Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

Gold investments and short- and long-run price determinants of the price of gold

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia tekijöitä jotkavaikuttavat lyhyellä ja pitkällä aikavälillä kullan hintaan. Toiseksi tutkielmassa selvitetään mitä eri sijoitusmahdollisuuksia löytyy kultaan sijoitettaessa. Aineistona käytetään kuukausitasoista dataa Yhdysvaltain ja maailman hintaindekseistä, Yhdysvaltain ja maailman inflaatiosta ja inflaation volatiliteetista, kullan beetasta, kullan lainahinnasta, luottoriskistä ja Yhdysvaltojen ja maailman valuuttakurssi indeksistä joulukuulta 1972 elokuulle 2006. Yhteisintegraatio regressiotekniikoita käytettiin muodostamaan malli jonka avullatutkittiin päätekijöitä jotka vaikuttavat kullan hintaan. Kirjallisuutta tutkimalla selvitettiin miten kultaan voidaan sijoittaa. Empiirisettulokset ovat yhteneväisiä edellisten tutkimusten kanssa. Tukea löytyi sille, että kulta on pitkän ajan suoja inflaatiota vastaan ja kulta ja Yhdysvaltojen inflaatio liikkuvat pitkällä aikavälillä yhdessä. Kullan hintaan vaikuttavat kuitenkin lyhyen ajan tekijät pitkän ajan tekijöitä enemmän. Kulta on myös sijoittajalle helppo sijoituskohde, koska se on hyvin saatavilla markkinoilla ja eri instrumentteja on lukuisia.

The Dynamic Relationship between Finnish Stock Market and Commodities

Since different stock markets have become more integrated during 2000s, investors need new asset classes in order to gain diversification benefits. Commodities have become popular to invest in and thus it is important to examine whether the investors should use commodities as a part for portfolio diversification. This master’s thesis examines the dynamic relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities. The methodology is based on Vector Autoregressive models (VAR). The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities is examined with Johansen cointegration while short-run relationship is examined with VAR models and Granger causality test. In addition, impulse response test and forecast error variance decomposition are employed to strengthen the results of short-run relationship. The dynamic relationships might change under different market conditions. Thus, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples in order to reveal whether the dynamic relationship varies under different market conditions. The results show that Finnish stock market has stable long-run relationship with industrial metals, indicating that there would not be diversification benefits among the industrial metals. The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and energy commodities is not as stable as the long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and industrial metals. Long-run relationship was found in the full sample period and first sub-sample which indicate less room for diversification. However, the long-run relationship disappeared in the second sub-sample which indicates diversification benefits. Long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and agricultural commodities was not found in the full sample period which indicates diversification benefits between the variables. However, long-run relationship was found from both sub-samples. The best diversification benefits would be achieved if investor invested in precious metals. No long-run relationship was found from either sample. In the full sample period OMX Helsinki had short-run relationship with most of the energy commodities and industrial metals and the causality was mostly running from equities to commodities. During the first sub period the number of short-run relationships and causality shrunk but during the crisis period the number of short-run relationships and causality increased. The most notable result found was unidirectional causality from gold to OMX Helsinki during the crisis period.

Perusterveydenhuollon ja erikoissairaanhoidon käytön seuranta ja ennakointi kuntanäkökulmasta

Follow-up of utilisation and prediction of primary health care and hospital care from the municipality point of view. Planning, follow-up, and evaluation of primary health care within municipality entail comprehensive information about factors that influence health. In addition to populationbased research, various statistical data and registries serve as sources of information. The present study examined utilisation of primary health care and hospital care with the existing databases, registries, and categorization of Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) from the municipality (purchaser) point of view. Research involving the cases of Paimio, Sauvo, and Turku as examples of municipalities pointed out that, even in the small municipalities, it is possible to assess and predict health services to be offered to the inhabitants by following databases and registries. Health-related databases and registries include a plenty of possible uses that have not adequately been employed at the level of municipality. Descriptive futures research and community analysis formed the framework of the study. Descriptive futures research may be used to establish predictions based on past developmental traditions, and quantitative time trend analyses may be employed to make estimations about future events. Community analysis will assist in making conclusions about population- based health care needs, in assessing the functionality or effectiveness of the health care system, and in appropriately targeting limited resources. The aim of the present study was to describe the health service profile so that the arrangements and planning of health services as well as the contract negotiations of hospital care become easier within municipalities. Another aim was to assess the application of Hilmo (registry for posting hospital care periods), Aitta and Sotka (statistical databases) for the purposes of resource planning in the procurement of hospital care. A third aim was to evaluate how the system of the DRGs adapts in the prediction of retaining health services within short (1-year), intermediate (5-year) and long range (10-15-year) intervals. The findings indicated that the follow-up of primary health care utilisation combined with follow-up of hospital care utilisation allows municipalities to plan and predict health services when databases are applied. Information about the past contacts with the databases has indicated that the health care culture and incidence of disease change rather slowly in the area of investigation. For the purposes of health care research, it is recommended that methods of application used in making predictions about health care utilisation need to be further developed

