A Dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price

Summary

Dynamic Analysis Model of Spherical Roller Bearings with Defects

Rolling element bearings are essential components of rotating machinery. The spherical roller bearing (SRB) is one variant seeing increasing use, because it is self-aligning and can support high loads. It is becoming increasingly important to understand how the SRB responds dynamically under a variety of conditions. This doctoral dissertation introduces a computationally efficient, three-degree-of-freedom, SRB model that was developed to predict the transient dynamic behaviors of a rotor-SRB system. In the model, bearing forces and deflections were calculated as a function of contact deformation and bearing geometry parameters according to nonlinear Hertzian contact theory. The results reveal how some of the more important parameters; such as diametral clearance, the number of rollers, and osculation number; influence ultimate bearing performance. Distributed defects, such as the waviness of the inner and outer ring, and localized defects, such as inner and outer ring defects, are taken into consideration in the proposed model. Simulation results were verified with results obtained by applying the formula for the spherical roller bearing radial deflection and the commercial bearing analysis software. Following model verification, a numerical simulation was carried out successfully for a full rotor-bearing system to demonstrate the application of this newly developed SRB model in a typical real world analysis. Accuracy of the model was verified by comparing measured to predicted behaviors for equivalent systems.

Dynamic Model of a Small Once-Through Boiler

In this study, a model for the unsteady dynamic behaviour of a once-through counter flow boiler that uses an organic working fluid is presented. The boiler is a compact waste-heat boiler without a furnace and it has a preheater, a vaporiser and a superheater. The relative lengths of the boiler parts vary with the operating conditions since they are all parts of a single tube. The present research is a part of a study on the unsteady dynamics of an organic Rankine cycle power plant and it will be a part of a dynamic process model. The boiler model is presented using a selected example case that uses toluene as the process fluid and flue gas from natural gas combustion as the heat source. The dynamic behaviour of the boiler means transition from the steady initial state towards another steady state that corresponds to the changed process conditions. The solution method chosen was to find such a pressure of the process fluid that the mass of the process fluid in the boiler equals the mass calculated using the mass flows into and out of the boiler during a time step, using the finite difference method. A special method of fast calculation of the thermal properties has been used, because most of the calculation time is spent in calculating the fluid properties. The boiler was divided into elements. The values of the thermodynamic properties and mass flows were calculated in the nodes that connect the elements. Dynamic behaviour was limited to the process fluid and tube wall, and the heat source was regarded as to be steady. The elements that connect the preheater to thevaporiser and the vaporiser to the superheater were treated in a special way that takes into account a flexible change from one part to the other. The model consists of the calculation of the steady state initial distribution of the variables in the nodes, and the calculation of these nodal values in a dynamic state. The initial state of the boiler was received from a steady process model that isnot a part of the boiler model. The known boundary values that may vary during the dynamic calculation were the inlet temperature and mass flow rates of both the heat source and the process fluid. A brief examination of the oscillation around a steady state, the so-called Ledinegg instability, was done. This examination showed that the pressure drop in the boiler is a third degree polynomial of the mass flow rate, and the stability criterion is a second degree polynomial of the enthalpy change in the preheater. The numerical examination showed that oscillations did not exist in the example case. The dynamic boiler model was analysed for linear and step changes of the entering fluid temperatures and flow rates.The problem for verifying the correctness of the achieved results was that there was no possibility o compare them with measurements. This is why the only way was to determine whether the obtained results were intuitively reasonable and the results changed logically when the boundary conditions were changed. The numerical stability was checked in a test run in which there was no change in input values. The differences compared with the initial values were so small that the effects of numerical oscillations were negligible. The heat source side tests showed that the model gives results that are logical in the directions of the changes, and the order of magnitude of the timescale of changes is also as expected. The results of the tests on the process fluid side showed that the model gives reasonable results both on the temperature changes that cause small alterations in the process state and on mass flow rate changes causing very great alterations. The test runs showed that the dynamic model has no problems in calculating cases in which temperature of the entering heat source suddenly goes below that of the tube wall or the process fluid.

