Contrasting tree-ring data with fire record in a pine-dominated landscape in the Komi Republic (Eastern European Russia) : recovering a common climate signal

Abstract

Biodiversity value of potential forest fertilisation stands, as assessed by red-listed and "signal" bryophytes and lichens

Abstract

The Development of Weak Signal Concept

Tämän hetken trendit kuten globalisoituminen, ympäristömme turbulenttisuus, elintason nousu, turvallisuuden tarpeen kasvu ja teknologian kehitysnopeus korostavatmuutosten ennakoinnin tarpeellisuutta. Pysyäkseen kilpailukykyisenä yritysten tulee kerätä, analysoida ja hyödyntää liiketoimintatietoa, jokatukee niiden toimintaa viranomaisten, kilpailijoiden ja asiakkaiden toimenpiteiden ennakoinnissa. Innovoinnin ja uusien konseptien kehittäminen, kilpailijoiden toiminnan arviointi, asiakkaiden tarpeet muun muassa vaativatennakoivaa arviointia. Heikot signaalit ovat keskeisessä osassa organisaatioiden valmistautumisessa tulevaisuuden tapahtumiin. Opinnäytetyön tarkoitus on luoda ja kehittää heikkojen signaalien ymmärrystä ja hallintaa sekäkehittää konseptuaalinen ja käytännöllinen lähestymistapa ennakoivan toiminnan edistämiselle. Heikkojen signaalien tyyppien luokittelu perustuu ominaisuuksiin ajan, voimakkuuden ja liiketoimintaan integroinnin suhteen. Erityyppiset heikot signaalit piirteineen luovat reunaehdot laatutekijöiden keräämiselle ja siitä edelleen laatujärjestelmän ja matemaattiseen malliin perustuvan työvälineen kehittämiselle. Heikkojen signaalien laatutekijät on kerätty yhteen kaikista heikkojen signaalien konseptin alueista. Analysoidut ja kohdistetut laatumuuttujat antavat mahdollisuuden kehittää esianalyysiä ja ICT - työvälineitä perustuen matemaattisen mallin käyttöön. Opinnäytetyön tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi tehtiin ensin Business Intelligence -kirjallisuustutkimus. Hiekkojen signaalien prosessi ja systeemi perustuvat koottuun Business Intelligence - systeemiin. Keskeisinä kehitysalueina tarkasteltiin liiketoiminnan integraatiota ja systemaattisen menetelmän kehitysaluetta. Heikkojen signaalien menetelmien ja määritelmien kerääminen sekä integrointi määriteltyyn prosessiin luovat uuden konseptin perustan, johon tyypitys ja laatutekijät kytkeytyvät. Käytännöllisen toiminnan tarkastelun ja käyttöönoton mahdollistamiseksi toteutettiin Business Intelligence markkinatutkimus (n=156) sekä yhteenveto muihin saatavilla oleviin markkinatutkimuksiin. Syvähaastatteluilla (n=21) varmennettiin laadullisen tarkastelun oikeellisuus. Lisäksi analysoitiin neljä käytännön projektia, joiden yhteenvedot kytkettiin uuden konseptin kehittämiseen. Prosessi voidaan jakaa kahteen luokkaan: yritysten markkinasignaalit vuoden ennakoinnilla ja julkisen sektorin verkostoprojektit kehittäen ennakoinnin struktuurin luonnin 7-15 vuoden ennakoivalle toiminnalle. Tutkimus rajattiin koskemaan pääasiassa ulkoisen tiedon aluetta. IT työvälineet ja lopullisen laatusysteemin kehittäminen jätettiin tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Opinnäytetyön tavoitteena ollut heikkojen signaalien konseptin kehittäminen toteutti sille asetetut odotusarvot. Heikkojen signaalien systemaattista tarkastelua ja kehittämistyötä on mahdollista edistää Business Intelligence - systematiikan hyödyntämisellä. Business Intelligence - systematiikkaa käytetään isojen yritysten liiketoiminnan suunnittelun tukena.Organisaatioiden toiminnassa ei ole kuitenkaan yleisesti hyödynnetty laadulliseen analyysiin tukeutuvaa ennakoinnin weak signals - toimintaa. Ulkoisenja sisäisen tiedon integroinnin ja systematiikan hyödyt PK -yritysten tukena vaativat merkittävää panostusta julkishallinnon rahoituksen ja kehitystoiminnan tukimuotoina. Ennakointi onkin tuottanut lukuisia julkishallinnon raportteja, mutta ei käytännön toteutuksia. Toisaalta analysoitujen case-tapausten tuloksena voidaan nähdä, ettei organisaatioissa välttämättä tarvita omaa projektipäällikköä liiketoiminnan tuen kehittämiseksi. Business vastuun ottamiseksi ja asiaan sitoutumiseen on kuitenkin löydyttävä oikea henkilö