Ramp-up Predictability - Designing and Prototyping Ramp-up Predictability concept for new product creation

Diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia ja kehittää menetelmä tuotekehitysprojektin ajalliselle ennustamiselle tuotteen siirtyessä tuotekehityksestä massatuotantoon. Ajallisen ennustamisen merkitys korostuu mitä lähemmäksi uuden tuotteen massatuotannon aloittaminen (ramp-up) tulee, koska strategiset päätökset koskien mm. uusia tuotantolinjoja, materiaalien- ja komponenttien tilaamisia sekä vahvistus asiakastoimitusten aloittamista täytyy tehdä jo paljon aikaisemmin.Työ aloitetaan tutkimalla rinnakkaista insinöörityötä (concurrent engineering) sekä suoritusten mittaamista (performance measurement), joiden sisältämistä ajattelumalleista, työkaluista ja tekniikoista hahmottuivat ajallisen ennustettavuuden onnistumisen edellytykset. Näitä olivat suunnitellun tuotteen ja tuotekehitysprosessin laatu sekä resurssien ja tiimien kompetenssit. Toisaalta ajalliseen ennustettavuuteen vaikuttavat myös projektien riippuvuudet ulkoisista toimittajista ja heidän aikatauluistaan.Teoreettisena viitekehyksenä käytetään Bradford L. Goldense:n luomaa mallia tuotekehityksen proaktiiviseksi mittaamiseksi sekä sovelletaan W. Edward Deming:in jatkuvan parantamisen silmukkaa. Työssä kehitetään Ramp-up Predictability konsepti, joka koostuu keskipitkän ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisesta. Työhön ei kuulunut mallin käyttöönotto ja seuranta.Toimenpide ehdotuksena esitetään lisätutkimusta mittareiden keskinäisestä korrelaatioista ja niiden luotettavuudesta sekä mallien tarjoamista mahdollisuuksista muille tulosyksiköille.

Wireless e-Business Applications - Methods for Forecasting the Demand of Wireless Services and Technologies

Tämä tutkimus oli osa sähköistä liiketoimintaa ja langattomia sovelluksia tutkivaa projektia ja tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ennustamisen rooli päätöksenteko- ja suunnitteluprosessissa ja määrittää parhaiten soveltuvat ja useimmin käytetyt teknologian ennustusmenetelmät. Ennustusmenetelmiä tarkasteltiin erityisesti uuden teknologian ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimus perustui teknologista ennustamista, pitkän aikavälin suunnittelua ja innovaatioprosesseja käsittelevän kirjallisuuden analysointiin. Materiaalin perusteella kuvataan teknologian ennustamista informaation hankkimisvälineenä organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosessin apuna. Työssä arvioidaan myös seuraavat teknologisen ennustamisen menetelmät: trendianalyysi-, Delfoi-, cross-impact analyysi-, morfologinen analyysi- ja skenaario analyysimenetelmä. Työ tuo esille jokaisen ennustusmenetelmä ominaispiirteet, rajoitukset ja sovellusmahdollisuudet. Käyttäen esiteltyjä menetelmiä, saadaan kerättyä hyödyllistä informaatiota tulevaisuuden näkymistä, joita sitten voidaan käyttää hyväksi organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosesseissa.

