New directions in Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis

Decisions taken in modern organizations are often multi-dimensional, involving multiple decision makers and several criteria measured on different scales. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods are designed to analyze and to give recommendations in this kind of situations. Among the numerous MCDM methods, two large families of methods are the multi-attribute utility theory based methods and the outranking methods. Traditionally both method families require exact values for technical parameters and criteria measurements, as well as for preferences expressed as weights. Often it is hard, if not impossible, to obtain exact values. Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods designed to help in this type of situations where exact values are not available. Different variants of SMAA allow handling all types of MCDM problems. They support defining the model through uncertain, imprecise, or completely missing values. The methods are based on simulation that is applied to obtain descriptive indices characterizing the problem. In this thesis we present new advances in the SMAA methodology. We present and analyze algorithms for the SMAA-2 method and its extension to handle ordinal preferences. We then present an application of SMAA-2 to an area where MCDM models have not been applied before: planning elevator groups for high-rise buildings. Following this, we introduce two new methods to the family: SMAA-TRI that extends ELECTRE TRI for sorting problems with uncertain parameter values, and SMAA-III that extends ELECTRE III in a similar way. An efficient software implementing these two methods has been developed in conjunction with this work, and is briefly presented in this thesis. The thesis is closed with a comprehensive survey of SMAA methodology including a definition of a unified framework.

Uimahallien vedestä haihtuvat epäpuhtaudet ja niiden leviäminen allastilassa

Uimaveden klooridesinfioinnissa syntyy sivutuotteena haihtuvia ja haitallisia halogeeniyhdisteitä, kuten trihalometaaneja ja triklooriamiinia, jotka voivat heikentää allas-tilan sisäilman laatua merkittävästi. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kartoittaa näiden desinfioinnin sivutuotteiden pitoisuuksia suomalaisissa uimahalleissa sekä selvittää epäpuhtauksien kulkeutumista allastiloissa. Lisäksi pyrittiin löytämään merkittävimmät veden laatu- ja käsittelyparametrit sekä ilmanvaihtotekniset tekijät, jotka vaikuttavat vedestä haihtuvien epäpuhtauksien pitoisuuksiin hallitiloissa. Mittaukset tehtiin kymmenessä eri puolilla Suomea sijaitsevassa uimahallissa. Mittausten perusteella havaittiin, että allastilojen kloroformipitoisuudet vaihtelivat välillä 8,9-84,0 ¿g/m3. Terapia-allasostoilta mitatut pitoisuudet olivat pääallastiloista mitattuja pitoisuuksia suurempia ja aamulla mitattu pitoisuus alhaisempi kuin illalla mitattu. Lisäksi ilmastoiduista valvomoista mitatut pitoisuudet olivat merkittävästi allastilojen pitoisuuksia pienempiä. Triklooriamiininäytteistä suurin osa oli alle määritysrajan. Sisäilman kloroformipitoisuuden havaittiin korreloivan veden lämpötilan sekä ilman kosteuden kanssa. Triklooriamiinille tilastollista analyysiä ei voitu tehdä mm. määritys-rajan alle jääneiden näytteiden suuren osuuden vuoksi. Teknisten kyselyiden ja ilmanvaihtomittausten perusteella todettiin, että uimahallien ilmanvaihto toimii lämmitystarpeen vuoksi sekoittavana ja epäpuhtauksien leviämistä allastilassa ei voida käytännössä katsoen estää. Ilman virtausnopeudet pääaltaiden reunoilla olivat pieniä ja ilman virtauskenttien ei todettu vaikuttavan epäpuhtauksien kulkeutumiseen allastiloissa. Mittauskohteiden vähyydestä ja vedenkäsittelyn hallikohtaisista erityispiirteistä johtuen luotettavia johtopäätöksiä vedenkäsittelymenetelmien vaikutuksesta allasveden ja allastilan ilman laatuun ei pystytty tekemään.

Analysis of patterns in mining time series using Qlucore

Raw measurement data does not always immediately convey useful information, but applying mathematical statistical analysis tools into measurement data can improve the situation. Data analysis can offer benefits like acquiring meaningful insight from the dataset, basing critical decisions on the findings, and ruling out human bias through proper statistical treatment. In this thesis we analyze data from an industrial mineral processing plant with the aim of studying the possibility of forecasting the quality of the final product, given by one variable, with a model based on the other variables. For the study mathematical tools like Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) and Sparse Bayesian regression (SB) are used. Later on, linear regression is used to build a model based on a subset of variables that seem to have most significant weights in the SB model. The results obtained from QOE show that the variable representing the desired final product does not correlate with other variables. For SB and linear regression, the results show that both SB and linear regression models built on 1-day averaged data seriously underestimate the variance of true data, whereas the two models built on 1-month averaged data are reliable and able to explain a larger proportion of variability in the available data, making them suitable for prediction purposes. However, it is concluded that no single model can fit well the whole available dataset and therefore, it is proposed for future work to make piecewise non linear regression models if the same available dataset is used, or the plant to provide another dataset that should be collected in a more systematic fashion than the present data for further analysis.

