Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Identifying first graders at risk of reading and writing difficulties : creating a group-based screening tool in kiswahili in Tanzania

Early identification of beginning readers at risk of developing reading and writing difficulties plays an important role in the prevention and provision of appropriate intervention. In Tanzania, as in other countries, there are children in schools who are at risk of developing reading and writing difficulties. Many of these children complete school without being identified and without proper and relevant support. The main language in Tanzania is Kiswahili, a transparent language. Contextually relevant, reliable and valid instruments of identification are needed in Tanzanian schools. This study aimed at the construction and validation of a group-based screening instrument in the Kiswahili language for identifying beginning readers at risk of reading and writing difficulties. In studying the function of the test there was special interest in analyzing the explanatory power of certain contextual factors related to the home and school. Halfway through grade one, 337 children from four purposively selected primary schools in Morogoro municipality were screened with a group test consisting of 7 subscales measuring phonological awareness, word and letter knowledge and spelling. A questionnaire about background factors and the home and school environments related to literacy was also used. The schools were chosen based on performance status (i.e. high, good, average and low performing schools) in order to include variation. For validation, 64 children were chosen from the original sample to take an individual test measuring nonsense word reading, word reading, actual text reading, one-minute reading and writing. School marks from grade one and a follow-up test half way through grade two were also used for validation. The correlations between the results from the group test and the three measures used for validation were very high (.83-.95). Content validity of the group test was established by using items drawn from authorized text books for reading in grade one. Construct validity was analyzed through item analysis and principal component analysis. The difficulty level of most items in both the group test and the follow-up test was good. The items also discriminated well. Principal component analysis revealed one powerful latent dimension (initial literacy factor), accounting for 93% of the variance. This implies that it could be possible to use any set of the subtests of the group test for screening and prediction. The K-Means cluster analysis revealed four clusters: at-risk children, strugglers, readers and good readers. The main concern in this study was with the groups of at-risk children (24%) and strugglers (22%), who need the most assistance. The predictive validity of the group test was analyzed by correlating the measures from the two school years and by cross tabulating grade one and grade two clusters. All the correlations were positive and very high, and 94% of the at-risk children in grade two were already identified in the group test in grade one. The explanatory power of some of the home and school factors was very strong. The number of books at home accounted for 38% of the variance in reading and writing ability measured by the group test. Parents´ reading ability and the support children received at home for schoolwork were also influential factors. Among the studied school factors school attendance had the strongest explanatory power, accounting for 21% of the variance in reading and writing ability. Having been in nursery school was also of importance. Based on the findings in the study a short version of the group test was created. It is suggested for use in the screening processes in grade one aiming at identifying children at risk of reading and writing difficulties in the Tanzanian context. Suggestions for further research as well as for actions for improving the literacy skills of Tanzanian children are presented.