Dynamic Workload Parallelization and System Calibration on Single-Chip Cloud Computer

Many-core systems are emerging from the need of more computational power and power efficiency. However there are many issues which still revolve around the many-core systems. These systems need specialized software before they can be fully utilized and the hardware itself may differ from the conventional computational systems. To gain efficiency from many-core system, programs need to be parallelized. In many-core systems the cores are small and less powerful than cores used in traditional computing, so running a conventional program is not an efficient option. Also in Network-on-Chip based processors the network might get congested and the cores might work at different speeds. In this thesis is, a dynamic load balancing method is proposed and tested on Intel 48-core Single-Chip Cloud Computer by parallelizing a fault simulator. The maximum speedup is difficult to obtain due to severe bottlenecks in the system. In order to exploit all the available parallelism of the Single-Chip Cloud Computer, a runtime approach capable of dynamically balancing the load during the fault simulation process is used. The proposed dynamic fault simulation approach on the Single-Chip Cloud Computer shows up to 45X speedup compared to a serial fault simulation approach. Many-core systems can draw enormous amounts of power, and if this power is not controlled properly, the system might get damaged. One way to manage power is to set power budget for the system. But if this power is drawn by just few cores of the many, these few cores get extremely hot and might get damaged. Due to increase in power density multiple thermal sensors are deployed on the chip area to provide realtime temperature feedback for thermal management techniques. Thermal sensor accuracy is extremely prone to intra-die process variation and aging phenomena. These factors lead to a situation where thermal sensor values drift from the nominal values. This necessitates efficient calibration techniques to be applied before the sensor values are used. In addition, in modern many-core systems cores have support for dynamic voltage and frequency scaling. Thermal sensors located on cores are sensitive to the core's current voltage level, meaning that dedicated calibration is needed for each voltage level. In this thesis a general-purpose software-based auto-calibration approach is also proposed for thermal sensors to calibrate thermal sensors on different range of voltages.

Preparative ion exchange for salt solutions

Työssä tutkittiin moniarvoisten metalliformiaattien valmistusta ioninvaihto-menetelmällä. Kirjallisuustutkimus käsitteleetunnettuja alumiiniformiaatin ja rautaformiaatin valmistusmenetelmiä, kationinvaihtohartsien ominaisuuksia, ioninvaihtohartsien selektiivisyyttä ja alumiinin, raudan, magnesiumin ja sinkin vesikemiaa. Laboratoriokokeiden avulla tutkittiin sinkki-, magnesium-, rauta(II)- ja alumiiniformiaattien valmistusta ioninvaihdolla. Kokeet suoritettiin kolonnissa, joka oli pakattu makrohuokoisella tai geelimäisellä vahvalla kationin-vaihtohartsilla. Hartsi vaihdettiin natriummuodosta metallimuotoon metallikloridi- tai metallisulfaattiliuoksella.Metalli eluoitiin hartsista natriumformiaatilla. Formiaattien valmistus onnistui makrohuokoista vahvaa kationinvaihtohartsia käyttämällä. Rauta(II)formiaatin valmistus oli vaikeampaa kuin muiden formiaattien, koska rauta(II) hapettui osittain rauta(III):ksi valmistuksen aikana. Alumiiniformiaattia valmistettiin käyttäen sekä makrohuokoista että geelimäistä hartsia. Makrohuokoisen hartsin havaittiin soveltuvan geelimäistä hartsia paremmin alumiiniformiaatin valmistukseen. Kungeelimäistä hartsia käytettiin, noin 30 % alumiinista jäi kiinni hartsiin eikä siten eluoitunut. Ioninvaihdon selektiivisyyskertoimien saamiseksi suoritettiin tasapainokokeita. Selektiivisyyskertoimia käytettiin ioninvaihtokolonnin dynaamisessa simuloinnissa. Ioninvaihdon simuloiminen dynaamisella kolonnimallilla onnistui hyvin.

