Idiosyncratic volatility around information release date

Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

Huulisuihkun homogeenisuuden vaikutus paperin rakenneominaisuuksiin

Työssä verrattiin perälaatikoilla 1 ja 2 valmistettujen papereiden rakenteellisia ominaisuuksia. Paperin rakenteessa formaatio oli tärkein ominaisuus ja sen jälkeen kuituorientaatio. Näytteiden valintaperusteena pidettiin sitä, että vertailtavilla näytteillä formaatio (pohja) oli paras kyseisellä perälaatikolla ja vetolujuussuhteet olivat samoja. Toinen valintatapa oli verrata samoissa virtausolosuhteissa valmistettuja papereita keskenään. Näytteiden formaatio mitattiin betaradiografialla. Fosforikuvalevystä skannattu kuva analysoitiin kuva-analyysillä. Mittauksen etuna oli suuri erottelukyky, joka mahdollisti monipuolisen tunnuslukujen laskennan. Näistä esimerkkeinä olivat keskihajonta, vinous ja huipukkuus. Lisäksi määritettiin flokkikokojakaumat sekä kone- että poikkisuuntaan. Kuituorientaation määrityksessä paperinäyte revittiin kerroksiin, kerrokset skannattiin ja kuvat analysoitiin kuvankäsittelyohjelmilla. Juova- ja kuituorientaatioanalyysissä määritettiin orientaatiokulma, max/min-arvo ja anisotropia. Virtaviiva-analyysin tunnusluku oli pyörrekoko. Käytettäessä tunnuslukuna variaatiokerrointa formaatio oli parempi perälaatikolla 1 ali- ja yliperällä. Tasaperän läheisyydessä formaatio oli huonompi. Keskihajonta oli pienempi perälaatikolla 1, mutta erot perälaatikoiden välillä tasaantuivat lähellä tasaperää. Flokkikoko oli koko s/v-alueella hieman suurempi perälaatikolla 1. Virtaviiva-analyysin avulla saatiin selville, että perälaatikolla 1 valmistettujen papereiden paikallinen orientaatiovaihtelu ja pintojen toispuoleisuus oli lievempää kuin perälaatikolla 2.

Vinouden huomioiva arvopapereiden hinnoittelumalli ja sen empiirinen testaaminen Suomen markkinoilla

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on tutkia osaketuottojen jakauman vinoutta ja sen mahdollisia vaikutuksia osakkeiden hinnoitteluun Suomen markkinoilla. Aineistona käytetään kuutta portfoliota jotka on muodostettu Suomen markkinoilla noteerattavista osakkeista ajanjaksolla 1.1.1987–31.12.2004. Osakkeet on jaettu portfolioihin markkina-arvon mukaan. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että osaketuotot Suomen markkinoilla ovat positiivisesti vinoja mutta pääosin eivät merkitsevästi. Teoreettisen taustan perusteella olisi ollut odotettavaa, että vinoutta olisi ollut enemmän. Regressioanalyysillä ja kahta artikkelia replikoiden tutkittiin perinteisen ja vinouden sisältäviä CAPM-malleja. Odotettavissa oli, että perinteinen CAPM-malli suoriutuu huonommin kuin vinouden sisältävä. Regressio-analyysillä testatessa molemmat mallit suoriutuivat hyvin tuottojen selittämisessä, mutta vakiotermien perusteella kolmimomenttinen malli suoriutuisi paremmin. Regressiomallin ja artikkelin perusteella saadut betat olivat yhteneväisiä. Regressiomallin ja artikkelin perusteella saaduissa gam-moissa oli kuitenkin eroja ja niiden perusteella ei voida tehdä johtopäätöksiä. Regressiomalli näyttäisi kuitenkin huomioivan vinouden.