Blackcurrant seed oil for prevention of atopic dermatitis

One hypothesis for the increased incidence of atopic diseases has been that it is associated with changing dietary habits, especially the changed intake of essential fatty acids (EFAs). The metabolism of EFAs produces eiconasoids, prostaglandins and leukotrienes, which are essential to organs and play a major role in regulation of inflammation and immune response. In some studies persons with atopic dermatitis have been found to have reduced levels of EFAs. The first year of infancy as well as the foetal period are crucial for the development of atopic immune response. The composition of blackcurrant seed oil (BCSO) corresponds to the recommended ratio of EFAs n-3 and n-6 in the diet (1/3-1/4) and as a dietary supplement could, even in small doses, modify the unbalance of EFAs in an efficient way. The purpose of this study was to find out whether atopic allergies can be prevented by supplementing the diet of pregnant mothers with blackcurrant seed oil and whether it could affect the immunological balance of a child. We also sought to find out whether a blackcurrant seed oil supplementation can affect the composition of breast milk to suppress the T helper 2 lymphocyte (Th2) responses in infants. 313 pregnant mothers were randomly assigned to receive BCSO (n=151) or olive oil as placebo (n=162). Supplementation was started at the 8th to 16th weeks of pregnancy, 6 capsules per day (dose of 3 g), and continued until the cessation of breastfeeding. It was thereafter followed by direct supplementation to infants of 1 ml (1 g) of oil per day until the age of two years. Atopic dermatitis and its severity (SCORAD index) were evaluated, serum total IgE was measured and skin prick tests were performed at the age of 3, 12 and 24 months. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples were taken at the age of 3 and 12 months and breast milk samples were collected during the first 3 months of breastfeeding. Parental atopy was common (81.7%) in the studied infants, making them infants with increased atopy risk. There was a significantly lower prevalence of atopic dermatitis in the BCSO group (33%) than in the olive oil group (47%) at the age of 12 months. Also, SCORAD was lower in the BCSO group than in the olive oil group. Dietary intervention with BCSO had immunomodulatory effects on breast milk, inducing cytokine production from Th2 to Th1 immunodeviation. It decreased the level of IL-4 and elevated the level of IFN-γ. BCSO intervention did not affect cytokines in the children’s PBMC. However, children of smoking parents in the combined BCSO and olive oil group had significantly elevated levels of Th2 type cytokines IL-4, IL-5 and the proinflammator cytokine TNF. Dietary supplementation with BCSO is safe. It is well tolerated and transiently reduces the prevalence of atopic dermatitis at the age of 12 months. It can possibly become a potential tool in prevention of atopic symptoms when used at the early stages of life.

Improving oral healthcare in Scotland with special reference to sustainability and caries prevention

Brett Duane Improving oral healthcare in Scotland with special reference to sustainability and caries prevention University of Turku, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Dentistry, Community Dentistry, Finnish Doctoral Program in Oral Sciences (FINDOS-Turku), Turku, Finland Annales Universitatis Turkuensis, Sarja- Ser. D, Medica-Odontologica. Painosalama Oy, Turku, Finland, 2015. Dentistry must provide sustainable, evidence-based, and prevention-focused care. In Scotland oral health prevention is delivered through the Childsmile programme, with an increasing use of high concentration fluoride toothpaste (HCFT). Compared with other countries there is little knowledge of xylitol prevention. The UK government has set strict carbon emission limits with which all national health services (NHS) must comply. The purpose of these studies was firstly to describe the Scottish national oral health prevention programme Childsmile (CS), to determine if the additional maternal use of xylitol (CS+X) was more effective at affecting the early colonisation of mutans streptococci (MS) than this programme alone; secondly to analyse trends in the prescribing and management of HCFT by dentists; and thirdly to analyse data from a dental service in order to improve its sustainability. In all, 182 mother/child pairs were selected on the basis of high maternal MS levels. Motherswere randomly allocated to a CS or CS+X group, with both groups receiving Childsmile. Theintervention group consumed xylitol three times a day, from when the child was 3 months until 24 months. Children were examined at age two to assess MS levels. In order to understand patterns of HCFT prescribing, a retrospective secondary data analysis of routine prescribing data for the years 2006-2012 was performed. To understand the sustainability of dental services, carbon accounting combined a top-down approach and a process analysis approach, followed by the use of Pollard’s decision model (used in other healthcare areas) to analyse and support sustainable service reconfiguration. Of the CS children, 17% were colonised with MS, compared with 5% of the CS+X group. This difference was not statistically significant (P=0.1744). The cost of HCFT prescribing increased fourteen-fold over five years, with 4% of dentists prescribing 70% of the total product. Travel (45%), procurement (36%) and building energy (18%) all contributed to the 1800 tonnes of carbon emissions produced by the service, around 4% of total NHS emissions. Using the analytical model, clinic utilisation rates improved by 56% and patient travel halved significantly reducing carbon emissions. It can be concluded that the Childsmile programme was effective in reducing the risk for MS transmission. HCFT is increasing in Scotland and needs to be managed. Dentistry has similar carbon emissions proportionally as the overall NHS, and the use of an analytic tool can be useful in helping identify these emissions. Key words: Sustainability, carbon emissions, xylitol, mutans streptococci, fluoride toothpaste, caries prevention.

