Identification and Management of Operational Risks in IT Organization of Financial Service Provider

Työn tavoitteena on tunnistaa toiminnallisia riskitekijöitä rahoituspalveluita tarjoavan yrityksen IT-organisaatiossa sekä löytää arkipäiväisiä keinoja hallita näitä riskejä. Työssä riskejä on myös tarkasteltu mahdollisen ulkoistuksen yhteydessä. Fuusiot ovat yleisiä rahoitusalan yrityksissä. Yhteenliittymien tuloksena yritysten IT-arkkitehtuuri voi olla monimutkainen ja kulttuurierot yrityksessä suuria. Synergia- ja mittakaavaetuja saadakseen yritys keskittää toimintojaan ja IT-ratkaisujaan. Riskien tunnistaminen on riskienhallintaprosessin tärkein vaihe. Tässä tutkimuksessa riskit ja riskitekijät tunnistettiin itsearvioinnin avulla kysymyssarjoja hyväksikäyttäen. Monet riskitekijät liittyivät sisäisen valvonnan ja seurannan puutteisiin. Myöhemmin näille riskeille pohdittiin työryhmässä käytännönläheisiä hallintakeinoja. Yritys voi siirtää tai jakaa IT -riskejä ulkoistamalla. Ulkoistaminen voi kuitenkin tuoda mukaan myös uusia riskitekijöitä. Ennen ulkoistamispäätöstä yrityksen sisäisten prosessien ja organisaation on oltava järjestyksessä, jotta sopimuksen kannattavuutta voidaan verrata luotettavasti saman palvelun tuottamiseen sisäisesti.

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel

Tässä diplomityössä tehtiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksella sijaitsevan käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen allasvarastointiin perustuvan välivaraston todennäköisyysperustainen ulkoisten uhkien riskianalyysi. Todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi (PRA) on yleisesti käytetty riskien tunnistus- ja lähestymistapa ydinvoimalaitoksella. Työn tarkoituksena oli laatia täysin uusi ulkoisten uhkien PRA-analyysi, koska Suomessa ei ole aiemmin tehty vastaavanlaisia tämän tutkimusalueen riskitarkasteluja. Riskitarkastelun motiivina ovat myös maailmalla tapahtuneiden luonnonkatastrofien vuoksi korostunut ulkoisten uhkien rooli käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen välivarastoinnin turvallisuudessa. PRA analyysin rakenne pohjautui tutkimuksen alussa luotuun metodologiaan. Analyysi perustuu mahdollisten ulkoisten uhkien tunnistamiseen pois lukien ihmisen aikaansaamat tahalliset vahingot. Tunnistettujen ulkoisten uhkien esiintymistaajuuksien ja vahingoittamispotentiaalin perusteella ulkoiset uhat joko karsittiin pois tutkimuksessa määriteltyjen karsintakriteerien avulla tai analysoitiin tarkemmin. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että tiedot hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ovat epätäydellisiä. Suurinta osaa näistä hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ei ole koskaan esiintynyt eikä todennäköisesti koskaan tule esiintymään Olkiluodon vaikutusalueella tai edes Suomessa. Esimerkiksi salaman iskujen ja öljyaltistuksen roolit ja vaikutukset erilaisten komponenttien käytettävyyteen ovat epävarmasti tunnettuja. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan pitää kokonaisuudessaan merkittävinä, koska niiden perusteella voidaan osoittaa ne ulkoiset uhat, joiden vaikutuksia olisi syytä tutkia tarkemmin. Yksityiskohtaisempi tietoisuus hyvin harvoin esiintyvistä ulkoisista uhista tarkentaisi alkutapahtumataajuuksien estimaatteja.

Performance improvement in mediterranean operations using risk management analysis : Case study of Containerships Group Ltd

Emerging markets of Northern Africa and Turkey provide growth opportunities for logistics service companies in the middle of low growth environment of European Union. The purpose of this research is to explore and analyze the risk factors in container shipping industry and third party logistics (3PL) services. The research empirically examined the risk factors, which are related within the interaction between these two parties in emerging markets of Mediterranean area. The previous studies have provided a valuable insight into the operational risks faced by container shipping industries. However, most of these studies have focused on one or several operational risk factors from a single point of view, and no studies have inclusively examined the possible operational risks faced in the container shipping industry from dual perspective of 3PL provider and its customers. A questionnaire has been deployed to collect related data; and the impacts of the risks were then be assessed and ranked using the method of risk mapping. Respondents were located in Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Research presents the most important risk factors identified, and compares them between 3PL provider and its customers. The research also provide some risk mitigation strategies for the key risk factors, and tried to figure out a common risk picture, which guides the managers in both sides to have a better decisions and as a result, improve the performance of the container shipping operations. Challenge during project execution time was that customers identified vast amount of more risks than what was the case with logistics service operator.

