The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions : the Mackenzie Basin case study

Selostus: Viljelyvyöhykkeiden ja kasvumallien soveltaminen ilmastonmuutoksen tutkimisessa: Mackenzien jokialue, Kanada

Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

Selostus: Ilmakehä-, sää- ja ilmastoskenaarioiden kehittäminen pohjoisille alueille

U.S. landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation

Abstract

Climate Change and Ethics of Geoengineering -- Implications Of Climate Emergency Ethics

Global climate change and intentional climate modification, i.e. geoengineering include various ethical problems which are entangled as a complex ensemble of questions regarding the future of the biosphere. The possibilities of catastrophic effects of climate change which are also called “climate emergency” have led to the emergence of the idea of modifying the atmospheric conditions in the form of geoengineering. The novel issue of weather ethics is a subdivision of climate ethics, and it is interested in ethical and political questions surrounding weather and climate control and modification in a restricted spatio-temporal scale. The objective of geoengineering is to counterbalance the adverse effects of climate change and its diverse corollaries in various ways on a large scale. The claim of this dissertation is that there are ethical justifications to claim that currently large-scale interventions to the climate system are ethically questionable. The justification to pursue geoengineering on the basis of considering its pros and cons, is inadequate. Moral judgement can still be elaborated in cases where decisions have to be made urgently and the selection of desirable choices is severely limited. The changes needed to avoid severe negative impacts of climate change requires commitment to mitigation as well as social changes because technical solutions cannot address the issue of climate change altogether. The quantitative emphasis of consumerism should shift to qualitative focus on the aspiration for simplicity in order to a move towards the objective of the continuation of the existence of humankind and a flourishing, vital biosphere.

The relationships of organizational cultures, trust and innovativeness

Sekä organisaatiokulttuuria, luottamusta että innovatiivisuutta on tutkittu paljon, mutta toistaiseksi nämä käsitteet yhdistävää kokonaisvaltaista tutkimusta ei juuri ole tehty tai ainakaan raportoitu tieteellisissä julkaisuissa. Tätä tutkimus käsitteli organisaatiokulttuurin, luottamuksen ja innovatiivisuuden suhteita erilaisissa organisaatiokulttuureissa. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia organisaatiokulttuurin vaikutusta luottamukseen (sekä kompetenssiin, hyväntahtoisuuteen että rehellisyyteen perustuvaan lateraaliin, vertikaaliin ja institutionaaliseen luottamukseen), innovaatioilmastoon ja innovaatiotoiminnan tuloksellisuuteen. Organisaatiokulttuurin, luottamuksen ja innovatiivisuuden yhteyttä tarkasteltiin neljässä erityyppisessä organisaatiokulttuurissa (klaani-, adhokratia-, hierarkia- ja markkinakulttuurit), jotka pohjautuvat kilpailevien arvojen malliin. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osa toteutettiin posti ja Internet -pohjaisena kyselytutkimuksena 40 organisaatioyksikössä tilastollisen analyysin menetelmin. Yleisellä tasolla työssä saatiin selville, että luottamuksen ja innovatiivisuuden tasot vaihtelevat erityyppisissä organisaatio-kulttuureissa. Tarkemmin sanottuna klaani- ja adhokratiakulttuureissa luottamus ja innovatiivisuus olivat korkeita, ja näillä kulttuureilla oli myös positiivinen vaikutus innovaatiotoiminnan tuloksellisuuteen. Erityisesti institutionaalisen luottamuksen ja innovaatiotuen merkitykset olivat tärkeitä, sillä ne toimivat mediaattoreina organisaatiokulttuurin ja innovatiivisuuden välisessä suhteessa. Luottamuksella ja innovatiivisuudelle ei sitä vastoin ollut vaikutusta hierarkia- ja markkinakulttuureissa, tai vaikutus oli negatiivinen. Tässä työssä osoitettiin myös aiemmin hyvin vähän tutkitun institutionaalisen organisatorisen luottamuksen merkitys organisaatioiden innovatiivisuudessa.

