Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Scheduling of guarded command based models

Formal methods provide a means of reasoning about computer programs in order to prove correctness criteria. One subtype of formal methods is based on the weakest precondition predicate transformer semantics and uses guarded commands as the basic modelling construct. Examples of such formalisms are Action Systems and Event-B. Guarded commands can intuitively be understood as actions that may be triggered when an associated guard condition holds. Guarded commands whose guards hold are nondeterministically chosen for execution, but no further control flow is present by default. Such a modelling approach is convenient for proving correctness, and the Refinement Calculus allows for a stepwise development method. It also has a parallel interpretation facilitating development of concurrent software, and it is suitable for describing event-driven scenarios. However, for many application areas, the execution paradigm traditionally used comprises more explicit control flow, which constitutes an obstacle for using the above mentioned formal methods. In this thesis, we study how guarded command based modelling approaches can be conveniently and efficiently scheduled in different scenarios. We first focus on the modelling of trust for transactions in a social networking setting. Due to the event-based nature of the scenario, the use of guarded commands turns out to be relatively straightforward. We continue by studying modelling of concurrent software, with particular focus on compute-intensive scenarios. We go from theoretical considerations to the feasibility of implementation by evaluating the performance and scalability of executing a case study model in parallel using automatic scheduling performed by a dedicated scheduler. Finally, we propose a more explicit and non-centralised approach in which the flow of each task is controlled by a schedule of its own. The schedules are expressed in a dedicated scheduling language, and patterns assist the developer in proving correctness of the scheduled model with respect to the original one.

Coopetition as a lead generating mechanism: design, modelling and simulation

The aim of this research is to develop a tool that could allow to organize coopetitional relationships between organizations on the basis of two-sided Internet platform. The main result of current master thesis is a detailed description of the concept of the lead generating internet platform-based coopetition. With the tools of agent-based modelling and simulation, there were obtained results that could be used as a base for suggestion that the developed concept is able to cause a positive effect on some particular industries (e.g. web-design studios market) and potentially can bring some benefits and extra profitability for most companies that operate on this particular industry. Also on the basis of the results it can be assumed that the developed instrument is also able to increase the degree of transparency of the market to which it is applied.

Ohutlevytuotteenvalmistusteknisten piirteiden tunnistaminen ja käyttö suunnittelun apuna

Suunnittelu- ja valmistustoiminnot ovat eriytymässä myös ohutlevyteollisuudessa. Kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi, valmistusta siirretään alihankkijoille maihin, jossa työvoima on halpaa ja suuret markkinat lähellä, tuotekehityksen ja suunnittelun jäädessä Suomeen tai muualle Länsi-Eurooppaan. Tällöin vanhan lokaalin toimintamallin synergiaedut eivät ole enää mahdollisia ja tuotteen valmistettavuuden arviointi, laadunhallinta ja komponenttien yhteensopivuuden varmistaminen on erittäin haasteellista. Tässä tutkimuksessa etsittiin uuden toimintamallin tuomiin haasteisiin vastauksia piirrepohjaisesta mallintamisesta. Tavoitteen mukaisesti, tutkimuksessa tunnistettiin ohutlevytuotteen valmistusteknilliset piirteet ja luotiin niiden mukainen piirrekaavio. Piirteiden tunnistus vaati tutkimustyötä sekä nykyaikaisten suunnittelumetodien että valmistusmenetelmien ja ohutlevymateriaalien parissa. Lisäksitarkasteltiin, millaisia vaikutuksia piirteillä on tuotteen valmistettavuuteen ja miten nämä tulee huomioida tuotteen suunnittelussa.