POLITICAL RISK IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

Russia approved ambitious reform plan for the electricity sector in 2001 including privatisation of the country’s huge thermal generation assets. So far the sector had suffered from power shortages, aging infrastructure, substantial electricity losses, and weak productivity and profitability numbers. There was obvious need for foreign investments and technologies. The reform was rather successful; the generation assets were privatised in auctions in 2007-2008 and three European energy companies, E.On, Enel and Fortum, invested in and obtained together over 10% of the Russian production assets. The novelty of these foreign investments serves unique object for the study. The political risk is involved in the FDI due to the industry’s social and economic importance. The research’s objective was to identify and analyse the political risk that foreign investors face in the Russian electricity sector. The research had qualitative study method and the empirical data was collected by interviewing. The research’s theoretical framework was based on the existing political risk theories and it focused to understand the Russian government in relation to the country’s stability and define both macro-level and micro-level sources of political risk for the foreign direct investments in the sector. The research concludes that the centralised and obscure political decision-making, economic constriction, high level of governmental control in economy and corruption form the country’s internal macro-level risk sources for the foreign investors in the sector. Additionally the retribution due to the companies’ home country actions, possible violent confrontations at the Russian borders and the currency instability are externally originated risk sources. In the electricity industry there is risk of tightened governmental control and increased regulation and taxation. Similarly the company-level risk sources link to the unreformed heating sector, bargaining with the authorities, diplomatic stress between host and home countries and to companies and government’s divergent perspective for the profit-making. The research stresses the foreign companies’ ability to cope with the characteristics of Russian political environment. In addition to frequent political and market risk assessment, the companies need to focus on currency protection against rouble’s rate fluctuation and actively build good company-citizenship in the country. Good relationship is needed with the Russian political authorities. The political risk identification and the research’s conclusive framework also enable political risk study assessments for other industries in Russia

Pk-yrityksen toimitusketjun liiketoimintariskien arviointityökalu

Riskienhallinta auttaa yritystä toimittamaan sovitut tuotteet ja palvelut ajallaan sekä oikean laatuisina. Riskienhallinnassa on tärkeää ottaa huomioon koko toimitusketju, sekä sen hallinta ja kehittäminen, sillä tätä kautta riskienhallinnasta saadaan mahdollisimman kattava. Yrityksen ja riskienhallinnan kannalta liiketoimintariskit ovat erittäin merkityksellisiä, sillä ne ovat usein erittäin vaikeasti hahmotettavia ja hallittavia. Tämä koskee erityisesti pk-yrityksiä. Riskienhallintaa voidaan helpottaa riskienarviointityökalun ja -hallintaprosessin avulla. Riskienhallintaprosessin avulla voidaan suorittaa järjestelmällisesti riskien tunnistamista ja arviointia, sekä suunnitella ja toteuttaa tarvittavat riskienhallintatoimenpiteet. Riskien arvioinnin tarkoituksena on löytää kaikkein merkityksellisimmät riskit. Riskin merkittävyyden tärkeimmät osat ovat riskin vakavuus ja todennäköisyys. Riskienhallinnan tulisi olla osa yrityksen jokapäiväistä toimintaa, ja sitä tulisi tehdä järjestelmällisesti. Tässä voidaan käyttää apuna riskienarviointityökalua, jonka tarkoituksena on auttaa yritystä parantamaan riskienhallintatasoa ja yrityksen kykyä vastata paremmin asiakkaiden toiveisiin ja vaatimuksiin.

