Developing Support for Scenario Process: A Scenario Study on Lappeenranta University of Technology from 2006 to 2016

Epävarmuus ei ole outoa enää julkishallinon alueellakaan. Globalisaation,tietotalous ja muut yksityissektoria ravistelleet ilmiöt ovat lisänneet mielenkiintoa erilaisiin tekniikoihin joilla voidaan lievittää epävarmuudesta aiheutuvia ongelmia. Tämä raportti kuvailee skenaariosuunnittelun käyttöä eräänä mahdollisuutena epävarmuuden hallintaan julkishallinnossa ja yksityissektorilla. Raportti sijoittuu samaan skenaariotutkimuksen jatkumoon edellisten LTY:ssä toteutettujen skenaariotutkimusten kanssa. tutkimus valottaa tutkimuksen ja käytännön työn nykytilaa helposti hyödynnettävässä muodossa. Rapostin kontribuutio on kuvata tutkimukseen perustuva tuettu skenaarioprosessi ja syntyneet skenaariot, keskittyen prosessin tukemiseen eri menetelmin.

Public-Private Partnerships: Managing organizational change for acquiring value creative capabilities

The objective of the dissertation is to examine organizational responses of public actors to customer requirements which drive the transformation of value networks and promote public-private partnership in the electricity distribution industry and elderly care sectors. The research bridges the concept of offering to value networks where capabilities can be acquired for novel product concepts. The research contributes to recent literature, re-examining theories on interactions of customer requirements and supply management. A critical realist case study approach is applied to this abductive the research which directs to describe causalities in the analyzed phenomena. The presented evidence is based on three sources, which are in-depth interviews, archival analysis and the Delphi method. Service provision requires awareness on technology and functionalities of offering. Moreover, service provision includes interactions of multiple partners, which suggests the importance of the co-operative orientation of actors. According to the findings,portfolio management has a key role when intelligent solutions are implemented in public service provision because its concepts involve a variety of resources from multiple suppliers. However, emergent networks are not functional if they lack leaders who have access to the customer interface, have power to steer networks and a capability to build offerings. Public procurement policies were recognized to focus on a narrow scope in which price is a key factor in decisions. In the future, the public sector has to implement technology strategies and portfolio management, which mean longterm platform development and commitment to partnerships. On the other hand, the service providers should also be more aware of offerings into which their products will be integrated in the future. This requires making the customer’s voice in product development and co-operation in order to increase the interconnectivity of products.

Analysis and validation of space averaged drag model for numerical simulations of gas-solid flows in fluidized beds

This thesis presents an approach for formulating and validating a space averaged drag model for coarse mesh simulations of gas-solid flows in fluidized beds using the two-fluid model. Proper modeling for fluid dynamics is central in understanding any industrial multiphase flow. The gas-solid flows in fluidized beds are heterogeneous and usually simulated with the Eulerian description of phases. Such a description requires the usage of fine meshes and small time steps for the proper prediction of its hydrodynamics. Such constraint on the mesh and time step size results in a large number of control volumes and long computational times which are unaffordable for simulations of large scale fluidized beds. If proper closure models are not included, coarse mesh simulations for fluidized beds do not give reasonable results. The coarse mesh simulation fails to resolve the mesoscale structures and results in uniform solids concentration profiles. For a circulating fluidized bed riser, such predicted profiles result in a higher drag force between the gas and solid phase and also overestimated solids mass flux at the outlet. Thus, there is a need to formulate the closure correlations which can accurately predict the hydrodynamics using coarse meshes. This thesis uses the space averaging modeling approach in the formulation of closure models for coarse mesh simulations of the gas-solid flow in fluidized beds using Geldart group B particles. In the analysis of formulating the closure correlation for space averaged drag model, the main parameters for the modeling were found to be the averaging size, solid volume fraction, and distance from the wall. The closure model for the gas-solid drag force was formulated and validated for coarse mesh simulations of the riser, which showed the verification of this modeling approach. Coarse mesh simulations using the corrected drag model resulted in lowered values of solids mass flux. Such an approach is a promising tool in the formulation of appropriate closure models which can be used in coarse mesh simulations of large scale fluidized beds.

