Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Composition and cross-sectional area of muscle fibre types in relation to daily gain and lean and fat content of carcass in Landrace and Yorkshire pigs

Selostus: Lihassolutyypin ja lihassolun poikkipinta-alan yhteys sian kasvuun ja ruhon koostumukseen maatiaisessa ja yorkshiressa

Variation in soil organic carbon and thickness of soil horizons within a boreal forest stand - effect of trees and implications for sampling

Summary

Cell wall thickness and tangential and radial cell diameter of fertilized and irrigated Norway spruce

Abstract

Ash Particle Erosion on Steam Boiler Convective Section

In this study, equations for the calculation of erosion wear caused by ash particles on convective heat exchanger tubes of steam boilers are presented. Anew, three-dimensional test arrangement was used in the testing of the erosion wear of convective heat exchanger tubes of steam boilers. When using the sleeve-method, three different tube materials and three tube constructions could be tested. New results were obtained from the analyses. The main mechanisms of erosionwear phenomena and erosion wear as a function of collision conditions and material properties have been studied. Properties of fossil fuels have also been presented. When burning solid fuels, such as pulverized coal and peat in steam boilers, most of the ash is entrained by the flue gas in the furnace. In bubbling andcirculating fluidized bed boilers, particle concentration in the flue gas is high because of bed material entrained in the flue gas. Hard particles, such as sharp edged quartz crystals, cause erosion wear when colliding on convective heat exchanger tubes and on the rear wall of the steam boiler. The most important ways to reduce erosion wear in steam boilers is to keep the velocity of the flue gas moderate and prevent channelling of the ash flow in a certain part of the cross section of the flue gas channel, especially near the back wall. One can do this by constructing the boiler with the following components. Screen plates can beused to make the velocity and ash flow distributions more even at the cross-section of the channel. Shield plates and plate type constructions in superheaters can also be used. Erosion testing was conducted with three types of tube constructions: a one tube row, an inline tube bank with six tube rows, and a staggered tube bank with six tube rows. Three flow velocities and two particle concentrations were used in the tests, which were carried out at room temperature. Three particle materials were used: quartz, coal ash and peat ash particles. Mass loss, diameter loss and wall thickness loss measurements of the test sleeves were taken. Erosion wear as a function of flow conditions, tube material and tube construction was analyzed by single-variable linear regression analysis. In developing the erosion wear calculation equations, multi-variable linear regression analysis was used. In the staggered tube bank, erosion wear had a maximum value in a tube row 2 and a local maximum in row 5. In rows 3, 4 and 6, the erosion rate was low. On the other hand, in the in-line tube bank the minimum erosion rate occurred in tube row 2 and in further rows the erosion had an increasing value, so that in a six row tube bank, the maximum value occurred in row 6.

Effects of Dietary Fat Oxidation Products and Flavonols on Lipoprotein Oxidation

Various studies suggest that oxidative modifications of low density lipoprotein (LDL), and also other lipoproteins, have an important role in the development of atherosclerosis. In addition to the oxidation products formed endogenously, oxidised triacylglycerols (TAG) and oxysterols in the diet contribute to the oxidised lipoproteins found in circulation. However, studies on both the effect of oxidised dietary lipids on lipoprotein lipid oxidation and the reactions that modify oxidised fat after ingestion have been scarce. Studies on the effects of dietary antioxidants on the lipid oxidation in vivo and the risk of atherosclerosis have been inconclusive. More clinical trials are needed to test the importance of lipoprotein oxidation as a cardiovascular risk factor in humans. In the recent years, various methods have been optimised and applied to the analysis of lipid oxidation products in vivo, and information on the molecular structures of oxidised lipids in plasma, lipoproteins and atherosclerotic plaques has started to accumulate. However, specific structures of oxidised TAG molecules present in these tissues and lipoprotein fractions have not been investigated earlier. In the orginal research in this thesis, an approach based on highperformance liquid chromatographyelectrospray ionisationmass spectrometry (HPLCESIMS) and baseline diene conjugation (BDC) methods was used in order to investigate lipid oxidation level and oxidised TAG molecular structures in pig and human lipoproteins after dietary interventions. The approach was optimised with human LDL samples, which contained various oxidation products of TAG. LDL particles of hyperlipidaemic subjects contained an elevated amount of conjugated dienes. In the pig studies, several oxidised TAG structures with hydroxy, keto, epoxy or aldehydic groups were found in chylomicrons and VLDL after diets rich in sunflower seed oil. Also, the results showed that oxidised sunflower seed oil increased the oxidation of lipoprotein lipids and their TAG molecules. TAG hydroperoxides could be detected neither in the small intestinal mucosa of the pigs fed on the oxidised oil nor in their chylomicrons or VLDL.6 In the clinical studies, dietary flavonol aglycones extracted from sea buckthorn berries did not have an effect on lipoprotein lipid oxidation and other potential risk factors of atherosclerosis, but their absorption was demonstrated. Oil supplementation seemed to increase the bioavailability of the flavonols. Oxidised TAG molecules were detected in LDL particles of the subjects after both flavonol and control diets.