Tislauskolonnin varopurkauksen laskeminen dynaamisen simuloinnin avulla

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia tislauskolonnin dynamiikkaa ja dynaamista mallintamista simulointien avulla. Dynaamisen simulointimallin avulla selvitettiin pentaanin erotuskolonnin toimintaa poikkeus- ja häiriötilanteissa. Lisäksi pyrittiin arvioimaan työssä käytettyjen simulointiohjelmistojen soveltuvuutta tislauksen dynaamiseen simulointiin. Työn kirjallisuusosassa käsiteltiin tislauskolonnindynamiikan mallintamista matemaattisten mallien avulla sekä tislauskolonnimallin rakentamista simulointiohjelmistoon. Kirjallisuusosassa esiteltiin myös tislauskolonnin häiriötilanteita ja niiden aiheuttamia varopurkaustapauksia. Tämän lisäksi kirjallisuusosassa käytiin läpi tislauskolonnin varoventtiilien mitoittamisen perusteita. Työn soveltavassa osassa muodostettiin tislauskolonnille dynaaminen simulointimalli Aspen HYSYS Dynamics ja PROSimulator-simulointiohjelmistolla. Mallien avulla tarkasteltiin erilaisten häiriöiden ja poikkeustilanteiden vaikutusta kolonnin käyttäytymiseen ja varopurkaus-tapauksiin. Työssä arvioitiin myös ohjelmistojen soveltuvuutta tislauksen dynaamiseen simulointiin. Työssä saatujen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että dynaamisen simuloinnin avulla saadaan hyödyllistä tietoa tislauskolonnin toiminnasta häiriö- ja poikkeustilanteissa. Dynaamisen simuloinnin onnistuminen ja luotettavien tulosten saaminen edellyttää kuitenkin tarkasteltavan prosessin tuntemista ja ohjelmiston käytön hallintaa. Työssä käytetyn Aspen HYSYS Dynamics simulointiohjelmiston käytettävyydessä havaittiin puutteita ja ohjelmisto vaatii vielä kehitystyötä. Työssä käytetty PROSimulator-simulointiohjelmisto soveltui pienistä puutteista huolimatta hyvin tislauskolonnin häiriötilanteiden tutkimiseen.

Induction motor versus permanent magnet synchronous motor in motion control applications: a comparative study

High dynamic performance of an electric motor is a fundamental prerequisite in motion control applications, also known as servo drives. Recent developments in the field of microprocessors and power electronics have enabled faster and faster movements with an electric motor. In such a dynamically demanding application, the dimensioning of the motor differs substantially from the industrial motor design, where feasible characteristics of the motor are for example high efficiency, a high power factor, and a low price. In motion control instead, such characteristics as high overloading capability, high-speed operation, high torque density and low inertia are required. The thesis investigates how the dimensioning of a high-performance servomotor differs from the dimensioning of industrial motors. The two most common servomotor types are examined; an induction motor and apermanent magnet synchronous motor. The suitability of these two motor types indynamically demanding servo applications is assessed, and the design aspects that optimize the servo characteristics of the motors are analyzed. Operating characteristics of a high performance motor are studied, and some methods for improvements are suggested. The main focus is on the induction machine, which is frequently compared to the permanent magnet synchronous motor. A 4 kW prototype induction motor was designed and manufactured for the verification of the simulation results in the laboratory conditions. Also a dynamic simulation model for estimating the thermal behaviour of the induction motor in servo applications was constructed. The accuracy of the model was improved by coupling it with the electromagnetic motor model in order to take into account the variations in the motor electromagnetic characteristics due to the temperature rise.

Avainasiakkaan asiakaspalvelutarpeiden kartoitus ja menetelmät niiden tyydyttämiseksi

Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan teollisuuden avainasiakkaan tarpeiden kartoitusta yhden case-yrityksen näkökulmasta. Diplomityön tavoitteena on systemaattisesti kartoittaa avainasiakkaan palvelutarpeet ja luoda menetelmät niiden tyydyttämiseksi. Kirjallisuustutkimuksessa tarkastellaan tiedon synnyn, jalostamisen ja välittämisen merkitystä asiakaspalvelun ja asiakastarvekartoituksen näkökannalta. Tutkimuksen perusteella tunnistetaan modernin asiakaspalvelun ja avainasiakkaan tarvekartoituksen vaatimukset, merkitys sekä olennaiset menetelmät. Diplomityön empiirisessä osassa toteutetaan avainasiakkaan ja niihin vaikuttavien sidosryhmien kartoitus, haastattelut tarvetiedon löytämiseksi sekä luodaan menetelmät ja rakennetaan dynaaminen palvelumalli tarpeiden tyydyttämiseksi. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että avainasiakkaan tarpeita ei tunneta riittävän laajasti ja että systemaattisilla tarvekartoitusmenetelmillä voidaan identifioida ne, sekä ohjata palvelutyön menetelmien suunnittelua ja vyöryttää tarpeita edelleen arvoketjussa ratkaistavaksi. Tulosten perusteella suositellaan liiketoimintaprosessien uudistamista ja dynaamisen palvelumallin käyttöönottoa konsernissa.

Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

Chromatographic recovery of chemicals from acidic biomass hydrolysates

Lignocellulosic biomasses (e.g., wood and straws) are a potential renewable source for the production of a wide variety of chemicals that could be used to replace those currently produced by petrochemical industry. This would lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions and waste amounts, and to economical savings. There are many possible pathways available for the manufacturing of chemicals from lignocellulosic biomasses. One option is to hydrolyze the cellulose and hemicelluloses of these biomasses into monosaccharides using concentrated sulfuric acid as catalyst. This process is an efficient method for producing monosaccharides which are valuable platforn chemicals. Also other valuable products are formed in the hydrolysis. Unfortunately, the concentrated acid hydrolysis has been deemed unfeasible mainly due to high chemical consumption resulting from the need to remove sulfuric acid from the obtained hydrolysates prior to the downstream processing of the monosaccharides. Traditionally, this has been done by neutralization with lime. This, however, results in high chemical consumption. In addition, the by-products formed in the hydrolysis are not removed and may, thus, hinder the monosaccharide processing. In order to improve the feasibility of the concentrated acid hydrolysis, the chemical consumption should be decreased by recycling of sulfuric acid without neutralization. Furthermore, the monosaccharides and the other products formed in the hydrolysis should be recovered selectively for efficient downstream processing. The selective recovery of the hydrolysis by-products would have additional economical benefits on the process due to their high value. In this work, the use of chromatographic fractionation for the recycling of sulfuric acid and the selective recovery of the main components from the hydrolysates formed in the concentrated acid hydrolysis was investigated. Chromatographic fractionation based on the electrolyte exclusion with gel type strong acid cation exchange resins in acid (H+) form as a stationary phase was studied. A systematic experimental and model-based study regarding the separation task at hand was conducted. The phenomena affecting the separation were determined and their effects elucidated. Mathematical models that take accurately into account these phenomena were derived and used in the simulation of the fractionation process. The main components of the concentrated acid hydrolysates (sulfuric acid, monosaccharides, and acetic acid) were included into this model. Performance of the fractionation process was investigated experimentally and by simulations. Use of different process options was also studied. Sulfuric acid was found to have a significant co-operative effect on the sorption of the other components. This brings about interesting and beneficial effects in the column operations. It is especially beneficial for the separation of sulfuric acid and the monosaccharides. Two different approaches for the modelling of the sorption equilibria were investigated in this work: a simple empirical approach and a thermodynamically consistent approach (the Adsorbed Solution theory). Accurate modelling of the phenomena observed in this work was found to be possible using the simple empirical models. The use of the Adsorbed Solution theory is complicated by the nature of the theory and the complexity of the studied system. In addition to the sorption models, a dynamic column model that takes into account the volume changes of the gel type resins as changing resin bed porosity was also derived. Using the chromatography, all the main components of the hydrolysates can be recovered selectively, and the sulfuric acid consumption of the hydrolysis process can be lowered considerably. Investigation of the performance of the chromatographic fractionation showed that the highest separation efficiency in this separation task is obtained with a gel type resin with a high crosslinking degree (8 wt. %); especially when the hydrolysates contain high amounts of acetic acid. In addition, the concentrated acid hydrolysis should be done with as low sulfuric acid concentration as possible to obtain good separation performance. The column loading and flow rate also have large effects on the performance. In this work, it was demonstrated that when recycling of the fractions obtained in the chromatographic fractionation are recycled to preceding unit operations these unit operations should included in the performance evaluation of the fractionation. When this was done, the separation performance and the feasibility of the concentrated acid hydrolysis process were found to improve considerably. Use of multi-column chromatographic fractionation processes, the Japan Organo process and the Multi-Column Recycling Chromatography process, was also investigated. In the studied case, neither of these processes could compete with the single-column batch process in the productivity. However, due to internal recycling steps, the Multi-Column Recycling Chromatography was found to be superior to the batch process when the product yield and the eluent consumption were taken into account.

Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

Ionsonde Measurement Trend

Time series analysis has gone through different developmental stages before the current modern approaches. These can broadly categorized as the classical time series analysis and modern time series analysis approach. In the classical one, the basic target of the analysis is to describe the major behaviour of the series without necessarily dealing with the underlying structures. On the contrary, the modern approaches strives to summarize the behaviour of the series going through its underlying structure so that the series can be represented explicitly. In other words, such approach of time series analysis tries to study the series structurally. The components of the series that make up the observation such as the trend, seasonality, regression and disturbance terms are modelled explicitly before putting everything together in to a single state space model which give the natural interpretation of the series. The target of this diploma work is to practically apply the modern approach of time series analysis known as the state space approach, more specifically, the dynamic linear model, to make trend analysis over Ionosonde measurement data. The data is time series of the peak height of F2 layer symbolized by hmF2 which is the height of high electron density. In addition, the work also targets to investigate the connection between solar activity and the peak height of F2 layer. Based on the result found, the peak height of the F2 layer has shown a decrease during the observation period and also shows a nonlinear positive correlation with solar activity.

Validation of plant dynamic model by online and laboratory measurements – a tool to predict online COD loads out of production of mechanical printing papers

COD discharges out of processes have increased in line with elevating brightness demands for mechanical pulp and papers. The share of lignin-like substances in COD discharges is on average 75%. In this thesis, a plant dynamic model was created and validated as a means to predict COD loading and discharges out of a mill. The assays were carried out in one paper mill integrate producing mechanical printing papers. The objective in the modeling of plant dynamics was to predict day averages of COD load and discharges out of mills. This means that online data, like 1) the level of large storage towers of pulp and white water 2) pulp dosages, 3) production rates and 4) internal white water flows and discharges were used to create transients into the balances of solids and white water, referred to as “plant dynamics”. A conversion coefficient was verified between TOC and COD. The conversion coefficient was used for predicting the flows from TOC to COD to the waste water treatment plant. The COD load was modeled with similar uncertainty as in reference TOC sampling. The water balance of waste water treatment was validated by the reference concentration of COD. The difference of COD predictions against references was within the same deviation of TOC-predictions. The modeled yield losses and retention values of TOC in pulping and bleaching processes and the modeled fixing of colloidal TOC to solids between the pulping plant and the aeration basin in the waste water treatment plant were similar to references presented in literature. The valid water balances of the waste water treatment plant and the reduction model of lignin-like substances produced a valid prediction of COD discharges out of the mill. A 30% increase in the release of lignin-like substances in the form of production problems was observed in pulping and bleaching processes. The same increase was observed in COD discharges out of waste water treatment. In the prediction of annual COD discharge, it was noticed that the reduction of lignin has a wide deviation from year to year and from one mill to another. This made it difficult to compare the parameters of COD discharges validated in plant dynamic simulation with another mill producing mechanical printing papers. However, a trend of moving from unbleached towards high-brightness TMP in COD discharges was valid.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.

Direct-on-line axial flux permanent magnet synchronous generator static and dynamic performance

In distributed energy production, permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG) are often connected to the grid via frequency converters, such as voltage source line converters. The price of the converter may constitute a large part of the costs of a generating set. Some of the permanent magnet synchronous generators with converters and traditional separately excited synchronous generators couldbe replaced by direct-on-line (DOL) non-controlled PMSGs. Small directly networkconnected generators are likely to have large markets in the area of distributed electric energy generation. Typical prime movers could be windmills, watermills and internal combustion engines. DOL PMSGs could also be applied in island networks, such as ships and oil platforms. Also various back-up power generating systems could be carried out with DOL PMSGs. The benefits would be a lower priceof the generating set and the robustness and easy use of the system. The performance of DOL PMSGs is analyzed. The electricity distribution companies have regulations that constrain the design of the generators being connected to the grid. The general guidelines and recommendations are applied in the analysis. By analyzing the results produced by the simulation model for the permanent magnet machine, the guidelines for efficient damper winding parameters for DOL PMSGs are presented. The simulation model is used to simulate grid connections and load transients. The damper winding parameters are calculated by the finite element method (FEM) and determined from experimental measurements. Three-dimensional finite element analysis (3D FEA) is carried out. The results from the simulation model and 3D FEA are compared with practical measurements from two prototype axial flux permanent magnet generators provided with damper windings. The dimensioning of the damper winding parameters is case specific. The damper winding should be dimensioned based on the moment of inertia of the generating set. It is shown that the damper winding has optimal values to reach synchronous operation in the shortest period of time after transient operation. With optimal dimensioning, interferenceon the grid is minimized.