Smooth height/age curves from stem analysis with linear programming

[Abstract]

Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

Structural and operational optimisation : applications in energy systems

In this work mathematical programming models for structural and operational optimisation of energy systems are developed and applied to a selection of energy technology problems. The studied cases are taken from industrial processes and from large regional energy distribution systems. The models are based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) and on a hybrid approach of a combination of Non-Linear Programming (NLP) and Genetic Algorithms (GA). The optimisation of the structure and operation of energy systems in urban regions is treated in the work. Firstly, distributed energy systems (DES) with different energy conversion units and annual variations of consumer heating and electricity demands are considered. Secondly, district cooling systems (DCS) with cooling demands for a large number of consumers are studied, with respect to a long term planning perspective regarding to given predictions of the consumer cooling demand development in a region. The work comprises also the development of applications for heat recovery systems (HRS), where paper machine dryer section HRS is taken as an illustrative example. The heat sources in these systems are moist air streams. Models are developed for different types of equipment price functions. The approach is based on partitioning of the overall temperature range of the system into a number of temperature intervals in order to take into account the strong nonlinearities due to condensation in the heat recovery exchangers. The influence of parameter variations on the solutions of heat recovery systems is analysed firstly by varying cost factors and secondly by varying process parameters. Point-optimal solutions by a fixed parameter approach are compared to robust solutions with given parameter variation ranges. In the work enhanced utilisation of excess heat in heat recovery systems with impingement drying, electricity generation with low grade excess heat and the use of absorption heat transformers to elevate a stream temperature above the excess heat temperature are also studied.

Short-term Hydropower Planning System

The Thesis gives a decision support framework that has significant impact on the economic performance and viability of a hydropower company. The studyaddresses the short-term hydropower planning problem in the Nordic deregulated electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms, hydropower system characteristics and production planning are presented in the Thesis. The related modelling theory and optimization methods are covered aswell. The Thesis provides a mixed integer linear programming model applied in asuccessive linearization method for optimal bidding and scheduling decisions inthe hydropower system operation within short-term horizon. A scenario based deterministic approach is exploited for modelling uncertainty in market price and inflow. The Thesis proposes a calibration framework to examine the physical accuracy and economic optimality of the decisions suggested by the model. A calibration example is provided with data from a real hydropower system using a commercial modelling application with the mixed integer linear programming solver CPLEX.

Jatkuvavaletun teräksen leikkaussuunnitelman optimointi

Teollisuuden tuotannon eri prosessien optimointi on hyvin ajankohtainen aihe. Monet ohjausjärjestelmät ovat ajalta, jolloin tietokoneiden laskentateho oli hyvin vaatimaton nykyisiin verrattuna. Työssä esitetään tuotantoprosessi, joka sisältää teräksen leikkaussuunnitelman muodostamisongelman. Valuprosessi on yksi teräksen valmistuksen välivaiheita. Siinä sopivaan laatuun saatettu sula teräs valetaan linjastoon, jossa se jähmettyy ja leikataan aihioiksi. Myöhemmissä vaiheissa teräsaihioista muokataan pienempiä kokonaisuuksia, tehtaan lopputuotteita. Jatkuvavaletut aihiot voidaan leikata tilauskannasta riippuen monella eri tavalla. Tätä varten tarvitaan leikkaussuunnitelma, jonka muodostamiseksi on ratkaistava sekalukuoptimointiongelma. Sekalukuoptimointiongelmat ovat optimoinnin haastavin muoto. Niitä on tutkittu yksinkertaisempiin optimointiongelmiin nähden vähän. Nykyisten tietokoneiden laskentateho on kuitenkin mahdollistanut raskaampien ja monimutkaisempien optimointialgoritmien käytön ja kehittämisen. Työssä on käytetty ja esitetty eräs stokastisen optimoinnin menetelmä, differentiaalievoluutioalgoritmi. Tässä työssä esitetään teräksen leikkausoptimointialgoritmi. Kehitetty optimointimenetelmä toimii dynaamisesti tehdasympäristössä käyttäjien määrittelemien parametrien mukaisesti. Työ on osa Syncron Tech Oy:n Ovako Bar Oy Ab:lle toimittamaa ohjausjärjestelmää.