Magnetic Resonance Experiments with Atomic Hydrogen

In this thesis three experiments with atomic hydrogen (H) at low temperatures T<1 K are presented. Experiments were carried out with two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) H gas, and with H atoms trapped in solid H2 matrix. The main focus of this work is on interatomic interactions, which have certain specific features in these three systems considered. A common feature is the very high density of atomic hydrogen, the systems are close to quantum degeneracy. Short range interactions in collisions between atoms are important in gaseous H. The system of H in H₂ differ dramatically because atoms remain fixed in the H₂ lattice and properties are governed by long-range interactions with the solid matrix and with H atoms. The main tools in our studies were the methods of magnetic resonance, with electron spin resonance (ESR) at 128 GHz being used as the principal detection method. For the first time in experiments with H in high magnetic fields and at low temperatures we combined ESR and NMR to perform electron-nuclear double resonance (ENDOR) as well as coherent two-photon spectroscopy. This allowed to distinguish between different types of interactions in the magnetic resonance spectra. Experiments with 2D H gas utilized the thermal compression method in homogeneous magnetic field, developed in our laboratory. In this work methods were developed for direct studies of 3D H at high density, and for creating high density samples of H in H₂. We measured magnetic resonance line shifts due to collisions in the 2D and 3D H gases. First we observed that the cold collision shift in 2D H gas composed of atoms in a single hyperfine state is much smaller than predicted by the mean-field theory. This motivated us to carry out similar experiments with 3D H. In 3D H the cold collision shift was found to be an order of magnitude smaller for atoms in a single hyperfine state than that for a mixture of atoms in two different hyperfine states. The collisional shifts were found to be in fair agreement with the theory, which takes into account symmetrization of the wave functions of the colliding atoms. The origin of the small shift in the 2D H composed of single hyperfine state atoms is not yet understood. The measurement of the shift in 3D H provides experimental determination for the difference of the scattering lengths of ground state atoms. The experiment with H atoms captured in H2 matrix at temperatures below 1 K originated from our work with H gas. We found out that samples of H in H2 were formed during recombination of gas phase H, enabling sample preparation at temperatures below 0.5 K. Alternatively, we created the samples by electron impact dissociation of H₂ molecules in situ in the solid. By the latter method we reached highest densities of H atoms reported so far, 3.5(5)x10¹⁹ cm^-3. The H atoms were found to be stable for weeks at temperatures below 0.5 K. The observation of dipolar interaction effects provides a verification for the density measurement. Our results point to two different sites for H atoms in H2 lattice. The steady-state nuclear polarizations of the atoms were found to be non-thermal. The possibility for further increase of the impurity H density is considered. At higher densities and lower temperatures it might be possible to observe phenomena related to quantum degeneracy in solid.

Modeling and Analysis of Noise and Interconnects for On-Chip Communication Link Design

This thesis considers modeling and analysis of noise and interconnects in onchip communication. Besides transistor count and speed, the capabilities of a modern design are often limited by on-chip communication links. These links typically consist of multiple interconnects that run parallel to each other for long distances between functional or memory blocks. Due to the scaling of technology, the interconnects have considerable electrical parasitics that affect their performance, power dissipation and signal integrity. Furthermore, because of electromagnetic coupling, the interconnects in the link need to be considered as an interacting group instead of as isolated signal paths. There is a need for accurate and computationally effective models in the early stages of the chip design process to assess or optimize issues affecting these interconnects. For this purpose, a set of analytical models is developed for on-chip data links in this thesis. First, a model is proposed for modeling crosstalk and intersymbol interference. The model takes into account the effects of inductance, initial states and bit sequences. Intersymbol interference is shown to affect crosstalk voltage and propagation delay depending on bus throughput and the amount of inductance. Next, a model is proposed for the switching current of a coupled bus. The model is combined with an existing model to evaluate power supply noise. The model is then applied to reduce both functional crosstalk and power supply noise caused by a bus as a trade-off with time. The proposed reduction method is shown to be effective in reducing long-range crosstalk noise. The effects of process variation on encoded signaling are then modeled. In encoded signaling, the input signals to a bus are encoded using additional signaling circuitry. The proposed model includes variation in both the signaling circuitry and in the wires to calculate the total delay variation of a bus. The model is applied to study level-encoded dual-rail and 1-of-4 signaling. In addition to regular voltage-mode and encoded voltage-mode signaling, current-mode signaling is a promising technique for global communication. A model for energy dissipation in RLC current-mode signaling is proposed in the thesis. The energy is derived separately for the driver, wire and receiver termination.

