A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Foodstuffs and medicines as legal categories in the EU and China. Functional foods as a borderline case

The thesis discusses the regulation of foodstuffs and medicines, and particularly the regulation of functional foods. Legal systems investigated are the EU and China. Both are members of the WTO and Codex Alimentarius, which binds European and Chinese rules together. The study uses three Chinese berries as case examples of how product development faces regulation in practice. The berries have traditional uses as herbal medicines. Europe and China have similar nutrition problems to be resolved, such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. The three berries might be suitable raw materials for functional foods. Consumer products with health-enhancing functions, such as lowering blood pressure, might legally be classifi ed either as foodstuffs or medicines. The classifi cation will depend on functions and presentation of the product. In our opinion, food and medicine regulation should come closer together so the classifi cation issue would no longer be an issue. Safety of both foodstuffs and medicines is strictly regulated. With medicines, safety is a more relative concept, where benefi ts of the product are compared to side-effects in thorough scientifi c tests and trials. Foods, on the other hand, are not allowed to have side-effects. Hygiene rules and rules on the use of chemicals apply. In China, food safety is currently at focus as China has had several severe food scandals. Newly developed foods are called novel foods, and are specifi cally regulated. The current European novel food regulation from 1997 treats traditional third country products as novel. The Chinese regulation of 2007 also defi nes novel foods as something unfamiliar to a Chinese consumer. The concepts of novel food thus serve a protectionist purpose. As regards marketing, foods are allowed to bear health claims, whereas medicines bear medicinal claims. The separation is legally strict: foods are not to be presented as having medicinal functions. European nutrition and health claim regulation exists since 2006. China also has its regulation on health foods, listing the permitted claims and how to substantiate them. Health claims are allowed only on health foods. The European rules on medicines include separate categories for herbal medicines, traditional herbal medicines, and homeopathic medicines, where there are differing requirements for scientifi c substantiation. The scientifi c and political grounds for the separate categories provoke criticism. At surface, the Chinese legal system seems similar to the European one. To facilitate trade, China has enacted modern laws. Laws are needed as the country moves from planned economy to market economy: ‘rule of law’ needs to replace ‘rule of man’. Instead of being citizens, Chinese people long were subordinates to the Emperor. Confucius himself advised to avoid confl ict. Still, Chinese people do not and cannot always trust the legal system, as laws are enforced in an inconsistent manner, and courts are weak. In China, there have been problems with confl icting national and local laws. In Europe, the competence of the EU vs. the competence of the Member States is still not resolved, even though the European Commission often states that free trade requires harmonisation. Food and medicine regulation is created by international organisations, food and medicine control agencies, standards agencies, companies and their organisations. Regulation can be divided in ‘hard law’ and ‘soft law’. One might claim that hard law is in crisis, as soft law is gaining importance. If law is out of fashion, regulation certainly isn’t. In the future, ‘law’ might mean a process where rules and incentives are created by states, NGOs, companies, consumers, and other stakeholders. ‘Law’ might thus refer to a constant negotiation between public and private actors. Legal principles such as transparency, equal treatment, and the right to be heard would still be important.

Covariance Matrix Estimation and Mean-Variance Optimization in application to International Diversification

Tutkimus keskittyy kansainväliseen hajauttamiseen suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite on selvittää tehostavatko uudet kovarianssimatriisiestimaattorit minimivarianssiportfolion optimointiprosessia. Tavallisen otoskovarianssimatriisin lisäksi optimoinnissa käytetään kahta kutistusestimaattoria ja joustavaa monimuuttuja-GARCH(1,1)-mallia. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu Dow Jonesin toimialaindekseistä ja OMX-H:n portfolioindeksistä. Kansainvälinen hajautusstrategia on toteutettu käyttäen toimialalähestymistapaa ja portfoliota optimoidaan käyttäen kahtatoista komponenttia. Tutkimusaieisto kattaa vuodet 1996-2005 eli 120 kuukausittaista havaintoa. Muodostettujen portfolioiden suorituskykyä mitataan Sharpen indeksillä. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kansainvälisesti hajautettujen investointien ja kotimaisen portfolion riskikorjattujen tuottojen välillä ei ole tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Myöskään uusien kovarianssimatriisiestimaattoreiden käytöstä ei synnytilastollisesti merkitsevää lisäarvoa verrattuna otoskovarianssimatrisiin perustuvaan portfolion optimointiin.

Requirements management process

Vaatimustenhallinnan alue on hyvin kompleksinen. Sen terminologia on moninaista ja samat termit voivat tarkoittaa eri asioita eri ihmisille. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on selkeyttää vaatimustenhallinnan aluetta. Se vastaa kysymyksiin kuten, mitä vaatimustenhallinta on ja miten sitä voidaan tehdä. Työ keskittyy vaatimusten analysoinnin ja validoinnin alueisiin, joten tältä osin se vastaa myös tarkempiin kysymyksiin kuten, miten koottujen vaatimusten jäljitettävyyttä, dokumentointia, analysointia ja validointia voidaan tehdä. Tämän työn kautta vaatimustenhallinta voidaan esitellä yritykselle ja sen eri osat voivat saada saman käsityksen vaatimustenhallinnasta. Tutkimus esittelee vaatimustenhallinnan prosessina, joka pitää sisällään vaatimusten jäljitettävyyden, vaatimusten dokumentoinnin, vaatimusten muutoksenhallinnan ja vaatimusmäärityksen. Vaatimusmääritys voidaan edelleen jakaa vaatimusten koostamiseen, analysointiin ja neuvotteluun sekä validointiin. Työssä esitellään geneerinen vaatimustenhallinnan prosessimalli. Mallin avulla näytetään, että vaatimustenhallinta on jatkuva prosessi, jossa kaikki aktiviteetit ovat kytköksissä toisiinsa. Näitä aktiviteettejä suoritetaan enemmän tai vähemmän samanaikaisesti. Malli esitetään geneerisessä muodossa, jotta se olisi hyödynnettävissä systeemi- ja tuotekehitys projekteissa sekä sisäisissä kehitysprojekteissa. Se kertoo, että vaatimukset tulisi jalostaa niin aikaisin, kuin mahdollista, jotta muutoksien määrä kehitystyön myöhemmissä vaiheissa voitaisiin minimoida. Jotkin muutokset eivät ole vältettävissä, joten muutoksenhallinnan tueksi tulisi kehittää jäljitettävyyskäsikirja ja jäljitettävyyskäytännöt. Vaatimustenhallintaa tarkastellaan meneillään olevassa kehitysprojektissa. Tarkastelussa tutkitaan, mitä vaatimustenhallinnan toimintatapoja sekä analysointi- ja validointimetodeja käytetään ja mitä voitaisiin tehdä vaatimustenhallinnan parantamiseksi projektissa.