Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutus energialiiketoimintaan

Tässä kandidaatin työssä tarkasteltiin ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia energialiiketoimintaan Suomessa. Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia on tutkittu RCAO- ilmastomallilla, missä luotiin ilmaston muuttumisen skenaariot eri ilmastotekijöille ajanjaksolle 2016- 2045. Mallin avulla saadut tulokset ovat suuntaa antavia ja niihin on suhtauduttava kriittisesti. Ilmastonmuutoksen myötä on odotettavissa, että vikojen määrä tulee lisääntymään. Suomessa suuri osa keskijänniteverkosta on rakennettu metsien läpi ja ne ovat erittäin vika-alttiita. Tuulisuuden lisääntyminen, ukkosmäärien kasvu ja tykkylumi lisäävät tulevaisuudessa metsien keskelle rakennettujen verkkojen vikoja ellei niitä kehitetä vikavarmemmiksi. Verkkojen siirtäminen teiden varsiin ja kaapelointiasteen lisääminen ovat varmasti oikeita ratkaisuja tulevaisuuden kannalta. Verkkoyhtiöille ilmastonmuutos aiheuttaa luultavasti enemmän haittoja kuin hyötyjä. Vikojen lisääntyminen ja kunnossapidon kasvu aiheuttavat kuluja ja heikentävät energialiiketoiminnan kannattavuutta. Verkon luotettavuuden parantaminen näkyy investointikustannusten kasvuna. Sadannan lisääntyminen ja routaantumisen vähentyminen pehmentää maata ja heikentää kunnossapitoon käytettävien koneiden liikkumista maastossa.

The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions : the Mackenzie Basin case study

Selostus: Viljelyvyöhykkeiden ja kasvumallien soveltaminen ilmastonmuutoksen tutkimisessa: Mackenzien jokialue, Kanada

Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

Selostus: Ilmakehä-, sää- ja ilmastoskenaarioiden kehittäminen pohjoisille alueille

MANAGING STRATEGIC CHANGE:New Business Models Applying Wireless Technology as a Source of Competitive Edge

The diffusion of mobile telephony began in 1971 in Finland, when the first car phones, called ARP1 were taken to use. Technologies changed from ARP to NMT and later to GSM. The main application of the technology, however, was voice transfer. The birth of the Internet created an open public data network and easy access to other types of computer-based services over networks. Telephones had been used as modems, but the development of the cellular technologies enabled automatic access from mobile phones to Internet. Also other wireless technologies, for instance Wireless LANs, were also introduced. Telephony had developed from analog to digital in fixed networks and allowed easy integration of fixed and mobile networks. This development opened a completely new functionality to computers and mobile phones. It also initiated the merger of the information technology (IT) and telecommunication (TC) industries. Despite the arising opportunity for firms' new competition the applications based on the new functionality were rare. Furthermore, technology development combined with innovation can be disruptive to industries. This research focuses on the new technology's impact on competition in the ICT industry through understanding the strategic needs and alternative futures of the industry's customers. The change speed inthe ICT industry is high and therefore it was valuable to integrate the DynamicCapability view of the firm in this research. Dynamic capabilities are an application of the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. As is stated in the literature, strategic positioning complements RBV. This theoretical framework leads theresearch to focus on three areas: customer strategic innovation and business model development, external future analysis, and process development combining these two. The theoretical contribution of the research is in the development of methodology integrating theories of the RBV, dynamic capabilities and strategic positioning. The research approach has been constructive due to the actual managerial problems initiating the study. The requirement for iterative and innovative progress in the research supported the chosen research approach. The study applies known methods in product development, for instance, innovation process in theGroup Decision Support Systems (GDSS) laboratory and Quality Function Deployment (QFD), and combines them with known strategy analysis tools like industry analysis and scenario method. As the main result, the thesis presents the strategic innovation process, where new business concepts are used to describe the alternative resource configurations and scenarios as alternative competitive environments, which can be a new way for firms to achieve competitive advantage in high-velocity markets. In addition to the strategic innovation process as a result, thestudy has also resulted in approximately 250 new innovations for the participating firms, reduced technology uncertainty and helped strategic infrastructural decisions in the firms, and produced a knowledge-bank including data from 43 ICT and 19 paper industry firms between the years 1999 - 2004. The methods presentedin this research are also applicable to other industries.