Computational Market Dynamics of Virtual Economies

The last two decades have provided a vast opportunity to live and explore the compulsive imaginary world or virtual world through massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). MMORPG gives a wide range of opportunities to its users to participate with multi-players on the same platform, to communicate and to do real time actions. There is a virtual economy in these games which is largely player-driven. In-game currency provides its users to build up their Avatars, to buy or sell the necessary goods to play, survive in the games and so on. As a part of virtual economies generated through EVE Online, this thesis mainly focuses on how the prices of the minerals in EVE Online behave by applying the Jabłonska- Capasso-Morale (JCM) mathematical simulation model. It is to verify up to what degree the model can reproduce the virtual economy behavior. The model is applied to buy and sell prices of two minerals namely, isogen and morphite. The simulation results demonstrate that JCM model ts reasonably well to the mineral prices, which lets us conclude that virtual economies behave similarly to the real ones.

On Modelling, System Identification and Control of Servo-Systems with a Flexible Load

The present study was done with two different servo-systems. In the first system, a servo-hydraulic system was identified and then controlled by a fuzzy gainscheduling controller. The second servo-system, an electro-magnetic linear motor in suppressing the mechanical vibration and position tracking of a reference model are studied by using a neural network and an adaptive backstepping controller respectively. Followings are some descriptions of research methods. Electro Hydraulic Servo Systems (EHSS) are commonly used in industry. These kinds of systems are nonlinearin nature and their dynamic equations have several unknown parameters.System identification is a prerequisite to analysis of a dynamic system. One of the most promising novel evolutionary algorithms is the Differential Evolution (DE) for solving global optimization problems. In the study, the DE algorithm is proposed for handling nonlinear constraint functionswith boundary limits of variables to find the best parameters of a servo-hydraulic system with flexible load. The DE guarantees fast speed convergence and accurate solutions regardless the initial conditions of parameters. The control of hydraulic servo-systems has been the focus ofintense research over the past decades. These kinds of systems are nonlinear in nature and generally difficult to control. Since changing system parameters using the same gains will cause overshoot or even loss of system stability. The highly non-linear behaviour of these devices makes them ideal subjects for applying different types of sophisticated controllers. The study is concerned with a second order model reference to positioning control of a flexible load servo-hydraulic system using fuzzy gainscheduling. In the present research, to compensate the lack of dampingin a hydraulic system, an acceleration feedback was used. To compare the results, a pcontroller with feed-forward acceleration and different gains in extension and retraction is used. The design procedure for the controller and experimental results are discussed. The results suggest that using the fuzzy gain-scheduling controller decrease the error of position reference tracking. The second part of research was done on a PermanentMagnet Linear Synchronous Motor (PMLSM). In this study, a recurrent neural network compensator for suppressing mechanical vibration in PMLSM with a flexible load is studied. The linear motor is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller, and the vibration of the flexible mechanism is suppressed by using a hybrid recurrent neural network. The differential evolution strategy and Kalman filter method are used to avoid the local minimum problem, and estimate the states of system respectively. The proposed control method is firstly designed by using non-linear simulation model built in Matlab Simulink and then implemented in practical test rig. The proposed method works satisfactorily and suppresses the vibration successfully. In the last part of research, a nonlinear load control method is developed and implemented for a PMLSM with a flexible load. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired position reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillation. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm whose stability is ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. The states of the system needed in the controller are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The proposed controller is implemented and tested in a linear motor test drive and responses are presented.

Modelling mean above and below ground litter production based on yield tables

Selective papers of the workshop on "Development of models and forest soil surveys for monitoring of soil carbon", Koli, Finland, April 5-9 2006.

