Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Net working capital estimation model in project business

The objective of this Master’s thesis is to develop a model which estimates net working capital (NWC) monthly in a year period. The study is conducted by a constructive research which uses a case study. The estimation model is designed in the need of one case company which operates in project business. Net working capital components should be linked together by an automatic model and estimated individually, including advanced components of NWC for example POC receivables. Net working capital estimation model of this study contains three parts: output template, input template and calculation model. The output template gets estimate values automatically from the input template and the calculation model. Into the input template estimate values of more stable NWC components are inputted manually. The calculate model gets estimate values for major affecting components automatically from the systems of a company by using a historical data and made plans. As a precondition for the functionality of the estimation calculation is that sales are estimated in one year period because the sales are linked to all NWC components.

On Effort Estimation in Software Projects

Software engineering is criticized as not being engineering or 'well-developed' science at all. Software engineers seem not to know exactly how long their projects will last, what they will cost, and will the software work properly after release. Measurements have to be taken in software projects to improve this situation. It is of limited use to only collect metrics afterwards. The values of the relevant metrics have to be predicted, too. The predictions (i.e. estimates) form the basis for proper project management. One of the most painful problems in software projects is effort estimation. It has a clear and central effect on other project attributes like cost and schedule, and to product attributes like size and quality. Effort estimation can be used for several purposes. In this thesis only the effort estimation in software projects for project management purposes is discussed. There is a short introduction to the measurement issues, and some metrics relevantin estimation context are presented. Effort estimation methods are covered quite broadly. The main new contribution in this thesis is the new estimation model that has been created. It takes use of the basic concepts of Function Point Analysis, but avoids the problems and pitfalls found in the method. It is relativelyeasy to use and learn. Effort estimation accuracy has significantly improved after taking this model into use. A major innovation related to the new estimationmodel is the identified need for hierarchical software size measurement. The author of this thesis has developed a three level solution for the estimation model. All currently used size metrics are static in nature, but this new proposed metric is dynamic. It takes use of the increased understanding of the nature of the work as specification and design work proceeds. It thus 'grows up' along with software projects. The effort estimation model development is not possible without gathering and analyzing history data. However, there are many problems with data in software engineering. A major roadblock is the amount and quality of data available. This thesis shows some useful techniques that have been successful in gathering and analyzing the data needed. An estimation process is needed to ensure that methods are used in a proper way, estimates are stored, reported and analyzed properly, and they are used for project management activities. A higher mechanism called measurement framework is also introduced shortly. The purpose of the framework is to define and maintain a measurement or estimationprocess. Without a proper framework, the estimation capability of an organization declines. It requires effort even to maintain an achieved level of estimationaccuracy. Estimation results in several successive releases are analyzed. It isclearly seen that the new estimation model works and the estimation improvementactions have been successful. The calibration of the hierarchical model is a critical activity. An example is shown to shed more light on the calibration and the model itself. There are also remarks about the sensitivity of the model. Finally, an example of usage is shown.

Cost Estimation of Engineering Environment Services

Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää tutkittavan insinööriyksikön projektien kustannusestimointiprosessia, siten että yksikön johdolla olisi tulevaisuudessa käytettävänään tarkempaa kustannustietoa. Jotta tämä olisi mahdollista, ensin täytyi selvittää yksikön toimintatavat, projektien kustannusrakenteet sekä kustannusatribuutit. Tämän teki mahdolliseksi projektien kustannushistoriatiedon tutkiminen sekä asiantuntijoiden haastattelu. Työn tuloksena syntyi kohdeyksikön muiden prosessien kanssa yhteensopiva kustannusestimointiprosessi sekä –malli.Kustannusestimointimenetelmän ja –mallin perustana on kustannusatribuutit, jotka määritellään erikseen tutkittavassa ympäristössä. Kustannusatribuutit löydetään historiatietoa tutkimalla, eli analysoimalla jo päättyneitä projekteja, projektien kustannusrakenteita sekä tekijöitä, jotka ovat vaikuttaneet kustannusten syntyyn. Tämän jälkeen kustannusatribuuteille täytyy määritellä painoarvot sekä painoarvojen vaihteluvälit. Estimointimallin tarkuutta voidaan parantaa mallin kalibroinnilla. Olen käyttänyt Goal – Question – Metric (GQM) –menetelmää tutkimuksen kehyksenä.

