Tulevaisuushallintaa: skenaarioperustainen toimintamalli Case: Sankar Marketing Oy

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa Sankar Marketing Oy:lle normatiivinen, skenaarioperustainen toimintamalli tulevaisuudenhallintaan. Menetelmällisesti tavoitteena oli kokonaisuuden hallittavuus. Yleiset skenaariot (ongelmien kasautuminen, tietoyhteiskunta hyvinvointiyhteiskuntana ja markkinavetoinen kehitys) toimivat näkökulmien aukaisijoina. Tulevaisuustaulukkomuotoinen väljästi kohdennettu skenaario rakennettiin tulevaisuusstudion, lehti- ja kirjasurveyn avulla. Taulukosta analysoitiin rakenteellisella- ja vaikuttavuusanalyysilla tärkeimmät muuttujat esille. Empiiriset tulokset: 1. Sankar Marketing Oy:n missio ja visiot rakennettiin tärkeimpien muuttujien, paradigman ja yrityksessä vallitsevien arvojen avulla. 2. Kasvulle, henkilöstölle ja markkinoinnille määritettiin visioita tukevat pitkän aikavälin strategiset linjaukset, jotka arvotettiin strategiaskenaarion avulla. 3. Toimenpidesuunnitelmat muodostivat kehitysurien polun bas-menetelmällä analysoidusta nykytilasta pitkän tähtäimen visioon. Uutuusarvoa tutkimukseen tuo toimintamallin uskottavuus, joka saatiin aikaiseksi yhdistämällä valittujen metodien rajapinnat aukottomaksi päättelyketjuksi.

Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Impact of reliability of supply on long-term development approaches to electricity distribution networks

The Finnish electricity distribution sector, rural areas in particular, is facing major challenges because of the economic regulation, tightening supply security requirements and the ageing network asset. Therefore, the target in the distribution network planning and asset management is to develop and renovate the networks to meet these challenges in compliance with the regulations in an economically feasible way. Concerning supply security, the new Finnish Electricity Market Act limits the maximum duration of electricity supply interruptions to six hours in urban areas and 36 hours in rural areas. This has a significant impact on distribution network planning, especially in rural areas where the distribution networks typically require extensive modifications and renovations to meet the supply security requirements. This doctoral thesis introduces a methodology to analyse electricity distribution system development. The methodology is based on and combines elements of reliability analysis, asset management and economic regulation. The analysis results can be applied, for instance, to evaluate the development of distribution reliability and to consider actions to meet the tightening regulatory requirements. Thus, the methodology produces information for strategic decision-making so that DSOs can respond to challenges arising in the electricity distribution sector. The key contributions of the thesis are a network renovation concept for rural areas, an analysis to assess supply security, and an evaluation of the effects of economic regulation on the strategic network planning. In addition, the thesis demonstrates how the reliability aspect affects the placement of automation devices and how the reserve power can be arranged in a rural area network.