Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

The Impact of National Innovation System on Entrepreneurial Venture Creation Process

The important role of entrepreneurship in countries’ economic development and overall society well-being is widely recognized by researchers, experts as well as policy makers. Every phase of the process of starting a new business is related to the interaction with at least one player of country innovation system and therefore the efficiency of this interaction may have an influence on the success of whole entrepreneurial process and consequently on the willingness of potential entrepreneurs to engage into this process. The study proposes a System Dynamics model for studying the impact of National Innovation System (NIS) on the entrepreneurial venture creation process. The developed model also takes country population aspect into account and provides results for estimation the effect various demographic tendencies on the process performance. The special impact is made on possible ways to facilitate the development of entrepreneurial framework conditions. Business incubators are seen as one of the effective tool for accomplishing such task. The study also provides the result for estimation of possible impact arising from properly functioned Business Incubators.

Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.

Designing Digital Filters for Servo Systems

The aim of this work was to select an appropriate digital filter for a servo application and to filter the noise from the measurement devices. Low pass filter attenuates the high frequency noise beyond the specified cut-off frequency. Digital lowpass filters in both IIR and FIR responses were designed and experimentally compared to understand their characteristics from the corresponding step responses of the system. Kaiser Windowing and Equiripple methods were selected for FIR response, whereas Butterworth, Chebyshev, InverseChebyshev and Elliptic methods were designed for IIR case. Limitations in digital filter design for a servo system were analysed. Especially the dynamic influences of each designed filter on the control stabilityof the electrical servo drive were observed. The criterion for the selection ofparameters in designing digital filters for servo systems was studied. Control system dynamics was given significant importance and the use of FIR and IIR responses in different situations were compared to justify the selection of suitableresponse in each case. The software used in the filter design was MatLab/Simulink® and dSPACE's DSP application. A speed controlled Permanent Magnet Linear synchronous Motor was used in the experimental work.

Estimating the Price and Demand Development of Some Paperboard Grades

Työn tavoitteena oli luoda malli, jonka avulla voitaisiin ennustaa kartonkituotteiden hinnan ja kysynnän kehitystä. Työssä kerättiin aluksi tietoa kartonkimarkkinoista haastattelujen ja tilastotietojen avulla. Näiden perusteella luotiin malli, joka kuvaa kartonkimarkkinoiden ja -teollisuuden rakennetta. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota asiakkaiden tilauskäyttäytymiseen, tuotannonohjaukseen sekä hinnan muodostumiseen. Työssä käytettiin ennustemenetelmänä systeemidynamiikkaa. Oleellista oli löytää systeemissä esiintyvät tärkeimmät takaisinkytkennät ja systeemin avainmuuttujat. Kun kaikille mallin muuttujille oli määritetty yhtälöt ja vakioille annettu arvot, voitiin mallia simuloida, ja saada ennusteet halutuille muuttujille. Työssä esitettiin ennusteet kartonkimarkkinoiden tärkeimmille parametreille kahden vuoden päähän. Työssä tarkasteltiin myös, miten muutokset mallin käyttäytymistä säätelevissä muuttujissa vaikuttavat tuloksiin. Jotta pystyttäisiin paremmin selvittämään koko kartonkiteollisuuden dynamiikka, lisätutkimusta tarvittaisiin vielä eri kartonkilajien substituutiomahdollisuuksista ja hintojen riippuvuuksista. Mielenkiintoista olisi myös tietää, miten tuotannon käyttöasteiden muutokset ja hinnan vaihtelut vaikuttavat liiketoiminnan kannattavuuteen valmistajien näkökulmasta.