Logistics of North-West Russia and Rail Baltica: Standpoints of Private Sector

The main aims of the present report are to describe the current state of railway transport in Russia, and to gather standpoints of Russian private transportation logistics sector towards the development of new railway connection called Rail Baltica Growth Corridor, connecting North-West Russia with Germany through the Baltic States and Poland. North-West Russia plays important role not only in Russian logistics, but also wider European markets as in container sea ports handling is approx. 2.5 mill. TEU p.a. and handling volume in all terminals is above 190 million tons p.a. The whole transportation logistics sector is shortly described as an operational environment for railways – this is done through technical and economic angles. Transportation development is always going in line with economics of the country, so the analysis on economical development is also presented. Logistics integration of the country is strongly influenced by its engagement in the international trade. Although, raw material handling at sea ports and container transports (imports) are blossoming, domestic transportation market is barely growing (in long-term perspective). Thus, recent entrance of Russia into World Trade Organization (WTO) is analyzed theme in this research, as the WTO is an important regulator of the foreign trade and enabler of volume growth in foreign trade related transportation logistics. However, WTO membership can influence negatively the development of Russia’s own industry and its volumes (these have been uncompetitive in global markets for decades). Data gathering in empirical part was accomplished by semi-structured case study interviews among North-West Russian logistics sector actors (private). These were conducted during years 2012-2013, and research compiles findings out of ten case company interviews. Although, there was no sea port involved in the study, most of the interviewed companies relied in European Logistics within significant parts in short sea shipping and truck combined transportation chains (in Russian part also using railways). As the results of the study, it could be concluded that Rail Baltica is seen as possible transport corridor in most of the interviewed companies, if there is enough cargo available. However, interviewees are a bit sceptical, because major and large-scale infrastructural improvements are needed. Delivery time, frequency and price level are three main factors influencing the attractiveness of Rail Baltica route. Price level is the most important feature, but if RB can offer other advantages such as higher frequency, shorter lead times or more developed set of value-added services, then some flexibility is possible for the price level. Environmental issues are not the main criteria of today, but are recognized and discussed among customers. Great uncertainty exists among respondents e.g. on forthcoming sulphur oxide ban on Baltic Sea shipping (whether or not it is going to be implemented in Russia). Rather surprisingly, transportation routes to Eastern Europe and Mediterranean area are having higher value and price space than those to Germany/Central Europe. Border crossing operations (traction monopoly at rails and customs), gauge widths as well as unclear decision-making processes (in Russia), are named as hindering factors. Performance standards for European connected logistics among Russian logistics sector representatives are less demanding as compared to neighbourhood countries belonging to EU.

Public and private sector cooperative opportunities in the Finnish healthcare internationalization : views from the public sector’s perspective

Traditionally mostly publicly provided Finnish healthcare services are confronted today by the evident challenge of rising healthcare costs as the expenditure on health and social case has exceeded Finland’s national GDP growth significantly since the new millennium. While the opening of the traditional barriers through the EU’s new patient directive resulting in increasing international competition and the free flow of patients within the EU present opportunities for the Finnish healthcare services industry there are also several challenges for the existing healthcare system as proposed by the Ministry of Employment and the Economy in 2011. Due to the structure and nature of the current Finnish healthcare service system the greatest potential for internationalization is seen from a joint cooperation of the public and private sectors in an internationalization network for Finnish healthcare services. As its formation has recently also taken as a strategic initiative to be completed by the Ministry of Employment and the Economy and no earlier research exists on how this is seen in practice by the network actors, the purpose of this study is to examine the proposed solution of forming an internationalization network between the public and private sector actors in Finland in practice from the viewpoint of public sector actors. The research relied heavily on the reports by the Finnish Ministries in understanding the current situation of the Finnish healthcare services internationalization and its potential. Suitable theories were also used to build a more comprehensive view of the matter. The study applied a qualitative research approach on the explorative research problem. The data collection was achieved through expert interviews in two of the largest Finnish public healthcare service providers; the Turku and Helsinki Central University Hospitals. Expert interviews were considered as the most suitable method for data collection in order to create an in-depth understanding of the topic within the limitations of this thesis. In turn, two different public healthcare service providers were chosen to give a broader view of the field instead of focusing on a specific unit and also to allow a possible comparison between the two different organizations. The latter however was shown not to be suitable for the purposes of this study as the opinions of the respondents varied largely also within their own organizations. The conclusion is that while the actors agree on the evident internationalization of Finnish healthcare services, there are several large-scale structural challenges effectively preventing such activities while at the same time the opportunities within Finland vary, as there are several niches but no real large-scale advantages in the highly competitive industry. Interest towards cooperation between the sectors are seen especially in exploiting the advantages offered by the private sector in commercialization and marketization, yet however no clear views exist on how these activities should be governed or structured in the short-term as a larger reform of the entire Finnish healthcare service sector is needed in the long-term.

