Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

CT and PET/CT Hybrid Imaging of Coronary Artery Disease

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a chronic process that evolves over decades and may culminate in myocardial infarction (MI). While invasive coronary angiography (ICA) is still considered the gold standard of imaging CAD, non-invasive assessment of both the vascular anatomy and myocardial perfusion has become an intriguing alternative. In particular, computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) form an attractive combination for such studies. Increased radiation dose is, however, a concern. Our aim in the current thesis was to test novel CT and PET techniques alone and in hybrid setting in the detection and assessment of CAD in clinical patients. Along with diagnostic accuracy, methods for the reduction of the radiation dose was an important target. The study investigating the coronary arteries of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) showed that CAD may be an important etiology of AF because a high prevalence of CAD was demonstrated within AF patients. In patients with suspected CAD, we demonstrated that a sequential, prospectively ECG-triggered CT technique was applicable to nearly 9/10 clinical patients and the radiation dose was over 60% lower than with spiral CT. To detect the functional significance of obstructive CAD, a novel software for perfusion quantification, CarimasTM, showed high reproducibility with 15O-labelled water in PET, supporting feasibility and good clinical accuracy. In a larger cohort of 107 patients with moderate 30-70% pre-test probability of CAD, hybrid PET/CT was shown to be a powerful diagnostic method in the assessment of CAD with diagnostic accuracy comparable to that of invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) measurements. A hybrid study may be performed with a reasonable radiation dose in a vast majority of the cases, improving the performance of stand-alone PET and CT angiography, particularly when the absolute quantification of the perfusion is employed. These results can be applied into clinical practice and will be useful for daily clinical diagnosis of CAD.

Relationship between Daily Habits, Oral Microbiota and Caries with Special Reference to Xylitol

Caries is a plaque-associated multifactorial chronic disease. Oral hygiene habits, sugar, and oral micobiota interactions are important for caries to occur. Xylitol has been shown to reduce caries mainly due to its effects on mutans streptococci (MS). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship of daily oral health habits and bacterial level on the caries occurrence and to study the effect of xylitol on the composition of oral microflora. A total of 192, 10-12 years old, male school children had been screened for salivary MS. Healthy subjects with high MS counts participated in two parallel double-blinded, randomised, controlled trials. In the first 5-week trial, subjects were assigned into xylitol (n=35) and sorbitol gum (n=38) groups. At baseline, children were examined using International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) criteria and interviewed for oral health habits. In the second 4-week trial, subjects were assigned into xylitol (n=25) and saccharine mouthrinse (n=25) groups. In the end of both interventions, saliva samples were collected. The samples were analysed for changes in MS counts and changes in the composition of the oral microbiota assessed by the Human Oral Microbe Identification Microarray (HOMIM). Relationships between daily habits, bacterial levels and caries were evaluated. Daily use of sweets and soft drinks were the habits significantly associated with caries severity measured by ICDAS Caries Index (CI), while toothbrushing was the only habit associated with the low caries severity. Abiotrophia defectiva and Actinomyces meyeri/ A. odontolyticus were significantly higher in caries-affected children while Shuttleworthia satelles was significantly higher in caries-free children. Xylitol showed significant reduction in salivary levels of MS in both trials. No significant effects on other members of the microbiota were found when evaluated by HOMIM. In conclusion, other members of oral microbiota than MS may be associated with caries occurrence or absence. The use of xylitol had significant effect on MS with no effects on the other members of the salivary microbiota.