GPS-signal Source Based on Direct Digital Synthesis

This thesis presents the design and implementation of a GPS-signal source suitable for receiver measurements. The developed signal source is based on direct digital synthesis which generates the intermediate frequency. The intermediate frequency is transfered to the final frequency with the aid of an Inphase/Quadrature modulator. The modulating GPS-data was generated with MATLAB. The signal source was duplicated to form a multi channel source. It was shown that, GPS-signals ment for civil navigation are easy to generate in the laboratory. The hardware does not need to be technically advanced if navigation with high level of accuracy is not needed. It was also shown that, the Inphase/Quadrature modulator can function as a single side band upconverter even with a high intermediate frequency. This concept reduces the demands required for output filtering.

Literature review on permanent magnet generators design and dynamic behavior

This paper is a literature review which describes the construction of state of the art of permanent magnet generators and motors constructing and discusses the current and possible application of these machines in industry. Permanent magnet machines are a well-know class of rotating and linear electric machines used for many years in industrial applications. A particular interest for permanent magnet generators is connected with wind mills, which seem to be becoming increasingly popular nowadays. Geared and direct-driven permanent magnet generators are described. A classification of direct-driven permanent magnet generators is given. Design aspects of permanent magnet generators are presented. Permanent magnet generators for wind turbines designs are highlighted. Dynamics and vibration problems of permanent magnet generators covered in literature are presented. The application of the Finite Element Method for mechanical problems solution in the field of permanent magnet generators is discussed.

Overvoltage Mitigation Techniques in Wind Power Generators

Advancements in power electronic semiconductor switching devices have lead to significantly faster switching times. In motor and generator applications, the fast switching times of pulse width modulated (PWM) inverters lead to overvoltages caused by voltage reflections with shorter and shorter cables. These excessive overvoltages may lead to a failure of the electrical machine in a matter of months. In this thesis, the causes behind the overvoltage phenomenon as well as its different mitigation techniques are studied. The most suitable techniques for mitigating the overvoltage phenomenon in wind power generator applications are chosen based on both simulations and actual measurements performed on a prototype. An RC filter at the terminals of the electrical machine and an inverter output filter designed to reduce the rise and fall times of voltage pulses are presented as a solution to the overvoltage problem. The performance and losses of both filter types are analysed.

Assembly Methods of Permanent Magnets for Synchronous Generators

This thesis examines and explains the procedure used to redesign the attachment of permanent magnets to the surface of the rotor of a synchronous generator. The methodology followed to go from the actual assembly to converge to the final purposed innovation was based on the systematic approach design. This meant that first a series of steps had to be predefined as a frame of reference later to be used to compare and select proposals, and finally to obtain the innovation that was sought. Firstly, a series of patents was used as the background for the upcoming ideas. To this end, several different patented assemblies had been found and categorized according the main element onto which this thesis if focused, meaning the attachment element or method. After establishing the technological frame of reference, a brainstorm was performed to obtain as many ideas as possible. Then these ideas were classified, regardless of their degree of complexity or usability, since at this time the quantity of the ideas was the important issue. Subsequently, they were compared and evaluated from different points of view. The comparison and evaluation in this case was based on the use of a requirement list, which established the main needs that the design had to fulfill. Then the selection could be done by grading each idea in accordance with these requirements. In this way, one was able to obtain the idea or ideas that best fulfilled these requirements. Once all of the ideas were compared and evaluated, the best or most suitable idea or ideas were separated. Finally, the selected idea or ideas was/were analyzed in extension and a number of improvements were made. Consequently, a final idea was refined and made more suitable at its performance, manufacture, and life cycle assessment. Therefore, in the end, the design process gave a solution to the problem pointed out at the beginning.

Ancillary services market and potential profit for generators in Russia

Reformation of electricity markets has initiated creation of ancillary services markets all over the world. The Russian electricity market reform is in transition period, that is why the problem of ancillary services market has just arisen. Since the model of market rules was created, ancillary services market became a topical question for generating companies. This master’s thesis is focused on the describing the possible ancillary services around the world and in Russia specifically. Moreover, the physical interpretation of ancillary services is defined. In addition, possibility of generation company to participate in the ancillary services market was considered. Calculations were made for primary frequency regulation service, where necessary level of price bids and payback period were evaluated.

