Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Skill Development in Music Reading. The Eye-Movement Approach

This dissertation examined skill development in music reading by focusing on the visual processing of music notation in different music-reading tasks. Each of the three experiments of this dissertation addressed one of the three types of music reading: (i) sight-reading, i.e. reading and performing completely unknown music, (ii) rehearsed reading, during which the performer is already familiar with the music being played, and (iii) silent reading with no performance requirements. The use of the eye-tracking methodology allowed the recording of the readers’ eye movements from the time of music reading with extreme precision. Due to the lack of coherence in the smallish amount of prior studies on eye movements in music reading, the dissertation also had a heavy methodological emphasis. The present dissertation thus aimed to promote two major issues: (1) it investigated the eye-movement indicators of skill and skill development in sight-reading, rehearsed reading and silent reading, and (2) developed and tested suitable methods that can be used by future studies on the topic. Experiment I focused on the eye-movement behaviour of adults during their first steps of learning to read music notation. The longitudinal experiment spanned a nine-month long music-training period, during which 49 participants (university students taking part in a compulsory music course) sight-read and performed a series of simple melodies in three measurement sessions. Participants with no musical background were entitled as “novices”, whereas “amateurs” had had musical training prior to the experiment. The main issue of interest was the changes in the novices’ eye movements and performances across the measurements while the amateurs offered a point of reference for the assessment of the novices’ development. The experiment showed that the novices tended to sight-read in a more stepwise fashion than the amateurs, the latter group manifesting more back-and-forth eye movements. The novices’ skill development was reflected by the faster identification of note symbols involved in larger melodic intervals. Across the measurements, the novices also began to show sensitivity to the melodies’ metrical structure, which the amateurs demonstrated from the very beginning. The stimulus melodies consisted of quarter notes, making the effects of meter and larger melodic intervals distinguishable from effects caused by, say, different rhythmic patterns. Experiment II explored the eye movements of 40 experienced musicians (music education students and music performance students) during temporally controlled rehearsed reading. This cross-sectional experiment focused on the eye-movement effects of one-bar-long melodic alterations placed within a familiar melody. The synchronizing of the performance and eye-movement recordings enabled the investigation of the eye-hand span, i.e., the temporal gap between a performed note and the point of gaze. The eye-hand span was typically found to remain around one second. Music performance students demonstrated increased professing efficiency by their shorter average fixation durations as well as in the two examined eye-hand span measures: these participants used larger eye-hand spans more frequently and inspected more of the musical score during the performance of one metrical beat than students of music education. Although all participants produced performances almost indistinguishable in terms of their auditory characteristics, the altered bars indeed affected the reading of the score: the general effects of expertise in terms of the two eye- hand span measures, demonstrated by the music performance students, disappeared in the face of the melodic alterations. Experiment III was a longitudinal experiment designed to examine the differences between adult novice and amateur musicians’ silent reading of music notation, as well as the changes the 49 participants manifested during a nine-month long music course. From a methodological perspective, an opening to research on eye movements in music reading was the inclusion of a verbal protocol in the research design: after viewing the musical image, the readers were asked to describe what they had seen. A two-way categorization for verbal descriptions was developed in order to assess the quality of extracted musical information. More extensive musical background was related to shorter average fixation duration, more linear scanning of the musical image, and more sophisticated verbal descriptions of the music in question. No apparent effects of skill development were observed for the novice music readers alone, but all participants improved their verbal descriptions towards the last measurement. Apart from the background-related differences between groups of participants, combining verbal and eye-movement data in a cluster analysis identified three styles of silent reading. The finding demonstrated individual differences in how the freely defined silent-reading task was approached. This dissertation is among the first presentations of a series of experiments systematically addressing the visual processing of music notation in various types of music-reading tasks and focusing especially on the eye-movement indicators of developing music-reading skill. Overall, the experiments demonstrate that the music-reading processes are affected not only by “top-down” factors, such as musical background, but also by the “bottom-up” effects of specific features of music notation, such as pitch heights, metrical division, rhythmic patterns and unexpected melodic events. From a methodological perspective, the experiments emphasize the importance of systematic stimulus design, temporal control during performance tasks, and the development of complementary methods, for easing the interpretation of the eye-movement data. To conclude, this dissertation suggests that advances in comprehending the cognitive aspects of music reading, the nature of expertise in this musical task, and the development of educational tools can be attained through the systematic application of the eye-tracking methodology also in this specific domain.

