Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Investment Determinants and Future Shape of Russia's Power Generation

The reformation of power sector is still in the process of development. The present day situation in Russian electricity power market ischaracterized as transitional period: competitive electricity market is forming, new companies are being created and the power of government regulation is decreasing. The main aim of the reformation is to attract much-needed private investments to the power sector. The electricity consumption increases very rapidly and power sector has to cope with high demand. The goal of this master's thesis is to analyze the nowadays situation in Russian power sector, such as generation structure, condition of electricity networks, electricity price formation for end-users, shape of fuel sector and investments risks and attraction.The final result of this work is creation of scenario of Russian power sector future shape and analysis of the present day situation.

Managing innovation in oil and gas companies: A proposed framework for the management of innovation at Ecopetrol S.A.

Actually, the term innovation seems to be one of the most used in any kind of business practices. However, in order to get value from it, companies need to define a systematic and structured way to manage innovation. This process can be difficult and very risky since it is associated with the development of firm´s capabilities which involves human and technical challenges according to the context of a firm. Additionally, it seems not to exist a magic formula to manage innovation and what may work in a company may not work in another, even though in the same type of industry. In this sense, the purpose of this research is to identify how the oil and gas companies can manage innovation and what are the main elements, their interrelations and structure, required for managing innovation effectively in this critical sector for the world economy. The study follows a holistic single case study in a National Oil Company (NOC) of a developing country to explore how innovation performs in the industry, what are the main elements regarding innovation management and their interactions according to the nature of the industry. Contributory literature and qualitative data from the case study company (with the use of non-standardized interviews) is collected and analyzed. The research confirms the relevance and importance of the definition and implementation of an innovation framework in order to ensure the generation of value and organize as well as guide the efforts in innovation done by a firm. In this way based on the theoretical background, research´s findings, and in the company´s innovation environment and conditions, a framework for managing innovation at the case study company is suggested. This study is one of the few, if not only one, that has reviewed the way as oil and gas companies manage innovation and its practical implementation in a company from a developing country. Both researchers and practitioners will get a photograph of understanding innovation management in the oil and gas industry and its growing necessity in the business world. Some issues have been highlighted, so that future study can be focused in those directions. In fact, even though research on innovation management has significantly grown, there are still many issues that need to be addressed to get insight about managing innovation in various contexts and industries. Studies are mostly performed in the context of large firms and in developed countries, so then research in the context of developing countries is still almost an untouched area, especially in the oil and gas industry. Finally, from the research it seems crucial to explore the effect of some innovation-related variables such as: open innovation in third world economies and in state-own companies; the impact of mergers and acquisitions in innovation performance in oil and gas companies; value measurement in the first stages of the innovation process; and, development of innovation capabilities in companies from developing nations.

The impact of long-term brand development strategies on brand value of companies operating in high-technology markets

The objective of the current research is to investigate brand value generation. The study is conducted in the context of high-technology companies. The research aims at finding the impact of long-term brand development strategies, including advertising investments, R&D investments, R&D intensity, new products developed and design. The empirical part of the study incorporated collection of primary and secondary data on 36 companies operating in high-technology sector and being rated as top companies with the most valuable brands by Interbrand consultancy. The data contained information for six consequent years from 2008 to 2013. Obtained data was analyzed using the methods of fixed effect and random effect model (panel data analysis). The analysis showed positive effect of advertising and R&D investments on brand value of high-technology companies in the long run. The impact of remaining three strategies was not approved and further investigation is required.

Upgrading of thethird generation of the Remote Diagnostic Systems for ABB Marine Propulsion Systems

Remote diagnostics has become very popular in marine industry. Diagnostic systems are improved all the time and the newest monitoring systems are constantly taken into operation. Most vessels are, however, rigged up by outmoded facilities, which should be updated. In this work the principles of operating of such a remote diagnostic system as the ABB's third generation remote diagnostic system (RDS) and the newest Propulsion Condition Management System (PCMS) are studied. As a result of the thesis the ways of upgrading the old systems of RDS are presented. Specifically, the work focuses on the establishment of the connection between Advant controller AC-110 from the old system and PCMS server, and in other words how to get Modbus data by OPC server.

