T&K-yhteistyöprojektinvalintakriteerit ja - päätösprosessi: Case VR Cargo

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli löytää yritysten välisten tutkimus- ja kehityshankkeiden valintaan liittyviä kriittisiä tekijöitä ja luoda T&K-verkostojen analysointiin soveltuva malli, jonka avulla tutkimuksen caseyritys VR Cargo voi tehdä päätöksiä panostuksistaan eri hankkeisiin ja ylipäätänsä siitä, missä kannattaa olla mukana sekä kuinka löytää strategisia kehityskumppaneita. Työn teoriaosuus tehtiin kirjallisuuskatsauksena aiempaan T&K-tutkimukseen ja empiria osuus suoritettiin tekemällä teemahaastatteluja VR Cargossa sekä kahdessa vertailuyrityksessä. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin useita erilaisia kriittisiä tekijöitä T&K-yhteistyöhankkeisiin liittyen. Yrityksen on mm. huomioitava T&K-hankkeen strateginen sopivuus ja lisäarvo, määriteltävä motiivit ja riskit, yrityskohtaisten tekijöiden ovat oltava kunnossa, on tiedettävä millainen on yritykselle hyvä ja sopiva partneri sekä yhteistyötason tekijät on huomioitava. Tutkimuksessa rakennettua hankkeiden valintaan liittyvää päätöspuumallia, ei ole tarkoitettu tekemään lopullista valintapäätöstä, vaan sen tarkoituksena on helpottaa ja tukea valintaprosessia ja alentaa näin todennäköisyyttä unohtaa jokin tärkeä seikka valintaprosessissa.

Päätöspuun käyttö tutkamaalien initialisoinnissa

Suomen ilmatilaa valvotaan reaaliaikaisesti, pääasiassa ilmavalvontatutkilla. Ilmatilassa on lentokoneiden lisäksi paljon muitakin kohteita, jotka tutka havaitsee. Tutka lähettää nämä tiedot edelleen ilmavalvontajärjestelmään. Ilmavalvontajärjestelmä käsittelee tiedot, sekä lähettää ne edelleen esitysjärjestelmään. Esitysjärjestelmässä tiedot esitetään synteettisinä merkkeinä, seurantoina joista käytetään nimitystä träkki. Näiden tietojen puitteissa sekä oman ammattitaitonsa perusteella ihmiset tekevät päätöksiä. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on tutkia tutkan havaintoja träkkien initialisointipisteessä siten, että voitaisiin määritellä tyypillinen rakenne sille mikä on oikea ja mikä väärä tai huono träkki. Tämän lisäksi tulisi ennustaa, mitkä Irakeista eivät aiheudu ilma- aluksista. Saadut tulokset voivat helpottaa työtä havaintojen tulkinnassa - jokainen lintuparvi ei ole ehdokas seurannaksi. Havaintojen luokittelu voidaan tehdä joko neurolaskennalla tai päätöspuulla. Neurolaskenta tehdään neuroverkoilla, jotka koostuvat neuroneista. Päätöspuu- luokittelijat ovat oppivia tietorakenteita kuten neuroverkotkin. Yleisin päätöpuu on binääripuu. Tämän työn tavoitteena on opettaa päätöspuuluokittelija havaintojen avulla siten, että se pystyy luokittelemaan väärät havainnot oikeista. Neurolaskennan mahdollisuuksia tässä työssä ei käsitellä kuin teoreettisesti. Työn tuloksena voi todeta, että päätöspuuluokittelijat ovat erittäin kykeneviä erottamaan oikeat havainnot vääristä. Vaikka tulokset olivat rohkaiseva, lisää tutkimusta tarvitaan määrittelemään luotettavammin tekijät, jotka parhaiten suorittavat luokittelun.