University students’ regulation of learning and text processing – examples from medical and teacher education

The general aim of the thesis was to study university students’ learning from the perspective of regulation of learning and text processing. The data were collected from the two academic disciplines of medical and teacher education, which share the features of highly scheduled study, a multidisciplinary character, a complex relationship between theory and practice and a professional nature. Contemporary information society poses new challenges for learning, as it is not possible to learn all the information needed in a profession during a study programme. Therefore, it is increasingly important to learn how to think and learn independently, how to recognise gaps in and update one’s knowledge and how to deal with the huge amount of constantly changing information. In other words, it is critical to regulate one’s learning and to process text effectively. The thesis comprises five sub-studies that employed cross-sectional, longitudinal and experimental designs and multiple methods, from surveys to eye tracking. Study I examined the connections between students’ study orientations and the ways they regulate their learning. In total, 410 second-, fourth- and sixth-year medical students from two Finnish medical schools participated in the study by completing a questionnaire measuring both general study orientations and regulation strategies. The students were generally deeply oriented towards their studies. However, they regulated their studying externally. Several interesting and theoretically reasonable connections between the variables were found. For instance, self-regulation was positively correlated with deep orientation and achievement orientation and was negatively correlated with non-commitment. However, external regulation was likewise positively correlated with deep orientation and achievement orientation but also with surface orientation and systematic orientation. It is argued that external regulation might function as an effective coping strategy in the cognitively loaded medical curriculum. Study II focused on medical students’ regulation of learning and their conceptions of the learning environment in an innovative medical course where traditional lectures were combined wth problem-based learning (PBL) group work. First-year medical and dental students (N = 153) completed a questionnaire assessing their regulation strategies of learning and views about the PBL group work. The results indicated that external regulation and self-regulation of the learning content were the most typical regulation strategies among the participants. In line with previous studies, self-regulation wasconnected with study success. Strictly organised PBL sessions were not considered as useful as lectures, although the students’ views of the teacher/tutor and the group were mainly positive. Therefore, developers of teaching methods are challenged to think of new solutions that facilitate reflection of one’s learning and that improve the development of self-regulation. In Study III, a person-centred approach to studying regulation strategies was employed, in contrast to the traditional variable-centred approach used in Study I and Study II. The aim of Study III was to identify different regulation strategy profiles among medical students (N = 162) across time and to examine to what extent these profiles predict study success in preclinical studies. Four regulation strategy profiles were identified, and connections with study success were found. Students with the lowest self-regulation and with an increasing lack of regulation performed worse than the other groups. As the person-centred approach enables us to individualise students with diverse regulation patterns, it could be used in supporting student learning and in facilitating the early diagnosis of learning difficulties. In Study IV, 91 student teachers participated in a pre-test/post-test design where they answered open-ended questions about a complex science concept both before and after reading either a traditional, expository science text or a refutational text that prompted the reader to change his/her beliefs according to scientific beliefs about the phenomenon. The student teachers completed a questionnaire concerning their regulation and processing strategies. The results showed that the students’ understanding improved after text reading intervention and that refutational text promoted understanding better than the traditional text. Additionally, regulation and processing strategies were found to be connected with understanding the science phenomenon. A weak trend showed that weaker learners would benefit more from the refutational text. It seems that learners with effective learning strategies are able to pick out the relevant content regardless of the text type, whereas weaker learners might benefit from refutational parts that contrast the most typical misconceptions with scientific views. The purpose of Study V was to use eye tracking to determine how third-year medical studets (n = 39) and internal medicine residents (n = 13) read and solve patient case texts. The results revealed differences between medical students and residents in processing patient case texts; compared to the students, the residents were more accurate in their diagnoses and processed the texts significantly faster and with a lower number of fixations. Different reading patterns were also found. The observed differences between medical students and residents in processing patient case texts could be used in medical education to model expert reasoning and to teach how a good medical text should be constructed. The main findings of the thesis indicate that even among very selected student populations, such as high-achieving medical students or student teachers, there seems to be a lot of variation in regulation strategies of learning and text processing. As these learning strategies are related to successful studying, students enter educational programmes with rather different chances of managing and achieving success. Further, the ways of engaging in learning seldom centre on a single strategy or approach; rather, students seem to combine several strategies to a certain degree. Sometimes, it can be a matter of perspective of which way of learning can be considered best; therefore, the reality of studying in higher education is often more complicated than the simplistic view of self-regulation as a good quality and external regulation as a harmful quality. The beginning of university studies may be stressful for many, as the gap between high school and university studies is huge and those strategies that were adequate during high school might not work as well in higher education. Therefore, it is important to map students’ learning strategies and to encourage them to engage in using high-quality learning strategies from the beginning. Instead of separate courses on learning skills, the integration of these skills into course contents should be considered. Furthermore, learning complex scientific phenomena could be facilitated by paying attention to high-quality learning materials and texts and other support from the learning environment also in the university. Eye tracking seems to have great potential in evaluating performance and growing diagnostic expertise in text processing, although more research using texts as stimulus is needed. Both medical and teacher education programmes and the professions themselves are challenging in terms of their multidisciplinary nature and increasing amounts of information and therefore require good lifelong learning skills during the study period and later in work life.