Mapping financial stability

The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Approaches to Supply Chain Risk Management: Identification, Analysis and Control

Supply chain risk management has emerged as an increasingly important issue in logistics as disruptions in the supply chain have become critical issues for many companies. The scientific literature on the subject is developing and in many respects the understanding of it is still in its infancy. Thus, there is a need for more information in order for scholars and practitioners to understand the causalities and interrelations that characterise the phenomenon. The aim of this dissertation is to narrow this gap by exploring key aspects of supply chain risk management through two maritime supply chains in the immediate region of the Gulf of Finland. The study contributes to the field in three different ways. Firstly, it facilitates the identification of risks on different levels of the supply chain through a systematic analysis of the processes and actors, and of the cognitive barriers that limit the actors’ visibility and their understanding of the operations and the risks involved. There is a clear need to increase collaboration and information exchange in order to improve visibility in the chain. Risk management should be a collaborative effort among the individual actors, aimed at obtaining a holistic picture. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on risk analysis through the use of systemic frameworks that illustrate the causalities and linkages in the system, thereby making it easier to perceive the vulnerabilities. Thirdly, the study enhances current knowledge of risk control in identifying actor roles, risk visibility and risk controllability as being among the key factors determining risk-management effectiveness against supply-chain vulnerability. This dissertation is divided into two parts. The first part gives a general overview of the relevant literature, the research design and the conclusions of the study, and the second part comprises six research publications. Case-study methodology with systematic combining approach is used, where in-depth interviews, questionnaires and expert panel sessions are the main data collection methods. The study illustrates the current state of risk management in multimodal maritime supply chains, and develops frameworks for further analysis. The results imply that there are major differences between organizations in their ability to execute supply chain risk management. Further collaboration should be considered in order to facilitate the development of systematic and effective management processes.

Boundary identification in the domain of a parabolic partial differential equation

Bakgrunden och inspirationen till föreliggande studie är tidigare forskning i tillämpningar på randidentifiering i metallindustrin. Effektiv randidentifiering möjliggör mindre säkerhetsmarginaler och längre serviceintervall för apparaturen i industriella högtemperaturprocesser, utan ökad risk för materielhaverier. I idealfallet vore en metod för randidentifiering baserad på uppföljning av någon indirekt variabel som kan mätas rutinmässigt eller till en ringa kostnad. En dylik variabel för smältugnar är temperaturen i olika positioner i väggen. Denna kan utnyttjas som insignal till en randidentifieringsmetod för att övervaka ugnens väggtjocklek. Vi ger en bakgrund och motivering till valet av den geometriskt endimensionella dynamiska modellen för randidentifiering, som diskuteras i arbetets senare del, framom en flerdimensionell geometrisk beskrivning. I de aktuella industriella tillämpningarna är dynamiken samt fördelarna med en enkel modellstruktur viktigare än exakt geometrisk beskrivning. Lösningsmetoder för den s.k. sidledes värmeledningsekvationen har många saker gemensamt med randidentifiering. Därför studerar vi egenskaper hos lösningarna till denna ekvation, inverkan av mätfel och något som brukar kallas förorening av mätbrus, regularisering och allmännare följder av icke-välställdheten hos sidledes värmeledningsekvationen. Vi studerar en uppsättning av tre olika metoder för randidentifiering, av vilka de två första är utvecklade från en strikt matematisk och den tredje från en mera tillämpad utgångspunkt. Metoderna har olika egenskaper med specifika fördelar och nackdelar. De rent matematiskt baserade metoderna karakteriseras av god noggrannhet och låg numerisk kostnad, dock till priset av låg flexibilitet i formuleringen av den modellbeskrivande partiella differentialekvationen. Den tredje, mera tillämpade, metoden kännetecknas av en sämre noggrannhet förorsakad av en högre grad av icke-välställdhet hos den mera flexibla modellen. För denna gjordes även en ansats till feluppskattning, som senare kunde observeras överensstämma med praktiska beräkningar med metoden. Studien kan anses vara en god startpunkt och matematisk bas för utveckling av industriella tillämpningar av randidentifiering, speciellt mot hantering av olinjära och diskontinuerliga materialegenskaper och plötsliga förändringar orsakade av “nedfallande” väggmaterial. Med de behandlade metoderna förefaller det möjligt att uppnå en robust, snabb och tillräckligt noggrann metod av begränsad komplexitet för randidentifiering.