Leptogenesis as the origin of matter-antimatter asymmetry in extra dimensional and supersymmetric models

The Standard Model of particle physics is currently the best description of fundamental particles and their interactions. All particles save the Higgs boson have been observed in particle accelerator experiments over the years. Despite the predictive power the Standard Model there are many phenomena that the scenario does not predict or explain. Among the most prominent dilemmas is matter-antimatter asymmetry, and much effort has been made in formulating scenarios that accurately predict the correct amount of matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. One of the most appealing explanations is baryogenesis via leptogenesis which not only serves as a mechanism of producing excess matter over antimatter but can also explain why neutrinos have very small non-zero masses. Interesting leptogenesis scenarios arise when other possible candidates of theories beyond the Standard Model are brought into the picture. In this thesis, we have studied leptogenesis in an extra dimensional framework and in a modified version of supersymmetric Standard Model. The first chapters of this thesis introduce the standard cosmological model, observations made on the photon to baryon ratio and necessary preconditions for successful baryogenesis. Baryogenesis via leptogenesis is then introduced and its connection to neutrino physics is illuminated. The final chapters concentrate on extra dimensional theories and supersymmetric models and their ability to accommodate leptogenesis. There, the results of our research are also presented.

Scheduling of guarded command based models

Formal methods provide a means of reasoning about computer programs in order to prove correctness criteria. One subtype of formal methods is based on the weakest precondition predicate transformer semantics and uses guarded commands as the basic modelling construct. Examples of such formalisms are Action Systems and Event-B. Guarded commands can intuitively be understood as actions that may be triggered when an associated guard condition holds. Guarded commands whose guards hold are nondeterministically chosen for execution, but no further control flow is present by default. Such a modelling approach is convenient for proving correctness, and the Refinement Calculus allows for a stepwise development method. It also has a parallel interpretation facilitating development of concurrent software, and it is suitable for describing event-driven scenarios. However, for many application areas, the execution paradigm traditionally used comprises more explicit control flow, which constitutes an obstacle for using the above mentioned formal methods. In this thesis, we study how guarded command based modelling approaches can be conveniently and efficiently scheduled in different scenarios. We first focus on the modelling of trust for transactions in a social networking setting. Due to the event-based nature of the scenario, the use of guarded commands turns out to be relatively straightforward. We continue by studying modelling of concurrent software, with particular focus on compute-intensive scenarios. We go from theoretical considerations to the feasibility of implementation by evaluating the performance and scalability of executing a case study model in parallel using automatic scheduling performed by a dedicated scheduler. Finally, we propose a more explicit and non-centralised approach in which the flow of each task is controlled by a schedule of its own. The schedules are expressed in a dedicated scheduling language, and patterns assist the developer in proving correctness of the scheduled model with respect to the original one.

Long-term nutrient load management and lake restoration: Case of Säkylän Pyhäjärvi (SW Finland)

Eutrophication caused by anthropogenic nutrient pollution has become one of the most severe threats to water bodies. Nutrients enter water bodies from atmospheric precipitation, industrial and domestic wastewaters and surface runoff from agricultural and forest areas. As point pollution has been significantly reduced in developed countries in recent decades, agricultural non-point sources have been increasingly identified as the largest source of nutrient loading in water bodies. In this study, Lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi and its catchment are studied as an example of a long-term, voluntary-based, co-operative model of lake and catchment management. Lake Pyhäjärvi is located in the centre of an intensive agricultural area in southwestern Finland. More than 20 professional fishermen operate in the lake area, and the lake is used as a drinking water source and for various recreational activities. Lake Pyhäjärvi is a good example of a large and shallow lake that suffers from eutrophication and is subject to measures to improve this undesired state under changing conditions. Climate change is one of the most important challenges faced by Lake Pyhäjärvi and other water bodies. The results show that climatic variation affects the amounts of runoff and nutrient loading and their timing during the year. The findings from the study area concerning warm winters and their influences on nutrient loading are in accordance with the IPCC scenarios of future climate change. In addition to nutrient reduction measures, the restoration of food chains (biomanipulation) is a key method in water quality management. The food-web structure in Lake Pyhäjärvi has, however, become disturbed due to mild winters, short ice cover and low fish catch. Ice cover that enables winter seining is extremely important to the water quality and ecosystem of Lake Pyhäjärvi, as the vendace stock is one of the key factors affecting the food web and the state of the lake. New methods for the reduction of nutrient loading and the treatment of runoff waters from agriculture, such as sand filters, were tested in field conditions. The results confirm that the filter technique is an applicable method for nutrient reduction, but further development is needed. The ability of sand filters to absorb nutrients can be improved with nutrient binding compounds, such as lime. Long-term hydrological, chemical and biological research and monitoring data on Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment provide a basis for water protection measures and improve our understanding of the complicated physical, chemical and biological interactions between the terrestrial and aquatic realms. In addition to measurements carried out in field conditions, Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment were studied using various modelling methods. In the calibration and validation of models, long-term and wide-ranging time series data proved to be valuable. Collaboration between researchers, modellers and local water managers further improves the reliability and usefulness of models. Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment can also be regarded as a good research laboratory from the point of view of the Baltic Sea. The main problem in both of them is eutrophication caused by excess nutrients, and nutrient loading has to be reduced – especially from agriculture. Mitigation measures are also similar in both cases.