Improvements in the Assessment of Bacterial Viability and Killing

It is axiomatic that our planet is extensively inhabited by diverse micro-organisms such as bacteria, yet the absolute diversity of different bacterial species is widely held to be unknown. Different bacteria can be found from the depths of the oceans to the top of the mountains; even the air is more or less colonized by bacteria. Most bacteria are either harmless or even advantageous to human beings but there are also bacteria, which can cause severe infectious diseases or spoil the supplies intended for human consumption. Therefore, it is vitally important not only to be able to detect and enumerate bacteria but also to assess their viability and possible harmfulness. Whilst the growth of bacteria is remarkably fast under optimum conditions and easy to detect by cultural methods, most bacteria are believed to lie in stationary phase of growth in which the actual growth is ceased and thus bacteria may simply be undetectable by cultural techniques. Additionally, several injurious factors such as low and high temperature or deficiency of nutrients can turn bacteria into a viable but non-culturable state (VBNC) that cannot be detected by cultural methods. Thereby, various noncultural techniques developed for the assessment of bacterial viability and killing have widely been exploited in modern microbiology. However, only a few methods are suitable for kinetic measurements, which enable the real-time detection of bacterial growth and viability. The present study describes alternative methods for measuring bacterial viability and killing as well as detecting the effects of various antimicrobial agents on bacteria on a real-time basis. The suitability of bacterial (lux) and beetle (luc) luciferases as well as green fluorescent protein (GFP) to act as a marker of bacterial viability and cell growth was tested. In particular, a multiparameter microplate assay based on GFP-luciferase combination as well as a flow cytometric measurement based on GFP-PI combination were developed to perform divergent viability analyses. The results obtained suggest that the antimicrobial activities of various drugs against bacteria could be successfully measured using both of these methods. Specifically, the data reliability of flow cytometric viability analysis was notably improved as GFP was utilized in the assay. A fluoro-luminometric microplate assay enabled kinetic measurements, which significantly improved and accelerated the assessment of bacterial viability compared to more conventional viability assays such as plate counting. Moreover, the multiparameter assay made simultaneous detection of GFP fluorescence and luciferase bioluminescence possible and provided extensive information about multiple cellular parameters in single assay, thereby increasing the accuracy of the assessment of the kinetics of antimicrobial activities on target bacteria.

Assessment of endocrine disrupting activities in the aquatic environment

Hormonstörande ämnen är syntetiska eller naturliga ämnen som stör organismers hormonsystem och bidrar till könsförvirring och sterilitet. Sådana ämnen kommer i ökande takt ut i vattenmiljön genom rester av läkemedel, bekämpningsmedel och industriprodukter. Eftersom det finns många likheter mellan hormonsystemen hos människan och övriga ryggradsdjur kan till exempel fiskar användas som modellsystem för att underöka detta problem. I tidigare undersökningar har man funnit hormonella störningar, bl.a. feminisering och maskulinisering hos fiskar som utsatts för avfallsvatten från kommunala reningsverk eller avfallsvatten från pappersindustrin. Målet med denna avhandling var att undersöka om renat avfallsvatten från kommunala reningsverk längs Finlands kust innehåller hormonstörande ämnen i sådana mängder att de kan försorsaka hormonstörande effekter på fisk. Målet i denna avhandling var också att utveckla cellulära testsystem baserade på fiskceller, eftersom behovet av tillförlitliga och kostnadseffektiva cellbaserade tester för att underlätta riskbedömningen av hormonstörande ämnen är mycket stort för tillfället. Som testsystem har storspiggen använts, som besitter flera användbara biomarkörer för att mäta hormonstörande ämnens påverkan. Resultaten tyder på att problemen med hormonstörande påverkan på fisk inte är lika utbredda i Finland som i många andra europeiska länder. Detta beror troligtvis på att finska reningsverk har effektiva reningstekniker som reducerar mängden hormonstörande ämnen, eller på att utspädningen av avloppen i recipienterna är större än i många andra länder. Dock kan problemen inte helt uteslutas eftersom vissa feminiserande (estrogena) effekter kunde observeras hos fisken i de undersökta recipienterna utanför kommunala reningsverk. I kontrollerade laboratorieförsök där storpsiggar exponerades för kommunalt avloppsvatten uppmättes även här effekter som tyder på förekomst av estrogener i avloppsvattnet. De cell-baserade testsystemen klarade av att förutspå hormonella effekter hos hel fisk och kan därför vara mycket användbara i fortsatta studier av hormonstörande ämnens verkningsmekanismer i preliminära toxicitetsbedömningar.