Streamlining Launch Support Operations in a Product Platform

The new product development process is a massive investment to a company that aims to reduce their products’ time-to-market. Capability to shorter time-to market allows longer life-cycle to products which are introduced to market earlier but also give advantage to start product launch later while simultaneously learning from customer behavior and competitors. The product launch support operations are the last ramp-up activities before the product launching. This study defines what these operations mean in a product platform and how they can be streamlined to be more efficient. The methodology includes interviews, innovative group brainstorming and regular working group meetings. The challenges concerning the current situation of product launch support operations are allocated into four categories: General, Process, Project Resources and Project Management including altogether ten sub challenges. The challenges include issues related to technology and marketing management, branding strategy, organizing the global platform structure, harmonizing processes and clarifying handovers between shareholders in the process. The study makes a suggestion of a new Product Launch Support organization and clarification of its roles, responsibilities and tasks. In addition a new project management tool and Lessons Learned are suggested to improve the project management. The study can be seen as a pre-study when having an aim at combining technological and marketing know-how in the product ramp-up process before actual production. The future proceedings are suggested to include more detailed specifications and implementation in order to reach the long range target, reduced the time-to-market.

Omakotitalojen hintadynamiikka Suomessa

Tämän tutkielma tutkii omakotitalojen hintadynamiikkaa Suomessa 1985Q1-2009Q2 välisenä aikana. Tarkoituksena on luoda pitkänaikavälin tasapainomalli sekä lyhyenajan vektorivirheenkorjausmalli, jonka avulla voidaan selvittää asuntojen hintojen mukautumisnopeus kohti tasapainotilaa. Pitkänajan tasapainomallin mukaan omakotitalojen hintaan vaikuttavat eniten kotitalouksien käytettävissä olevat tulot sekä suhteellinen velkaantuneisuus. Koron merkitys jäi mallissa suhteellisen pieneksi. Sekä tulot että velkaantuneisuus vaikuttavat omakotitalojen hintaan positiivisesti. Asuntojen hintojen mukautumisnopeus kohti tasapainotilaa on kohtalaisen nopeaa. Mallin mukaan Suomessa ei ole havaittavissa selvää asuntojen hintakuplaa.

Customer satisfaction data utilization: identifying value drivers and information use practices

The objective of this master’s thesis was twofold: first to examine the concept of customer value and its drivers and second to identify information use practices. The first part of the study represents explorative research that was carried out by examining a case company’s customer satisfaction data that was used to identify sales and technical customer service related value drivers on a detailed attribute level. This was followed by an examination of whether these attributes had been commented on in a positive or a negative light and what were the reasons why the case company had received higher or lower ratings than its competitor. As a result a classification of different sales and technical customer service related attributes was created. The results indicated that the case company has performed well, but that the results varied on the company’s business segment level. The case company’s staff, service and the benefits from a long-lasting relationship came up in a positive light whereas attitude, flexibility and reaction time came up in a negative light. The reasons for a higher or lower score in comparison to competitor varied. The results indicated that a customer’s satisfaction with the company’s performance did not always mean that the company was outperforming the competition. The second part of the study focused on customer satisfaction information use from the viewpoints of information access, dissemination and reaction. The study was conducted by running an internal survey among the case company’s staff. The results showed that information use practices varied across the company and some units or teams had taken a more proactive approach to the information use than others.

Dynamic Ownership in Family Business System – A Portfolio Business Approach

Family businesses are among the longest-lived most prevalent institutions in the world and they are an important source of economic development and growth. Ownership is a key to the business life of the firm and also one main key in family business definition. There is only a little portfolio entrepreneurship or portfolio business research within family business context. The absence of empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between family ownership and portfolio development presents an important gap in the family business literature. This study deals with the family business ownership changes and the development of portfolios in the family business and it is positioned in to the conversation of family business, growth, ownership, management and strategy. This study contributes and expands the existing body of theory on family business and ownership. From the theoretical point of view this study combines insights from the fields of portfolio entrepreneurship, ownership, and family business and integrate them. This crossfertilization produces interesting empirical and theoretical findings that can constitute a basis for solid contributions to the understanding of ownership dynamics and portfolio entrepreneurship in family firms. The research strategy chosen for this study represents longitudinal, qualitative, hermeneutic, and deductive approaches.The empirical part of study is using a case study approach with embedded design, that is, multiple levels of analysis within a single study. The study consists of two cases and it begins with a pilot case which will form a preunderstanding on the phenomenon. Pilot case develops the methodology approach to build in the main case and the main case will deepen the understanding of the phenomenon. This study develops and tests a research method of family business portfolio development focusing on investigating how ownership changes are influencing to the family business structures over time. This study reveals the linkages between dimensions of ownership and how they give rise to portfolio business development within the context of the family business. The empirical results of the study suggest that family business ownership is dynamic and owners are using ownership as a tool for creating business portfolios.