Reconstruction and analysis of surface variation using photometric stereo

In many industrial applications, accurate and fast surface reconstruction is essential for quality control. Variation in surface finishing parameters, such as surface roughness, can reflect defects in a manufacturing process, non-optimal product operational efficiency, and reduced life expectancy of the product. This thesis considers reconstruction and analysis of high-frequency variation, that is roughness, on planar surfaces. Standard roughness measures in industry are calculated from surface topography. A fast and non-contact method to obtain surface topography is to apply photometric stereo in the estimation of surface gradients and to reconstruct the surface by integrating the gradient fields. Alternatively, visual methods, such as statistical measures, fractal dimension and distance transforms, can be used to characterize surface roughness directly from gray-scale images. In this thesis, the accuracy of distance transforms, statistical measures, and fractal dimension are evaluated in the estimation of surface roughness from gray-scale images and topographies. The results are contrasted to standard industry roughness measures. In distance transforms, the key idea is that distance values calculated along a highly varying surface are greater than distances calculated along a smoother surface. Statistical measures and fractal dimension are common surface roughness measures. In the experiments, skewness and variance of brightness distribution, fractal dimension, and distance transforms exhibited strong linear correlations to standard industry roughness measures. One of the key strengths of photometric stereo method is the acquisition of higher frequency variation of surfaces. In this thesis, the reconstruction of planar high-frequency varying surfaces is studied in the presence of imaging noise and blur. Two Wiener filterbased methods are proposed of which one is optimal in the sense of surface power spectral density given the spectral properties of the imaging noise and blur. Experiments show that the proposed methods preserve the inherent high-frequency variation in the reconstructed surfaces, whereas traditional reconstruction methods typically handle incorrect measurements by smoothing, which dampens the high-frequency variation.

Role of Selected Spectral Attributes in the Perception of Synthetic Vowels

This thesis is an experimental study regarding the identification and discrimination of vowels, studied using synthetic stimuli. The acoustic attributes of synthetic stimuli vary, which raises the question of how different spectral attributes are linked to the behaviour of the subjects. The spectral attributes used are formants and spectral moments (centre of gravity, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). Two types of experiments are used, related to the identification and discrimination of the stimuli, respectively. The discrimination is studied by using both the attentive procedures that require a response from the subject, and the preattentive procedures that require no response. Together, the studies offer information about the identification and discrimination of synthetic vowels in 15 different languages. Furthermore, this thesis discusses the role of various spectral attributes in the speech perception processes. The thesis is divided into three studies. The first is based only on attentive methods, whereas the other two concentrate on the relationship between identification and discrimination experiments. The neurophysiological methods (EEG recordings) reveal the role of attention in processing, and are used in discrimination experiments, while the results reveal differences in perceptual processes based on the language, attention and experimental procedure.

Analysis of Satellite Data for Forest Segmentation

In this work we study the classification of forest types using mathematics based image analysis on satellite data. We are interested in improving classification of forest segments when a combination of information from two or more different satellites is used. The experimental part is based on real satellite data originating from Canada. This thesis gives summary of the mathematics basics of the image analysis and supervised learning , methods that are used in the classification algorithm. Three data sets and four feature sets were investigated in this thesis. The considered feature sets were 1) histograms (quantiles) 2) variance 3) skewness and 4) kurtosis. Good overall performances were achieved when a combination of ASTERBAND and RADARSAT2 data sets was used.

Causation and dominance : a study of Finnish causative verbs expressing social dominance

En väsentlig fråga inom såväl lingvistiska som kognitiva teorier är, hur språket beskriver kausala relationer. I finskan finns det en speciell typ av kausativa verb avledda med suffixet (U)ttA som används för att uttrycka att handlingen i fråga utförs av någon annan än subjektreferenten, t.ex. Maija haetuttaa Matilla kirjastosta kirjan ’Maija låter Matti hämta boken från biblioteket’ och Matti juoksuttaa Maijan kaupunkiin ’Matti låter Maija springa till staden’. Syftet med denna avhandling var att med exempel av sociala dominansens kausativer undersöka ordbildningens natur samt begreppet ’socialt förorsakande’. För att beskriva avledningars regelbundna argumentstruktur i form av kopplingen mellan syntaxen och semantiken upprättades deras prototypiska strukturer. Dessa verb har emellertid också specifika användningsområden som framhäver variationer i sociala relationer. Säregna egenskaper hos den sociala dominansens kausativer inkluderades i undersökningen och definierades som konstruktioner. Konstruktionerna omfattar speciella syntaktiska och/eller semantiska element och utöver det också pragmatiska värderande implikationer. Uppbyggnaden av den sociala dimensionen hos de undersökta verben består av egenskaper förbundna med typen av förorsakande, argumentens agentiva egenskaper (aktivitet eller passivitet, dominans, kontroll, viljestyrdhet och ansvarighet) samt konventionaliserade attityder och tolkningar. Ett exempel på en s.k. 'tolkningskonstruktion’ är den negativa dominansens uttryck som i avhandlingen kallas Maktmissbrukskonstruktionen. Denna konstruktion inkluderar talarens starkt kritiska hållning till den uttryckta situationen, t.ex. Asiakas juoksuttaa lentoemäntää ’Kunden låter flygvärdinnan springa’. Dessa konstruktioner fyller en viktig funktion i språklig kommunikation: att beskriva avvikande av sociala normer och att foga expressivitet till budskapet. Metodologiskt kombinerar denna avhandling teorier som baseras på det aktuella språkbruket och teoretisk lingvistisk analys. Verbens samt konstruktionernas konceptuella lexikala struktur och prototypstrukturerna analyserades med hjälp av den konceptuella semantikens verktyg, som har utvecklats av Jackendoff, Nikanne och Pörn.