IEA Bioenergy Task 40 “Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing supply and demand” Country report of Finland 2008

This study considered the current situation of biofuels markets in Finland. The fact that industry consumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production and a high share of solid biomass fuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. Wood is the most important source of bioenergy in Finland, representing 21% of the total energy consumption in 2006. Almost 80% of the wood-based energy is recovered from industrial by-products and residues. Finland has commitment itself to maintaining its greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level, at the highest, during the period 2008–2012. The energy and climate policy carried out in recent years has been based on the National Energy and Climate introduced in 2005. The Finnish energy policy aims to achieve the target, and a variety of measures are taken to promote the use of renewable energy sources and especially wood fuels. In 2007, the government started to prepare a new long-term (up to the year 2050) climate and energy strategy that will meet EU’s new targets for the reduction of green house gas emissions and the promotion of renewable energy sources. The new strategy will be introduced during 2008. The international biofuels trade has a substantial importance for the utilisation of bioenergy in Finland. In 2006, the total international trading of solid and liquid biofuels was approximately 64 PJ of which import was 61 PJ. Most of the import is indirect and takes place within the forest industry’s raw wood imports. In 2006, as much as 24% of wood energy was based on foreignorigin wood. Wood pellets and tall oil form the majority of export streams of biofuels. The indirect import of wood fuels increased almost 10% in 2004–2006, while the direct trade of solid and liquid biofuels has been almost constant.

Sähkön ja lämmön yhteistuotanto haasteellisilla polttoaineilla

Maailman energian kulutuksen lisääntymisen ja ilmastonmuutoksen myötä energiantuotannossa joudutaan jatkuvasti sopeutumaan muuttuviin tilanteisiin ja haasteisiin. Polttoteknillisiä haasteita aiheuttavat pelto- ja kierrätyspolttoaineet ovat lisäämässä osuuttaan uusiutuvien polttoaineiden joukossa. Jotta kyseisiä haasteellisia polttoaineita pystytään hyödyntämään, täytyy niiden aiheuttamat ongelmat tuntea ja laitevalmistajien kehittää niiden hyödyntämiseen sopivaa tekniikkaa. Tässä diplomityössä käydään läpi tulevaisuudessa käytettävät polttoaineet, nykyiset päästörajat, kiinteiden polttoaineiden poltto- ja kaasutustekniikat sekä likaantumis-, kuonaantumis- ja korroosiomekanismit voimalaitoskattiloissa. Työssä tutkitaan, onko haasteellisten polttoaineiden käyttöön investoiminen järkevää ja mikä nykypäivän tekniikoista on kannattavin. Myös välitulistuksen, lauhdeperän ja apujäähdyttimen kannattavuuksia vertaillaan sähkön ja lämmön yhteistuotannossa. Tuloksiksi saatiin, että edullisten peltobiomassojen ja kierrätyspolttoaineiden käyttäminen, joko perinteisten polttoaineiden seassa tai pääpolttoaineena, on nykyhinnoilla perinteisiin polttoaineisiin verrattuna kannattavaa. Investoiminen kierrätyspolttoaineiden valmistuslaitteisiin maksimoi kierrätyspolttoaineista saatavaa hyötyä. Välitulistuksen todettiin soveltuvan huonosti vastapaineprosessiin, sillä siitä saatava sähköntuotannon lisäys on hyvin pieni. Lauhdeperän ja apujäähdyttimen vertailuissa huomattiin, että lauhdeperä on kannattava investointi, jos sähkön ja lämmön hintaero pysyy tarpeeksi suurena. Haasteellisilla polttoaineilla pystytään pienentämään kasvihuonepäästöjä ja korvaamaan fossiilisten polttoaineiden käyttöä.

Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

On state and parameter estimation in chaotic systems

State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

Towards sustainable Iron- and steelmaking with economic optimization

The iron and steelmaking industry is among the major contributors to the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the world. The rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and the global concern about the greenhouse effect and climate change have brought about considerable investigations on how to reduce the energy intensity and CO2 emissions of this industrial sector. In this thesis the problem is tackled by mathematical modeling and optimization using three different approaches. The possibility to use biomass in the integrated steel plant, particularly as an auxiliary reductant in the blast furnace, is investigated. By pre-processing the biomass its heating value and carbon content can be increased at the same time as the oxygen content is decreased. As the compression strength of the preprocessed biomass is lower than that of coke, it is not suitable for replacing a major part of the coke in the blast furnace burden. Therefore the biomass is assumed to be injected at the tuyere level of the blast furnace. Carbon capture and storage is, nowadays, mostly associated with power plants but it can also be used to reduce the CO2 emissions of an integrated steel plant. In the case of a blast furnace, the effect of CCS can be further increased by recycling the carbon dioxide stripped top gas back into the process. However, this affects the economy of the integrated steel plant, as the amount of top gases available, e.g., for power and heat production is decreased. High quality raw materials are a prerequisite for smooth blast furnace operation. High quality coal is especially needed to produce coke with sufficient properties to ensure proper gas permeability and smooth burden descent. Lower quality coals as well as natural gas, which some countries have in great volumes, can be utilized with various direct and smelting reduction processes. The DRI produced with a direct reduction process can be utilized as a feed material for blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The liquid hot metal from a smelting reduction process can in turn be used in basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The unit sizes and investment costs of an alternative ironmaking process are also lower than those of a blast furnace. In this study, the economy of an integrated steel plant is investigated by simulation and optimization. The studied system consists of linearly described unit processes from coke plant to steel making units, with a more detailed thermodynamical model of the blast furnace. The results from the blast furnace operation with biomass injection revealed the importance of proper pre-processing of the raw biomass as the composition of the biomass as well as the heating value and the yield are all affected by the pyrolysis temperature. As for recycling of CO2 stripped blast furnace top gas, substantial reductions in the emission rates are achieved if the stripped CO2 can be stored. However, the optimal recycling degree together with other operation conditions is heavily dependent on the cost structure of CO2 emissions and stripping/storage. The economical feasibility related to the use of DRI in the blast furnace depends on the price ratio between the DRI pellets and the BF pellets. The high amount of energy needed in the rotary hearth furnace to reduce the iron ore leads to increased CO2 emissions.

The European Union and Assembling Biofuel Development – topological investigations concerning the associations between law, policy and space

Biofuels for transport are a renewable source of energy that were once heralded as a solution to multiple problems associated with poor urban air quality, the overproduction of agricultural commodities, the energy security of the European Union (EU) and climate change. It was only after the Union had implemented an incentivizing framework of legal and political instruments for the production, trade and consumption of biofuels that the problems of weakening food security, environmental degradation and increasing greenhouse gases through land-use changes began to unfold. In other words, the difference between political aims for why biofuels are promoted and their consequences has grown – which is also recognized by the EU policy-makers. Therefore, the global networks of producing, trading and consuming biofuels may face a complete restructure if the European Commission accomplishes its pursuit to sideline crop-based biofuels after 2020. My aim with this dissertation is not only to trace the manifold evolutions of the instruments used by the Union to govern biofuels but also to reveal how this evolution has influenced the dynamics of biofuel development. Therefore, I study the ways the EU’s legal and political instruments of steering biofuels are coconstitutive with the globalized spaces of biofuel development. My analytical strategy can be outlined through three concepts. I use the term ‘assemblage’ to approach the operations of the loose entity of actors and non-human elements that are the constituents of multi-scalar and -sectorial biofuel development. ‘Topology’ refers to the spatiality of this European biofuel assemblage and its parts whose evolving relations are treated as the active constituents of space, instead of simply being located in space. I apply the concept of ‘nomosphere’ to characterize the framework of policies, laws and other instruments that the EU applies and construes while attempting to govern biofuels. Even though both the materials and methods vary in the independent articles, these three concepts characterize my analytical strategy that allows me to study law, policy and space associated with each other. The results of my examinations underscore the importance of the instruments of governance of the EU constituting and stabilizing the spaces of producing and, on the other hand, how topological ruptures in biofuel development have enforced the need to reform policies. This analysis maps the vast scope of actors that are influenced by the mechanism of EU biofuel governance and, what is more, shows how they are actively engaging in the Union’s institutional policy formulation. By examining the consequences of fast biofuel development that are spatially dislocated from the established spaces of producing, trading and consuming biofuels such as indirect land use changes, I unfold the processes not tackled by the instruments of the EU. Indeed, it is these spatially dislocated processes that have pushed the Commission construing a new type of governing biofuels: transferring the instruments of climate change mitigation to land-use policies. Although efficient in mitigating these dislocated consequences, these instruments have also created peculiar ontological scaffolding for governing biofuels. According to this mode of governance, the spatiality of biofuel development appears to be already determined and the agency that could dampen the negative consequences originating from land-use practices is treated as irrelevant.

