13 resultados para Early Warning System
em Doria (National Library of Finland DSpace Services) - National Library of Finland, Finland
Resumo:
The objective of the work has been to study why systems thinking should be used in combination with TQM, what are the main benefits of the integration and how it could best be done. The work analyzes the development of systems thinking and TQM with time and the main differences between them. The work defines prerequisites for adopting a systems approach and the organizational factors which embody the development of an efficient learning organization. The work proposes a model based on combination of an interactive management model and redesign to be used for application of systems approach with TQM in practice. The results of the work indicate that there are clear differences between systems thinking and TQM which justify their combination. Systems approach provides an additional complementary perspective to quality management. TQM is focused on optimizing operations at the operational level while interactive management and redesign of organization are focused on optimization operations at the conceptual level providing a holistic system for value generation. The empirical study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model in one case study company but its application is tenable and possible also beyond this particular company. System dynamic modeling and other systems based techniques like cognitive mapping are useful methods for increasing understanding and learning about the behavior of systems. The empirical study emphasizes the importance of using a proper early warning system.
Resumo:
Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is a straightforward, low cost method for fast and sensitive determination of organic and inorganic analytes. Originally this portable technique was applied to the determination of gas phase compounds in security and military use. Nowadays, IMS has received increasing attention in environmental and biological analysis, and in food quality determination. This thesis consists of literature review of suitable sample preparation and introduction methods for liquid matrices applicable to IMS from its early development stages to date. Thermal desorption, solid phase microextraction (SPME) and membrane extraction were examined in experimental investigations of hazardous aquatic pollutants and potential pollutants. Also the effect of different natural waters on the extraction efficiency was studied, and the utilised IMS data processing methods are discussed. Parameters such as extraction and desorption temperatures, extraction time, SPME fibre depth, SPME fibre type and salt addition were examined for the studied sample preparation and introduction methods. The observed critical parameters were extracting material and temperature. The extraction methods showed time and cost effectiveness because sampling could be performed in single step procedures and from different natural water matrices within a few minutes. Based on these experimental and theoretical studies, the most suitable method to test in the automated monitoring system is membrane extraction. In future an IMS based early warning system for monitoring water pollutants could ensure the safe supply of drinking water. IMS can also be utilised for monitoring natural waters in cases of environmental leakage or chemical accidents. When combined with sophisticated sample introduction methods, IMS possesses the potential for both on-line and on-site identification of analytes in different water matrices.
Resumo:
The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.
Resumo:
Since the times preceding the Second World War the subject of aircraft tracking has been a core interest to both military and non-military aviation. During subsequent years both technology and configuration of the radars allowed the users to deploy it in numerous fields, such as over-the-horizon radar, ballistic missile early warning systems or forward scatter fences. The latter one was arranged in a bistatic configuration. The bistatic radar has continuously re-emerged over the last eighty years for its intriguing capabilities and challenging configuration and formulation. The bistatic radar arrangement is used as the basis of all the analyzes presented in this work. The aircraft tracking method of VHF Doppler-only information, developed in the first part of this study, is solely based on Doppler frequency readings in relation to time instances of their appearance. The corresponding inverse problem is solved by utilising a multistatic radar scenario with two receivers and one transmitter and using their frequency readings as a base for aircraft trajectory estimation. The quality of the resulting trajectory is then compared with ground-truth information based on ADS-B data. The second part of the study deals with the developement of a method for instantaneous Doppler curve extraction from within a VHF time-frequency representation of the transmitted signal, with a three receivers and one transmitter configuration, based on a priori knowledge of the probability density function of the first order derivative of the Doppler shift, and on a system of blocks for identifying, classifying and predicting the Doppler signal. The extraction capabilities of this set-up are tested with a recorded TV signal and simulated synthetic spectrograms. Further analyzes are devoted to more comprehensive testing of the capabilities of the extraction method. Besides testing the method, the classification of aircraft is performed on the extracted Bistatic Radar Cross Section profiles and the correlation between them for different types of aircraft. In order to properly estimate the profiles, the ADS-B aircraft location information is adjusted based on extracted Doppler frequency and then used for Bistatic Radar Cross Section estimation. The classification is based on seven types of aircraft grouped by their size into three classes.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.