Öljyvahinkojätteiden käsittely Kymenlaakson alueella alusonnettomuuden jälkeen

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää Suomenlahdella tapahtuvasta alusöljyvahingosta syntyvän öljyisen jätteen käsittelymahdollisuudet ja -kapasiteetit sekä loppusijoitusmahdollisuudet ja -kapasiteetit Kymenlaakson alueella. Lisäksi tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten öljy-vahinkojätettä voidaan esikäsitellä välivarastoinnin aikana puhdistuksen ja loppusijoituksen tehostamiseksi. Työn alussa on perehdytty öljyvahinkojätteen muodostumiseen vaikuttaviin tekijöihin: öljylaatujen ominaisuuksiin, öljyn kulkeutumiseen rannalle, ranta- ja saaristomaisemaan, öljyntorjuntaan jarantojen puhdistamiseen. Työssä on kuvattu öljyvahinkojätteen käsittelymenetelmien periaatteet ja menetelmien rajoituksia käsitellä öljyvahinkojätettä. Lisäksityö sisältää tutkimusta Suomen aluevesillä ja maailmalla tapahtuneista öljyonnettomuuksista. Onnettomuuksista on selvitetty erityisesti öljyvahinkojätteen määrä, koostumus ja käsittely. Työn loppuosassa on esitelty Kymenlaakson alueen laitosten mahdollisuuksia käsitellä öljyvahinkojätettä. Tietoa onkerätty haastattelemalla puhelimitse laitosten edustajia keväällä 2007. Alueella voidaan polttaa leijupedissä puhtaaseen polttoaineeseen sekoitettua öljyistä orgaanista ainesta ja puhdistustyössä käytettyjä varusteita arviolta 19 000 t/a, homogenoitua öljyistä orgaanista ainesta voidaan polttaa rumpu-uunissa arviolta 1200 t/a. Alueen polttokapasiteetti kasvaa, kun työn aikana rakenteilla oleva jätteenpolttolaitos valmistuu ja jätettä voidaan polttaa laitoksen arinalla. Lisäksi erityisesti öljyisiä maa-aineksia voidaan alipainekäsitellä, bitumistabiloida, kompostoida sekä pestä. Saadut tutkimustulokset ovat hyödynnettävissä erityisesti Kymenlaakson alueella. Tiedot käsittelymenetelmistä ja niiden rajoitteista ovat hyödynnettävissä valtakunnallisesti.

Evaluation of Routing solution for Next Generation Open Platform

Verkkoon kytkettävien laitteiden määrä on lisääntynyt viime vuosina, joka luo tarpeen reitittimille ja niiden ominaisuuksille. On muodostunut uusi tarve laitteille, jotka voivat yhdistää erilaisia verkkoja toisiinsa. Tällaisen reitittimen rakentamiseen tarvitaan vakaa alusta. Tällaisella alustalla luodaan mahdollisuus kuormittaa järjestelmää ilman suuria ongelmia. Tällainen alusta on Open Platform, joka on suunniteltu tällaisille toiminnoille ja yhdessä oikeanlaisen verkkoratkaisun kanssa sitä voidaan käyttää sille suunnitellussa ympäristössä. Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena on arvioida neljää eri reititysohjelmistoa ja kahta eri IP pinoa. Työssä käytetyt testit on suunniteltu arviointia varten ja niiden tarkoituksena on tuoda esille ohjelmistoissa esiintyvät viat ja ongelmat. Kaikki testit ovat samoja kaikille ohjelmille ja tehdään samassa ympäristössä. Testit analysoidaan niiden ajon jälkeen ja niiden tulosten avulla tehdään päätös mitä näistä ohjelmistoista tullaan käyttämään seuraavan sukupolven avoimella alustalla, joka tulee toimimaan Nokian Intelligent Service Nodessa. Tämä verkon laite toimii yhdyskäytävänäerilaisten verkkojen välillä.

The electricity distribution network in Saint-Petersburg area and benchmark between Saint-Petersburg and City of Stockholm related distribution companies' performance

The main objective of the Thesis is the description of the electricity distribution networks in Saint-Petersburg area and Stockholm as well. Main similarity and differences in the construction and technicalperformance are presented in the study. Present and future development and investment into the electricity distribution network of OJSC Lenenergo are viewed. The Thesis presents the overview of the power industry reform in Russia. The current state of the electricity distribution sector is described. The study views the participation of the foreign investor "Fortum Power and Heat Oy" inthe development and management of the OJSC Lenenergo. Benchmark comparison of the prices and tangible assets of the main electricity distribution companies in Saint-Petersburg and Stockholm areas is done.

Scenarios for electricity power sector development in the North-West of Russia

Focus of this thesisis made on development of electricity sector of Russian North-West. The objective was to determine the most likely scenarios for development of the most critical (western) part of Interregional Power System of North-West, from where the most part of Russian electricity exports to the countries of European Union take place. For this purpose all the involved sides were analyzed: generation, transmission system and electricity consumption in different regions of Russian North-West. The analysis was performed through investigation of existing generation andtransmission capacities and plans for their development to be performed by the generation and transmission companies operating in the region. Principles of Russian electricity sector restructuring and electricity market design are also discussed as well as factors that may influence on future electricity price in the region.