Visual customer segmentation and behavior analysis : a SOM-based approach

Ett ämne som väckt intresse både inom industrin och forskningen är hantering av kundförhållanden (CRM, eng. Customer Relationship Management), dvs. en kundorienterad affärsstrategi där företagen från att ha varit produktorienterade väljer att bli mera kundcentrerade. Numera kan kundernas beteende och aktiviteter lätt registreras och sparas med hjälp av integrerade affärssystem (ERP, eng. Enterprise Resource Planning) och datalager (DW, eng. Data Warehousing). Kunder med olika preferenser och köpbeteende skapar sin egen ”signatur” i synnerhet via användningen av kundkort, vilket möjliggör mångsidig modellering av kundernas köpbeteende. För att få en översikt av kundernas köpbeteende och deras lönsamhet, används ofta kundsegmentering som en metod för att indela kunderna i grupper utgående från deras likheter. De mest använda metoderna för kundsegmentering är analytiska modeller konstruerade för en viss tidsperiod. Dessa modeller beaktar inte att kundernas beteende kan förändras med tiden. I föreliggande avhandling skapas en holistisk översikt av kundernas karaktär och köpbeteende som utöver de konventionella segmenteringsmodellerna även beaktar dynamiken i köpbeteendet. Dynamiken i en kundsegmenteringsmodell innefattar förändringar i segmentens struktur och innehåll, samt förändringen av individuella kunders tillhörighet i ett segment (s.k migrationsanalyser). Vardera förändringen modelleras, analyseras och exemplifieras med visuella datautvinningstekniker, främst med självorganiserande kartor (SOM, eng. Self-Organizing Maps) och självorganiserande tidskartor (SOTM), en vidareutveckling av SOM. Visualiseringen anteciperas underlätta tolkningen av identifierade mönster och göra processen med kunskapsöverföring mellan den som gör analysen och beslutsfattaren smidigare. Asiakkuudenhallinta (CRM) eli organisaation muuttaminen tuotepainotteisesta asiakaskeskeiseksi on herättänyt mielenkiintoa niin yliopisto- kuin yritysmaailmassakin. Asiakkaiden käyttäytymistä ja toimintaa pystytään nykyään helposti tallentamaan ja varastoimaan toiminnanohjausjärjestelmien ja tietovarastojen avulla; asiakkaat jättävät jatkuvasti piirteistään ja ostokäyttäytymisestään kertovia tietojälkiä, joita voidaan analysoida. On tavallista, että asiakkaat poikkeavat toisistaan eri tavoin, ja heidän mieltymyksensä kuten myös ostokäyttäytymisensä saattavat olla hyvinkin erilaisia. Asiakaskäyttäytymisen monimuotoisuuteen ja tuottavuuteen paneuduttaessa käytetäänkin laajalti asiakassegmentointia eli asiakkaiden jakamista ryhmiin samankaltaisuuden perusteella. Perinteiset asiakassegmentoinnin ratkaisut ovat usein yksittäisiä analyyttisia malleja, jotka on tehty tietyn aikajakson perusteella. Tämän vuoksi ne monesti jättävät huomioimatta sen, että asiakkaiden käyttäytyminen saattaa ajan kuluessa muuttua. Tässä väitöskirjassa pyritäänkin tarjoamaan holistinen kuva asiakkaiden ominaisuuksista ja ostokäyttäytymisestä tarkastelemalla kahta muutosvoimaa tiettyyn aikarajaukseen perustuvien perinteisten segmentointimallien lisäksi. Nämä kaksi asiakassegmentointimallin dynamiikkaa ovat muutokset segmenttien rakenteessa ja muutokset yksittäisten asiakkaiden kuulumisessa ryhmään. Ensimmäistä dynamiikkaa lähestytään ajallisen asiakassegmentoinnin avulla, jossa visualisoidaan ajan kuluessa tapahtuvat muutokset segmenttien rakenteissa ja profiileissa. Toista dynamiikkaa taas lähestytään käyttäen nk. segmenttisiirtymien analyysia, jossa visuaalisin keinoin tunnistetaan samantyyppisesti segmentistä toiseen vaihtavat asiakkaat. Visualisoinnin tehtävänä on tukea havaittujen kaavojen tulkitsemista sekä helpottaa tiedonsiirtoa analysoijan ja päättäjien välillä. Visuaalisia tiedonlouhintamenetelmiä, kuten itseorganisoivia karttoja ja niiden laajennuksia, käytetään osoittamaan näiden menetelmien hyödyllisyys sekä asiakkuudenhallinnassa yleisesti että erityisesti asiakassegmentoinnissa.