Resumo:
Suomen hallintotuomioistuinten mittaristotyöryhmä on laatinut oikeusasioiden hallintaa parantavan käsittelyn viivästymisestä varoittavan hälytysjärjestelmän sekä luokitellut asiat työmäärään perustuen. Luokille on laadittu työmäärää kuvaavat painokertoimet. Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia asiahallintajärjestelmään tehtyjen uudistusten mahdollistamia suorituskyvynmittauksen ja tavoiteasetannan kehittämismahdollisuuksia asiavirtauksen näkökulmasta. Tavoitteeseen pääsemiseksi selvitetään työmääräpainotuksen vaikutuksia hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvyn tunnuslukuihin sekä analysoidaan hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskykyä työmääräpainotuksella vuosina 2009-2012. Raportti sisältää tutkimuksen aihetta käsittelevän teoriakatsauksen ja kohdeorganisaatiota tutkivan empiirisen osuuden. Empiirinen osuus perustuu vahvasti kvantitatiiviseen tutkimukseen. Tutkimuksen tuloksena havaittiin, että työmääräpainotus kaventaa hallintooikeuksien välisiä suorituskykyeroja, mutta huomattavia eroja esiintyy myös työmääräpainotuksilla tarkasteltuna. Hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvyissä esiintyy eroja sekä oikeuksien välillä että oikeuksien sisällä eri vuosina. Analysoimalla nykyisiä suorituskyvyn mittauksen ja tavoiteasetannan käytäntöjä, voidaan esittää neljä kehittämisen painopistettä: 1) tavoiteasetannan tekeminen pidemmälle tähtäimelle, 2) mittauksen ja seurannan painopiste toteutuneesta ennakointiin, 3) suorituskyvyn tunnusluvut vastaamaan työmääräpainotusta ja 4) tavoitetasojen yhdenmukaistaminen. Näiden havaittujen kehittämispainopisteiden ja suorituskykyanalyysien pohjalta luotiin vaihtoehtoinen tapa mitata suorituskykyä ja asettaa tavoitteita. Kehittämisehdotusta havainnollistettiin erilaisten skenaarioiden avulla. Työ tarjoaa hyödyllistä tietoa hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvystä ja siitä millaisia mahdollisuuksia asianhallinnan uudistukset tuovat hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvyn kehittämiseen ja seurantaan.
Resumo:
The driving forces of technology and globalization continuously transform the business landscape in a way which undermines the existing strategies and innovations of organizations. The challenge for organizations is to establish such conditions where they are able to create new knowledge for innovative business ideas in interaction between other organizations and individuals. Innovation processes continuously need new external stimulations and seek new ideas, new information and knowledge locating more and more outside traditional organizational boundaries. In several studies, the early phases of the innovation process have been considered as the most critical ones. During these phases, the innovation process can emerge or conclude. External knowledge acquirement and utilization are noticed to be important at this stage of the innovation process giving information about the development of future markets and needs for new innovative businessideas. To make it possible, new methods and approaches to manage proactive knowledge creation and sharing activities are needed. In this study, knowledge creation and sharing in the early phases of the innovation process has been studied, and the understanding of knowledge management in the innovation process in an open and collaborative context advanced. Furthermore, the innovation management methods in this study are combined in a novel way to establish an open innovation process and tested in real-life cases. For these purposes two complementary and sequentially applied group work methods - the heuristic scenario method and the idea generation process - are examined by focusing the research on the support of the open knowledge creation and sharing process. The research objective of this thesis concerns two doctrines: the innovation management including the knowledge management, and the futures research concerning the scenario paradigm. This thesis also applies the group decision support system (GDSS) in the idea generation process to utilize the converged knowledge during the scenario process.
