Bayesian Estimation of Noise

In mathematical modeling the estimation of the model parameters is one of the most common problems. The goal is to seek parameters that fit to the measurements as well as possible. There is always error in the measurements which implies uncertainty to the model estimates. In Bayesian statistics all the unknown quantities are presented as probability distributions. If there is knowledge about parameters beforehand, it can be formulated as a prior distribution. The Bays’ rule combines the prior and the measurements to posterior distribution. Mathematical models are typically nonlinear, to produce statistics for them requires efficient sampling algorithms. In this thesis both Metropolis-Hastings (MH), Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithms and Gibbs sampling are introduced. In the thesis different ways to present prior distributions are introduced. The main issue is in the measurement error estimation and how to obtain prior knowledge for variance or covariance. Variance and covariance sampling is combined with the algorithms above. The examples of the hyperprior models are applied to estimation of model parameters and error in an outlier case.

Analysis of torque and speed ripple producing non-idealities of frequency converters in electric drives

Electric motors driven by adjustable-frequency converters may produce periodic excitation forces that can cause torque and speed ripple. Interaction with the driven mechanical system may cause undesirable vibrations that affect the system performance and lifetime. Direct drives in sensitive applications, such as elevators or paper machines, emphasize the importance of smooth torque production. This thesis analyses the non-idealities of frequencyconverters that produce speed and torque ripple in electric drives. The origin of low order harmonics in speed and torque is examined. It is shown how different current measurement error types affect the torque. As the application environment, direct torque control (DTC) method is applied to permanent magnet synchronous machines (PMSM). A simulation model to analyse the effect of the frequency converter non-idealities on the performance of the electric drives is created. Themodel enables to identify potential problems causing torque vibrations and possibly damaging oscillations in electrically driven machine systems. The model is capable of coupling with separate simulation software of complex mechanical loads. Furthermore, the simulation model of the frequency converter's control algorithm can be applied to control a real frequency converter. A commercial frequencyconverter with standard software, a permanent magnet axial flux synchronous motor and a DC motor as the load are used to detect the effect of current measurement errors on load torque. A method to reduce the speed and torque ripple by compensating the current measurement errors is introduced. The method is based on analysing the amplitude of a selected harmonic component of speed as a function oftime and selecting a suitable compensation alternative for the current error. The speed can be either measured or estimated, so the compensation method is applicable also for speed sensorless drives. The proposed compensation method is tested with a laboratory drive, which consists of commercial frequency converter hardware with self-made software and a prototype PMSM. The speed and torque rippleof the test drive are reduced by applying the compensation method. In addition to the direct torque controlled PMSM drives, the compensation method can also beapplied to other motor types and control methods.

Projektivientiyrityksen johtaminen ja suorituskyvyn analysointi

Functional management systems and performance measurement are essential tools for a company operating in the project management business. These tools should be flexible and adaptable for different kind of projects. The study was carried out with constructive research approach. The study consists of the literature research, the present situation analysis of the case company and development of the new management and performance measurement operation models for the case company. The literature research contains strategic management, performance measurement and project business with special features of international projects. Present situation analysis of the case company includes its history, background, ownership, organization structure, business strategy, current business operation and personnel and also some information about equivalent reference companies. Developed models of the new management and performance measurement for the case company cover strategic and operational management systems and also a total performance measurement system. The last part of the study covers validity and reliability evaluation of the study and proposed action plan for the case company in order to continue development and implementation of the new management and performance measurement systems.

Statistical Inversion Theory in X-ray Tomography

In this thesis the X-ray tomography is discussed from the Bayesian statistical viewpoint. The unknown parameters are assumed random variables and as opposite to traditional methods the solution is obtained as a large sample of the distribution of all possible solutions. As an introduction to tomography an inversion formula for Radon transform is presented on a plane. The vastly used filtered backprojection algorithm is derived. The traditional regularization methods are presented sufficiently to ground the Bayesian approach. The measurements are foton counts at the detector pixels. Thus the assumption of a Poisson distributed measurement error is justified. Often the error is assumed Gaussian, altough the electronic noise caused by the measurement device can change the error structure. The assumption of Gaussian measurement error is discussed. In the thesis the use of different prior distributions in X-ray tomography is discussed. Especially in severely ill-posed problems the use of a suitable prior is the main part of the whole solution process. In the empirical part the presented prior distributions are tested using simulated measurements. The effect of different prior distributions produce are shown in the empirical part of the thesis. The use of prior is shown obligatory in case of severely ill-posed problem.

Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

Methods for the analysis of two dimensional measurement data of paper web

This work is devoted to the problem of reconstructing the basis weight structure at paper web with black{box techniques. The data that is analyzed comes from a real paper machine and is collected by an o®-line scanner. The principal mathematical tool used in this work is Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) modelling. When coupled with the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT), it gives a very flexible and interesting tool for analyzing properties of the paper web. Both ARMA and DFT are independently used to represent the given signal in a simplified version of our algorithm, but the final goal is to combine the two together. Ljung-Box Q-statistic lack-of-fit test combined with the Root Mean Squared Error coefficient gives a tool to separate significant signals from noise.

Optimisation of data analysis method for a fluidized bed combustion test rig

Nowadays the used fuel variety in power boilers is widening and new boiler constructions and running models have to be developed. This research and development is done in small pilot plants where more faster analyse about the boiler mass and heat balance is needed to be able to find and do the right decisions already during the test run. The barrier on determining boiler balance during test runs is the long process of chemical analyses of collected input and outputmatter samples. The present work is concentrating on finding a way to determinethe boiler balance without chemical analyses and optimise the test rig to get the best possible accuracy for heat and mass balance of the boiler. The purpose of this work was to create an automatic boiler balance calculation method for 4 MW CFB/BFB pilot boiler of Kvaerner Pulping Oy located in Messukylä in Tampere. The calculation was created in the data management computer of pilot plants automation system. The calculation is made in Microsoft Excel environment, which gives a good base and functions for handling large databases and calculations without any delicate programming. The automation system in pilot plant was reconstructed und updated by Metso Automation Oy during year 2001 and the new system MetsoDNA has good data management properties, which is necessary for big calculations as boiler balance calculation. Two possible methods for calculating boiler balance during test run were found. Either the fuel flow is determined, which is usedto calculate the boiler's mass balance, or the unburned carbon loss is estimated and the mass balance of the boiler is calculated on the basis of boiler's heat balance. Both of the methods have their own weaknesses, so they were constructed parallel in the calculation and the decision of the used method was left to user. User also needs to define the used fuels and some solid mass flowsthat aren't measured automatically by the automation system. With sensitivity analysis was found that the most essential values for accurate boiler balance determination are flue gas oxygen content, the boiler's measured heat output and lower heating value of the fuel. The theoretical part of this work concentrates in the error management of these measurements and analyses and on measurement accuracy and boiler balance calculation in theory. The empirical part of this work concentrates on the creation of the balance calculation for the boiler in issue and on describing the work environment.

R&D Performance Analysis: Case Studies on the Challenges and Promotion of the Evaluation and Measurement of R&D

Due to the intense international competition, demanding, and sophisticated customers, and diverse transforming technological change, organizations need to renew their products and services by allocating resources on research and development (R&D). Managing R&D is complex, but vital for many organizations to survive in the dynamic, turbulent environment. Thus, the increased interest among decision-makers towards finding the right performance measures for R&D is understandable. The measures or evaluation methods of R&D performance can be utilized for multiple purposes; for strategic control, for justifying the existence of R&D, for providing information and improving activities, as well as for the purposes of motivating and benchmarking. The earlier research in the field of R&D performance analysis has generally focused on either the activities and considerable factors and dimensions - e.g. strategic perspectives, purposes of measurement, levels of analysis, types of R&D or phases of R&D process - prior to the selection of R&Dperformance measures, or on proposed principles or actual implementation of theselection or design processes of R&D performance measures or measurement systems. This study aims at integrating the consideration of essential factors anddimensions of R&D performance analysis to developed selection processes of R&D measures, which have been applied in real-world organizations. The earlier models for corporate performance measurement that can be found in the literature, are to some extent adaptable also to the development of measurement systemsand selecting the measures in R&D activities. However, it is necessary to emphasize the special aspects related to the measurement of R&D performance in a way that make the development of new approaches for especially R&D performance measure selection necessary: First, the special characteristics of R&D - such as the long time lag between the inputs and outcomes, as well as the overall complexity and difficult coordination of activities - influence the R&D performance analysis problems, such as the need for more systematic, objective, balanced and multi-dimensional approaches for R&D measure selection, as well as the incompatibility of R&D measurement systems to other corporate measurement systems and vice versa. Secondly, the above-mentioned characteristics and challenges bring forth the significance of the influencing factors and dimensions that need to be recognized in order to derive the selection criteria for measures and choose the right R&D metrics, which is the most crucial step in the measurement system development process. The main purpose of this study is to support the management and control of the research and development activities of organizations by increasing the understanding of R&D performance analysis, clarifying the main factors related to the selection of R&D measures and by providing novel types of approaches and methods for systematizing the whole strategy- and business-based selection and development process of R&D indicators.The final aim of the research is to support the management in their decision making of R&D with suitable, systematically chosen measures or evaluation methods of R&D performance. Thus, the emphasis in most sub-areas of the present research has been on the promotion of the selection and development process of R&D indicators with the help of the different tools and decision support systems, i.e. the research has normative features through providing guidelines by novel types of approaches. The gathering of data and conducting case studies in metal and electronic industry companies, in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector, and in non-profit organizations helped us to formulate a comprehensive picture of the main challenges of R&D performance analysis in different organizations, which is essential, as recognition of the most importantproblem areas is a very crucial element in the constructive research approach utilized in this study. Multiple practical benefits regarding the defined problemareas could be found in the various constructed approaches presented in this dissertation: 1) the selection of R&D measures became more systematic when compared to the empirical analysis, as it was common that there were no systematic approaches utilized in the studied organizations earlier; 2) the evaluation methods or measures of R&D chosen with the help of the developed approaches can be more directly utilized in the decision-making, because of the thorough consideration of the purpose of measurement, as well as other dimensions of measurement; 3) more balance to the set of R&D measures was desired and gained throughthe holistic approaches to the selection processes; and 4) more objectivity wasgained through organizing the selection processes, as the earlier systems were considered subjective in many organizations. Scientifically, this dissertation aims to make a contribution to the present body of knowledge of R&D performance analysis by facilitating dealing with the versatility and challenges of R&D performance analysis, as well as the factors and dimensions influencing the selection of R&D performance measures, and by integrating these aspects to the developed novel types of approaches, methods and tools in the selection processes of R&D measures, applied in real-world organizations. In the whole research, facilitation of dealing with the versatility and challenges in R&D performance analysis, as well as the factors and dimensions influencing the R&D performance measure selection are strongly integrated with the constructed approaches. Thus, the research meets the above-mentioned purposes and objectives of the dissertation from the scientific as well as from the practical point of view.