Etelä-Karjalan aluebarometri

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli rakentaa Etelä-Karjalan maakunnan alueellinen suhdannebarometri. Aluebarometrilla kuvataan ja analysoidaan alueen toimialojen tuotannon ja työllisyyden kehitystä sekä nykytilannetta tuoreilla, havainnollisilla ja luotettavilla indikaattoreilla. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on konstruktiivinen tutkimus. Aluebarometri toteutettiin kyselytutkimuksena 454:ltä yritykseltä Etelä-Karjalan alueella keväällä 2002. Tulokset on raportoitu toimialoittain sisältäen kyselytutkimuksen 11 indikaattoria sekä kaksi tilastollista muuttujaa. Teoriaosassa tarkasteltiin aluetalouden rakentumista, aluekehitystä, yritysten sijaintiteorioita ja systeemidynamiikkaa. Barometrin konstruoinnin lisäksi empiirisessä osassa analysoitiin maakunnan yritystoiminnan ja toimialarakenteen tyypillisiä piirteitä sekä selvitettiin barometrin käyttäjäkunnan tietotarpeita. Tutkimustulosten mukaan Etelä-Karjalan yritykset odottavat aluebarometrin indikaattoreiden kehittyvän seuraavan kuuden kuukauden ajanjaksolla lievästi myönteiseen suuntaan. Myönteisintä kehitystä odotetaan myynnin ja Venäjän yleisen suhdannetilanteen suhteen. Toimialoista positiivisimmat odotukset ovat informaatioteknologian, liike-elämän palveluiden, muiden palveluiden sekä kaupan aloilla, heikoimmat puolestaan rakentamisen alalla.

Studies on the Multifaceted Interaction of Atoms and an Electromagnetic Field

In this Thesis the interaction of an electromagnetic field and matter is studied from various aspects in the general framework of cold atoms. Our subjects cover a wide spectrum of phenomena ranging from semiclassical few-level models to fully quantum mechanical interaction with structured reservoirs leading to non-Markovian open quantum system dynamics. Within closed quantum systems, we propose a selective method to manipulate the motional state of atoms in a time-dependent double-well potential and interpret the method in terms of adiabatic processes. Also, we derive a simple wave-packet model, based on distributions of generalized eigenstates, explaining the finite visibility of interference in overlapping continuous-wave atom lasers. In the context of open quantum systems, we develop an unraveling of non-Markovian dynamics in terms of piecewise deterministic quantum jump processes confined in the Hilbert space of the reduced system - the non-Markovian quantum jump method. As examples, we apply it for simple 2- and 3-level systems interacting with a structured reservoir. Also, in the context of ion-cavity QED we study the entanglement generation based on collective Dicke modes in experimentally realistic conditions including photonic losses and an atomic spontaneous decay.

Rasitusten älykäs seuranta

Tässä diplomityössä käsitellään monikappalesysteeminä mallinnetun toimilaitteen tai mekaanisen systeemin kappaleissa vaikuttavien rasitusten, siirtymien ja jännitysten laskentamenetelmiä. Työhön sisällytettyjen menetelmien valinta on toteutettu 2000-luvulla virtuaalisuunnittelua käsittelevissä tiedelehdissä julkaistujen artikkelien pohjalta. Työn tarkoituksena on muodostaa kirjallisuuskatsaus uusien laskentamenetelmien ominaisuuksista ja metodiikasta, mitä voidaan tarvittaessa soveltaa virtuaalisuunnittelun tarpeisiin. Kaksi esiteltävistä menetelmistä on optimointimenetelmiä (RBDO ja ESL). Muissa menetelmissä käsitellään muun muassa venymien rekonstruointia ja hankauskitkasta komponentteihin kohdistuvia jännityksiä. Moving frame-menetelmässä sovelletaan kelluvan koordinaatiston periaatetta, yksi menetelmistä perustuu selkeästi osarakennetekniikkaan ja yhdessä kappaleiden joustokäyttäytymistä mallinnetaan muotofunktioiden avulla. Lisäksi on kolme soveltavaa esimerkkiä rasitusten seurannasta teollisuuskoneissa. Laskentamenetelmät ovat luonteeltaan ja sovelluskelpoisuudeltaan erilaisia. Optimointimenetelmät ovat parhaimmillaan rakenteiden jatkokehitystyössä, siinä missä muut menetelmät soveltuvat joko olemassa olevien rakenteiden mallintamiseen tai kokonaan uusien systeemien suunnittelutyökaluiksi. Tätä eroavuutta voidaan pitää hyvänä asiana, jotta voidaan valita parhaiten omiin tarkoituksiin soveltuva menetelmä.