Resumo:
Western societies have been faced with the fact that overweight, impaired glucose regulation and elevated blood pressure are already prevalent in pediatric populations. This will inevitably mean an increase in later manifestations of cardio-metabolic diseases. The dilemma has been suggested to stem from fetal life and it is surmised that the early nutritional environment plays an important role in the process called programming. The aim of the present study was to characterize early nutritional determinants associating with cardio-metabolic risk factors in fetuses, infants and children. Further, the study was designated to establish whether dietary counseling initiated in early pregnancy can modify this cascade. Healthy mother-child pairs (n=256) participating in a dietary intervention study were followed from early pregnancy to childhood. The intervention included detailed dietary counseling by a nutritionist targeting saturated fat intake in excess of recommendations and fiber consumption below recommendations. Cardio-metabolic programming was studied by characterizing the offspring’s cardio-metabolic risk factors such as over-activation of the autonomic nervous system, elevated blood pressure and adverse metabolic status (e.g. serum high split proinsulin concentration). Fetal cardiac sympathovagal activation was measured during labor. Postnatally, children’s blood pressure was measured at six-month and four-year follow-up visits. Further, infants’ metabolic status was assessed by means of growth and serum biomarkers (32-33 split proinsulin, leptin and adiponectin) at the age of six months. This study proved that fetal cardiac sympathovagal activity was positively associated with maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index indicating adverse cardio-metabolic programming in the offspring. Further, a reduced risk of high split proinsulin in infancy and lower blood pressure in childhood were found in those offspring whose mothers’ weight gain and amount and type of fats in the diet during pregnancy were as recommended. Of note, maternal dietary counseling from early pregnancy onwards could ameliorate the offspring’s metabolic status by reducing the risk of high split proinsulin concentration, although it had no effect on the other cardio-metabolic markers in the offspring. At postnatal period breastfeeding proved to entail benefits in cardio-metabolic programming. Finally, the recommended dietary protein and total fat content in the child’s diet were important nutritional determinants reducing blood pressure at the age of four years. The intrauterine and immediate postnatal period comprise a window of opportunity for interventions aiming to reduce the risk of cardio-metabolic disorders and brings the prospect of achieving health benefits over one generation.
Resumo:
Pulsed electroacoustic (PEA) method is a commonly used non-destructive technique for investigating space charges. It has been developed since early 1980s. These days there is continuing interest for better understanding of the influence of space charge on the reliability of solid electrical insulation under high electric field. The PEA method is widely used for space charge profiling for its robust and relatively inexpensive features. The PEA technique relies on a voltage impulse used to temporarily disturb the space charge equilibrium in a dielectric. The acoustic wave is generated by charge movement in the sample and detected by means of a piezoelectric film. The spatial distribution of the space charge is contained within the detected signal. The principle of such a system is already well established, and several kinds of setups have been constructed for different measurement needs. This thesis presents the design of a PEA measurement system as a systems engineering project. The operating principle and some recent developments are summarised. The steps of electrical and mechanical design of the instrument are discussed. A common procedure for measuring space charges is explained and applied to verify the functionality of the system. The measurement system is provided as an additional basic research tool for the Corporate Research Centre of ABB (China) Ltd. It can be used to characterise flat samples with thickness of 0.2–0.5 mm under DC stress. The spatial resolution of the measurement is 20 μm.
Resumo:
Innovations diffuse at different speed among the members of a social system through various communication channels. The group of early adopters can be seen as the most influential reference group for majority of people to base their innovation adoption decisions on. Thus, the early adopters can often accelerate the diffusion of innovations. The purpose of this research is to discover means of diffusion for an innovative product in Finnish market through the influential early adopters in respect to the characteristics of the case product. The purpose of the research can be achieved through the following sub objectives: Who are the potential early adopters for the case product and why? How the potential early adopters of the case product should be communicated with? What would be the expectations, preferences, and experiences of the early adopters of the case product? The case product examined in this research is a new board game called Rock Science which is considered to be incremental innovation bringing board gaming and hard rock music together in a new way. The research was conducted in two different parts using both qualitative and quantitative research methods. This mixed method research began with expert interviews of six music industry experts. The information gathered from the interviews enabled researcher to compose the questionnaire for the quantitative part of the study. Internet survey that was sent out resulted with a sample of 97 responses from the targeted population. The key findings of the study suggest that (1) the potential early adopters for the case product are more likely to be young adults from the capital city area with great interest in rock music, (2) the early adopters can be reached effectively through credible online sources of information, and (3) the respondents overall product feedback is highly positive, except in the case of quality-price ratio of the product. This research indicates that more effective diffusion of Rock Science board game in Finland can be reached through (1) strategic alliances with music industry and media partnerships, (2) pricing adjustments, (3) use of supporting game formats, and (4) innovative use of various social media channels.