Disc Filter External Models in an Integrated Simulation Environment

Työssä tutkittiin kiekkosuodattimeen liittyviä ulkoisia simulointimalleja integroidussa simulointiympäristössä. Työn tarkoituksena oli parantaa olemassa olevaa mekanistista kiekkosuodatinmallia. Malli laadittiin dynaamiseen paperiteollisuuden tarpeisiin tehtyyn simulaattoriin (APMS), jossa olevaan alkuperäiseen mekanistiseen malliin tehtiin ulkoinen lisämalli, joka käyttää hyväkseen kiekkosuodatinvalmistajan mittaustuloksia. Laitetiedon saatavuutta suodattimien käyttäjille parannettiin luomalla Internetissä sijaitsevalle palvelimelle kiekkosuodattimen laitetietomäärittelyt. Suodatinvalmistaja voi palvella asiakkaitaan viemällä laitetiedot palvelimelle ja yhdistämällä laitetiedon simulointimalliin. Tämä on mahdollista Internetin ylitse käytettävän integroidun simulointiympäristön avulla, jonka on tarkoitus kokonaisvaltaisesti yhdistää simulointi ja prosessisuunnittelu. Suunnittelijalle tarjotaan työkalut, joilla dynaaminen simulointi, tasesimulointi ja kaavioiden piirtäminen onnistuu prosessilaitetiedon ollessa saatavilla. Nämä työkalut on tarkoitus toteuttaa projektissa nimeltä Galleria, jossa luodaan prosessimalli- ja laitetietopalvelin Internetiin. Gallerian käyttöliittymän avulla prosessisuunnittelija voi käyttää erilaisia simulointiohjelmistoja ja niihin luotuja valmiita malleja, sekä saada käsiinsä ajan tasalla olevaa laitetietoa. Ulkoinen kiekkosuodatinmalli laskee suodosvirtaamat ja suodosten pitoisuudet likaiselle, kirkkaalle ja superkirkkaalle suodokselle. Mallin syöttöparametrit ovat kiekkojen pyörimisnopeus, sisään tulevan syötön pitoisuus, suotautuvuus (freeness) ja säätöparametri, jolla säädetään likaisen ja kirkkaan suodoksen keskinäinen suhde. Suotautuvuus kertoo mistä massasta on kyse. Mitä suurempi suotautuvuus on, sitä paremmin massa suodattuu ja sitä puhtaampia suodokset yleensä ovat. Mallin parametrit viritettiin regressioanalyysillä ja valmistajan palautetta apuna käyttäen. Käyttäjä voi valita haluaako hän käyttää ulkoista vai alkuperäistä mallia. Alkuperäinen malli täytyy ensin alustaa antamalla sille nominaaliset toimintapisteet virtaamille ja pitoisuuksille tietyllä pyörimisnopeudella. Ulkoisen mallin yhtälöitä voi käyttää alkuperäisen mallin alustamiseen, jos alkuperäinen malli toimii ulkoista paremmin. Ulkoista mallia voi käyttää myös ilman simulointiohjelmaa Galleria-palvelimelta käsin. Käyttäjälle avautuu näin mahdollisuus tarkastella kiekkosuodattimien parametreja ja nähdä suotautumistulokset oman työasemansa ääreltä mistä tahansa, kunhan Internetyhteys on olemassa. Työn tuloksena kiekkosuodattimien laitetiedon saatavuus käyttäjille parani ja alkuperäisen simulointimallin rajoituksia ja puutteita vähennettiin.

Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Development of Customer Satisfaction Models for Electronics Engineering Company

Diplomityön tarkoituksena oli luoda ja kehittää kaksi asiakastyytyväisyysmallia asiakastyytyväisyyden mittaamisen aloittamiseksi ja toteuttamiseksi kohdeyrityksessä. Työ pohjautuu nykyisten tyytyväisyysprosessien analysointiin sekä työn teoriaosaan, joka käsittelee yksityiskohtaisesti niitä asioita, joita asiakastyytyväisyyden mittaamisessa ja prosessissa tulisi huomioida. Työssä tehdyn mallien tarkoituksen on auttaa kohdeyritystä hyödyntämään asiakastyytyväisyysmittauksen tuloksia paremmin liiketoiminnassa, sekä asiakkaiden keskuudessa. Työn yhtenä tavoitteena oli myös sopivan mittaustyökalun löytäminen ja suositteleminen kohdeyritykselle.Teorian ja analysoinnin pohjalta luotiin molemmat asiakastyytyväisyysmallit vastamaan kohdeyksiköiden tarpeita. Kun ulkoiset seikat, kuten mittaustavat, mittausinstrumentit, kyselylomakkeet ja vastaajaryhmät oli määritelty, keskityttiin tulosten analysointiin ja hyödyntämiseen, mikä korostui asiakassuuntautuneessa organisaatiossa. Työssä pohdittiin myös yhtenäisen asiakastyytyväisyysprosessin merkitystä ja etuja kohdeyrityksessä.

Visual Measurement and Modelling of Tool Wear in Rough Turning

Huolimatta korkeasta automaatioasteesta sorvausteollisuudessa, muutama keskeinen ongelma estää sorvauksen täydellisen automatisoinnin. Yksi näistä ongelmista on työkalun kuluminen. Tämä työ keskittyy toteuttamaan automaattisen järjestelmän kulumisen, erityisesti viistekulumisen, mittaukseen konenäön avulla. Kulumisen mittausjärjestelmä poistaa manuaalisen mittauksen tarpeen ja minimoi ajan, joka käytetään työkalun kulumisen mittaukseen. Mittauksen lisäksi tutkitaan kulumisen mallinnusta sekä ennustamista. Automaattinen mittausjärjestelmä sijoitettiin sorvin sisälle ja järjestelmä integroitiin onnistuneesti ulkopuolisten järjestelmien kanssa. Tehdyt kokeet osoittivat, että mittausjärjestelmä kykenee mittaamaan työkalun kulumisen järjestelmän oikeassa ympäristössä. Mittausjärjestelmä pystyy myös kestämään häiriöitä, jotka ovat konenäköjärjestelmille yleisiä. Työkalun kulumista mallinnusta tutkittiin useilla eri menetelmillä. Näihin kuuluivat muiden muassa neuroverkot ja tukivektoriregressio. Kokeet osoittivat, että tutkitut mallit pystyivät ennustamaan työkalun kulumisasteen käytetyn ajan perusteella. Parhaan tuloksen antoivat neuroverkot Bayesiläisellä regularisoinnilla.

Developing supply chain performance measurement metrics, case Halton Oy

Tämä tutkimus pyrkii selvittämään, miten toimitusketjun suorituskykyä voidaan mitata kohdeyrityksessä. Supply Chain Council (SCC) on vuonna 1996 kehittänyt Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) – mallin, joka mahdollistaa myös suorituskyvyn mittaamisen. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on soveltaa SCOR-mallin suorituskyvyn mittausmallia kohdeyrityksessä. Työ on kvalitatiivinen tapaustutkimus. Työn teoriaosassa on pääasiallisesti käsitelty toimitusketjua ja suorituskyvyn mittaamista koskevaa kirjallisuutta. Mittausjärjestelmän luominen alkaa kohdeyrityksen esittelyllä. SCOR – mallin mittarit on kohdeyrityksessä rakennettu SCC:n ehdotusten mukaisesti, jotta mittareiden tulokset olisivat käyttökelpoisia myös benchmarkkausta varten. Malli sisältää 10 SCOR – mittaria, sekä muutamia muita Haltonin omia mittareita. Lopputuloksena voidaan nähdä, että SCOR – malli antaa hyvän yleiskuvan toimitusketjun suorituskyvystä, mutta kohdeyrityksessä on silti tarvetta kehittää edelleen informatiivisempia mittareita, jotka antaisivat yksityiskohtaisempaa tietoa kohdeyrityksen johdolle.