First-Line Chemotherapy with Anthracycline and Taxane Combination in Metastatic Breast Cancer. Detection of bone metastases with TRACP 5b

Background: In Finland, breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women, and prostate cancer (PC) that among men. At the metastatic stage both cancers remain essentially incurable. The goals of therapy include palliation of symptoms, improvement or maintenance of quality of life (QoL), delay of disease progression, and prolongation of survival. Balancing between efficacy and toxicity is the major challenge. With increasing costs of new treatments, appropriate use of resources is paramount. When new treatment regimes are introduced into clinical practice a comprehensive assessment of clinical benefit, adverse effects and cost is necessary. Both BC and PC show a predilection to metastasize to bone. Bone metastases cause significant morbidity impairing the patients´ QoL. Diagnosis of bone metastases relies mainly on radiological methods, which however lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. New tools are needed for detection and follow-up of bone metastases. Aims: Anthracyclines and taxanes are effective chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) with different mechanisms of action. Therefore, evaluation of the combination of anthracyclines with taxanes was a justifiable approach in the treatment of MBC patients. We assessed the efficacy, toxicity, cost of treatment and QoL of BC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy for metastatic disease with the combination epirubicin and docetaxel. We also evaluated the diagnostic potential of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRACP 5b) and carboxyterminal telopeptides of type I collagen (ICTP) in the diagnosis of bone metastases in BC and TRACP 5b in PC patients. Results: The combination of epirubicin and docetaxel was effective in this phase II study, but required individual dose adjustment to avoid neutropenic infections, and the use of growth factors to maintain a feasible dose level. The response rate was 54 % (95 % CI 37-71) and the median overall survival (OS) was 26 months. Of the patients, 87 % were treated for infections. The treatment of adverse events required additional use of health resources mainly due to neutropenic infections, thereby raising direct treatment costs by 20 %. Despite adverse events, the global QoL was not significantly compromised during the treatment. Clinically evident acute cardiac toxicity was not observed. The combination of serum TRACP 5b and ICTP was at least equally sensitive and specific in detection of of bone metastases as commonly used total alkaline phosphatise (tALP) in BC patients. In contrast, TRACP 5b was less specific and sensitive than tALP as a marker of skeletal changes in PC patients. Conclusions: Treatment with epirubicin and docetaxel showed high efficacy in first-line chemotherapy of MBC. The relatively high incidence of neutropenic infections requiring hospitalization increased the treatment costs. Despite adverse events, the global QoL of the patients was not significantly compromised. The combination of TRACP 5b and ICTP showed similar activity as tALP in detecting bone metastases in MBC. In contrast, TRACP 5b was less specific and sensitive than tALP as a marker of skeletal changes in PC.

Detection of the Vulnerable Atherosclerotic Plaque. Pre-Clinical Evaluation of Novel PET Imaging Probes With Experimental Models

Atherosclerosis is a life-long vascular inflammatory disease and the leading cause of death in Finland and in other western societies. The development of atherosclerotic plaques is progressive and they form when lipids begin to accumulate in the vessel wall. This accumulation triggers the migration of inflammatory cells that is a hallmark of vascular inflammation. Often, this plaque will become unstable and form vulnerable plaque which may rupture causing thrombosis and in the worst case, causing myocardial infarction or stroke. Identification of these vulnerable plaques before they rupture could save lives. At present, in the clinic, there exists no appropriated, non-invasive method for their identification. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate novel positron emission tomography (PET) probes for the detection of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques and to characterize, two mouse models of atherosclerosis. These studies were performed by using ex vivo and in vivo imaging modalities. The vulnerability of atherosclerotic plaques was evaluated as expression of active inflammatory cells, namely macrophages. Age and the duration of high-fat diet had a drastic impact on the development of atherosclerotic plaques in mice. In imaging of atherosclerosis, 6-month-old mice, kept on high-fat diet for 4 months, showed matured, metabolically active, atherosclerotic plaques. [18F]FDG and 68Ga were accumulated in the areas representative of vulnerable plaques. However, the slow clearance of 68Ga limits its use for the plaque imaging. The novel synthesized [68Ga]DOTA-RGD and [18F]EF5 tracers demonstrated efficient uptake in plaques as compared to the healthy vessel wall, but the pharmacokinetic properties of these tracers were not optimal in used models. In conclusion, these studies resulted in the identification of new strategies for the assessment of plaque stability and mouse models of atherosclerosis which could be used for plaque imaging. In the used probe panel, [18F]FDG was the best tracer for plaque imaging. However, further studies are warranted to clarify the applicability of [18F]EF5 and [68Ga]DOTA-RGD for imaging of atherosclerosis with other experimental models.

