Insiders´ views as a predictor of stock performance : can insider trading be used to predict stock performance on the United States stock market?

This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.

Pääomarakenteisiin vaikuttavat tekijät suomalaisissa pörssiyrityksissä

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää lineaarisen regressioanalyysin avulla paneelidataa käyttäen suomalaisten pörssiyritysten pääomarakenteisiin vaikuttavat tekijät vuosina 1999-2004. Näiden tekijöiden avulla päätellään, mitä pääomarakenneteoriaa/-teorioita nämä yritykset noudattavat. Pääomarakenneteoriat voidaan jakaa kahteen luokkaan sen mukaan, pyritäänkö niissä optimaaliseen pääomarakenteeseen vai ei. Tradeoff- ja siihen liittyvässä agenttiteoriassa pyritään optimaaliseen pääomarakenteeseen. Tradeoff-teoriassa pääomarakenne valitaan punnitsemalla vieraan pääoman hyötyjä ja haittoja. Agenttiteoria on muuten samanlainen kuin tradeoff-teoria, mutta siinä otetaan lisäksi huomioon velan agenttikustannukset. Pecking order - ja ajoitusteoriassa ei pyritä optimaaliseen pääoma-rakenteeseen. Pecking order -teoriassa rahoitus valitaan hierarkian mukaan (tulorahoitus, vieras pääoma, välirahoitus, oma pääoma). Ajoitusteoriassa valitaan se rahoitusmuoto, jota on kannattavinta hankkia vallitsevassa markkinatilanteessa. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan velkaantumisaste riippuu positiivisesti riskistä, vakuudesta ja aineettomasta omaisuudesta. Velkaantumisaste riippuu negatiivisesti likviditeetistä, osaketuotoista ja kannattavuudesta. Osingoilla ei ole vaikutusta velkaantumisasteeseen. Toimialoista teollisuustuotteiden ja -palveluiden sekä perusteollisuuden aloilla on korkeammat velkaantumisasteet kuin muilla toimialoilla. Tulokset tukevat pääosin pecking order -teoriaa ja jonkin verran ajoitusteoriaa. Muut teoriat saavat vain vähäistä tukea.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Perception of privacy in smartphone applications: profiling users based on personality types.

This document is focused on studying privacy perception and personality traits of users in the context of smartphone application privacy. It is divided into two parts. The first part presents an in depth systematic literature review of the existing academic writings available on the topic of relation between privacy perception and personality traits. Demographics, methodologies and other useful insight is extracted and the available literature is divided into broader group of topics bringing the five main areas of research to light and highlighting the current research trends in the field along with pinpointing the research gap of interest to the author. The second part of the thesis uses the results from the literature review to administer an empirical study to investigate the current privacy perception of users and the correlation between personality traits and privacy perception in smartphone applications. Big five personality test is used as the measure for personality traits whereas three sub-variables are used to measure privacy perception i.e. perceived privacy awareness, perceived threat to privacy and willingness to trade privacy. According to the study openness to experience is the most dominant trait having a strong correlation with two privacy sub-variables whereas emotional stability doesn’t show any correlation with privacy perception. Empirical study also explores other findings as preferred privacy sources and application installation preferences that provide further insight about users and might be useful in future.