Testing FCM technique for the wind energy scenarios in Finland

In the latter days, human activities constantly increase greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere, which has a direct impact on a global climate warming. Finland as European Union member, developed national structural plan to promote renewable energy generation, pursuing the aspects of Directive 2009/28/EC and put it on the sharepoint. Finland is on a way of enhancing national security of energy supply, increasing diversity of the energy mix. There are plenty significant objectives to develop onshore and offshore wind energy generation in country for a next few decades, as well as another renewable energy sources. To predict the future changes, there are a lot of scenario methods developed and adapted to energy industry. The Master’s thesis explored “Fuzzy cognitive maps” approach in scenarios developing, which captures expert’s knowledge in a graphical manner and using these captures for a raw scenarios testing and refinement. There were prospects of Finnish wind energy development for the year of 2030 considered, with aid of FCM technique. Five positive raw scenarios were developed and three of them tested against integrated expert’s map of knowledge, using graphical simulation. The study provides robust scenarios out of the preliminary defined, as outcome, assuming the impact of results, taken after simulation. The thesis was conducted in such way, that there will be possibilities to use existing knowledge captures from expert panel, to test and deploy different sets of scenarios regarding to Finnish wind energy development.

Evidencing and Sharing Value with Decision Making Models in an Industrial Maintenance Network

The objective of this thesis is to concretize the potential benefits that the industrial maintenance case network could achieve through using the value-based life-cycle model and the flexible asset management model. It is also inspected what factors prevent value creation and sharing in the maintenance contract practices of the case network. This thesis is a case study which utilizes modelling. Four scenarios were developed to demonstrate value creation in the future. The data was partly provided by the collaborating company, partly gathered from public financial statement information. The results indicate that value has been created through the past maintenance of the collaborating company’s rod mill and that profitability of the collaborating company has been mostly on satisfactory level during the past few years. Potential value might be created by increasing the share of proactive maintenance of the rod mill in the future. Profitability of the network could be improved in the future through flexible asset management operations. The main obstacle for value creation and sharing seems to be the lack of sufficient trust between the network members.

Future of Newspaper Business Models in Finland

The purpose of this Master’s thesis was to study the business model development in Finnish newspaper industry during the next then years through scenario planning. The objective was to see how will the business models develop amidst the many changes in the industry, what factors are affecting the change, what are the implications of these changes for the players in the industry and how should the Finnish newspaper companies evolve in order to succeed in the future. In this thesis the business model change is studied based on all the elements of business models, as it was discovered that the industry is too often focusing on changes in only few of those elements and a more broader view can provide valuable information for the companies. The results revealed that the industry is affected by many changes during the next ten years. Scenario planning provides a good tool for analyzing this change and for developing valuable options for businesses. After conducting series of interviews and discovering forces affecting the change, four different scenarios were developed centered on the role that newspaper will take and the level at which they are providing the content in the future. These scenarios indicated that there are varieties of options in the way the business models may develop and that companies should start making decisions proactively in order to succeed. As the business model elements are interdepended, changes made in the other elements will affect the whole model, making these decisions about the role and level of content important for the companies. In the future, it is likely that the Finnish newspaper industry will include many different kinds of business models, some of which can be drastically different from the current ones and some of which can still be similar, but take better into account the new kind of media environment.