Feasibility of industrial implementation of laser cutting into paper making machine

Laser cutting implementation possibilities into paper making machine was studied as the main objective of the work. Laser cutting technology application was considered as a replacement tool for conventional cutting methods used in paper making machines for longitudinal cutting such as edge trimming at different paper making process and tambour roll slitting. Laser cutting of paper was tested in 70’s for the first time. Since then, laser cutting and processing has been applied for paper materials with different level of success in industry. Laser cutting can be employed for longitudinal cutting of paper web in machine direction. The most common conventional cutting methods include water jet cutting and rotating slitting blades applied in paper making machines. Cutting with CO2 laser fulfils basic requirements for cutting quality, applicability to material and cutting speeds in all locations where longitudinal cutting is needed. Literature review provided description of advantages, disadvantages and challenges of laser technology when it was applied for cutting of paper material with particular attention to cutting of moving paper web. Based on studied laser cutting capabilities and problem definition of conventional cutting technologies, preliminary selection of the most promising application area was carried out. Laser cutting (trimming) of paper web edges in wet end was estimated to be the most promising area where it can be implemented. This assumption was made on the basis of rate of web breaks occurrence. It was found that up to 64 % of total number of web breaks occurred in wet end, particularly in location of so called open draws where paper web was transferred unsupported by wire or felt. Distribution of web breaks in machine cross direction revealed that defects of paper web edge was the main reason of tearing initiation and consequent web break. The assumption was made that laser cutting was capable of improvement of laser cut edge tensile strength due to high cutting quality and sealing effect of the edge after laser cutting. Studies of laser ablation of cellulose supported this claim. Linear energy needed for cutting was calculated with regard to paper web properties in intended laser cutting location. Calculated linear cutting energy was verified with series of laser cutting. Practically obtained laser energy needed for cutting deviated from calculated values. This could be explained by difference in heat transfer via radiation in laser cutting and different absorption characteristics of dry and moist paper material. Laser cut samples (both dry and moist (dry matter content about 25-40%)) were tested for strength properties. It was shown that tensile strength and strain break of laser cut samples are similar to corresponding values of non-laser cut samples. Chosen method, however, did not address tensile strength of laser cut edge in particular. Thus, the assumption of improving strength properties with laser cutting was not fully proved. Laser cutting effect on possible pollution of mill broke (recycling of trimmed edge) was carried out. Laser cut samples (both dry and moist) were tested on the content of dirt particles. The tests revealed that accumulation of dust particles on the surface of moist samples can take place. This has to be taken into account to prevent contamination of pulp suspension when trim waste is recycled. Material loss due to evaporation during laser cutting and amount of solid residues after cutting were evaluated. Edge trimming with laser would result in 0.25 kg/h of solid residues and 2.5 kg/h of lost material due to evaporation. Schemes of laser cutting implementation and needed laser equipment were discussed. Generally, laser cutting system would require two laser sources (one laser source for each cutting zone), set of beam transfer and focusing optics and cutting heads. In order to increase reliability of system, it was suggested that each laser source would have double capacity. That would allow to perform cutting employing one laser source working at full capacity for both cutting zones. Laser technology is in required level at the moment and do not require additional development. Moreover, capacity of speed increase is high due to availability high power laser sources what can support the tendency of speed increase of paper making machines. Laser cutting system would require special roll to maintain cutting. The scheme of such roll was proposed as well as roll integration into paper making machine. Laser cutting can be done in location of central roll in press section, before so-called open draw where many web breaks occur, where it has potential to improve runability of a paper making machine. Economic performance of laser cutting was done as comparison of laser cutting system and water jet cutting working in the same conditions. It was revealed that laser cutting would still be about two times more expensive compared to water jet cutting. This is mainly due to high investment cost of laser equipment and poor energy efficiency of CO2 lasers. Another factor is that laser cutting causes material loss due to evaporation whereas water jet cutting almost does not cause material loss. Despite difficulties of laser cutting implementation in paper making machine, its implementation can be beneficial. The crucial role in that is possibility to improve cut edge strength properties and consequently reduce number of web breaks. Capacity of laser cutting to maintain cutting speeds which exceed current speeds of paper making machines what is another argument to consider laser cutting technology in design of new high speed paper making machines.