Implementation of Quantitative Reaction-based Model Refinement

Building a computational model for complex biological systems is an iterative process. It starts from an abstraction of the process and then incorporates more details regarding the specific biochemical reactions which results in the change of the model fit. Meanwhile, the model’s numerical properties such as its numerical fit and validation should be preserved. However, refitting the model after each refinement iteration is computationally expensive resource-wise. There is an alternative approach which ensures the model fit preservation without the need to refit the model after each refinement iteration. And this approach is known as quantitative model refinement. The aim of this thesis is to develop and implement a tool called ModelRef which does the quantitative model refinement automatically. It is both implemented as a stand-alone Java application and as one of Anduril framework components. ModelRef performs data refinement of a model and generates the results in two different well known formats (SBML and CPS formats). The development of this tool successfully reduces the time and resource needed and the errors generated as well by traditional reiteration of the whole model to perform the fitting procedure.

Collectiveness within startup teams – Leading the way to initiating and managing collective pursuit of opportunities in organizational contexts

While traditional entrepreneurship literature addresses the pursuit of entrepreneurial opportunities to a solo entrepreneur, scholars increasingly agree that new ventures are often founded and operated by entrepreneurial teams as collective efforts especially in hightechnology industries. Researchers also suggest that team ventures are more likely to survive and succeed than ventures founded by the individual entrepreneur although specific challenges might relate to multiple individuals being involved in joint entrepreneurial action. In addition to new ventures, entrepreneurial teams are seen central for organizing work in established organizations since the teams are able to create major product and service innovations that drive organizational success. Acknowledgement of the entrepreneurial teams in various organizational contexts has challenged the notion on the individual entrepreneur. However, considering that entrepreneurial teams represent a collective-level phenomenon that bases on interactions between organizational members, entrepreneurial teams may not have been studied as indepth as could be expected from the point of view of the team-level, rather than the individual or the individuals in the team. Many entrepreneurial team studies adopt the individualized view of entrepreneurship and examine the team members’ aggregate characteristics or the role of a lead entrepreneur. The previous understandings might not offer a comprehensive and indepth enough understanding of collectiveness within entrepreneurial teams and team venture performance that often relates to the team-level issues in particular. In addition, as the collective-level of entrepreneurial teams has been approached in various ways in the existing literatures, the phenomenon has been difficult to understand in research and practice. Hence, there is a need to understand entrepreneurial teams at the collective-level through a systematic and comprehensive perspective. This study takes part in the discussions on entrepreneurial teams. The overall objective of this study is to offer a description and understanding of collectiveness within entrepreneurial teams beyond individual(s). The research questions of the study are: 1) what collectiveness within entrepreneurial teams stands for, what constitutes the basic elements of it, and who are included in it, 2) why, how, and when collectiveness emerges or reinforces within entrepreneurial teams, and 3) why collectiveness within entrepreneurial teams matters and how it could be developed or supported. In order to answer the above questions, this study bases on three approaches, two set of empirical data, two analysis techniques, and conceptual study. The first data set consists of 12 qualitative semi-structured interviews with business school students who are seen as prospective entrepreneurs. The data is approached through a social constructionist perspective and analyzed through discourse analysis. The second data set bases on a qualitative multiplecase study approach that aims at theory elaboration. The main data consists of 14 individual and four group semi-structured thematic interviews with members of core entrepreneurial teams of four team startups in high-technology industries. The secondary data includes publicly available documents. This data set is approached through a critical realist perspective and analyzed through systematic thematic analysis. The study is completed through a conceptual study that aims at building a theoretical model of collective-level entrepreneurship drawing from existing literatures on organizational theory and social-psychology. The theoretical work applies a positivist perspective. This study consists of two parts. The first part includes an overview that introduces the research background, knowledge gaps and objectives, research strategy, and key concepts. It also outlines the existing knowledge of entrepreneurial team literature, presents and justifies the choices of paradigms and methods, summarizes the publications, and synthesizes the findings through answering the above mentioned research questions. The second part consists of five publications that address independent research questions but all enable to answer the research questions set for this study as a whole. The findings of this study suggest a map of relevant concepts and their relationships that help grasp collectiveness within entrepreneurial teams. The analyses conducted in the publications suggest that collectiveness within entrepreneurial teams stands for cognitive and affective structures in-between team members including elements of collective entity, collective idea of business, collective effort, collective attitudes and motivations, and collective feelings. Collectiveness within entrepreneurial teams also stands for specific joint entrepreneurial action components in which the structures are constructed. The action components reflect equality and democracy, and open and direct communication in particular. Collectiveness emerges because it is a powerful tool for overcoming individualized barriers to entrepreneurship and due to collectively oriented desire for, collective value orientation to, demand for, and encouragement to team entrepreneurship. Collectiveness emerges and reinforces in processes of joint creation and realization of entrepreneurial opportunities including joint analysis and planning of the opportunities and strategies, decision-making and realization of the opportunities, and evaluation, feedback, and sanctions of entrepreneurial action. Collectiveness matters because it is relevant for potential future entrepreneurs and because it affects the ways collective ventures are initiated and managed. Collectiveness also matters because it is a versatile, dynamic, and malleable phenomenon and the ideas of it can be applied across organizational contexts that require team work in discovering or creating and realizing new opportunities. This study further discusses how the findings add to the existing knowledge of entrepreneurial team literature and how the ideas can be applied in educational, managerial, and policy contexts.