Analysis of Industrial Granular Flow Applications by Using Advanced Collision Models

Granular flow phenomena are frequently encountered in the design of process and industrial plants in the traditional fields of the chemical, nuclear and oil industries as well as in other activities such as food and materials handling. Multi-phase flow is one important branch of the granular flow. Granular materials have unusual kinds of behavior compared to normal materials, either solids or fluids. Although some of the characteristics are still not well-known yet, one thing is confirmed: the particle-particle interaction plays a key role in the dynamics of granular materials, especially for dense granular materials. At the beginning of this thesis, detailed illustration of developing two models for describing the interaction based on the results of finite-element simulation, dimension analysis and numerical simulation is presented. The first model is used to describing the normal collision of viscoelastic particles. Based on some existent models, more parameters are added to this model, which make the model predict the experimental results more accurately. The second model is used for oblique collision, which include the effects from tangential velocity, angular velocity and surface friction based on Coulomb's law. The theoretical predictions of this model are in agreement with those by finite-element simulation. I n the latter chapters of this thesis, the models are used to predict industrial granular flow and the agreement between the simulations and experiments also shows the validation of the new model. The first case presents the simulation of granular flow passing over a circular obstacle. The simulations successfully predict the existence of a parabolic steady layer and show how the characteristics of the particles, such as coefficients of restitution and surface friction affect the separation results. The second case is a spinning container filled with granular material. Employing the previous models, the simulation could also reproduce experimentally observed phenomena, such as a depression in the center of a high frequency rotation. The third application is about gas-solid mixed flow in a vertically vibrated device. Gas phase motion is added to coherence with the particle motion. The governing equations of the gas phase are solved by using the Large eddy simulation (LES) and particle motion is predicted by using the Lagrangian method. The simulation predicted some pattern formation reported by experiment.

Validation Studies of Thermal-hydraulic Code for Safety Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

This thesis gives an overview of the validation process for thermal hydraulic system codes and it presents in more detail the assessment and validation of the French code CATHARE for VVER calculations. Three assessment cases are presented: loop seal clearing, core reflooding and flow in a horizontal steam generator. The experience gained during these assessment and validation calculations has been used to analyze the behavior of the horizontal steam generator and the natural circulation in the geometry of the Loviisa nuclear power plant. The cases presented are not exhaustive, but they give a good overview of the work performed by the personnel of Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). Large part of the work has been performed in co-operation with the CATHARE-team in Grenoble, France. The design of a Russian type pressurized water reactor, VVER, differs from that of a Western-type PWR. Most of thermal-hydraulic system codes are validated only for the Western-type PWRs. Thus, the codes should be assessed and validated also for VVER design in order to establish any weaknesses in the models. This information is needed before codes can be used for the safety analysis. Theresults of the assessment and validation calculations presented here show that the CATHARE code can be used also for the thermal-hydraulic safety studies for VVER type plants. However, some areas have been indicated which need to be reassessed after further experimental data become available. These areas are mostly connected to the horizontal stem generators, like condensation and phase separation in primary side tubes. The work presented in this thesis covers a large numberof the phenomena included in the CSNI code validation matrices for small and intermediate leaks and for transients. Also some of the phenomena included in the matrix for large break LOCAs are covered. The matrices for code validation for VVER applications should be used when future experimental programs are planned for code validation.