Local and Regional Scale Determinants of Biodiversity Patterns in Boreal Agricultural Landscapes

This thesis examines the local and regional scale determinants of biodiversity patterns using existing species and environmental data. The research focuses on agricultural environments that have experienced rapid declines of biodiversity during past decades. Existing digital databases provide vast opportunities for habitat mapping, predictive mapping of species occurrences and richness and understanding the speciesenvironment relationships. The applicability of these databases depends on the required accuracy and quality of the data needed to answer the landscape ecological and biogeographical questions in hand. Patterns of biodiversity arise from confounded effects of different factors, such as climate, land cover and geographical location. Complementary statistical approaches that can show the relative effects of different factors are needed in biodiversity analyses in addition to classical multivariate models. Better understanding of the key factors underlying the variation in diversity requires the analyses of multiple taxonomic groups from different perspectives, such as richness, occurrence, threat status and population trends. The geographical coincidence of species richness of different taxonomic groups can be rather limited. This implies that multiple geographical regions should be taken into account in order to preserve various groups of species. Boreal agricultural biodiversity and in particular, distribution and richness of threatened species is strongly associated with various grasslands. Further, heterogeneous agricultural landscapes characterized by moderate field size, forest patches and non-crop agricultural habitats enhance the biodiversity of rural environments. From the landscape ecological perspective, the major threats to Finnish agricultural biodiversity are the decline of connected grassland habitat networks, and general homogenization of landscape structure resulting from both intensification and marginalization of agriculture. The maintenance of key habitats, such as meadows and pastures is an essential task in conservation of agricultural biodiversity. Furthermore, a larger landscape context should be incorporated in conservation planning and decision making processes in order to respond to the needs of different species and to maintain heterogeneous rural landscapes and viable agricultural diversity in the future.

Measuring irregularities and surface defects from printed patterns

Quality inspection and assurance is a veryimportant step when today's products are sold to markets. As products are produced in vast quantities, the interest to automate quality inspection tasks has increased correspondingly. Quality inspection tasks usuallyrequire the detection of deficiencies, defined as irregularities in this thesis. Objects containing regular patterns appear quite frequently on certain industries and science, e.g. half-tone raster patterns in the printing industry, crystal lattice structures in solid state physics and solder joints and components in the electronics industry. In this thesis, the problem of regular patterns and irregularities is described in analytical form and three different detection methods are proposed. All the methods are based on characteristics of Fourier transform to represent regular information compactly. Fourier transform enables the separation of regular and irregular parts of an image but the three methods presented are shown to differ in generality and computational complexity. Need to detect fine and sparse details is common in quality inspection tasks, e.g., locating smallfractures in components in the electronics industry or detecting tearing from paper samples in the printing industry. In this thesis, a general definition of such details is given by defining sufficient statistical properties in the histogram domain. The analytical definition allowsa quantitative comparison of methods designed for detail detection. Based on the definition, the utilisation of existing thresholding methodsis shown to be well motivated. Comparison of thresholding methods shows that minimum error thresholding outperforms other standard methods. The results are successfully applied to a paper printability and runnability inspection setup. Missing dots from a repeating raster pattern are detected from Heliotest strips and small surface defects from IGT picking papers.