Innovatiivisten ja funktionaalisten tuotteiden kysynnän ennustaminen terveydenhuollonalan tukkuyrityksessä

Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan miten kysyntää voidaan ennustaa erityyppisille tuotteille. Työssä esitellään miten funktionaaliset ja innovatiiviset tuotteet poikkeavat toisistaan sekä miten niiden toimitusketjut eroavat. Työssä esitellään kvantitatiivisia ja kvalitatiivisia menetelmiä kysynnän ennustamiseen erityyppisille tuotteille ja sitä kuinka ennustemenetelmä tulisi tuotteille valita. Työssä käydään läpi ennusteprosessi, ennusteiden suorituskyvyn mittaaminen ja ennustamisen hyödyt ja sudenkuopat. Työn käytännönosuus on tehty kohdeyritykselle, joka toimii terveydenhuollonalan maahantuojana ja tukkuyrityksenä. Työn tarkoituksena on luoda yritykselle ennusteenvalintatyökalu, jonka avulla voidaan valita yrityksen toisistaan poikkeaville tuotteille tarpeeseen sopivia kysynnän ennusteita. Työssä luodaan ennusteet neljälle yrityksen toisistaan poikkeavalle tuoteryhmälle, joista jokaisella on erilainen tarve ennusteen käytölle. Jokaisesta tuoteryhmästä on valittu yhdestä kolmeen tuotetta, joille luodaan ennusteet käyttäen yhtä tai kahta erilaista menetelmää ja niiden suoriutumista verrataan yksinkertaisimpaan menetelmään, naiiviin menetelmän tuloksiin.