Environmental inFluences on the Adoption of Open Innovation: Analysis of Structural, Institutional and Cultural Impacts

The concept of open innovation has recently gained widespread attention, and is particularly relevant now as many firms endeavouring to implement open innovation, face different sets of challenges associated with managing it. Prior research on open innovation has focused on the internal processes dealing with open innovation implementation and the organizational changes, already taking place or yet required in companies order to succeed in the global open innovation market. Despite the intensive research on open innovation, the question of what influences its adoption by companies in different contexts has not received much attention in studies. To fill this gap, this thesis contribute to the discussion on open innovation influencing factors by bringing in the perspective of environmental impacts, i.e. gathering data on possible sources of external influences, classifying them and testing their systemic impact through conceptual system dynamics simulation model. The insights from data collection and conceptualization in modelling are used to answer the question of how the external environment affects the adoption of open innovation. The thesis research is presented through five research papers reflecting the method triangulation based study (conducted at initial stage as case study, later as quantitative analysis and finally as system dynamics simulation). This multitude of methods was used to collect the possible external influence factors and to assess their impact (on positive/negative scale rather than numerical). The results obtained throughout the thesis research bring valuable insights into understanding of open innovation influencing factors inside a firm’s operating environment, point out the balance required in the system for successful open innovation performance and discover the existence of tipping point of open innovation success when driven by market dynamics and structures. The practical implications on how firms and policy-makers can leverage environment for their potential benefits are offered in the conclusions.

Reaaliaikaisen PMU-mittaustiedon hyödyntäminen voimajärjestelmän valvonnassa

Tämä työ on tehty Fingrid Oyj:lle. Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia, miten reaaliaikaista PMU-mittaustietoa voidaan hyödyntää voimajärjestelmän valvonnassa. Voimajärjestelmän dynaamisia ilmiöitä ovat jännite- ja kulmastabiilius. Työssä tutkittiin voimajärjestelmän kulmastabiiliutta PSS/E-ohjelmalla simuloitujen mittaustulosten perusteella. Fouriermuunnoksen tulokset osoittavat, että huonoiten vaimeneva taajuuskomponentti on 0,3 Hz taajuus. Lisäksi tiedetään, että huonosti vaimeneva taajuuskomponentti rajoittaa siirtokapasiteettia. Voimajärjestelmän stabiiliutta voidaan esittää Wide Area Monitoring -järjestelmien (WAMS) avulla. WAMS perustuu Phasor Measurement -laitteen (PMU) reaaliaikaiseen mittaustekniikkaan. Jännitteen vaihekulman mittaaminen mahdollistaa voimajärjestelmän tilan määrittämisen reaaliajassa. Työssä on esitelty Fingridin käytössä oleva WAMS ja lisäksi esitelty kolmen eri laitetoimittajan WAMS:n rakennetta ja operaattorin käyttöön tarkoitettuja käyttöliittymiä. WAMS:n rakenteet ovat pääpiirteittäin samanlaisia, mutta stabiiliuden visuaalisessa esittämisessä on eroja. PMU -mittaustietoja on mahdollista tuoda käytönvalvontajärjestelmään erillisellä tiedonsiirtoprotokollalla. PMU-mittaustiedon hyödyntäminen käytönvalvontajärjestelmän toimintaaluenäytöllä mahdollistaa verkon tilan esittämisen reaaliajassa. Roottorin kulmastabiilius esitetään Fingridin käytönvalvontajärjestelmässä vaihekulmaerojen avulla ja työssä on esitetty, kuinka vaihekulmaeron arvolla on vaikutus tehonsiirtoon. Vaihekulmaeron arvo kuvaa vian jälkeisen tehoheilahtelun voimakkuutta. PMU-mittaustiedon esittäminen antaa operaattorille selkeämmän kuvan ylläpitää tehonsiirto turvallisella tasolla ja epästabiilin heilahtelun havainnoiminen vähentää suurhäiriön riskiä. Tulevaisuudessa siirtoverkon kehittyessä tarvitaan operaattorin käyttöön myös nopeita stabiilisuutta esittäviä työkaluja.