The Purdue University Research Repository (PURR): An institutional data management service with a virtual research environment, data publication, and archiving

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Potilaan tiedollinen yksityisyys heräämössä

Tutkielman tarkoituksena oli kuvata potilaan kokemuksia tiedollisesta yksityisyydestään sekä tiedollista yksityisyyttä edistäviä ja estäviä tekijöitä heräämössä. Tämän tiedon pohjalta on mahdollista kehittää heräämön hoitotyötä potilaiden tiedollisen yksityisyyden osalta. Tutkimus toteutettiin kuvailevana haastattelututkimuksena. Aineisto kerättiin puolistrukturoidun teemahaastattelun avulla. Tutkimuksessa haastateltiin yhden suomalaisen yliopistosairaalan korva-, nenä- ja kurkkutautien (KNK) klinikan heräämössä hoidettuja aikuispotilaita 1-2 tunnin kuluessa heräämöhoidon päättymisestä. Haastatteluaineisto koostui 17:stä päiväkirurgisen – tai vuodeosastopotilaan haastattelusta. Tallennetut haastattelut litteroitiin ja aineisto analysoitiin induktiivisella sisällönanalyysillä. Potilaat kuvasivat tiedollista yksityisyyttä potilaan tietojen hallintana: potilaan tietojen luottamuksellisena käsittelynä ja oikeutena omiin tietoihin. Tiedollista yksityisyyttä pidettiin tärkeänä, mutta potilaat eivät olleet erityisen huolissaan tämän toteutumisesta heräämössä. Tiedollinen yksityisyys toteutui potilaiden mielestä melko hyvin heräämössä lukuun ottamatta tilanteita, joissa henkilökunta vaihtoi suullisesti tietoja potilaasta keskenään. Suurin osa potilaista totesi KNK-vaivojen olevan niin neutraaleja, ettei niiden joutuminen ulkopuolisten tietoon ollut heistä merkityksellistä. Tieto leikkauksesta kiinnosti potilaita ja he olivat tyytyväisiä saatuaan siitä tietoa heräämössä. Tiedollisen yksityisyyden toteutumista edistivät potilaan uppoutuminen omaan maailmaansa, mahdollisuus kontrolloida ja saada tietoa asioistaan, kahdenkeskinen vuorovaikutus, tieto tiedollisesta yksityisyydestä, heräämön tilajärjestelyt ja tiedollista yksityisyyttä koskevien sääntöjen noudattaminen. Muiden potilaiden uteliaisuus, potilaan kyvyttömyys suojata omia tietojaan ja ulkopuolisuus omissa asioissaan, kahdenkeskeisen vuorovaikutuksen mahdottomuus, yksityisen tilan puute ja tiedollista yksityisyyttä koskevan sääntelyn noudattamattomuus koettiin tietojen luottamuksellisen käsittelyn esteiksi heräämössä. Potilaiden tietojen luottamuksellista käsittelyä voitaisiin parantaa kiinnittämällä huomiota raportointimenetelmiin ja -paikkaan heräämössä. Käytettävissä olevia keinoja, kuten sermejä ja potilaiden sijoittelu heräämössä, kannattaa käyttää hyödyksi potilaan tiedollisen yksityisyyden suojaamiseksi. Tiedollisen yksityisyyden määritelmää tulisi jatkossa täsmentää käsiteanalyysin avulla. Lisäksi tiedollista yksityisyyttä olisi hyvä tutkia hoitotyön ympäristöissä, joissa potilaiden hoitoon liittyy mahdollisesti arkaluonteisempia tietoja kuin KNK- potilailla.

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian filtering for state space models

This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

Guidelines for small embedded system companies aiming to enter the space industry

This guide summarizes useful information about the European Space Agency (ESA), the European space industry, the ECSS standards and product assurance for small and medium enterprises that are aiming to enter the industry. Additionally, the applicability of agile development in space projects is discussed.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.