Siltanosturin mallinnusmenetelmien kehittäminen

Työn tarkoituksena oli selvittää kaupallisen dynamiikan simulointiohjelmiston (Adams) soveltuvuus siltanosturin mallintamiseen. Työn kohteena oli kaksipalkkinen siltanosturi, joka sijaitsi KCI:n tiloissa Hyvinkäällä. Nosturin jänneväli oli noin 19.5 metriä ja nostokyky 16 tonnia. Mallintamisessa keskityttiin nosturin dynamiikkaan sekä ohjausvoimiin nosturin kantopyörissä. Simulointitulokset verifioitiin mittauksin. Koska mallista haluttiin mahdollisimman yksinkertainen, mallinnettiin ainoastaan pääkannattajat ja köydet joustavina. Muut osat mallinnettiin jäykkinä. Yksinkertaisuuteen pyrittiin sen vuoksi, että mallia oli tarkoitus käyttää perustana komponenttikirjaston luomiseksi myöhempää käyttöä varten. Tuloksista todettiin mallin soveltuvan hyvin nosturin dynamiikan mallintamiseen. Mallista saatavat tulokset vastasivat hyvin mitattuja liikkeitä. Ohjausvoimia ei kuitenkaan saatu verifioitua. Käytetty mittausmenetelmä osoittautui sopimattomaksi.

A Method for Estimating Short-term Profitability, Case Stora Enso Packaging Boards

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa case yritykselle malli lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimointia varten. Tutkimusmetodi on konstruktiivinen, ja malli kehitettiin laskentaihmisten avustuksella. Teoriaosassa käytiin kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla läpi kannattavuutta, budjetointia sekä itse ennustamista. Teoriaosassa pyrittiin löytämään sellaisia menetelmiä, joita voitaisiin käyttää lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimoinnissa. Rakennettavalle mallille asetettujen vaatimusten mukaan menetelmäksi valittiin harkintaan perustuva menetelmä (judgmental). Tutkimuksen mukaan kannattavuuteen vaikuttaa myyntihinta ja –määrä, tuotanto, raaka-aineiden hinnat ja varaston muutos. Rakennettu malli toimii kohdeyrityksessä kohtalaisen hyvin ja huomattavaa on se, että eri tehtaiden ja eri koneiden väliset erot saattavat olla kohtuullisen suuret. Nämä erot johtuvat pääasiassa tehtaan koosta ja mallien erilaisuudesta. Mallin käytännön toimivuus tulee kuitenkin parhaiten selville silloin, kun se on laskentaihmisten käytössä. Ennustamiseen liittyy kuitenkin aina omat ongelmansa ja uudetkaan menetelmät eivät välttämättä poista näitä ongelmia.

Developing of the Variable Speed Drive -control in simulated parallel pumping systems

This thesis presents briefly the basic operation and use of centrifugal pumps and parallel pumping applications. The characteristics of parallel pumping applications are compared to circuitry, in order to search analogy between these technical fields. The purpose of studying circuitry is to find out if common software tools for solving circuit performance could be used to observe parallel pumping applications. The empirical part of the thesis introduces a simulation environment for parallel pumping systems, which is based on circuit components of Matlab Simulink —software. The created simulation environment ensures the observation of variable speed controlled parallel pumping systems in case of different controlling methods. The introduced simulation environment was evaluated by building a simulation model for actual parallel pumping system at Lappeenranta University of Technology. The simulated performance of the parallel pumps was compared to measured values of the actual system. The gathered information shows, that if the initial data of the system and pump perfonnance is adequate, the circuitry based simulation environment can be exploited to observe parallel pumping systems. The introduced simulation environment can represent the actual operation of parallel pumps in reasonably accuracy. There by the circuitry based simulation can be used as a researching tool to develop new controlling ways for parallel pumps.