Management of commercial property derived risks in the market context of the Russian Federation

The objective of the thesis is to examine the current state of risk management and to determine an appropriate risk management policy for commercial property derived risks in the Russian branch of a Finnish retail trade company. The employed research methodologies are comparative in-depth interviews and empirical value at risk analysis, including portfolio risk decomposition to determine the inter-currency characteristics. For a multinational retail trade company, the commercial property derived risks open up as a diverse combination of financial and non-financial risks with four distinctive interest groups. The research results indicate that geographical diversification across currency regimes provides diversification benefits. The Russian ruble is the most significant single risk component when considering the net investments outside the euro-zone. Decreasing the Russian ruble and Swedish krona exposures are the most effective methods to reduce translation derived risk. Exchange rate volatility varies over time according to idiosyncratic currency regime characteristics, and cost-effective risk management requires comprehensive analysis of the business environment. Profound and proactive risk management methods are found to be pivotal for companies with cross-border operations in order to succeed among international competitors.

Reflexive Space. A Constructionist Model of the Russian Reflexive Marker

This study examines the structure of the Russian Reflexive Marker ( ся/-сь) and offers a usage-based model building on Construction Grammar and a probabilistic view of linguistic structure. Traditionally, reflexive verbs are accounted for relative to non-reflexive verbs. These accounts assume that linguistic structures emerge as pairs. Furthermore, these accounts assume directionality where the semantics and structure of a reflexive verb can be derived from the non-reflexive verb. However, this directionality does not necessarily hold diachronically. Additionally, the semantics and the patterns associated with a particular reflexive verb are not always shared with the non-reflexive verb. Thus, a model is proposed that can accommodate the traditional pairs as well as for the possible deviations without postulating different systems. A random sample of 2000 instances marked with the Reflexive Marker was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and the sample used in this study contains 819 unique reflexive verbs. This study moves away from the traditional pair account and introduces the concept of Neighbor Verb. A neighbor verb exists for a reflexive verb if they share the same phonological form excluding the Reflexive Marker. It is claimed here that the Reflexive Marker constitutes a system in Russian and the relation between the reflexive and neighbor verbs constitutes a cross-paradigmatic relation. Furthermore, the relation between the reflexive and the neighbor verb is argued to be of symbolic connectivity rather than directionality. Effectively, the relation holding between particular instantiations can vary. The theoretical basis of the present study builds on this assumption. Several new variables are examined in order to systematically model variability of this symbolic connectivity, specifically the degree and strength of connectivity between items. In usage-based models, the lexicon does not constitute an unstructured list of items. Instead, items are assumed to be interconnected in a network. This interconnectedness is defined as Neighborhood in this study. Additionally, each verb carves its own niche within the Neighborhood and this interconnectedness is modeled through rhyme verbs constituting the degree of connectivity of a particular verb in the lexicon. The second component of the degree of connectivity concerns the status of a particular verb relative to its rhyme verbs. The connectivity within the neighborhood of a particular verb varies and this variability is quantified by using the Levenshtein distance. The second property of the lexical network is the strength of connectivity between items. Frequency of use has been one of the primary variables in functional linguistics used to probe this. In addition, a new variable called Constructional Entropy is introduced in this study building on information theory. It is a quantification of the amount of information carried by a particular reflexive verb in one or more argument constructions. The results of the lexical connectivity indicate that the reflexive verbs have statistically greater neighborhood distances than the neighbor verbs. This distributional property can be used to motivate the traditional observation that the reflexive verbs tend to have idiosyncratic properties. A set of argument constructions, generalizations over usage patterns, are proposed for the reflexive verbs in this study. In addition to the variables associated with the lexical connectivity, a number of variables proposed in the literature are explored and used as predictors in the model. The second part of this study introduces the use of a machine learning algorithm called Random Forests. The performance of the model indicates that it is capable, up to a degree, of disambiguating the proposed argument construction types of the Russian Reflexive Marker. Additionally, a global ranking of the predictors used in the model is offered. Finally, most construction grammars assume that argument construction form a network structure. A new method is proposed that establishes generalization over the argument constructions referred to as Linking Construction. In sum, this study explores the structural properties of the Russian Reflexive Marker and a new model is set forth that can accommodate both the traditional pairs and potential deviations from it in a principled manner.

