Variation in forest fire ignition probability in Finland

Abstract

Effect of Mechanical and Geometric Mismatching on Fatigue and Damage of Welded Joints

The future of high technology welded constructions will be characterised by higher strength materials and improved weld quality with respect to fatigue resistance. The expected implementation of high quality high strength steel welds will require that more attention be given to the issues of crack initiation and mechanical mismatching. Experiments and finite element analyses were performed within the framework of continuum damage mechanics to investigate the effect of mismatching of welded joints on void nucleation and coalescence during monotonic loading. It was found that the damage of undermatched joints mainly occurred in the sandwich layer and the damageresistance of the joints decreases with the decrease of the sandwich layer width. The damage of over-matched joints mainly occurred in the base metal adjacent to the sandwich layer and the damage resistance of the joints increases with thedecrease of the sandwich layer width. The mechanisms of the initiation of the micro voids/cracks were found to be cracking of the inclusions or the embrittled second phase, and the debonding of the inclusions from the matrix. Experimental fatigue crack growth rate testing showed that the fatigue life of under-matched central crack panel specimens is longer than that of over-matched and even-matched specimens. Further investigation by the elastic-plastic finite element analysis indicated that fatigue crack closure, which originated from the inhomogeneousyielding adjacent to the crack tip, played an important role in the fatigue crack propagation. The applicability of the J integral concept to the mismatched specimens with crack extension under cyclic loading was assessed. The concept of fatigue class used by the International Institute of Welding was introduced in the parametric numerical analysis of several welded joints. The effect of weld geometry and load condition on fatigue strength of ferrite-pearlite steel joints was systematically evaluated based on linear elastic fracture mechanics. Joint types included lap joints, angle joints and butt joints. Various combinations of the tensile and bending loads were considered during the evaluation with the emphasis focused on the existence of both root and toe cracks. For a lap joint with asmall lack-of-penetration, a reasonably large weld leg and smaller flank angle were recommended for engineering practice in order to achieve higher fatigue strength. It was found that the fatigue strength of the angle joint depended strongly on the location and orientation of the preexisting crack-like welding defects, even if the joint was welded with full penetration. It is commonly believed that the double sided butt welds can have significantly higher fatigue strength than that of a single sided welds, but fatigue crack initiation and propagation can originate from the weld root if the welding procedure results in a partial penetration. It is clearly shown that the fatigue strength of the butt joint could be improved remarkably by ensuring full penetration. Nevertheless, increasing the fatigue strength of a butt joint by increasing the size of the weld is an uneconomical alternative.

Spectral Analysis of Buffers in Communication Systems

Muokatun matriisi-geometrian tekniikan kehitys yleimmäksi jonoksi on esitelty tässä työssä. Jonotus systeemi koostuu useista jonoista joilla on rajatut kapasiteetit. Tässä työssä on myös tutkittu PH-tyypin jakautumista kun ne jaetaan. Rakenne joka vastaa lopullista Markovin ketjua jossa on itsenäisiä matriiseja joilla on QBD rakenne. Myös eräitä rajallisia olotiloja on käsitelty tässä työssä. Sen esitteleminen matriisi-geometrisessä muodossa, muokkaamalla matriisi-geometristä ratkaisua on tämän opinnäytetyön tulos.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Size Effect and Notch Size Effect in Metal Fatigue

It is a well known phenomenon that the constant amplitude fatigue limit of a large component is lower than the fatigue limit of a small specimen made of the same material. In notched components the opposite occurs: the fatigue limit defined as the maximum stress at the notch is higher than that achieved with smooth specimens. These two effects have been taken into account in most design handbooks with the help of experimental formulas or design curves. The basic idea of this study is that the size effect can mainly be explained by the statistical size effect. A component subjected to an alternating load can be assumed to form a sample of initiated cracks at the end of the crack initiation phase. The size of the sample depends on the size of the specimen in question. The main objective of this study is to develop a statistical model for the estimation of this kind of size effect. It was shown that the size of a sample of initiated cracks shall be based on the stressed surface area of the specimen. In case of varying stress distribution, an effective stress area must be calculated. It is based on the decreasing probability of equally sized initiated cracks at lower stress level. If the distribution function of the parent population of cracks is known, the distribution of the maximum crack size in a sample can be defined. This makes it possible to calculate an estimate of the largest expected crack in any sample size. The estimate of the fatigue limit can now be calculated with the help of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. In notched components another source of size effect has to be taken into account. If we think about two specimens which have similar shape, but the size is different, it can be seen that the stress gradient in the smaller specimen is steeper. If there is an initiated crack in both of them, the stress intensity factor at the crack in the larger specimen is higher. The second goal of this thesis is to create a calculation method for this factor which is called the geometric size effect. The proposed method for the calculation of the geometric size effect is also based on the use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. It is possible to calculate an accurate value of the stress intensity factor in a non linear stress field using weight functions. The calculated stress intensity factor values at the initiated crack can be compared to the corresponding stress intensity factor due to constant stress. The notch size effect is calculated as the ratio of these stress intensity factors. The presented methods were tested against experimental results taken from three German doctoral works. Two candidates for the parent population of initiated cracks were found: the Weibull distribution and the log normal distribution. Both of them can be used successfully for the prediction of the statistical size effect for smooth specimens. In case of notched components the geometric size effect due to the stress gradient shall be combined with the statistical size effect. The proposed method gives good results as long as the notch in question is blunt enough. For very sharp notches, stress concentration factor about 5 or higher, the method does not give sufficient results. It was shown that the plastic portion of the strain becomes quite high at the root of this kind of notches. The use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics becomes therefore questionable.