Resumo:
The main goal of this study is to create a seamless chain of actions and more detailed structure to the front end of innovation to be able to increase the front end performance and finally to influence the renewal of companies. The main goal is achieved through by the new concept of an integrated model of early activities of FEI leading to a discovery of new elements of opportunities and the identification of new business and growth areas. The procedure offers one possible solution to a dynamic strategy formation process in innovation development cycle. In this study the front end of innovation is positioned between a strategy reviews and a concept creation with needed procedures, tools, and frameworks. The starting point of the study is that the origins of innovation are not well enough understood. The study focuses attention on the early activities of FEI. These first activities are conceptualized in order to find out successful innovation initiatives and strategic renewal agendas. A seamless chain of activities resulting in faster and more precise identification of opportunities and growth areas available on markets and inside companies is needed. Three case studies were conducted in order to study company views on available theory doctrine and to identify the first practical experiences and procedures in the beginning of the front end of innovation. Successful innovation requires focus on renewal in both internal and external directions and they should be carefully balanced for best results. Instead of inside-out mode of actions the studied companies have a strong outside-in thinking mode and they mainly co-develop their innovation initiatives in close proximity with customers i.e. successful companies are an integral part of customers business and success. Companies have tailor-made innovation processes combined their way of working linked to their business goals, and priorities of actual needs of transformation. The result of this study is a new modular FEI platform which can be configured by companies against their actual business needs and drivers. This platform includes new elements of FEI documenting an architecture presenting how the system components work together. The system is a conceptual approach from theories of emergent strategy formation, opportunity identification and creation, interpretation-analysis-experimentation triad and the present FEI theories. The platform includes new features compared to actual models of FEI. It allows managers to better understand the importance of FEI in the whole innovation development stage and FEI as a phase and procedure to discover and implement emergent strategy. An adaptable company rethinks and redirects strategy proactively from time to time. Different parts of the business model are changed to remove identified obstacles for growth and renewal which gives them avenues to find right reforms for renewal.
Resumo:
The human immune system is constantly interacting with the surrounding stimuli and microorganisms. However, when directed against self or harmless antigens, these vital defense mechanisms can cause great damage. In addition, the understanding the underlying mechanism of several human diseases caused by aberrant immune cell functions, for instance type 1 diabetes and allergies, remains far from being complete. In this Ph.D. study these questions were addressed using genome-wide transcriptomic analyses. Asthma and allergies are characterized by a hyperactive response of the T helper 2 (Th2) immune cells. In this study, the target genes of the STAT6 transcription factor in naïve human T cells were identified with RNAi for the first time. STAT6 was shown to act as a central activator of the genes expression upon IL-4 signaling, with both direct and indirect effects on Th2 cell transcriptome. The core transcription factor network induced by IL-4 was identified from a kinetic analysis of the transcriptome. Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease influenced by both the genetic susceptibility of an individual and the disease-triggering environmental factors. To improve understanding of the autoimmune processes driving pathogenesis in the prediabetic phase in humans, a unique series of prospective whole-blood RNA samples collected from HLA-susceptible children in the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) study was studied. Changes in different timewindows of the pathogenesis process were identified, and especially the type 1 interferon response was activated early and throughout the preclinical T1D. The hygiene hypothesis states that allergic diseases, and lately also autoimmune diseases, could be prevented by infections and other microbial contacts acquired in early childhood, or even prenatally. To study the effects of the standard of hygiene on the development of neonatal immune system, cord blood samples from children born in Finland (high standard of living), Estonia (rapid economic growth) and Russian Karelia (low standard of living) were compared. Children born in Russian Karelia deviated from Finnish and Estonian children in many aspects of the neonatal immune system, which was developmentally more mature in Karelia, resembling that of older infants. The results of this thesis offer significant new information on the regulatory networks associated with immune-mediated diseases in human. The results will facilitate understanding and further research on the role of the identified target genes and mechanisms driving the allergic inflammation and type 1 diabetes, hopefully leading to a new era of drug development.
Resumo:
Sustainability in software system is still a new practice that most software developers and companies are trying to incorporate into their software development lifecycle and has been largely discussed in academia. Sustainability is a complex concept viewed from economic, environment and social dimensions with several definitions proposed making sometimes the concept of sustainability very fuzzy and difficult to apply and assess in software systems. This has hindered the adoption of sustainability in the software industry. A little research explores sustainability as a quality property of software products and services to answer questions such as; How to quantify sustainability as a quality construct in the same way as other quality attributes such as security, usability and reliability? How can it be applied to software systems? What are the measures and measurement scale of sustainability? The Goal of this research is to investigate the definitions, perceptions and measurement of sustainability from the quality perspective. Grounded in the general theory of software measurement, the aim is to develop a method that decomposes sustainability in factors, criteria and metrics. The Result is a method to quantify and access sustainability of software systems while incorporating management and users concern. Conclusion: The method will empower the ability of companies to easily adopt sustainability while facilitating its integration to the software development process and tools. It will also help companies to measure sustainability of their software products from economic, environmental, social, individual and technological dimension.