Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Höyryturbiinin kanavistojen numeerinen virtauslaskenta

Diplomityössä tutkittiin Fortumin Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen ulosvirtauskanaviston ja suurnopeuskosteudenerottimen toimintaa, sekä selvitettiin taustalla olevaa teoriaa ja aiemmin tehtyjä tutkimuksia. Tavoitteena oli ymmärtää ja esittää laitteiden toimintaa, sekä tutkia voiko ulosvirtauskanaviston suorituskykyä parantaa geometrian muutoksilla. Työssä luotiin tutkittaville kohteille geometriat ja laskentahilat, joiden avulla simuloitiin niiden toimintaa eri käyttötilanteissa numeerisen virtauslaskennan avulla. Laskennan reunaehdot saatiin olemassa olevasta prosessimallista ja aiemmista turbiiniselvityksistä. Ulosvirtauskanaviston suorituskyky laskettiin kolmella eri lauhdutinpaineella neljällä eri geometrialla. Geometrian muutokset vaikuttivat selkeästi ulosvirtauskanaviston suorituskykyyn ja sitä saatiin parannettua. Kaksi kolmesta muutoksesta, lisäkanavat ja oikaistu vesilippa, pa-ransivat suorituskykyä. Lokinsiipien poistaminen heikensi ulosvirtauskanaviston toi-mintaa. Suurnopeuskosteudenerottimen mallintaminen jäi lähtötietojen ja ajan puutteen takia hieman tavoitteesta. Sekä ulosvirtauskanaviston että suurnopeuskosteudenerotti-men jatkotutkimusta ja mahdollisia toimenpiteitä varten saatiin arvokasta uutta tietoa.

Managing and utilizing information flow for new products’ periodic account sales process

The goal was to understand, document and module how information is currently flown internally in the largest dairy organization in Finland. The organization has undergone radical changes in the past years due to economic sanctions between European Union and Russia. Therefore, organization’s ultimate goal would be to continue its growth through managing its sales process more efficiently. The thesis consists of a literature review and an empirical part. The literature review consists of knowledge management and process modeling theories. First, the knowledge management discusses how data, information and knowledge are exchanged in the process. Knowledge management models and processes are describing how knowledge is created, exchanged and can be managed in an organization. Secondly, the process modeling is responsible for visualizing information flow through discussion of modeling approaches and presenting different methods and techniques. Finally, process’ documentation procedure was presented. In the end, a constructive research approach was used in order to identify process’ related problems and bottlenecks. Therefore, possible solutions were presented based on this approach. The empirical part of the study is based on 37 interviews, organization’s internal data sources and theoretical framework. The acquired data and information were used to document and to module the sales process in question with a flowchart diagram. Results are conducted through construction of the flowchart diagram and analysis of the documentation. In fact, answers to research questions are derived from empirical and theoretical parts. In the end, 14 problems and two bottlenecks were identified in the process. The most important problems are related to approach and/or standardization for information sharing, insufficient information technology tool utilization and lack of systematization of documentation. The bottlenecks are caused by the alarming amount of changes to files after their deadlines.