Training system for conceptual design and evaluation for wastewater treatment

Rising population, rapid urbanisation and growing industrialisation have severely stressed water quality and its availability in Malawi. In addition, financial and institutional problems and the expanding agro industry have aggravated this problem. The situation is worsened by depleting water resources and pollution from untreated sewage and industrial effluent. The increasing scarcity of clean water calls for the need for appropriate management of available water resources. There is also demand for a training system for conceptual design and evaluation for wastewater treatment in order to build the capacity for technical service providers and environmental practitioners in the country. It is predicted that Malawi will face a water stress situation by 2025. In the city of Blantyre, this situation is aggravated by the serious pollution threat from the grossly inadequate sewage treatment capacity. This capacity is only 23.5% of the wastewater being generated presently. In addition, limited or non-existent industrial effluent treatment has contributed to the severe water quality degradation. This situation poses a threat to the ecologically fragile and sensitive receiving water courses within the city. This water is used for domestic purposes further downstream. This manuscript outlines the legal and policy framework for wastewater treatment in Malawi. The manuscript also evaluates the existing wastewater treatment systems in Blantyre. This evaluation aims at determining if the effluent levels at the municipal plants conform to existing standards and guidelines and other associated policy and regulatory frameworks. The raw material at all the three municipal plants is sewage. The typical wastewater parameters are Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD5), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). The treatment target is BOD5, COD, and TSS reduction. Typical wastewater parameters at the wastewater treatment plant at MDW&S textile and garments factory are BOD5 and COD. The treatment target is to reduce BOD5 and COD. The manuscript further evaluates a design approach of the three municipal wastewater treatment plants in the city and the wastewater treatment plant at Mapeto David Whitehead & Sons (MDW&S) textile and garments factory. This evaluation utilises case-based design and case-based reasoning principles in the ED-WAVE tool to determine if there is potential for the tool in Blantyre. The manuscript finally evaluates the technology selection process for appropriate wastewater treatment systems for the city of Blantyre. The criteria for selection of appropriate wastewater treatment systems are discussed. Decision support tools and the decision tree making process for technology selection are also discussed. Based on the treatment targets and design criteria at the eight cases evaluated in this manuscript in reference to similar cases in the ED-WAVE tool, this work confirms the practical use of case-based design and case-based reasoning principles in the ED-WAVE tool in the design and evaluation of wastewater treatment 6 systems in sub-Sahara Africa, using Blantyre, Malawi, as the case study area. After encountering a new situation, already collected decision scenarios (cases) are invoked and modified in order to arrive at a particular design alternative. What is necessary, however, is to appropriately modify the case arrived at through the Case Study Manager in order to come up with a design appropriate to the local situation taking into account technical, socio-economic and environmental aspects. This work provides a training system for conceptual design and evaluation for wastewater treatment.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Finding Methods for Recognizing and Classifying Spare Part Criticality – Case Full Deposit Stripping Machines

The aim of this Master’s thesis is to find a method for classifying spare part criticality in the case company. Several approaches exist for criticality classification of spare parts. The practical problem in this thesis is the lack of a generic analysis method for classifying spare parts of proprietary equipment of the case company. In order to find a classification method, a literature review of various analysis methods is required. The requirements of the case company also have to be recognized. This is achieved by consulting professionals in the company. The literature review states that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with decision tree models is a common method for classifying spare parts in academic literature. Most of the literature discusses spare part criticality in stock holding perspective. This is relevant perspective also for a customer orientated original equipment manufacturer (OEM), as the case company. A decision tree model is developed for classifying spare parts. The decision tree classifies spare parts into five criticality classes according to five criteria. The criteria are: safety risk, availability risk, functional criticality, predictability of failure and probability of failure. The criticality classes describe the level of criticality from non-critical to highly critical. The method is verified for classifying spare parts of a full deposit stripping machine. The classification can be utilized as a generic model for recognizing critical spare parts of other similar equipment, according to which spare part recommendations can be created. Purchase price of an item and equipment criticality were found to have no effect on spare part criticality in this context. Decision tree is recognized as the most suitable method for classifying spare part criticality in the company.