Model-Based Management

Tämä kandidaatintyö on kirjallisuustutkimus, joka selventää lukijalle mitä tarkoittaa käsite Model-Based Management (MBM). Työssä tarkastellaan keskeisiä suuntauksia, joihin MBM pohjautuu. Lisäksi tutkitaan miksi MBM on kehittynyt ja miten sitä voidaan hyödyntää yrityksissä. Nykyiset käytössä olevat johtamismallit ovat aikaansa jäljessä, eivätkä ne hyödynnä nykyteknologian luomia mahdollisuuksia. Teknologian kehityksen myötä tiedonsaanti on helpottunut ja monipuolistunut. Globalisaation seurauksena organisaatioiden toimintaympäristöt ovat monimutkaistuneet ja organisaatioiden rakenteet ovat muuttuneet. Tiedonsaannin helppous yhdistettynä yritysten monimutkaisiin rakenteisiin aiheuttaa ongelmia yrityksen johtamisen ja hallinnan kannalta. Johtajat eivät kykene ymmärtämään kokonaisuuksia, joiden kanssa he ovat tekemisissä. Kokonaisuuksien ymmärtämisessä hyödynnetään systeemiajattelua ja mallintamista. Malleja on käytetty yrityksissä jo pitkään johtamisen apuna. MBM pohjautuu siihen, että mallit ovat johtamisen lähtökohta. Mallit auttavat ymmärtämään kokonaisuuksia ja hahmottamaan eri tekijöiden yhteyksiä toisiinsa. MBM:n näkökulmasta organisaation rakenteiden mallintaminen on elintärkeää sen toimintakyvyn kannalta.

Quantitative refinement of reaction-based biomodels

In the field of molecular biology, scientists adopted for decades a reductionist perspective in their inquiries, being predominantly concerned with the intricate mechanistic details of subcellular regulatory systems. However, integrative thinking was still applied at a smaller scale in molecular biology to understand the underlying processes of cellular behaviour for at least half a century. It was not until the genomic revolution at the end of the previous century that we required model building to account for systemic properties of cellular activity. Our system-level understanding of cellular function is to this day hindered by drastic limitations in our capability of predicting cellular behaviour to reflect system dynamics and system structures. To this end, systems biology aims for a system-level understanding of functional intraand inter-cellular activity. Modern biology brings about a high volume of data, whose comprehension we cannot even aim for in the absence of computational support. Computational modelling, hence, bridges modern biology to computer science, enabling a number of assets, which prove to be invaluable in the analysis of complex biological systems, such as: a rigorous characterization of the system structure, simulation techniques, perturbations analysis, etc. Computational biomodels augmented in size considerably in the past years, major contributions being made towards the simulation and analysis of large-scale models, starting with signalling pathways and culminating with whole-cell models, tissue-level models, organ models and full-scale patient models. The simulation and analysis of models of such complexity very often requires, in fact, the integration of various sub-models, entwined at different levels of resolution and whose organization spans over several levels of hierarchy. This thesis revolves around the concept of quantitative model refinement in relation to the process of model building in computational systems biology. The thesis proposes a sound computational framework for the stepwise augmentation of a biomodel. One starts with an abstract, high-level representation of a biological phenomenon, which is materialised into an initial model that is validated against a set of existing data. Consequently, the model is refined to include more details regarding its species and/or reactions. The framework is employed in the development of two models, one for the heat shock response in eukaryotes and the second for the ErbB signalling pathway. The thesis spans over several formalisms used in computational systems biology, inherently quantitative: reaction-network models, rule-based models and Petri net models, as well as a recent formalism intrinsically qualitative: reaction systems. The choice of modelling formalism is, however, determined by the nature of the question the modeler aims to answer. Quantitative model refinement turns out to be not only essential in the model development cycle, but also beneficial for the compilation of large-scale models, whose development requires the integration of several sub-models across various levels of resolution and underlying formal representations.

Improving Cost-Efficiency and Reducing Environmental Impacts of Intermodal Transportation with Dry Port Concept – Major Rail Transport Corridor in Baltic Sea Region

