The determination of EONIA rate: The impact of the financial crisis and the effects of the changes in the monetary policy implementation framework

EONIA is a market based overnight interest rate, whose role as the starting point of the yield curve makes it critical from the perspective of the implementation of European Central Bank´s common monetary policy in the euro area. The financial crisis that started in 2007 had a large impact on the determination mechanism of this interest rate, which is considered as the central bank´s operational target. This thesis examines the monetary policy implementation framework of the European Central Bank and changes made to it. Furthermore, we discuss the development of the recent turmoil in the money market. EONIA rate is modelled by means of a regression equation using variables related to liquidity conditions, refinancing need, auction results and calendar effects. Conditional volatility is captured by an EGARCH model, and autocorrelation is taken into account by employing an autoregressive structure. The results highlight how the tensions in the initial stage of the market turmoil were successfully countered by ECB´s liquidity policy. The subsequent response of EONIA to liquidity conditions under the full allotment liquidity provision procedure adopted after the demise of Lehman Brothers is also established. A clear distinction in the behavior of the interest rate between the sub-periods was evident. In the light of the results obtained, some of the challenges posed by the exit-strategy implementation will be addressed.

The Impact of European Macroeconomic News Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to investigate how CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) stock markets are integrated with Europe as measured by the impact of euro area (EA) scheduled macroeconomic news announcements, which are related to macroeconomic indicators that are commonly used to indicate the direction of the economy. Macroeconomic announcements used in this study can be divided into four categories; (1) prices, (2) real economy, (3) money supply and (4) business climate and consumer confidence. The data set consists of daily market data from CIVETS and scheduled macroeconomic announcements from the EA for the years 2007-2012. The econometric model used in this research is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). Empirical results show diverse impacts of macroeconomic news releases and surprises for different categories of news supporting the perception of heterogeneity among CIVETS. The analyses revealed that in general EA macroeconomic news releases and surprises affect stock market volatility in CIVETS and only in some cases asset pricing. In conclusion, all CIVETS stock markets reacted to the incoming EA macroeconomic news suggesting market integration to some extent. Thus, EA should be considered as a possible risk factor when investing in CIVETS.

Idiosyncratic volatility around information release date

Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

Alhaisen volatiliteetin sekä korkean idiosynkraattisen riskin anomaliat Suomen osakemarkkinoilla institutionaalisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta

Alhaisen volatiliteetin anomalian mukaan sijoittajan on mahdollista saada korkeaa tuottoa alhaisella riskillä, mikä on sijoitusstrategina mielenkiintoinen, koska modernin rahoitusteorian mukaan korkeat tuotot saavutetaan vain riskiä kasvattamalla. Tässä tutkielmassa selvitettiin alhaisen volatiliteetin ja korkean idiosynkraattisen riskin anomalioiden olemassaoloa Suomen osakemarkkinoilla sekä institutionaalisen sijoittajan mahdollisuuksia hyödyntää tutkittuja anomalioita. Tutkimusaineisto large cap -osakkeilla vuosilta 2000-2013 osoittaa, että sijoittamalla alhaisen volatiliteetin osakkeisiin sijoittaja on pystynyt voittamaan absoluuttisella tuotolla mitattuna OMXH CAP-indeksin, muttei saavuttamaan riskikorjattuja ylituottoja. Alhaisen volatiliteetin osakkeiden suoriutumista on selitetty useilla tekijöillä kuten sijoittajien irrationaalisella käyttäytymisellä näiden suosiessa korkean volatiliteetin osakkeita painaen alas samalla näiden tuottopotentiaalia. Toiseksi, alhaisen volatiliteetin yrityksillä on vahvat fundamentit, joiden myötä liikevoitto sekä tulos pysyvät vahvoina, joka näkyy puolestaan hyvinä osaketuottoina. Lisäksi, institutionaaliselle sijoittajalle muodostuu esteitä sijoittaa vain alhaisen volatiliteetin osakkeisiin, mikä osaltaan estää anomalian pois pyyhkiytymisen. Idiosynkraattisen riskin anomaliaa ei voitu todentaa käytettäessä FF3-mallin residuaaleja. Anomaliaa tutkittiin historiallista sekä EGARCH-mallilla ennustettua idiosynkraattista riskiä käyttäen.