The Pay-Off Method as a Tool for Evaluating the Risk and Profitability of Public Real Estate Investments

Real option valuation, in particular the fuzzy pay-off method, has proven to be useful in defining risk and visualizing imprecision of investments in various industry applications. This study examines whether the evaluation of risk and profitability for public real estate investments can be improved by using real option methodology. Firstly, the context of real option valuation in the real estate industry is examined. Further, an empirical case study is performed on 30 real estate investments of a Finnish government enterprise in order to determine whether the presently used investment analysis system can be complemented by the pay-off method. Despite challenges in the application of the pay-off method to the case company’s large investment base, real option valuation is found to create additional value and facilitate more robust risk analysis in public real estate applications.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Internationalization of an SME through FDI as mode of entry - Case Real Estate Company

This study examines international entry of an SME to Brazil using foreign direct investment as a mode of entry. The case company discussed is a small real estate investment company that has operated in Finland and has recently internationalized to Brazil. The work examines how does an SME internationalize, what entry mode is advisable to use and it gives a brief insight of the Brazilian market today.

The effects of real time control of welding parameters on weld quality in plasma arc keyhole welding

Joints intended for welding frequently show variations in geometry and position, for which it is unfortunately not possible to apply a single set of operating parameters to ensure constant quality. The cause of this difficulty lies in a number of factors, including inaccurate joint preparation and joint fit up, tack welds, as well as thermal distortion of the workpiece. In plasma arc keyhole welding of butt joints, deviations in the gap width may cause weld defects such as an incomplete weld bead, excessive penetration and burn through. Manual adjustment of welding parameters to compensate for variations in the gap width is very difficult, and unsatisfactory weld quality is often obtained. In this study a control system for plasma arc keyhole welding has been developed and used to study the effects of the real time control of welding parameters on gap tolerance during welding of austenitic stainless steel AISI 304L. The welding tests demonstrated the beneficial effect of real time control on weld quality. Compared with welding using constant parameters, the maximum tolerable gap width with an acceptable weld quality was 47% higher when using the real time controlled parameters for a plate thickness of 5 mm. In addition, burn through occurred with significantly larger gap widths when parameters were controlled in real time. Increased gap tolerance enables joints to be prepared and fit up less accurately, saving time and preparation costs for welding. In addition to the control system, a novel technique for back face monitoring is described in this study. The test results showed that the technique could be successfully applied for penetration monitoring when welding non magnetic materials. The results also imply that it is possible to measure the dimensions of the plasma efflux or weld root, and use this information in a feedback control system and, thus, maintain the required weld quality.

Real-Time Simulation of Mobile and Industrial Machines Using the Multibody Simulation Approach

This thesis introduces a real-time simulation environment based on the multibody simulation approach. The environment consists of components that are used in conventional product development, including computer aided drawing, visualization, dynamic simulation and finite element software architecture, data transfer and haptics. These components are combined to perform as a coupled system on one platform. The environment is used to simulate mobile and industrial machines at different stages of a product life time. Consequently, the demands of the simulated scenarios vary. In this thesis, a real-time simulation environment based on the multibody approach is used to study a reel mechanism of a paper machine and a gantry crane. These case systems are used to demonstrate the usability of the real-time simulation environment for fault detection purposes and in the context of a training simulator. In order to describe the dynamical performance of a mobile or industrial machine, the nonlinear equations of motion must be defined. In this thesis, the dynamical behaviour of machines is modelled using the multibody simulation approach. A multibody system may consist of rigid and flexible bodies which are joined using kinematic joint constraints while force components are used to describe the actuators. The strength of multibody dynamics relies upon its ability to describe nonlinearities arising from wearing of the components, friction, large rotations or contact forces in a systematic manner. For this reason, the interfaces between subsystems such as mechanics, hydraulics and control systems of the mechatronic machine can be defined and analyzed in a straightforward manner.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.