A practical right-sided incisional gastropexy technique for treatment or prevention of gastric dilatation volvulus

Yhteenveto: Käytännöllinen oikeanpuoleinen viiltogastropeksia mahalaukun laajentumisen ja kiertymisen hoitona tai ennaltaehkäisynä

The Effects of Multifactorial Fall Prevention on the Psychological Risk Factors of Falling

Psychological factors, such as depression or depressive symptoms and fear of falling are linked to falls among the aged. According to previous studies, they may increase the risk of falls and injurious falls. In addition, depression or a high amount of depressive symptoms and fear of falling may hinder participation in preventive activities. Despite the severe consequences of both conditions and their high prevalence among the aged, they have rarely been studied in the context of fall prevention. The study aimed to assess the effects of multifactorial fall prevention on the psychological risk factors of falling (depressive symptoms and fear of falling) among the community-dwelling aged at increased risk of falling. In addition, it aimed to determine factors predicting high adherence to preventive activities. Volunteers aged 65 or over, who had fallen during the year previous to randomisation were recruited. Participants (n=591) were randomised into an intervention or a control group. The intervention group received a multifactorial fall prevention programme including geriatric assessment, individual guidance on fall and fracture prevention, group- and home-based physical exercise, psychosocial group activities, lectures and home hazards assessment. The control group had a one-time counselling on fall and fracture prevention. The data on psychological risk factors of falling were collected by self-rated questionnaires. Multifactorial fall prevention was not effective in reducing depressive symptoms or fear of falling compared to one-time counselling in the total sample. However, in subgroup analyses, depressive symptoms reduced statistically significantly more among the men and older participants of the intervention group compared to the control group. Female gender, high physical and cognitive abilities and low self-perceived probability of falling were independent predictors of higher adherence in organised activities. In conclusion, few psychological benefits were gained during this multifactorial fall prevention trial. More attention should be focused on adherence, especially among the aged with functional disabilities.

Modeling and Simulation ofReal-Time System as a Tool to Improve Capacity Management - Case Fenix

Tämän tutkimustyön kohteena on TietoEnator Oy:n kehittämän Fenix-tietojärjestelmän kapasiteettitarpeen ennustaminen. Työn tavoitteena on tutustua Fenix-järjestelmän eri osa-alueisiin, löytää tapa eritellä ja mallintaa eri osa-alueiden vaikutus järjestelmän kuormitukseen ja selvittää alustavasti mitkä parametrit vaikuttavat kyseisten osa-alueiden luomaan kuormitukseen. Osa tätä työtä on tutkia eri vaihtoehtoja simuloinnille ja selvittää eri vaihtoehtojen soveltuvuus monimutkaisten järjestelmien mallintamiseen. Kerätyn tiedon pohjaltaluodaan järjestelmäntietovaraston kuormitusta kuvaava simulaatiomalli. Hyödyntämällä mallista saatua tietoa ja tuotantojärjestelmästä mitattua tietoa mallia kehitetään vastaamaan yhä lähemmin todellisen järjestelmän toimintaa. Mallista tarkastellaan esimerkiksi simuloitua järjestelmäkuormaa ja jonojen käyttäytymistä. Tuotantojärjestelmästä mitataan eri kuormalähteiden käytösmuutoksia esimerkiksi käyttäjämäärän ja kellonajan suhteessa. Tämän työn tulosten on tarkoitus toimia pohjana myöhemmin tehtävälle jatkotutkimukselle, jossa osa-alueiden parametrisointia tarkennetaan lisää, mallin kykyä kuvata todellista järjestelmää tehostetaanja mallin laajuutta kasvatetaan.