Environmental Challenges in the Joint Border Area of Norway, Finland and Russia

This report examines the human impact on the subarctic environment of the joint border area of Norway, Finland and Russia. The aim is to present the current state and recent changes that have taken place in the region. The main threat to the environment is the Pechenganikel mining and metallurgical industrial combine in the towns of Nikel and Zapolyarny in the Kola Peninsula. Emissions from this complex include high levels of heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants and sulfur dioxide. Pollution, along with climate change, water level regulation and other anthropogenic effects, has affected the aquatic ecosystems in the joint border area. The main heavy metals in the area are copper and nickel, the highest concentrations of which are measured near the combine. Direct discharge of sewage into the river continues and airborne heavy metal particles are also deposited to areas farther away. Climate changeinduced increase in temperature and precipitation in the Kola Peninsula is evident. Water level regulation with seven hydropower plants in the Pasvik River have changed it into a series of lakes and lake-like reservoirs. This report discusses modelling, which was enabled to estimate the effect of climate change on Lake Inarijärvi and the Pasvik River hydrology, water level fluctuation and ecology and to follow the sulfur dioxide emissions emitted from the Pechenganikel. Effects of pollution on the nature and concentrations of the main pollutants were studied and climate change in the border area and its effects on the ecology were estimated. Also the effects of water level regulation on the ecological status of the aquatic ecosystems were addressed.

Geochemistry and water quality of Lake Qarun, Egypt

Water geochemistry is a very important tool for studying the water quality in a given area. Geology and climate are the major natural factors controlling the chemistry of most natural waters. Anthropogenic impacts are the secondary sources of contamination in natural waters. This study presents the first integrative approach to the geochemistry and water quality of surface waters and Lake Qarun in the Fayoum catchment, Egypt. Moreover, geochemical modeling of Lake Qarun was firstly presented. The Nile River is the main source of water to the Fayoum watershed. To investigate the quality and geochemistry of this water, water samples from irrigation canals, drains and Lake Qarun were collected during the period 2010‒2013 from the whole Fayoum drainage basin to address the major processes and factors governing the evolution of water chemistry in the investigation area. About 34 physicochemical quality parameters, including major ions, oxygen isotopes, trace elements, nutrients and microbiological parameters were investigated in the water samples. Multivariable statistical analysis was used to interpret the interrelationship between the different studied parameters. Geochemical modeling of Lake Qarun was carried out using Hardie and Eugster’s evolutionary model and a model simulated by PHREEQC software. The crystallization sequence during evaporation of Lake Qarun brine was also studied using a Jänecke phase diagram involving the system Na‒K‒Mg‒ Cl‒SO4‒H2O. The results show that the chemistry of surface water in the Fayoum catchment evolves from Ca- Mg-HCO3 at the head waters to Ca‒Mg‒Cl‒SO4 and eventually to Na‒Cl downstream and at Lake Qarun. The main processes behind the high levels of Na, SO4 and Cl in downstream waters and in Lake Qarun are dissolution of evaporites from Fayoum soils followed by evapoconcentration. This was confirmed by binary plots between the different ions, Piper plot, Gibb’s plot and δ18O results. The modeled data proved that Lake Qarun brine evolves from drainage waters via an evaporation‒crystallization process. Through the precipitation of calcite and gypsum, the solution should reach the final composition "Na–Mg–SO4–Cl". As simulated by PHREEQC, further evaporation of lake brine can drive halite to precipitate in the final stages of evaporation. Significantly, the crystallization sequence during evaporation of the lake brine at the concentration ponds of the Egyptian Salts and Minerals Company (EMISAL) reflected the findings from both Hardie and Eugster’s evolutionary model and the PHREEQC simulated model. After crystallization of halite at the EMISAL ponds, the crystallization sequence during evaporation of the residual brine (bittern) was investigated using a Jänecke phase diagram at 35 °C. This diagram was more useful than PHREEQC for predicting the evaporation path especially in the case of this highly concentrated brine (bittern). The predicted crystallization path using a Jänecke phase diagram at 35 °C showed that halite, hexahydrite, kainite and kieserite should appear during bittern evaporation. Yet the actual crystallized mineral salts were only halite and hexahydrite. The absence of kainite was due to its metastability while the absence of kieserite was due to opposed relative humidity. The presence of a specific MgSO4.nH2O phase in ancient evaporite deposits can be used as a paleoclimatic indicator. Evaluation of surface water quality for agricultural purposes shows that some irrigation waters and all drainage waters have high salinities and therefore cannot be used for irrigation. Waters from irrigation canals used as a drinking water supply show higher concentrations of Al and suffer from high levels of total coliform (TC), fecal coliform (FC) and fecal streptococcus (FS). These waters cannot be used for drinking or agricultural purposes without treatment, because of their high health risk. Therefore it is crucial that environmental protection agencies and the media increase public awareness of this issue, especially in rural areas.