Design of marine generators for alternative diesel-electric power systems

This study compares different electric propulsion systems. Results of the analysis of all the advantages and disadvantages of the different propulsion systems are given. This thesis estimates possibilities to apply different diesel-electric propulsion concepts for different vessel types. Small and medium size vessel’s power ranges are studied. The optimal delivery system is chosen. This choice is made on the base of detailed study of the concepts, electrical equipment market and comparison of mass, volume and efficiency parameters. In this thesis three marine generators are designed. They are: salient pole synchronous generator and two permanent magnet synchronous generators. Their electrical, dimensional, cost and efficiency parameters are compared. To understand all the benefits diagrams with these parameters are prepared. Possible benefits and money savings are estimated. As the result the advantages, disadvantages and boundary conditions for the permanent magnet synchronous generator application in marine electric-power systems are found out.

Design Aspects of Megawatt-Range Direct-Driven Permanent MagnetWind Generators

Direct-driven permanent magnet synchronous generator is one of the most promising topologies for megawatt-range wind power applications. The rotational speed of the direct-driven generator is very low compared with the traditional electrical machines. The low rotational speed requires high torque to produce megawatt-range power. The special features of the direct-driven generators caused by the low speed and high torque are discussed in this doctoral thesis. Low speed and high torque set high demands on the torque quality. The cogging torque and the load torque ripple must be as low as possible to prevent mechanical failures. In this doctoral thesis, various methods to improve the torque quality are compared with each other. The rotor surface shaping, magnet skew, magnet shaping, and the asymmetrical placement of magnets and stator slots are studied not only by means of torque quality, but also the effects on the electromagnetic performance and manufacturability of the machine are discussed. The heat transfer of the direct-driven generator must be designed to handle the copper losses of the stator winding carrying high current density and to keep the temperature of the magnets low enough. The cooling system of the direct-driven generator applying the doubly radial air cooling with numerous radial cooling ducts was modeled with a lumped-parameter-based thermal network. The performance of the cooling system was discussed during the steady and transient states. The effect of the number and width of radial cooling ducts was explored. The large number of radial cooling ducts drastically increases the impact of the stack end area effects, because the stator stack consists of numerous substacks. The effects of the radial cooling ducts on the effective axial length of the machine were studied by analyzing the crosssection of the machine in the axial direction. The method to compensate the magnet end area leakage was considered. The effect of the cooling ducts and the stack end area effects on the no-load voltages and inductances of the machine were explored by using numerical analysis tools based on the three-dimensional finite element method. The electrical efficiency of the permanent magnet machine with different control methods was estimated analytically over the whole speed and torque range. The electrical efficiencies achieved with the most common control methods were compared with each other. The stator voltage increase caused by the armature reaction was analyzed. The effect of inductance saturation as a function of load current was implemented to the analytical efficiency calculation.

Identification of Some Additional Loss Components in High-Power Low-Voltage Permanent Magnet Generators