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

Analysis of patterns in mining time series using Qlucore

Raw measurement data does not always immediately convey useful information, but applying mathematical statistical analysis tools into measurement data can improve the situation. Data analysis can offer benefits like acquiring meaningful insight from the dataset, basing critical decisions on the findings, and ruling out human bias through proper statistical treatment. In this thesis we analyze data from an industrial mineral processing plant with the aim of studying the possibility of forecasting the quality of the final product, given by one variable, with a model based on the other variables. For the study mathematical tools like Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) and Sparse Bayesian regression (SB) are used. Later on, linear regression is used to build a model based on a subset of variables that seem to have most significant weights in the SB model. The results obtained from QOE show that the variable representing the desired final product does not correlate with other variables. For SB and linear regression, the results show that both SB and linear regression models built on 1-day averaged data seriously underestimate the variance of true data, whereas the two models built on 1-month averaged data are reliable and able to explain a larger proportion of variability in the available data, making them suitable for prediction purposes. However, it is concluded that no single model can fit well the whole available dataset and therefore, it is proposed for future work to make piecewise non linear regression models if the same available dataset is used, or the plant to provide another dataset that should be collected in a more systematic fashion than the present data for further analysis.

Harustetun 110 kV kannatuspylvään konseptin kehittäminen

Diplomityössä kehitettiin harustetun 110 kV kannatuspylvään konsepti tuotteeksi. Pylväs on säänkestävästä teräksestä valmistettu putkipalkkirakenteinen I-pylväs. Tavoitteena oli suunnitella rakenteesta kokonaistaloudellisesti edullinen. Rakenteen suunnittelussa otettiin huomioon valmistus-, kuljetus- ja varastointi- sekä rakentamisnäkökohtia. Työssä perehdyttiin pylväsrakenteiden yksityiskohtiin, putkipalkkien liitosmenetelmiin ja pylvään jalan nivelöintiratkaisuihin. Säänkestävä rakennemateriaali otettiin huomioon rakennesuunnittelussa. Rakenteen lujuusteknisen suunnittelun apuna käytettiin epälineaarista elementtimenetelmää. Pylväsrakenteen käyttäytyminen mallinnettiin geometrisesti epälineaariseksi, ja liitosdetaljien analysointia varten kehitettiin epälineaarisia materiaalimalleja. Rakenteen värähtelykäyttäytyminen analysoitiin myös elementtimenetelmällä. Lopputuloksena saatiin aikaan pylväs, joka täyttää sille asetetut vaatimukset. Pylväs on helposti valmistettava, kuljetettava ja pystytettävä.

Software for design of experiments and response modelling of cake ltration applications

Filtration is a widely used unit operation in chemical engineering. The huge variation in the properties of materials to be ltered makes the study of ltration a challenging task. One of the objectives of this thesis was to show that conventional ltration theories are di cult to use when the system to be modelled contains all of the stages and features that are present in a complete solid/liquid separation process. Furthermore, most of the ltration theories require experimental work to be performed in order to obtain critical parameters required by the theoretical models. Creating a good overall understanding of how the variables a ect the nal product in ltration is somewhat impossible on a purely theoretical basis. The complexity of solid/liquid separation processes require experimental work and when tests are needed, it is advisable to use experimental design techniques so that the goals can be achieved. The statistical design of experiments provides the necessary tools for recognising the e ects of variables. It also helps to perform experimental work more economically. Design of experiments is a prerequisite for creating empirical models that can describe how the measured response is related to the changes in the values of the variable. A software package was developed that provides a ltration practitioner with experimental designs and calculates the parameters for linear regression models, along with the graphical representation of the responses. The developed software consists of two software modules. These modules are LTDoE and LTRead. The LTDoE module is used to create experimental designs for di erent lter types. The lter types considered in the software are automatic vertical pressure lter, double-sided vertical pressure lter, horizontal membrane lter press, vacuum belt lter and ceramic capillary action disc lter. It is also possible to create experimental designs for those cases where the variables are totally user de ned, say for a customized ltration cycle or di erent piece of equipment. The LTRead-module is used to read the experimental data gathered from the experiments, to analyse the data and to create models for each of the measured responses. Introducing the structure of the software more in detail and showing some of the practical applications is the main part of this thesis. This approach to the study of cake ltration processes, as presented in this thesis, has been shown to have good practical value when making ltration tests.

The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options

En option är ett finansiellt kontrakt som ger dess innehavare en rättighet (men medför ingen skyldighet) att sälja eller köpa någonting (till exempel en aktie) till eller från säljaren av optionen till ett visst pris vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Den som säljer optionen binder sig till att gå med på denna framtida transaktion ifall optionsinnehavaren längre fram bestämmer sig för att inlösa optionen. Säljaren av optionen åtar sig alltså en risk av att den framtida transaktion som optionsinnehavaren kan tvinga honom att göra visar sig vara ofördelaktig för honom. Frågan om hur säljaren kan skydda sig mot denna risk leder till intressanta optimeringsproblem, där målet är att hitta en optimal skyddsstrategi under vissa givna villkor. Sådana optimeringsproblem har studerats mycket inom finansiell matematik. Avhandlingen "The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options" inför en ytterligare synpunkt till denna diskussion: I en relativt enkel (ändlig och komplett) marknadsmodell kan nämligen vissa partiella skyddsproblem beskrivas som så kallade kappsäcksproblem. De sistnämnda är välkända inom en gren av matematik som heter operationsanalys. I avhandlingen visas hur skyddsproblem som tidigare lösts på andra sätt kan alternativt lösas med hjälp av metoder som utvecklats för kappsäcksproblem. Förfarandet tillämpas även på helt nya skyddsproblem i samband med så kallade amerikanska optioner.

