutta teräs-, kemian-, ICT- ja energiateollisuuteen. Aineisto empiiriseen osioon kerättiin puolistrukturoiduilla teemahaastatteluilla. Tutkimus osoitti, että laajennettu transaktiokustannusteoria soveltuu hyvinyrityksen rajojen määrittelyyn. Staattinen transaktiokustannusteorian selitysaste ei ole riittävä, joten dynaaminen laajennus on tarpeellinen. Tutkimuksessa ilmeni, että paperiteollisuudella verrattuna muihin toimialoihin on suurimmat haasteet tehokkaiden rajojen määrittämisessä.

Finding the Fit Between Engineering Design and Cost Information

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is put on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method. Today, the problem of cost estimation in engineering design is that there are two separate extremes of knowledge. On the one extreme, the engineers model the technical parametres behindcosts in great detail but do not get appropriate cost information to their elegant models. On the other extreme, the accounting professionals are stuck with traditional cost accounting methods driven by the procedures and cycles of financial accounting. Therefore, in many cases, the cost information needs of various decision making groups, for example design engineers, are not served satisfactorily. This paper studies if the activity-based costing (ABC) method could offer a compromise between the two extremes. Recognizing activities and activity chains as well as activity and cost drivers could be specially beneficial for design engineers. Also, recognizing the accurate and reliable product costs of existing products helps when doing variant design. However, ABC is not at its best if the cost system becomes too complicated. This is why a comprehensive ABC-cost information system with detailed cost information for the use of design engineers should be examined critically. ABC is at its best when considering such issues as which activities drive costs, the cost of product complexity, allocating indirect costs on the products, the relationships between processes and costs, and the cost of excess capacity.

Value added logistical support service: logistics cost structure and performance in the new concept. Part 3

The aim of this study is to present an Activity-Based Costing spreadsheet tool for analyzing the logistics costs. The tool can be used both by customer-companies and logistics service providers. The study discusses the influence of different activity models on costs. Additionally this paper discusses about the logistical performance across the total supply chain This study is carried out using ananalytical research approach and literature material has been used for supplementing the concerned research approach. Cost structure analysis was based on the theory of activity-based management. This study was outlined to spare part logistics in machine-shop industry. The outlines of logistics services and logisticalperformance discussed in this report are based on the new logistics business concept (LMS-concept), which has been presented earlier in the Valssi-project. Oneof the aims of this study is to increase awareness of different activity modelson logistics costs. The report paints an overall picture about the business environment and requirements for the new logistics concept.

Communicating Cost Information to Design Engineers using an Activity-based Costing Method

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method when formulating cost information for the needs of design engineers. This paper suggests that ABC is more useful than the traditional job order costing, but the negative issue is the fact that ABC models become easily too complicated, i.e. expensive to build and maintain, and difficult to use. For engineering design the most suitable elements of ABC are recognizing activities of the company, constructing acitivity chains, identifying resources, activity and cost drivers, as wellas calculating accurate product costs. ABC systems including numerous cost drivers can become complex. Therefore, a comprehensive ABC based cost information system for the use of design engineers should be considered criticaly. Combining the suitable ideas of ABC with engineering oriented thinking could give competentresults.

Cost information in engineering design -Potentials and limitations of activity-based costing

The purpose of this thesis is to analyse activity-based costing (ABC) and possible modified versions ofit in engineering design context. The design engineers need cost information attheir decision-making level and the cost information should also have a strong future orientation. These demands are high because traditional management accounting has concentrated on the direct actual costs of the products. However, cost accounting has progressed as ABC was introduced late 1980s and adopted widely bycompanies in the 1990s. The ABC has been a success, but it has gained also criticism. In some cases the ambitious ABC systems have become too complex to build,use and update. This study can be called an action-oriented case study with some normative features. In this thesis theoretical concepts are assessed and allowed to unfold gradually through interaction with data from three cases. The theoretical starting points are ABC and theory of engineering design process (chapter2). Concepts and research results from these theoretical approaches are summarized in two hypotheses (chapter 2.3). The hypotheses are analysed with two cases (chapter 3). After the two case analyses, the ABC part is extended to cover alsoother modern cost accounting methods, e.g. process costing and feature costing (chapter 4.1). The ideas from this second theoretical part are operationalized with the third case (chapter 4.2). The knowledge from the theory and three cases is summarized in the created framework (chapter 4.3). With the created frameworkit is possible to analyse ABC and its modifications in the engineering design context. The framework collects the factors that guide the choice of the costing method to be used in engineering design. It also illuminates the contents of various ABC-related costing methods. However, the framework needs to be further tested. On the basis of the three cases it can be said that ABC should be used cautiously when formulating cost information for engineering design. It is suitable when the manufacturing can be considered simple, or when the design engineers are not cost conscious, and in the beginning of the design process when doing adaptive or variant design. If the design engineers need cost information for the embodiment or detailed design, or if manufacturing can be considered complex, or when design engineers are cost conscious, the ABC has to be always evaluated critically.

Welding time models for cost calculations in the early stages of the design process

It is generally accepted that between 70 and 80% of manufacturing costs can be attributed to design. Nevertheless, it is difficult for the designer to estimate manufacturing costs accurately, especially when alternative constructions are compared at the conceptual design phase, because of the lack of cost information and appropriate tools. In general, previous reports concerning optimisation of a welded structure have used the mass of the product as the basis for the cost comparison. However, it can easily be shown using a simple example that the use of product mass as the sole manufacturing cost estimator is unsatisfactory. This study describes a method of formulating welding time models for cost calculation, and presents the results of the models for particular sections, based on typical costs in Finland. This was achieved by collecting information concerning welded products from different companies. The data included 71 different welded assemblies taken from the mechanical engineering and construction industries. The welded assemblies contained in total 1 589 welded parts, 4 257 separate welds, and a total welded length of 3 188 metres. The data were modelled for statistical calculations, and models of welding time were derived by using linear regression analysis. Themodels were tested by using appropriate statistical methods, and were found to be accurate. General welding time models have been developed, valid for welding in Finland, as well as specific, more accurate models for particular companies. The models are presented in such a form that they can be used easily by a designer, enabling the cost calculation to be automated.

Logging residues from regeneration fellings for biofuel production - a GIS-based availability and supply cost analysis

Finland has large forest fuel resources. However, the use of forest fuels for energy production has been low, except for small-scale use in heating. According to national action plans and programs related to wood energy promotion, the utilization of such resources will be multiplied over the next few years. The most significant part of this growth will be based on the utilization of forest fuels, produced from logging residues of regeneration fellings, in industrial and municipal power and heating plants. Availability of logging residues was analyzed by means of resource and demand approaches in order to identify the most suitable regions with focus on increasing the forest fuel usage. The analysis included availability and supply cost comparisons between power plant sites and resource allocation in a least cost manner, and between a predefined power plant structure under demand and supply constraints. Spatial analysis of worksite factors and regional geographies were carried out using the GIS-model environment via geoprocessing and cartographic modeling tools. According to the results of analyses, the cost competitiveness of forest fuel supply should be improved in order to achieve the designed objectives in the near future. Availability and supply costs of forest fuels varied spatially and were very sensitive to worksite factors and transport distances. According to the site-specific analysis the supply potential between differentlocations can be multifold. However, due to technical and economical reasons ofthe fuel supply and dense power plant infrastructure, the supply potential is limited at plant level. Therefore, the potential and supply cost calculations aredepending on site-specific matters, where regional characteristics of resourcesand infrastructure should be taken into consideration, for example by using a GIS-modeling approach constructed in this study.