Process intensification: From optimised flow patterns to microprocess technology

This thesis is focused on process intensification. Several significant problems and applications of this theme are covered. Process intensification is nowadays one of the most popular trends in chemical engineering and attempts have been made to develop a general, systematic methodology for intensification. This seems, however, to be very difficult, because intensified processes are often based on creativity and novel ideas. Monolith reactors and microreactors are successful examples of process intensification. They are usually multichannel devices in which a proper feed technique is important for creating even fluid distribution into the channels. Two different feed techniques were tested for monoliths. In the first technique a shower method was implemented by means of perforated plates. The second technique was a dispersion method using static mixers. Both techniques offered stable operation and uniform fluid distribution. The dispersion method enabled a wider operational range in terms of liquid superficial velocity. Using dispersion method, a volumetric gas-liquid mass transfer coefficient of 2 s-1 was reached. Flow patterns play a significant role in terms of the mixing performance of micromixers. Although the geometry of a T-mixer is simple, channel configurations and dimensions had a clear effect on mixing efficiency. The flow in the microchannel was laminar, but the formation of vortices promoted mixing in micro T-mixers. The generation of vortices was dependent on the channel dimensions, configurations and flow rate. Microreactors offer a high ratio of surface area to volume. Surface forces and interactions between fluids and surfaces are, therefore, often dominant factors. In certain cases, the interactions can be effectively utilised. Different wetting properties of solid materials (PTFE and stainless steel) were applied in the separation of immiscible liquid phases. A micro-scale plate coalescer with hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces was used for the continuous separation of organic and aqueous phases. Complete phase separation occurred in less than 20 seconds, whereas the separation time by settling exceeded 30 min. Fluid flows can be also intensified in suitable conditions. By adding certain additives into turbulent fluid flow, it was possible to reduce friction (drag) by 40 %. Drag reduction decreases frictional pressure drop in pipelines which leads to remarkable energy savings and decreases the size or number of pumping facilities required, e.g., in oil transport pipes. Process intensification enables operation often under more optimal conditions. The consequent cost savings from reduced use of raw materials and reduced waste lead to greater economic benefits in processing.

Market entry patterns of Finnish SMEs entering China

In 2011 China became the world’s second largest economy overtaking Japan. With its rapidly growing middle class buying diverse goods from consumption products to sophisticated technology and luxury products, it is also the fastest growing export market in the world. The purpose of this study is to examine what types of market entry modes Finnish SMEs use in China, which factors affect on their decisions and whether they have switched or combined the strategies after entering China. The goal is to understand the relevance of the entry mode choice related to the internationalization process and to evaluate how well it suits the Chinese business environment. The empirical part of the study is a semi structured qualitative analysis of six case companies that represent different industry fields. The cases were selected based on the recent literature about the Finnish industry fields China is interested in to gain knowledge and expertise from. Companies included in the study are an architect office, two pharmaceutical development companies, an ICT company, a plastic mechanics company and a clean tech company. The results of this study indicated that the market entry patterns of Finnish SMEs in China differ from each other based on the factors related to company’s background, mode concerns and Chinese market influences.

Opportunities, constraints and constrained opportunities – A study on mothers’ working time patterns in 22 European countries

The aim of this study was to analyse mothers’ working time patterns across 22 European countries. The focus was on three questions: how much mothers prefer to work, how much they actually work, and to what degree their preferred and actual working times are (in)consistent with each other. The focus was on cross-national differences in mothers’ working time patterns, comparison of mothers’ working times to that of childless women and fathers, as well as on individual- and country-level factors that explain the variation between them. In the theoretical background, the departure point was an integrative theoretical approach where the assumption is that there are various kinds of explanations for the differences in mothers’ working time patterns – namely structural, cultural and institutional – , and that these factors are laid in two levels: individual- and country-levels. Data were extracted from the European Social Survey (ESS) 2010 / 2011. The results showed that mothers’ working time patterns, both preferred and actual working times, varied across European countries. Four clusters were formed to illustrate the differences. In the full-time pattern, full-time work was the most important form of work, leaving all other working time forms marginal. The full-time pattern was perceived in terms of preferred working times in Bulgaria and Portugal. In polarised pattern countries, fulltime work was also important, but it was accompanied by a large share of mothers not working at all. In the case of preferred working times, many Eastern and Southern European countries followed it whereas in terms of actual working times it included all Eastern and Southern European countries as well as Finland. The combination pattern was characterised by the importance of long part-time hours and full-time work. It was the preferred working time pattern in the Nordic countries, France, Slovenia, and Spain, but Belgium, Denmark, France, Norway, and Sweden followed it in terms of actual working times. The fourth cluster that described mothers’ working times was called the part-time pattern, and it was illustrated by the prevalence of short and long part-time work. In the case of preferred working times, it was followed in Belgium, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Besides Belgium, the part-time pattern was followed in the same countries in terms of actual working times. The consistency between preferred and actual working times was rather strong in a majority of countries. However, six countries fell under different working time patterns when preferred and actual working times were compared. Comparison of working mothers’, childless women’s, and fathers’ working times showed that differences between these groups were surprisingly small. It was only in part-time pattern countries that working mothers worked significantly shorter hours than working childless women and fathers. Results therefore revealed that when mothers’ working times are under study, an important question regarding the population examined is whether it consists of all mothers or only working mothers. Results moreover supported the use of the integrative theoretical approach when studying mothers’ working time patterns. Results indicate that mothers’ working time patterns in all countries are shaped by various opportunities and constraints, which are comprised of structural, cultural, institutional, and individual-level factors.