Aging based maintenance and reinvestment scheduling of electric distribution

The maintenance of electric distribution network is a topical question for distribution system operators because of increasing significance of failure costs. In this dissertation the maintenance practices of the distribution system operators are analyzed and a theory for scheduling maintenance activities and reinvestment of distribution components is created. The scheduling is based on the deterioration of components and the increasing failure rates due to aging. The dynamic programming algorithm is used as a solving method to maintenance problem which is caused by the increasing failure rates of the network. The other impacts of network maintenance like environmental and regulation reasons are not included to the scope of this thesis. Further the tree trimming of the corridors and the major disturbance of the network are not included to the problem optimized in this thesis. For optimizing, four dynamic programming models are presented and the models are tested. Programming is made in VBA-language to the computer. For testing two different kinds of test networks are used. Because electric distribution system operators want to operate with bigger component groups, optimal timing for component groups is also analyzed. A maintenance software package is created to apply the presented theories in practice. An overview of the program is presented.

Software for design of experiments and response modelling of cake filtration applications

Filtration is a widely used unit operation in chemical engineering. The huge variation in the properties of materials to be ltered makes the study of ltration a challenging task. One of the objectives of this thesis was to show that conventional ltration theories are di cult to use when the system to be modelled contains all of the stages and features that are present in a complete solid/liquid separation process. Furthermore, most of the ltration theories require experimental work to be performed in order to obtain critical parameters required by the theoretical models. Creating a good overall understanding of how the variables a ect the nal product in ltration is somewhat impossible on a purely theoretical basis. The complexity of solid/liquid separation processes require experimental work and when tests are needed, it is advisable to use experimental design techniques so that the goals can be achieved. The statistical design of experiments provides the necessary tools for recognising the e ects of variables. It also helps to perform experimental work more economically. Design of experiments is a prerequisite for creating empirical models that can describe how the measured response is related to the changes in the values of the variable. A software package was developed that provides a ltration practitioner with experimental designs and calculates the parameters for linear regression models, along with the graphical representation of the responses. The developed software consists of two software modules. These modules are LTDoE and LTRead. The LTDoE module is used to create experimental designs for di erent lter types. The lter types considered in the software are automatic vertical pressure lter, double-sided vertical pressure lter, horizontal membrane lter press, vacuum belt lter and ceramic capillary action disc lter. It is also possible to create experimental designs for those cases where the variables are totally user de ned, say for a customized ltration cycle or di erent piece of equipment. The LTRead-module is used to read the experimental data gathered from the experiments, to analyse the data and to create models for each of the measured responses. Introducing the structure of the software more in detail and showing some of the practical applications is the main part of this thesis. This approach to the study of cake ltration processes, as presented in this thesis, has been shown to have good practical value when making ltration tests.

Application of the scrum framework in non-software project management

Scrum is an agile project management approach that has been widely practiced in the software development projects. It has proven to increase quality, productivity, customer satisfaction, transparency and team morale among other benefits from its implementation. The concept of scrum is based on the concepts of incremental innovation strategies, lean manufacturing, kaizen, iterative development and so on and is usually contrasted with the linear development models such as the waterfall method in the software industry. The traditional approaches to project management such as the waterfall method imply intensive upfront planning and approval of the entire project. These sort of approaches work well in the well-defined stable environments where all the specifications of the project are known in the beginning. However, in the uncertain environments when a project requires continuous development and incorporation of new requirements, they do not tend to work well. The scrum framework was inspiraed by Nonaka’s article about new product developement and was later adopted by software development practitioners. This research explores conditions for and benefits of the application of scrum framework beyond software development projects. There are currently a few case studies on the scrum implementation in non-software projects, but there is a noticeable trend of it in the scrum practitioners’ community. The research is based on the real-life context multiple case study analysis of three different non-software projects. The results of the research showed that in order to succeed within scrum projects need to satisfy certain conditions – necessary and sufficient. Among them the key factors are uncertainty of the project environment, not well defined outcomes, commitment of the scrum teams and management support. The top advantages of scrum implementation identified in the present research include improved transparency, accountability, team morale, communications, cooperation and collaboration. Further researches are advised to be carried out in order to validate these findings on a larger sample and to focus on more specific areas of scrum project management implementation.