Bumblebees in a Changing Climate: Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Queen Performance

Bumblebees are a very essential group of pollinating insects, but their populations have declined drastically during the past decades. We need to understand why their numbers are decreasing and what can be done to reverse this trend. Climate change-related phenomena, such as changes in the overwintering temperatures and spring conditions, are among the most prominent threats to bumblebees. Queens have a special role in the lifecycle of bumblebees because they overwinter and start new colonies the next year. Their successful performance: survival, overwintering ability, longevity, immune competence, and nest establishing capability in spring, is highly important for bumblebee populations. However, the effects of climate change on bumblebee queen performance remain unknown. The main objective of this thesis was to assess how temperature affects the performance of bumblebee queens during and after overwintering. The effects of warm temperature predicted by climate change scenarios on queen survival and stress-tolerance were studied by a four-month artificial diapause of bumblebee queens at two temperatures (9°C and 1.8°C). Bumblebee colonies were also reared in a laboratory and factors affecting colony characteristics were examined. In addition, queen performance during spring was studied in a starvation experiment using two temperatures (15°C as normal; 24°C as warmer than average) and queens collected from nature right after their emergence. My research revealed how temperature affects queen performance, and queen size was found to be an important factor determining the direction of some of these effects. We found a 0.4g weight threshold for bumblebee queens to be able to survive overwintering. In addition, during mild winters, larger queens have a higher chance than smaller ones to survive through winter and also to cope with immunological stresses after overwintering. During cold conditions, which are normal in the current climatic situation, this advantage disappears. In the spring starvation experiment, the starved queens survived approximately eight days longer in 15°C than in 24°C, which means that starvation risk rises significantly with increasing spring temperature, in a situation where food is scarce due to for example frost damage or asynchrony between bumblebees and their important food plants. These results could mean that in the future climate, larger queens are better able to survive the winter, initiate their nests and start rearing their offspring. This may be problematic, because I also detected two alternative strategies of colony development that differ between large and small queens; larger queens start to lay eggs earlier at nest initiation, their colonies mature later, they produce more workers, and they have a more strongly male biased sex allocation compared with smaller queens. If larger queens have a greater change of producing offspring after a mild winter, this could lead to a significant decline in the total production of new queens at a population level. Thus, it seems that queen size could act as one mechanism regulating the population level outcomes in different temperatures. The new information presented in my thesis reinforces that basic research, monitoring, and local species conservation of bumblebees both in Finland and globally must be increased to ensure that this highly important pollinator group survives in the face of climate change.

Evaluation of the main energy scenarios for the global energy transition

Energy scenarios are used as a tool to examine credible future states and pathways. The one who constructs a scenario defines the framework in which the possible outcomes exist. The credibility of a scenario depends on its compatibility with real world experiences, and on how well the general information of the study, methodology, and originality and processing of data are disclosed. In the thesis, selected global energy scenarios’ transparency and desirability from the society’s point of view were evaluated based on literature derived criteria. The global energy transition consists of changes to social conventions and economic development in addition to technological development. Energy solutions are economic and ethical choices due to far-reaching impacts of energy decision-making. Currently the global energy system is mostly based on fossil fuels, which is unsustainable over the long-term due to various reasons: negative climate change impacts, negative health impacts, depletion of fossil fuel reserves, resource-use conflicts with water management and food supply, loss of biodiversity, challenge to preserve ecosystems and resources for future generations, and inability of fossil fuels to provide universal access to modern energy services. Nuclear power and carbon capture and storage cannot be regarded as sustainable energy solutions due to their inherent risks and required long-term storage. The energy transition is driven by a growing energy demand, decreasing costs of renewables, modularity and scalability of renewable technologies, macroeconomic benefits of using renewables, investors’ risk awareness, renewable energy related attractive business opportunities, almost even distribution of solar and wind resources on the planet, growing awareness of the planet’s environmental status, environmental movements and tougher environmental legislation. Many of the investigated scenarios identified solar and wind power as a backbone for future energy systems. The scenarios, in which the solar and wind potentials were deployed in largest scale, met best the set out sustainability criteria. In future research, energy scenarios’ transparency can be improved by better disclosure on who has ordered the study, clarifying the funding, clearly referencing to used sources and indicating processed data, and by exploring how variations in cost assumptions and deployment of technologies influence on the outcomes of the study.