Development of a simulation tool for torsional vibration of branched power transmission system

In this master's thesis a mechanical model that is driven with variable speed synchronous machine was developed. The developed mechanical model simulates the mechanics of power transmission and its torsional vibrations. The mechanical model was developed for the need of the branched mechanics of a rolling mill and the propulsion system of a tanker. First, the scope of the thesis was to clarify the concepts connected to the mechanical model. The clarified concepts are the variable speed drive, the mechanics of power transmission and the vibrationsin the power transmission. Next, the mechanical model with straight shaft line and twelve moments of inertia that existed in the beginning was developed to be branched considering the case of parallel machines and the case of parallel rolls. Additionally, the model was expanded for the need of moreaccurate simulation to up to thirty moments of inertia. The model was also enhanced to enable three phase short circuit situation of the simulated machine. After that the mechanical model was validated by comparing the results of the developed simulation tool to results of other simulation tools. The compared results are the natural frequencies and mode shapes of torsional vibration, the response of the load torque step and the stress in the mechanical system occurred by the permutation of the magnetic field that is arisen from the three phase short circuit situation. The comparisons were accomplished well and the mechanical model was validated for the compared cases. Further development to be made is to develop the load torque to be time-dependent and to install two frequency converters and two FEM modeled machines to be simulated parallel.

Using the balanced scorecard as a tool for procurement strategy implementation

Tavoitteena diplomityössä oli tutkia, miten hankintastrategiaa saataisiin paremmin toteutettua jokapäiväisessä työssä. Strategian implementointiin käytettiin strategiakarttaa sekä balanced scorecard -mittareita. Tutkimus toteutettiin hankintaosastolla Vaasan & Vaasan Oy:ssä, joka toimii leipomotoimialalla viidessä maassa Itämeren alueella. Hankinnan strategiakartta ja balanced scorecard -mittarit laadittiin olemassa olevan hankintastrategian pohjalta. Perinteisiä balanced scorecard -näkökulmia muokattiin paremmin hankintatoimeen sopiviksi. Malliin lisättiin toimittajanäkökulma ja hankinnan rooli pääprosessien tukifunktiona otettiin huomioon muuttamalla balanced scorecardin asiakasnäkökulma sisäisen asiakkaan näkökulmaksi. Strategiakartta myös laadittiin niin, että hankinnan sisäisten asiakkaiden odotukset ovat kartassa tasavertaisina taloudellistentavoitteiden kanssa. Balanced scorecard -mittareiden määrä pidettiin pienenä, jotta niiden toimintaa ohjaava vaikutus olisi mahdollisimman suuri. Mittareita voidaan vaihtaa strategian muuttuessa. Työssä todettiin, että strategiakartta ja balanced scorecard ovat hyviä välineitä strategian muuttamiseen konkreettisiksi toimenpiteiksi myös tukifunktiossa, kun esimerkiksi mallin näkökulmia muokataan tapauskohtaisesti. Strategiakartat ja balanced scorecard tulisi kytkeä osaksi koko yrityksen strategista suunnittelua. Strategiakartan ja balanced scorecardin käytöstä on hankinnalle monia hyötyjä. Työntekijät hahmottavat paremmin oman panoksensa yrityksen tavoitteiden saavuttamisessa. Käytetyt työkalut voivat tukea myös konsernin yksiköiden hankintojen keskittämiskehitystä.

Fouling, prevention of fouling, and clearing in filtration

In this thesis fouling of conventional filter fabrics and membranes was studied. In the beginning of the thesis fouling and how it can be measured and predicted is reviewed. Information on different methods on how fouling canbe decreased or cleaned away is also given. The experimental part is divided into two sections; fabric filtration and membrane filtration. Fouling of the filter fabrics was studied with silica or cupper slurries and fouling of the membranes was studied with pulp and paper mill waters. The fouled filter materials were characterised according to many different methods. The most useful way to observe fouling is to measure the changes in the permeate flux. Fouling can also be seen visually e.g. with scanning electron microscopy. Consequently, also the reason for the fouling in question might be found. Different filtration characteristics affect fouling e.g. as the filtration pressure was increased it did not have much influence on the permeate flux, but the pressure caused the membrane to get fouled faster. Also, an increase of shear rate on the membrane surface decreased fouling. Different pretreatment methods for the effluent were tested in membrane filtration to decrease fouling. The tested methods; biological treatment, ozonation, enzymatic treatment and flocculation, did not have a clear influence on the fouling of the membrane, but e.g. a biological treatment combined with ultrafiltration made the tested groundwood mill circulation water purer than ultrafiltration alone.