Theoretical Analysis and Simulations of Vertically Vibrated Granular Materials

The dynamical properties ofshaken granular materials are important in many industrial applications where the shaking is used to mix, segregate and transport them. In this work asystematic, large scale simulation study has been performed to investigate the rheology of dense granular media, in the presence of gas, in a three dimensional vertical cylinder filled with glass balls. The base wall of the cylinder is subjected to sinusoidal oscillation in the vertical direction. The viscoelastic behavior of glass balls during a collision, have been studied experimentally using a modified Newton's Cradle device. By analyzing the results of the measurements, using numerical model based on finite element method, the viscous damping coefficient was determinedfor the glass balls. To obtain detailed information about the interparticle interactions in a shaker, a simplified model for collision between particles of a granular material was proposed. In order to simulate the flow of surrounding gas, a formulation of the equations for fluid flow in a porous medium including particle forces was proposed. These equations are solved with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique using a subgrid-model originally proposed for compressible turbulent flows. For a pentagonal prism-shaped container under vertical vibrations, the results show that oscillon type structures were formed. Oscillons are highly localized particle-like excitations of the granular layer. This self-sustaining state was named by analogy with its closest large-scale analogy, the soliton, which was first documented by J.S. Russell in 1834. The results which has been reportedbyBordbar and Zamankhan(2005b)also show that slightly revised fluctuation-dissipation theorem might apply to shaken sand, which appears to be asystem far from equilibrium and could exhibit strong spatial and temporal variations in quantities such as density and local particle velocity. In this light, hydrodynamic type continuum equations were presented for describing the deformation and flow of dense gas-particle mixtures. The constitutive equation used for the stress tensor provides an effective viscosity with a liquid-like character at low shear rates and a gaseous-like behavior at high shear rates. The numerical solutions were obtained for the aforementioned hydrodynamic equations for predicting the flow dynamics ofdense mixture of gas and particles in vertical cylindrical containers. For a heptagonal prism shaped container under vertical vibrations, the model results were found to predict bubbling behavior analogous to those observed experimentally. This bubbling behavior may be explained by the unusual gas pressure distribution found in the bed. In addition, oscillon type structures were found to be formed using a vertically vibrated, pentagonal prism shaped container in agreement with computer simulation results. These observations suggest that the pressure distribution plays a key rolein deformation and flow of dense mixtures of gas and particles under vertical vibrations. The present models provide greater insight toward the explanation of poorly understood hydrodynamic phenomena in the field of granular flows and dense gas-particle mixtures. The models can be generalized to investigate the granular material-container wall interactions which would be an issue of high interests in the industrial applications. By following this approach ideal processing conditions and powder transport can be created in industrial systems.

Dynamic analysis of belt-drives using the absolute nodal coordinate formulation

Belt-drive systems have been and still are the most commonly used power transmission form in various applications of different scale and use. The peculiar features of the dynamics of the belt-drives include highly nonlinear deformation,large rigid body motion, a dynamical contact through a dry friction interface between the belt and pulleys with sticking and slipping zones, cyclic tension of the belt during the operation and creeping of the belt against the pulleys. The life of the belt-drive is critically related on these features, and therefore, amodel which can be used to study the correlations between the initial values and the responses of the belt-drives is a valuable source of information for the development process of the belt-drives. Traditionally, the finite element models of the belt-drives consist of a large number of elements thatmay lead to computational inefficiency. In this research, the beneficial features of the absolute nodal coordinate formulation are utilized in the modeling of the belt-drives in order to fulfill the following requirements for the successful and efficient analysis of the belt-drive systems: the exact modeling of the rigid body inertia during an arbitrary rigid body motion, the consideration of theeffect of the shear deformation, the exact description of the highly nonlinear deformations and a simple and realistic description of the contact. The use of distributed contact forces and high order beam and plate elements based on the absolute nodal coordinate formulation are applied to the modeling of the belt-drives in two- and three-dimensional cases. According to the numerical results, a realistic behavior of the belt-drives can be obtained with a significantly smaller number of elements and degrees of freedom in comparison to the previously published finite element models of belt-drives. The results of theexamples demonstrate the functionality and suitability of the absolute nodal coordinate formulation for the computationally efficient and realistic modeling ofbelt-drives. This study also introduces an approach to avoid the problems related to the use of the continuum mechanics approach in the definition of elastic forces on the absolute nodal coordinate formulation. This approach is applied to a new computationally efficient two-dimensional shear deformable beam element based on the absolute nodal coordinate formulation. The proposed beam element uses a linear displacement field neglecting higher-order terms and a reduced number of nodal coordinates, which leads to fewer degrees of freedom in a finite element.

Modelling of North-West Russian market behavior considering technical restrictions of transmission grid

Nowadays the Finnish-Russian electric energy interaction is carried out through the back-to-back DC Vyborg substation and several power plants working synchronously with Finnish power system. Constant amount of energy flows in one direction — from Russia to Finland. But the process of electricity market development in Russian energy system makes the new possibilities of electrical cooperation available. The goal of master's thesis is to analyze the current state and possible evolution trends of North-West Russian system in relation with future possible change in power flow between Russia and Finland. The research is done by modelling the market of North-West Russia and examination of technical grid restrictions. The operational market models of North-West region of Russia for the years 2008 and 2015 were created during the research process. The description of prepared market models together with modelling results and their analysis are shown in the work. The description of power flow study process and results are also presented.