Transportation plays a major role in the gross domestic product of various nations. There are, however, many obstacles hindering the transportation sector. Cost-efficiency along with proper delivery times, high frequency and reliability are not a straightforward task. Furthermore, environmental friendliness has increased the importance of the whole transportation sector. This development will change roles inside the transportation sector. Even now, but especially in the future, decisions regarding the transportation sector will be partly based on emission levels and other externalities originating from transportation in addition to pure transportation costs. There are different factors, which could have an impact on the transportation sector. IMO’s sulphur regulation is estimated to increase the costs of short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea. Price development of energy could change the roles of different transport modes. Higher awareness of the environmental impacts originating from transportation could also have an impact on the price level of more polluting transport modes. According to earlier research, increased inland transportation, modal shift and slowsteaming can be possible results of these changes in the transportation sector. Possible changes in the transportation sector and ways to settle potential obstacles are studied in this dissertation. Furthermore, means to improve cost-efficiency and to decrease environmental impacts originating from transportation are researched. Hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor are studied in this dissertation. Benefits and disadvantages are studied with different methodologies. These include gravitational models, which were optimized with linear integer programming, discrete-event and system dynamics simulation, an interview study and a case study. Geographical focus is on the Baltic Sea Region, but the results can be adapted to other geographical locations with discretion. Results indicate that the dry port concept has benefits, but optimization regarding the location and the amount of dry ports plays an important role. In addition, the utilization of dry ports for freight transportation should be carefully operated, since only a certain amount of total freight volume can be cost-efficiently transported through dry ports. If dry ports are created and located without proper planning, they could actually increase transportation costs and delivery times of the whole transportation system. With an optimized dry port network, transportation costs can be lowered in Finland with three to five dry ports. Environmental impacts can be lowered with up to nine dry ports. If more dry ports are added to the system, the benefits become very minor, i.e. payback time of investments becomes extremely long. Furthermore, dry port network could support major transport corridors such as Rail Baltica. Based on an analysis of statistics and interview study, there could be enough freight volume available for Rail Baltica, especially, if North-West Russia is part of the Northern end of the corridor. Transit traffic to and from Russia (especially through the Baltic States) plays a large role. It could be possible to increase transit traffic through Finland by connecting the potential Finnish dry port network and the studied transport corridor. Additionally, sulphur emission regulation is assumed to increase the attractiveness of Rail Baltica in the year 2015. Part of the transit traffic could be rerouted along Rail Baltica instead of the Baltic Sea, since the price level of sea transport could increase due to the sulphur regulation. Both, the hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor could benefit each other. The dry port network could gain more market share from Russia, but also from Central Europe, which is the other end of Rail Baltica. In addition, further Eastern countries could also be connected to achieve higher potential freight volume by rail.

Real-time simulation of multibody systems with applications for working mobile vehicles

This dissertation describes an approach for developing a real-time simulation for working mobile vehicles based on multibody modeling. The use of multibody modeling allows comprehensive description of the constrained motion of the mechanical systems involved and permits real-time solving of the equations of motion. By carefully selecting the multibody formulation method to be used, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the multibody model while at the same time solving equations of motion in real-time. In this study, a multibody procedure based on semi-recursive and augmented Lagrangian methods for real-time dynamic simulation application is studied in detail. In the semirecursive approach, a velocity transformation matrix is introduced to describe the dependent coordinates into relative (joint) coordinates, which reduces the size of the generalized coordinates. The augmented Lagrangian method is based on usage of global coordinates and, in that method, constraints are accounted using an iterative process. A multibody system can be modelled as either rigid or flexible bodies. When using flexible bodies, the system can be described using a floating frame of reference formulation. In this method, the deformation mode needed can be obtained from the finite element model. As the finite element model typically involves large number of degrees of freedom, reduced number of deformation modes can be obtained by employing model order reduction method such as Guyan reduction, Craig-Bampton method and Krylov subspace as shown in this study The constrained motion of the working mobile vehicles is actuated by the force from the hydraulic actuator. In this study, the hydraulic system is modeled using lumped fluid theory, in which the hydraulic circuit is divided into volumes. In this approach, the pressure wave propagation in the hoses and pipes is neglected. The contact modeling is divided into two stages: contact detection and contact response. Contact detection determines when and where the contact occurs, and contact response provides the force acting at the collision point. The friction between tire and ground is modelled using the LuGre friction model, which describes the frictional force between two surfaces. Typically, the equations of motion are solved in the full matrices format, where the sparsity of the matrices is not considered. Increasing the number of bodies and constraint equations leads to the system matrices becoming large and sparse in structure. To increase the computational efficiency, a technique for solution of sparse matrices is proposed in this dissertation and its implementation demonstrated. To assess the computing efficiency, augmented Lagrangian and semi-recursive methods are implemented employing a sparse matrix technique. From the numerical example, the results show that the proposed approach is applicable and produced appropriate results within the real-time period.