Risk Assessment of a Supplier in the Pharmaceutical Industry

The topic of this Master’s Thesis is risk assessment in the supply chain, and the work was done for a company operating in the pharmaceutical industry. The unique features of the industry bring additional challenges to risk management, due to high regulatory, docu-mentation and traceability requirements. The objective of the thesis was to generate a template for assessing the risks in the supply chain of current and potential suppliers of the case company. Risks pertaining to the case setting were sought mainly from in-house expertise of this specific product and supply chain as well as academic research papers and theory on risk management. A questionnaire was set up to assess the found risks on impact, occurrence and possibility of detection. Through this classification of the severity of the risks, the supplier assessment template was formed. A questionnaire template, comprised of the top 10 risks affecting the flow of information and materials in this setting, was formulated to serve as a generic tool for assessing risks in the supply chain of a pharmaceutical company. The template was tested on another supplier for usability and accuracy of found risks, and it demonstrated functioning in a differing supply chain and product setting.

Production of magnesium carbonates from serpentinites for CO2 mineral sequestration : optimisation towards industrial application

Global warming is one of the most alarming problems of this century. Initial scepticism concerning its validity is currently dwarfed by the intensification of extreme weather events whilst the gradual arising level of anthropogenic CO2 is pointed out as its main driver. Most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from large point sources (heat and power production and industrial processes) and the continued use of fossil fuels requires quick and effective measures to meet the world’s energy demand whilst (at least) stabilizing CO2 atmospheric levels. The framework known as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – or Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) – comprises a portfolio of technologies applicable to large‐scale GHG sources for preventing CO2 from entering the atmosphere. Amongst them, CO2 capture and mineralisation (CCM) presents the highest potential for CO2 sequestration as the predicted carbon storage capacity (as mineral carbonates) far exceeds the estimated levels of the worldwide identified fossil fuel reserves. The work presented in this thesis aims at taking a step forward to the deployment of an energy/cost effective process for simultaneous capture and storage of CO2 in the form of thermodynamically stable and environmentally friendly solid carbonates. R&D work on the process considered here began in 2007 at Åbo Akademi University in Finland. It involves the processing of magnesium silicate minerals with recyclable ammonium salts for extraction of magnesium at ambient pressure and 400‐440⁰C, followed by aqueous precipitation of magnesium in the form of hydroxide, Mg(OH)2, and finally Mg(OH)2 carbonation in a pressurised fluidized bed reactor at ~510⁰C and ~20 bar PCO2 to produce high purity MgCO3. Rock material taken from the Hitura nickel mine, Finland, and serpentinite collected from Bragança, Portugal, were tested for magnesium extraction with both ammonium sulphate and bisulphate (AS and ABS) for determination of optimal operation parameters, primarily: reaction time, reactor type and presence of moisture. Typical efficiencies range from 50 to 80% of magnesium extraction at 350‐450⁰C. In general ABS performs better than AS showing comparable efficiencies at lower temperature and reaction times. The best experimental results so far obtained include 80% magnesium extraction with ABS at 450⁰C in a laboratory scale rotary kiln and 70% Mg(OH)2 carbonation in the PFB at 500⁰C, 20 bar CO2 pressure for 15 minutes. The extraction reaction with ammonium salts is not at all selective towards magnesium. Other elements like iron, nickel, chromium, copper, etc., are also co‐extracted. Their separation, recovery and valorisation are addressed as well and found to be of great importance. The assessment of the exergetic performance of the process was carried out using Aspen Plus® software and pinch analysis technology. The choice of fluxing agent and its recovery method have a decisive sway in the performance of the process: AS is recovered by crystallisation and in general the whole process requires more exergy (2.48–5.09 GJ/tCO2sequestered) than ABS (2.48–4.47 GJ/tCO2sequestered) when ABS is recovered by thermal decomposition. However, the corrosive nature of molten ABS and operational problems inherent to thermal regeneration of ABS prohibit this route. Regeneration of ABS through addition of H2SO4 to AS (followed by crystallisation) results in an overall negative exergy balance (mainly at the expense of low grade heat) but will flood the system with sulphates. Although the ÅA route is still energy intensive, its performance is comparable to conventional CO2 capture methods using alkanolamine solvents. An energy‐neutral process is dependent on the availability and quality of nearby waste heat and economic viability might be achieved with: magnesium extraction and carbonation levels ≥ 90%, the processing of CO2‐containing flue gases (eliminating the expensive capture step) and production of marketable products.