Literature review on permanent magnet generators design and dynamic behavior

This paper is a literature review which describes the construction of state of the art of permanent magnet generators and motors constructing and discusses the current and possible application of these machines in industry. Permanent magnet machines are a well-know class of rotating and linear electric machines used for many years in industrial applications. A particular interest for permanent magnet generators is connected with wind mills, which seem to be becoming increasingly popular nowadays. Geared and direct-driven permanent magnet generators are described. A classification of direct-driven permanent magnet generators is given. Design aspects of permanent magnet generators are presented. Permanent magnet generators for wind turbines designs are highlighted. Dynamics and vibration problems of permanent magnet generators covered in literature are presented. The application of the Finite Element Method for mechanical problems solution in the field of permanent magnet generators is discussed.

Human behavior on the Internet

In this thesis, "Human behavior on the Internet", the human anxiety is conceptualized. The following questions have guided the writing of the thesis: How humans behave with the Internet technology? What goes in their mind? What kinds of behaviors are shown while using the Internet? What is the role of the content on the Internet and especially what are the types of anxiety behavior on the Internet? By conceptualization this thesis aims to provide a model for studying whether humans show signs of less or exacerbated anxiety while using the Internet. The empirical part of this thesis was built on new developed model and user study that utilizes that model. For the user study, the target users were divided into two groups based on their skill level. The user study used both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative research was conducted using interviews and observational analysis. The quantitative research was conducted in three iterations by using questionnaires and surveys. These results suggest that the significance of human on using technology would be integral part of such a study. The study also suggests that Internet has lulled humans with the sense of dependency to greater extent. In particular, the results identified seven main areas of human anxiety. These forms of anxiety require further studies to encompass human anxiety in more detail.

Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Formal Power Analysis of Systems-on-Chip

The design methods and languages targeted to modern System-on-Chip designs are facing tremendous pressure of the ever-increasing complexity, power, and speed requirements. To estimate any of these three metrics, there is a trade-off between accuracy and abstraction level of detail in which a system under design is analyzed. The more detailed the description, the more accurate the simulation will be, but, on the other hand, the more time consuming it will be. Moreover, a designer wants to make decisions as early as possible in the design flow to avoid costly design backtracking. To answer the challenges posed upon System-on-chip designs, this thesis introduces a formal, power aware framework, its development methods, and methods to constraint and analyze power consumption of the system under design. This thesis discusses on power analysis of synchronous and asynchronous systems not forgetting the communication aspects of these systems. The presented framework is built upon the Timed Action System formalism, which offer an environment to analyze and constraint the functional and temporal behavior of the system at high abstraction level. Furthermore, due to the complexity of System-on-Chip designs, the possibility to abstract unnecessary implementation details at higher abstraction levels is an essential part of the introduced design framework. With the encapsulation and abstraction techniques incorporated with the procedure based communication allows a designer to use the presented power aware framework in modeling these large scale systems. The introduced techniques also enable one to subdivide the development of communication and computation into own tasks. This property is taken into account in the power analysis part as well. Furthermore, the presented framework is developed in a way that it can be used throughout the design project. In other words, a designer is able to model and analyze systems from an abstract specification down to an implementable specification.

Analysis of Patterns in Electricity Spot Market Time Series

Due to its non-storability, electricity must be produced at the same time that it is consumed, as a result prices are determined on an hourly basis and thus analysis becomes more challenging. Moreover, the seasonal fluctuations in demand and supply lead to a seasonal behavior of electricity spot prices. The purpose of this thesis is to seek and remove all causal effects from electricity spot prices and remain with pure prices for modeling purposes. To achieve this we use Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) for the visualization and the exploration of the data set and Time Series Decomposition method to estimate and extract the deterministic components from the series. To obtain the target series we use regression based on the background variables (water reservoir and temperature). The result obtained is three price series (for Sweden, Norway and System prices) with no apparent pattern.

Consumer Search Behavior in High Involvement Purchases

The aim of this study is to investigate the consumer search behavior in high involvement purchases. The results of this research provide the descriptive analysis of the information search phase which is a part of the decision-making process. The study focuses on customer’s choice of the information sources, motivation behind it and different factors that influence the search behavior. Particular attention is paid to the purchase categorization and the differences in information search between products and services. The qualitative research method is chosen for this study. The data is gathered through ten theme interviews. Each participant of the interview describes his/her own search behavior in a product and a service case. The results indicate that consumer search behavior vary according to the purchase categorization, demographic, individual and situational factors. Moreover, the above-mentioned factors influence the purpose and position of the information search phase in a five-step decision making model.