Identifying first graders at risk of reading and writing difficulties : creating a group-based screening tool in kiswahili in Tanzania

Early identification of beginning readers at risk of developing reading and writing difficulties plays an important role in the prevention and provision of appropriate intervention. In Tanzania, as in other countries, there are children in schools who are at risk of developing reading and writing difficulties. Many of these children complete school without being identified and without proper and relevant support. The main language in Tanzania is Kiswahili, a transparent language. Contextually relevant, reliable and valid instruments of identification are needed in Tanzanian schools. This study aimed at the construction and validation of a group-based screening instrument in the Kiswahili language for identifying beginning readers at risk of reading and writing difficulties. In studying the function of the test there was special interest in analyzing the explanatory power of certain contextual factors related to the home and school. Halfway through grade one, 337 children from four purposively selected primary schools in Morogoro municipality were screened with a group test consisting of 7 subscales measuring phonological awareness, word and letter knowledge and spelling. A questionnaire about background factors and the home and school environments related to literacy was also used. The schools were chosen based on performance status (i.e. high, good, average and low performing schools) in order to include variation. For validation, 64 children were chosen from the original sample to take an individual test measuring nonsense word reading, word reading, actual text reading, one-minute reading and writing. School marks from grade one and a follow-up test half way through grade two were also used for validation. The correlations between the results from the group test and the three measures used for validation were very high (.83-.95). Content validity of the group test was established by using items drawn from authorized text books for reading in grade one. Construct validity was analyzed through item analysis and principal component analysis. The difficulty level of most items in both the group test and the follow-up test was good. The items also discriminated well. Principal component analysis revealed one powerful latent dimension (initial literacy factor), accounting for 93% of the variance. This implies that it could be possible to use any set of the subtests of the group test for screening and prediction. The K-Means cluster analysis revealed four clusters: at-risk children, strugglers, readers and good readers. The main concern in this study was with the groups of at-risk children (24%) and strugglers (22%), who need the most assistance. The predictive validity of the group test was analyzed by correlating the measures from the two school years and by cross tabulating grade one and grade two clusters. All the correlations were positive and very high, and 94% of the at-risk children in grade two were already identified in the group test in grade one. The explanatory power of some of the home and school factors was very strong. The number of books at home accounted for 38% of the variance in reading and writing ability measured by the group test. Parents´ reading ability and the support children received at home for schoolwork were also influential factors. Among the studied school factors school attendance had the strongest explanatory power, accounting for 21% of the variance in reading and writing ability. Having been in nursery school was also of importance. Based on the findings in the study a short version of the group test was created. It is suggested for use in the screening processes in grade one aiming at identifying children at risk of reading and writing difficulties in the Tanzanian context. Suggestions for further research as well as for actions for improving the literacy skills of Tanzanian children are presented.

The effectiveness of short-term literacy skills intervention on children at risk of reading and writing difficulties in Tanzania : a study of grade one children with dynamic assessment approach

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate an intervention programme for Tanzanian children from a low-income area who are at risk of reading and writing difficulties. The learning difficulties, including reading and writing difficulties, are likely to be behind many of the common school problems in Tanzania, but they are not well understood, and research is needed. The design of the study included an identification and intervention phase with follow-up. A group based dynamic assessment approach was used in identifying children at risk of difficulties in reading and writing. The same approach was used in the intervention. The study was a randomized experiment with one experimental and two control groups. For the experimental and the control groups, a total of 96 (46 girls and 50 boys) children from grade one were screened out of 301 children from two schools in a low income urban area of Dar-es-Salaam. One third of the children, the experimental group, participated in an intensive training programme in literacy skills for five weeks, six hours per week, aimed at promoting reading and writing ability, while the children in the control groups had a mathematics and art programme. Follow-up was performed five months after the intervention. The intervention programme and the tests were based on the Zambian BASAT (Basic Skill Assessment Tool, Ketonen & Mulenga, 2003), but the content was drawn from the Kiswahili school curriculum in Tanzania. The main components of the training and testing programme were the same, only differing in content. The training process was different from traditional training in Tanzanian schools in that principles of teaching and training in dynamic assessment were followed. Feedback was the cornerstone of the training and the focus was on supporting the children in exploring knowledge and strategies in performing the tasks. The experimental group improved significantly more (p = .000) than the control groups during the intervention from pre-test to follow-up (repeated measures ANOVA). No differences between the control groups were noticed. The effect was significant on all the measures: phonological awareness, reading skills, writing skills and overall literacy skills. A transfer effect on school marks in Kiswahili and English was found. Following a discussion of the results, suggestions for further research and adaptation of the programme are presented.