Spectroscopic Studies of III-V Semiconductor Materials for Improved Devices

Defects in semiconductor crystals and at their interfaces usually impair the properties and the performance of devices. These defects include, for example, vacancies (i.e., missing crystal atoms), interstitials (i.e., extra atoms between the host crystal sites), and impurities such as oxygen atoms. The defects can decrease (i) the rate of the radiative electron transition from the conduction band to the valence band, (ii) the amount of charge carriers, and (iii) the mobility of the electrons in the conduction band. It is a common situation that the presence of crystal defects can be readily concluded as a decrease in the luminescence intensity or in the current flow for example. However, the identification of the harmful defects is not straightforward at all because it is challenging to characterize local defects with atomic resolution and identification. Such atomic-scale knowledge is however essential to find methods for reducing the amount of defects in energy-efficient semiconductor devices. The defects formed in thin interface layers of semiconductors are particularly difficult to characterize due to their buried and amorphous structures. Characterization methods which are sensitive to defects often require well-defined samples with long range order. Photoelectron spectroscopy (PES) combined with photoluminescence (PL) or electrical measurements is a potential approach to elucidate the structure and defects of the interface. It is essential to combine the PES with complementary measurements of similar samples to relate the PES changes to changes in the interface defect density. Understanding of the nature of defects related to III-V materials is relevant to developing for example field-effect transistors which include a III-V channel, but research is still far from complete. In this thesis, PES measurements are utilized in studies of various III-V compound semiconductor materials. PES is combined with photoluminescence measurements to study the SiO2/GaAs, SiNx/GaAs and BaO/GaAs interfaces. Also the formation of novel materials InN and photoluminescent GaAs nanoparticles are studied. Finally, the formation of Ga interstitial defects in GaAsN is elucidated by combining calculational results with PES measurements.

Käsiaseen ulkoballistiikan mallintaminen mobiililaitteella

Työn tavoitteena on poistaa tulostettujen lentoratataulukoiden ja laskukoneen tarve pitkän matkan ammunnassa, sekä myös parantaa osumapisteen arvioinnin tarkkuutta ja nopeutta. Tavoite saavutetaan mobiililaitteelle kehitettävällä ulkoballistiikkasovelluk-sella, joka mallintaa luotien lentoratoja Arthur J. Pejsan kaavojen avulla. Työ tutkii sovelluksen käytön etuja sekä verifioi tulokset käytännön testein ja vertaamalla kilpaileviin hyväksihavaittuihin sovelluksiin.

Customer Knowledge Transfer in MNCs

The purpose of this Master’s thesis was to study customer knowledge transfer processes in multinational corporations (MNCs). The main objective was to examine how customer knowledge is transferred in MNCs and what kind of factors enhance or inhibit the knowledge transfer process, and to create a framework on the basis of the existing literature and the empirical findings. In this thesis the factors were organized according to whether they are properties of the unit involved in knowledge management, properties of relationships between the units or properties of the knowledge itself. There are various properties that influence knowledge transfer but in this thesis the focus was on examining the relevant findings from the customer knowledge viewpoint. Empirical results show that internal fragmentation in the MNC seems to be inherent in this type of organization, and may cause many problems in customer knowledge transfer and utilization. These knowledge transfer inhibitors rise from the organization’s properties: it’s absorptive capacity, motivation, organizational culture, and the two dimensions of knowledge. However, in spite of the inherent forces causing internal fragmentation and inhibiting knowledge transfer, moderate customer knowledge and expertise codification, cooperative working practices among the experts, and socialization mechanisms posed by the headquarters seem to help maintain customer knowledge transfer, and value creation in the long-term relationship. This value creation can be seen to be based on accessing and integrating a wide variety of knowledge resources in order to create a coherent product and service offering.