Utilization of a Time Domain Simulator in the Technical and Economic Analysis of a Wind Turbine Electric Drive Train

The amount of installed wind power has been growing exponentially during the past ten years. As wind turbines have become a significant source of electrical energy, the interactions between the turbines and the electric power network need to be studied more thoroughly than before. Especially, the behavior of the turbines in fault situations is of prime importance; simply disconnecting all wind turbines from the network during a voltage drop is no longer acceptable, since this would contribute to a total network collapse. These requirements have been a contributor to the increased role of simulations in the study and design of the electric drive train of a wind turbine. When planning a wind power investment, the selection of the site and the turbine are crucial for the economic feasibility of the installation. Economic feasibility, on the other hand, is the factor that determines whether or not investment in wind power will continue, contributing to green electricity production and reduction of emissions. In the selection of the installation site and the turbine (siting and site matching), the properties of the electric drive train of the planned turbine have so far been generally not been taken into account. Additionally, although the loss minimization of some of the individual components of the drive train has been studied, the drive train as a whole has received less attention. Furthermore, as a wind turbine will typically operate at a power level lower than the nominal most of the time, efficiency analysis in the nominal operating point is not sufficient. This doctoral dissertation attempts to combine the two aforementioned areas of interest by studying the applicability of time domain simulations in the analysis of the economicfeasibility of a wind turbine. The utilization of a general-purpose time domain simulator, otherwise applied to the study of network interactions and control systems, in the economic analysis of the wind energy conversion system is studied. The main benefits of the simulation-based method over traditional methods based on analytic calculation of losses include the ability to reuse and recombine existing models, the ability to analyze interactions between the components and subsystems in the electric drive train (something which is impossible when considering different subsystems as independent blocks, as is commonly done in theanalytical calculation of efficiencies), the ability to analyze in a rather straightforward manner the effect of selections other than physical components, for example control algorithms, and the ability to verify assumptions of the effects of a particular design change on the efficiency of the whole system. Based on the work, it can be concluded that differences between two configurations can be seen in the economic performance with only minor modifications to the simulation models used in the network interaction and control method study. This eliminates the need ofdeveloping analytic expressions for losses and enables the study of the system as a whole instead of modeling it as series connection of independent blocks with no lossinterdependencies. Three example cases (site matching, component selection, control principle selection) are provided to illustrate the usage of the approach and analyze its performance.

Strategic supply chain alignment to customer buying behavior

In search for competitive advantage, designing and managing supply chain networks have become a necessary competence for organizations. The target of this thesis is to answer a question, how to design a multiple supply chain network. The purpose is to study, what kind of different supply chain designs exist and, how to choose appropriate supply chain designs for a company. In the thesis, the focus is on the supply chain alignment to customers, more specifically to customer buying behavior. The research method was a case study. A framework for measuring customer buying behavior was developed based on the literature and it was used in the study of customer buying behavior in the case environment. In the case company structured interviews and data records were used as sources of evidence. Persons working in the customer-interface were interviewed face-to-face and through an e-mail questionnaire. When analyzing the data, a Quality function deployment matrix was used as one analysis method. As a result of the thesis, supply chain network of the case company is proposed to be divided into three separate supply chains, which focus on different areas and they could be called lean, agile and continuous replenishment supply chains. In conclusion, in the supply chain alignment to customer buying behavior several aspects have to be studied from different perspectives. According to the results, a multiple supply chain strategy is recommended to be implemented in the case company, since the diversity of the customer needs cannot be managed efficiently through a single supply chain.

The analysis of bifurcations in the spatially distributed Langford system

In this thesis the bifurcational behavior of the solutions of Langford system is analysed. The equilibriums of the Langford system are found, and the stability of equilibriums is discussed. The conditions of loss of stability are found. The periodic solution of the system is approximated. We consider three types of boundary condition for Langford spatially distributed system: Neumann conditions, Dirichlet conditions and Neumann conditions with additional requirement of zero average. We apply the Lyapunov-Schmidt method to Langford spatially distributed system for asymptotic approximation of the periodic mode. We analyse the influence of the diffusion on the behavior of self-oscillations. As well in the present work we perform numerical experiments and compare it with the analytical results.