Measurement of Bioactivity of Immunomodulatory Treatment of Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis. With Emphasis on MxA Protein

Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease of the central nervous system, which mainly affects young adults. In Finland, approximately 2500 out of 6000 MS patients have relapsing MS and are treated with disease modifying drugs (DMD): interferon- β (INF-β-1a or INF-β-1b) and glatiramer acetate (GA). Depending on the used IFN-β preparation, 2 % to 40 % of patients develop neutralizing antibodies (NAbs), which abolish the biological effects of IFN-β, leading to reduced clinical and MRI detected efficacy. According to the Finnish Current Care Guidelines and European Federation of Neurological Societis (EFNS) guidelines, it is suggested tomeasure the presence of NAbs during the first 24 months of IFN-β therapy. Aims The aim of this thesis was to measure the bioactivity of IFN-β therapy by focusing on the induction of MxA protein (myxovirus resistance protein A) and its correlation to neutralizing antibodies (NAb). A new MxA EIA assay was set up to offer an easier and rapid method for MxA protein detection in clinical practice. In addition, the tolerability and safety of GA were evaluated in patients who haddiscontinued IFN-β therapy due to side effects and lack of efficacy. Results NAbs developed towards the end of 12 months of treatment, and binding antibodies were detectable before or parallel with them. The titer of NAb correlated negatively with the amount of MxA protein and the mean values of preinjection MxA levels never returned to true baseline in NAb negative patients, but tended to drop in the NAb positive group. The test results between MxA EIA and flow cytometric analysis showed significant correlation. GA reduced the relapse rate and was a safe and well-tolerated therapy in IFN-β-intolerant MS patients. Conclusions NAbs inhibit the induction of MxA protein, which can be used as a surrogate marker of the bioactivity of IFN-β therapy. Compared to flow cytometricanalysis and NAb assay, MxA-EIA seemed to be a sensitive and more practical method in clinical use to measure the actual bioactivity of IFN-β treatment, which is of value also from a cost-effective perspective.

Imaging Neuroinflammation in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system CNS), where inflammation and neurodegeneration lead to irreversible neuronal damage. In MS, a dysfunctional immune system causes auto‐reactive lymphocytes to migrate into CNS where they initiate an inflammatory cascade leading to focal demyelination, axonal degeneration and neuronal loss. One of the hallmarks of neuronal injury and neuroinflammation is the activation of microglia. Activated microglia are found not only in the focal inflammatory lesions, but also diffusely in the normal‐appearing white matter (NAWM), especially in progressive MS. The purine base, adenosine is a ubiquitous neuromodulator in the CNS and also participates in the regulation of inflammation. The effect of adenosine mediated via adenosine A2A receptors has been linked to microglial activation, whereas modulating A2A receptors may exert neuroprotective effects. In the majority of patients, MS presents with a relapsing disease course, later advancing to a progressive phase characterised by a worsening, irreversible disability. Disease modifying treatments can reduce the severity and progression in relapsing MS, but no efficient treatment exists for progressive MS. The aim of this research was to investigate the prevalence of adenosine A2A receptors and activated microglia in progressive MS by using in vivo positron emission tomography (PET) imaging and [11C]TMSX and [11C](R)‐PK11195 radioligands. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) was performed to evaluate structural brain damage. Non‐invasive input function methods were also developed for the analyses of [11C]TMSX PET data. Finally, histopathological correlates of [11C](R)‐PK11195 radioligand binding related to chronic MS lesions were investigated in post‐mortem samples of progressive MS brain using autoradiography and immunohistochemistry. [11C]TMSX binding to A2A receptors was increased in NAWM of secondary progressive MS (SPMS) patients when compared to healthy controls, and this correlated to more severe atrophy in MRI and white matter disintegration (reduced fractional anisotropy, FA) in DTI. The non‐invasive input function methods appeared as feasible options for brain [11C]TMSX images obviating arterial blood sampling. [11C](R)‐PK11195 uptake was increased in the NAWM of SPMS patients when compared to patients with relapsing MS and healthy controls. Higher [11C](R)‐PK11195 binding in NAWM and total perilesional area of T1 hypointense lesions was associated with more severe clinical disability, increased brain atrophy, higher lesion load and reduced FA in NAWM in the MS patients. In autoradiography, increased perilesional [11C](R)‐PK11195 uptake was associated with increased microglial activation identified using immunohistochemistry. In conclusion, brain [11C]TMSX PET imaging holds promise in the evaluation of diffuse neuroinflammation in progressive MS. Being a marker of microglial activation, [11C](R)‐ PK11195 PET imaging could possibly be used as a surrogate biomarker in the evaluation of the neuroinflammatory burden and clinical disease severity in progressive MS.