The Role of a firm’s mindset in international success - case study of Finnish marine industry firms

This thesis investigates the influence of a firm’s mindset on international success in the context of the Finnish marine industry. The study draws theoretical wisdom from organisational behaviour and strategic management literatures. The research aim set for this study was to identify and categorise existing strategic types based on mindsets found in the marine industry SMEs, and to link the influence of mindsets with success by examining the role of mindsets in a firm’s performance. Mindsets of firms were conceptualised as aggregate collections of perceptions that influence how the surrounding environment is discerned by the members of the firm. Mindsets are idiosyncratic to firms and therefore important firm-specific resources which influence decision-making and can be observed through the strategic behaviour of firms. Qualitative case study method was applied which was further supported by quantitative data on the financial performance of the ten case firms. Taxonomy based on the dimension of mindsets and prediction was developed to demonstrate four ideal types of firms identified within the marine industry. It was found that all of the case firms emphasised adaptation in their strategy while planning was emphasised to a varying degree. Moreover, two different methods of adapting were found; proactive and reactive. Firms which plan in the long-term and adapt proactively constantly investigate whether their plans are synchronous with the realities of the market; by having an open mindset, a firm’s perception of the reality of the market is enabling the firm to develop value creating strategies which are superiorly informed.This finding was supported by the financial data and led to the proposition that having an open mindset and placing a high level of emphasis on prediction may have a positive influence on international success. Also, it was proposed that concentrating only on exploiting business opportunities in the present time and not exploring any addition opportunities can have a negative influence on the firm’s performance, even if the mindset of the firm is open.

Perheyrityksen erityispiirteiden vaikutukset yrityskaupan jälkeisessä integraatiossa

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tunnistaa, kuvata ja ymmärtää perheyrityksen erityispiirteitä ja niiden ilmentymistä yrityskaupan jälkeisessä integraatiossa. Tutkielmassa käytetään apuna resurssiperusteista näkemystä yrityksen kilpailukykyä luovista resursseista. Erityispiirteiden tunnistaminen on tärkeää, jotta yrityskaupan integraatiossa ne voidaan huomioida ja hyödyntää kilpailukyvyn säilyttämiseksi. Tutkimus on luonteeltaan laadullinen tapaustutkimus. Tutkielman empiirisenä aineistona ovat kohdeyrityksen työntekijöiden ja entisen omistajan haastattelut sekä yrityksessä suoritettu osallistuva havainnointi. Tutkimuksen tuloksena todetaan, että tapauksen perheyrityksen erityispiirteillä on henkilöstön näkökulmasta sekä hyödyntäviä että haittaavia vaikutuksia yrityskaupan jälkeisen integraation aikana.

Alhaisen volatiliteetin sekä korkean idiosynkraattisen riskin anomaliat Suomen osakemarkkinoilla institutionaalisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta

Alhaisen volatiliteetin anomalian mukaan sijoittajan on mahdollista saada korkeaa tuottoa alhaisella riskillä, mikä on sijoitusstrategina mielenkiintoinen, koska modernin rahoitusteorian mukaan korkeat tuotot saavutetaan vain riskiä kasvattamalla. Tässä tutkielmassa selvitettiin alhaisen volatiliteetin ja korkean idiosynkraattisen riskin anomalioiden olemassaoloa Suomen osakemarkkinoilla sekä institutionaalisen sijoittajan mahdollisuuksia hyödyntää tutkittuja anomalioita. Tutkimusaineisto large cap -osakkeilla vuosilta 2000-2013 osoittaa, että sijoittamalla alhaisen volatiliteetin osakkeisiin sijoittaja on pystynyt voittamaan absoluuttisella tuotolla mitattuna OMXH CAP-indeksin, muttei saavuttamaan riskikorjattuja ylituottoja. Alhaisen volatiliteetin osakkeiden suoriutumista on selitetty useilla tekijöillä kuten sijoittajien irrationaalisella käyttäytymisellä näiden suosiessa korkean volatiliteetin osakkeita painaen alas samalla näiden tuottopotentiaalia. Toiseksi, alhaisen volatiliteetin yrityksillä on vahvat fundamentit, joiden myötä liikevoitto sekä tulos pysyvät vahvoina, joka näkyy puolestaan hyvinä osaketuottoina. Lisäksi, institutionaaliselle sijoittajalle muodostuu esteitä sijoittaa vain alhaisen volatiliteetin osakkeisiin, mikä osaltaan estää anomalian pois pyyhkiytymisen. Idiosynkraattisen riskin anomaliaa ei voitu todentaa käytettäessä FF3-mallin residuaaleja. Anomaliaa tutkittiin historiallista sekä EGARCH-mallilla ennustettua idiosynkraattista riskiä käyttäen.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.