Stiffness based trajectory planning and feedforward based vibration suppression control of parallel robot machines

The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

In silico metabolic modelling of Saccharomyces cerevisiae for the overproduction of succinate using OptKnock and OptGene

Succinate is a naturally occurring metabolite in organism’s cell and is industrially important chemical with various applications in food and pharmaceutical industry. It is also widely used to produce bio-degradable plastics, surfactants, detergents etc. In last decades, emphasis has been given to bio-based chemical production using industrial biotechnology route rather than fossil-based production considering sustainability and environment friendly economy. In this thesis I am presenting a computational model for silico metabolic engineering of Saccharomyces cerevisiae for large scale production of succinate. For metabolic modelling, I have used OptKnock and OptGene optimization algorithms to identify the reactions to delete from the genome-scale metabolic model of S. cerevisiae to overproduce succinate by coupling with organism’s growth. Both OptKnock and OptGene proposed numerous straightforward and non-intuitive deletion strategies when number of constraints including growth constraint to the model were applied. The most interesting strategy identified by both algorithms was deletion combination of pyruvate decarboxylase and Ubiquinol:ferricytochrome c reductase(respiratory enzyme) reactions thereby also suggesting anaerobic fermentation of the organism in glucose medium. Such strategy was never reported earlier for growth-coupled succinate production in S.cerevisiae.

DFMA- Analysis and Aspects of Applying Internet Based Collaborative Design for Axial Eccentric Oil-Pump Design

The integrated system of design for manufacturing and assembly (DFMA) and internet based collaborative design are presented to support product design, manufacturing process, and assembly planning for axial eccentric oil-pump design. The presented system manages and schedules group oriented collaborative activities. The design guidelines of internet based collaborative design & DFMA are expressed. The components and the manufacturing stages of axial eccentric oil-pump are expressed in detail. The file formats of the presented system include the data types of collaborative design of the product, assembly design, assembly planning and assembly system design. Product design and assembly planning can be operated synchronously and intelligently and they are integrated under the condition of internet based collaborative design and DFMA. The technologies of collaborative modelling, collaborative manufacturing, and internet based collaborative assembly for the specific pump construction are developed. A seven-security level is presented to ensure the security of the internet based collaborative design system.

Innovation Process Management and System Modelling

Työn tavoitteena oli perehtyä innovaatiojohtamisen ja järjestelmän soveltamiseen prosessiteollisuuden toimintaympäristöön. Kirjallisuuslähteitä apuna käyttäen perehdyttiin liiketoimintaympäristön innovaatiojohtamiselle asettamiin vaatimuksiin ja erilaisiin innovaatiojärjestelmiin. Olennaisena osana innovaatiojohtamiseen liittyy sidosryhmien tarpeiden ja niiden tarjoamien resurssien huomioiminen toiminnassa. Myöskin tuotekehityksen menetelmät ja työkalut ovat omalta osaltaan merkittävässä asemassa toiminnan tehokkuutta arvioitaessa. Innovaatiojärjestelmä tulee sopeuttaa yrityksen toimintoihin ja sen erityispiirteet huomioonottaen siten, että toiminnan johtaminen prosessina tuo yritykselle ja sen sidosryhmille lisäarvoa. Innovaatiojärjestelmän luominen yritykselle on ainayksilöllinen prosessi ja siihen ei ole olemassa yleispätevää menetelmää, joka voitaisiin ottaa käyttöön sellaisenaan. Yritys, jonka liiketoiminta keskittyy kuitupohjaisten pakkausmateriaalien valmistamiseen, joutuu täyttämään toiminnassaan materiaalintoimittajien, omien tuotantoprosessiensa ja asiakkaiden sekä jopa loppukäyttäjien uusille tuotteille luomat odotukset. Innovaatiojohtamista sävyttää toiminnan tulosten suuri epävarmuus ja sen vaativien aineellisten ja henkisten resurssien mittavuus. Innovaatiotoiminnan johtaminen prosessina, käyttäen hyväksi järjestelmämallia, tavoittelee systemaattista ja asetettujen kriteerien täyttämää lähestymistapaa tuotekehityksen ja uusien liiketoimintainnovaatioiden alueella. Kehitetyn mallin tulee palvella monimutkaista liiketoimintaympäristöä, jokatoisaalta perustuu tehokkaaseen massatuotantoon ja toisaalta pyrkii erilaistumaan palvelemalla sekä huomioimalla asiakkaidensa tuotteille asettamat vaatimukset.