Expertise and decision making among clinicians in investigations of alleged child sexual abuse

The purpose of the present thesis was to explore different aspects of decision making and expertise in investigations of child sexual abuse (CSA) and subsequently shed some light on the reasons for shortcomings in the investigation processes. Clinicians’ subjective attitudes as well as scientifically based knowledge concerning CSA, CSA investigation and interviewing were explored. Furthermore the clinicians’ own view on their expertise and what enhances this expertise was investigated. Also, the effects of scientific knowledge, experience and attitudes on the decision making in a case of CSA were explored. Finally, the effects of different kinds of feedback as well as experience on the ability to evaluate CSA in the light of children’s behavior and base rates were investigated. Both explorative and experimental methods were used. The purpose of Study I was to investigate whether clinicians investigating child sexual abuse (CSA) rely more on scientific knowledge or on clinical experience when evaluating their own expertise. Another goal was to check what kind of beliefs the clinicians held. The connections between these different factors were investigated. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, experience, knowledge about CSA, selfevaluated expertise and beliefs about CSA was given to social workers, child psychiatrists and psychologists working with children. The results showed that the clinicians relied more on their clinical experience than on scientific knowledge when evaluating their expertise as investigators of CSA. Furthermore, social workers possessed stronger attitudes in favor of children than the other groups, while child psychiatrists had more negative attitudes towards the criminal justice system. Male participants held less strong beliefs than female participants. The findings indicate that the education of CSA investigators should focus more on theoretical knowledge and decision making processes as well as the role of beliefs In Study II school and family counseling psychologists completed a Child Sexual Abuse Attitude and Belief Scale. Four CSA related attitude and belief subscales were identified: 1. The Disclosure subscale reflecting favoring a disclosure at any cost, 2. The Pro-Child subscale reflecting unconditional belief in children's reports, 3. The Intuition subscale reflecting favoring an intuitive approach to CSA investigations, and 4. The Anti Criminal Justice System subscale reflecting negative attitudes towards the legal system. Beliefs that were erroneous according to empirical research were analyzed separately. The results suggest that some psychologists hold extreme attitudes and many erroneous beliefs related to CSA. Some misconceptions are common. Female participants tended to hold stronger attitudes than male participants. The more training in interviewing children the participants have, the more erroneous beliefs and stronger attitudes they hold. Experience did not affect attitudes and beliefs. In Study III mental health professionals’ sensitivity to suggestive interviewing in CSA cases was explored. Furthermore, the effects of attitudes and beliefs related to CSA and experience with CSA investigations on the sensitivity to suggestive influences in the interview were investigated. Also, the effect of base rate estimates of CSA on decisions was examined. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, different aspects of clinical experience, self-evaluated expertise, beliefs and knowledge about CSA and a set of ambiguous material based on real trial documents concerning an alleged CSA case was given to child mental health professionals. The experiment was based on a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (leading questions: yes vs no) x (stereotype induction: yes vs no) x (emotional tone: pressure to respond vs no pressure to respond) x (threats and rewards: yes vs no) between-subjects factorial design, in which the suggestiveness of the methods with which the responses of the child were obtained were varied. There was an additional condition in which the material did not contain any interview transcripts. The results showed that clinicians are sensitive only to the presence of leading questions but not to the presence of other suggestive techniques. Furthermore, the clinicians were not sensitive to the possibility that suggestive techniques could have been used when no interview transcripts had been included in the trial material. Experience had an effect on the sensitivity of the clinicians only regarding leading questions. Strong beliefs related to CSA lessened the sensitivity to leading questions. Those showing strong beliefs on the belief scales used in this study were even more prone to prosecute than other participants when other suggestive influences than leading questions were present. Controversy exists regarding effects of experience and feedback on clinical decision making. In Study IV the impact of the number of handled cases and of feedback on the decisions in cases of alleged CSA was investigated. One-hundred vignettes describing cases of suspected CSA were given to students with no experience with investigating CSA. The vignettes were based on statistical data about symptoms and prevalence of CSA. According to the theoretical likelihood of CSA the children described were categorized as abused or not abused. The participants were asked to decide whether abuse had occurred. They were divided into 4 groups: one received feedback on whether their decision was right or wrong, one received information about cognitive processes involved in decision making, one received both, and one did not receive feedback at all. The results showed that participants who received feedback on their performance made more correct positive decisions and participants who got information about decision making processes made more correct negative decisions. Feedback and information combined decreased the number of correct positive decisions but increased the number of correct negative decisions. The number of read cases had in itself a positive effect on correct positive decision.

Generalizing sample tree information with semiparametric and parametric models

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Predicting the growth response to thinning for Scots pine stands using individual-tree growth models

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Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

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