Permanent magnet generators (PMG) represent the cutting edge technology in modern wind mills. The efficiency remains high (over 90%) at partial loads. To improve the machine efficiency even further, every aspect of machine losses has to be analyzed. Additional losses are often given as a certain percentage without providing any detailed information about the actual calculation process; meanwhile, there are many design-dependent losses that have an effect on the total amount of additional losses and that have to be taken into consideration. Additional losses are most often eddy current losses in different parts of the machine. These losses are usually difficult to calculate in the design process. In this doctoral thesis, some additional losses are identified and modeled. Further, suggestions on how to minimize the losses are given. Iron losses can differ significantly between the measured no-load values and the loss values under load. In addition, with embedded magnet rotors, the quadrature-axis armature reaction adds losses to the stator iron by manipulating the harmonic content of the flux. It was, therefore, re-evaluated that in salient pole machines, to minimize the losses and the loss difference between the no-load and load operation, the flux density has to be kept below 1.5 T in the stator yoke, which is the traditional guideline for machine designers. Eddy current losses may occur in the end-winding area and in the support structure of the machine, that is, in the finger plate and the clamping ring. With construction steel, these losses account for 0.08% of the input power of the machine. These losses can be reduced almost to zero by using nonmagnetic stainless steel. In addition, the machine housing may be subjected to eddy current losses if the flux density exceeds 1.5 T in the stator yoke. Winding losses can rise rapidly when high frequencies and 10–15 mm high conductors are used. In general, minimizing the winding losses is simple. For example, it can be done by dividing the conductor into transposed subconductors. However, this comes with the expense of an increase in the DC resistance. In the doctoral thesis, a new method is presented to minimize the winding losses by applying a litz wire with noninsulated strands. The construction is the same as in a normal litz wire but the insulation between the subconductors has been left out. The idea is that the connection is kept weak to prevent harmful eddy currents from flowing. Moreover, the analytical solution for calculating the AC resistance factor of the litz-wire is supplemented by including an end-winding resistance in the analytical solution. A simple measurement device is developed to measure the AC resistance in the windings. In the case of a litz-wire with originally noninsulated strands, vacuum pressure impregnation (VPI) is used to insulate the subconductors. In one of the two cases studied, the VPI affected the AC resistance factor, but in the other case, it did not have any effect. However, more research is needed to determine the effect of the VPI on litz-wire with noninsulated strands. An empirical model is developed to calculate the AC resistance factor of a single-layer formwound winding. The model includes the end-winding length and the number of strands and turns. The end winding includes the circulating current (eddy currents that are traveling through the whole winding between parallel strands) and the main current. The end-winding length also affects the total AC resistance factor.

Economical potential of controlling charging of electric vehicles by using price signal

The number of electric vehicles grows continuously and the implementation of charging electric vehicles is an important issue for the future. Increasing amount of electric vehicles can cause problems to distribution grid by increasing peak load. Currently charging of electric vehicles is uncontrolled, but as the amount of electric vehicles grows, smart charg-ing (controlled charging) will be one possible solution to handle this situation. In this thesis smart charging of electric vehicles is examined from electricity retailers` point of view. The purpose is to find out plausible saving potentials of smart charging, when it´s controlled by price signal. Saving potential is calculated by comparing costs of price signal controlled charging and uncontrolled charging.

Physical Attractiveness as a Signal of Biological Quality

It has been commonly thought that standards of beauty are arbitrary cultural conventions that vary between cultures and time. In my thesis I found that it is not so. Instead, I show that attractiveness and preferred traits serve as cues to phenotypic qualities that provide selective benefits for those who choose their mates based on these criteria. In the first study I show that attractive men have a stronger antibody response to the hepatitis b vaccine and higher levels of testosterone than their less attractive peers. Men with low levels of testosterone also tend to have high levels of the stress hormone cortisol, suggesting that their immune responses may have been inhibited by stress hormones. Thus, facial attractiveness may serve as an honest cue of the strength of immune defence in men. In the second study, I show that the attractiveness of the male body is also a cue of better immunity. In addition, I show that adiposity, both in men’s faces and bodies, is a better cue of the strength of immunity and attractiveness than of masculinity. In the third study, I test the preferences of women from 13 countries for facial cues of testosterone and cortisol. I show that there is cross-cultural variation in women’s preference for cues of testosterone and cortisol in male faces. I found a relationship between the health of a nation and women’s preferences for cues of testosterone in the male face and the interaction between preferences for cues of testosterone and cortisol. I show also a relationship between preferences for cues of testosterone and a societal-level measure of parasite stress. Thus, it seems that societal-level ecological factors influence the relative value of traits as revealed by combinations of testosterone and stress hormones. In the fourth study, I show that women’s immune responsiveness (amount of antibodies produced) does not predict facial attractiveness. Instead, plasma cortisol level is negatively associated with attractiveness, indicating that stressed women look less attractive. Fat percentage is curvilinearly associated with facial attractiveness, indicating that being too thin or too fat reduces attractiveness. This study suggests that in contrast to men, facial attractiveness in women does not indicate the strength of immune defence, but is associated with other aspects of long-term health and fertility: circulating levels of the stress hormone cortisol and the percentage of body fat. In the last study I show that the attractiveness of men’s body odor is positively correlated with stress hormone levels, suggesting also that the attractiveness of body odors may signal the phenotypic quality of males to females. However, the attractiveness of men’s body odor was not associated with testosterone levels. My thesis suggests that the standard of beauty is not in the eye of the beholder. Instead, our standard of beauty is hardwired in our brains by genes that are selected by natural selection and also influenced by current environmental conditions.