On Variational Ensemble Kalman Filtering

The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and four dimensional assimilation variational method (4D-VAR) are both advanced data assimilation methods. The EKF is impractical in large scale problems and 4D-VAR needs much effort in building the adjoint model. In this work we have formulated a data assimilation method that will tackle the above difficulties. The method will be later called the Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF). The method has been tested with the Lorenz95 model. Data has been simulated from the solution of the Lorenz95 equation with normally distributed noise. Two experiments have been conducted, first with full observations and the other one with partial observations. In each experiment we assimilate data with three-hour and six-hour time windows. Different ensemble sizes have been tested to examine the method. There is no strong difference between the results shown by the two time windows in either experiment. Experiment I gave similar results for all ensemble sizes tested while in experiment II, higher ensembles produce better results. In experiment I, a small ensemble size was enough to produce nice results while in experiment II the size had to be larger. Computational speed is not as good as we would want. The use of the Limited memory BFGS method instead of the current BFGS method might improve this. The method has proven succesful. Even if, it is unable to match the quality of analyses of EKF, it attains significant skill in forecasts ensuing from the analysis it has produced. It has two advantages over EKF; VEnKF does not require an adjoint model and it can be easily parallelized.

Knowledge modeling for innovative companies: case of business incubator

The paper presents a study which is aimed at building a knowledge model for a case company – business incubator “Ingria” (St. Petersburg, Russia). The business incubator is one of its kind organization in St. Petersburg, and one of the few in Russia, providing services for innovative entrepreneurial companies at an international level. Business incubation impact is deeply researched from the point of view of knowledge engineering. The paper also provides a broad analysis of various knowledge engineering tools used for visualization of knowledge, as well as knowledge modeling techniques.

Liikkuvan kivimurskaimen syötinosan rakenneanalyysi osarakennetekniikan avulla

Työn tarkoituksena oli selvittää, miten osarakennetekniikkaa voidaan soveltaa siirrettävän kivimurskaimen syötinosan simuloinnissa. Tätä tutkittiin luomalla kahdella eri ohjelmistolla simulaatiomalli syötinosasta ja mallintamalla syötinosan runko joustavaksi kappaleeksi osarakennetekniikan avulla. Luotujen simulointimallien tarkkuutta selvitettiin vertaamalla niistä saatuja rungon jännityksiä tutkittavan rakenteen rungosta mitattuihin jännityksiin. Työn tarkoituksena oli myös tutkia, miten hyvin simulaatiomallit soveltuvat käytettäväksi syötinosan tuotekehityksessä. Tässä työssä käytettiin syötinosan simulaatiomallin luomiseen ANSYS-ohjelmistoa ja ADAMS-ohjelmistoa. Simulaatiomalleihin lisättiin tutkittavasta järjestelmästä mitattu ohjaussignaali sekä syötinosan jousien arvot. Järjestelmän rakenneominaisuudet saatiin suoraan valmistajan luovuttamista tiedoista. ADAMS-ohjelmistolla mallinnetussa simulaatiomallissa runko mallinnettiin joustavaksi ANSYS-ohjelmistossa, josta se siirrettiin ADAMS-ohjelmistoon. Saaduista tuloksista kävi ilmi, että osarakennetekniikkaa voidaan hyödyntää syötinosan joustavan rungon simuloinnissa. Tutkittavasta järjestelmästä mitatuissa jännityksissä ja simulaatiomalleista saaduissa jännityksissä oli eroja, mutta jännityshistorian muodot ja suuruusluokat vastasivat pääosin toisiaan. Tulosten parantamiseksi tulee selvittää lisää alkuarvoja tutkittavasta järjestelmästä ja varmistua nyt saatujen jousiparametrien oikeellisuudesta.

Applications of augmented reality for sales in apparel industry in Russia

The sustainable growth of video interactivity technologies on different platforms in the lasts years opens good prospects for augmented reality technology adoption on different markets. In the end of 2011 there was an improvement in technology which allows building the 3D model of human body. Such an improvement could be used in apparel industry. The main goal of the study is to understand the level of acceptance of augmented reality as a technology on the Russian apparel market. For a more accurate investigation, a new model accounting for augmented reality characteristics, as well as for similarities and differences between online and offline customer behavior in apparel industry, was developed. As a result of the survey, the weights of different purchase intention factors for Russian consumer were found, and the information about Russian consumers’ preferences towards the augmented reality features in apparel market, especially in fitting time, real-time interaction and fitting quality peculiarities, was presented.