Local Binary Patterns in Focal-Plane Processing. Analysis and Applications

Feature extraction is the part of pattern recognition, where the sensor data is transformed into a more suitable form for the machine to interpret. The purpose of this step is also to reduce the amount of information passed to the next stages of the system, and to preserve the essential information in the view of discriminating the data into different classes. For instance, in the case of image analysis the actual image intensities are vulnerable to various environmental effects, such as lighting changes and the feature extraction can be used as means for detecting features, which are invariant to certain types of illumination changes. Finally, classification tries to make decisions based on the previously transformed data. The main focus of this thesis is on developing new methods for the embedded feature extraction based on local non-parametric image descriptors. Also, feature analysis is carried out for the selected image features. Low-level Local Binary Pattern (LBP) based features are in a main role in the analysis. In the embedded domain, the pattern recognition system must usually meet strict performance constraints, such as high speed, compact size and low power consumption. The characteristics of the final system can be seen as a trade-off between these metrics, which is largely affected by the decisions made during the implementation phase. The implementation alternatives of the LBP based feature extraction are explored in the embedded domain in the context of focal-plane vision processors. In particular, the thesis demonstrates the LBP extraction with MIPA4k massively parallel focal-plane processor IC. Also higher level processing is incorporated to this framework, by means of a framework for implementing a single chip face recognition system. Furthermore, a new method for determining optical flow based on LBPs, designed in particular to the embedded domain is presented. Inspired by some of the principles observed through the feature analysis of the Local Binary Patterns, an extension to the well known non-parametric rank transform is proposed, and its performance is evaluated in face recognition experiments with a standard dataset. Finally, an a priori model where the LBPs are seen as combinations of n-tuples is also presented

Static waves in corporate space : characterizing oscillating trading patterns in New York stock exchange

Various researches in the field of econophysics has shown that fluid flow have analogous phenomena in financial market behavior, the typical parallelism being delivered between energy in fluids and information on markets. However, the geometry of the manifold on which market dynamics act out their dynamics (corporate space) is not yet known. In this thesis, utilizing a Seven year time series of prices of stocks used to compute S&P500 index on the New York Stock Exchange, we have created local chart to the corporate space with the goal of finding standing waves and other soliton like patterns in the behavior of stock price deviations from the S&P500 index. By first calculating the correlation matrix of normalized stock price deviations from the S&P500 index, we have performed a local singular value decomposition over a set of four different time windows as guides to the nature of patterns that may emerge. I turns out that in almost all cases, each singular vector is essentially determined by relatively small set of companies with big positive or negative weights on that singular vector. Over particular time windows, sometimes these weights are strongly correlated with at least one industrial sector and certain sectors are more prone to fast dynamics whereas others have longer standing waves.

Diel patterns and tissue-specificity of environmental responses in fish

Humans are profoundly changing aquatic environments through climate change and the release of nutrients and chemicals. To understand the effects of these changes on natural populations, knowledge on individuals’ environmental responses is needed. At the molecular level, the environmental responses are partly mediated by chances in messenger RNA and protein levels. In this thesis I study messenger RNA and protein responses to an assortment of environmental stressors in fish. As daily (diel) rhythms are known to be ubiquitous in different tissues, I particularly focus on diel patterns in the responses. The studied species are the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) and the Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.), both of which have circumpolar distribution in the Northern hemisphere. In the first two studies, three-spined sticklebacks were exposed to both the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac and low-oxygen conditions (hypoxia), and their responses measured at separate time points in the liver and gills. The results show how the seemingly unrelated environmental stressors, hypoxia and anti-inflammatory drugs, can have harmful combined effects that differ from the effects of each stressor alone. Moreover, both stressors disturbed natural diel patterns in gene expression. In the third study, I studied the responses of three-spined sticklebacks to two test chemicals: one used in hormonal medicine (17α-ethinyl-oestradiol) and one used as a plasticizer and solvent chemical (di-n-butyl phthalate). The results suggest that the phthalate can affect genes related to spermatogenesis in fish testes, while estrogen-mimicking compounds can lead to numerous disturbances in the endocrine system. In the final study, the temperature-dependence of diel rhythms in messenger RNA levels were evaluated in the liver tissue of the Arctic char, a cold-adapted salmonid. The results show that cold acclimation repressed diel rhythms in gene expression compared to warm-acclimated fish, in which the expression of hundreds of genes was rhythmic, suggesting the circadian clock of the Arctic fish species can be sensitive to temperature. Overall, the results of the thesis indicate that fishes’ responses to abiotic factors interact with their diel rhythms, and more studies on the consequences of these interactions are needed to comprehensively understand human impacts on ecosystems.