Hylynkäsittelyn ja annostelun vaikutus kartongin laatuun

Tämän työn tavoitteena oli löytää keinot taivekartongin riittävän z-suuntaisen lujuuden saavuttamiseksi tilanteessa, jossa runkokerrokseen annosteltavan hylyn määrää joudutaan pysyvästi vähentämään. Työn kirjallisuusosassa selvitettiin taivekartongin tärkeimmät ominaisuudet, joista tarkemmin tarkasteltiin palstautumislujuutta ja siihen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Lisäksi käytiin läpi palstautumislujuuden mittausmenetelmät. Merkittävimpiä teoriaosassa käsiteltyjä palstautumislujuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä olivat massojen käsittely ja annostelu, kuivalujalisäaineiden käyttö sekä rainanmuodostus. Hylyn annosteluosuuden pienentäminen vähensi taivekartongin paksuussuuntaista lujuutta ja runkomassan vedenpoistovastusta, mutta samanaikaisesti lisääntyivät kartongin paksuus ja taivutusjäykkyys. Hylyn vähäisemmän käytön seurauksena menetettyä lujuutta ei pystytty palauttamaan hylyn jauhatuksen määrää lisäämällä, eikä kartonkikoneen runkoviiraosan vedenpoistoon vaikuttamalla. Kun hylyn annosteluosuus laskettiin 20 %:in, saavutettiin runkokerroksen riittävä lujuus ainoastaan runkomassan pääkomponenttina käytettävän hiokemassaseoksen jauhatusastetta nostamalla tai korvaamalla pieni osa hiokkeesta hyvin hienoksi jauhetulla mäntysellulla. Hiokkeen freeness oli laskettava tasolta 300 ml CSF tasolle 250 ml CSF. Vastaavasti mäntysellu oli jauhettava hyvin pitkälle (°SR 74) tai annosteluosuuden oli oltava vähintään 2 %, jolloin jauhatusaste °SR 49 oli riittävä. Vähäisemmällä hylyn käytöllä saavutettu etu vedenpoistossa saatettaisiin menettää näiden toimenpiteiden vaikutuksesta.

The effects of real time control of welding parameters on weld quality in plasma arc keyhole welding

Joints intended for welding frequently show variations in geometry and position, for which it is unfortunately not possible to apply a single set of operating parameters to ensure constant quality. The cause of this difficulty lies in a number of factors, including inaccurate joint preparation and joint fit up, tack welds, as well as thermal distortion of the workpiece. In plasma arc keyhole welding of butt joints, deviations in the gap width may cause weld defects such as an incomplete weld bead, excessive penetration and burn through. Manual adjustment of welding parameters to compensate for variations in the gap width is very difficult, and unsatisfactory weld quality is often obtained. In this study a control system for plasma arc keyhole welding has been developed and used to study the effects of the real time control of welding parameters on gap tolerance during welding of austenitic stainless steel AISI 304L. The welding tests demonstrated the beneficial effect of real time control on weld quality. Compared with welding using constant parameters, the maximum tolerable gap width with an acceptable weld quality was 47% higher when using the real time controlled parameters for a plate thickness of 5 mm. In addition, burn through occurred with significantly larger gap widths when parameters were controlled in real time. Increased gap tolerance enables joints to be prepared and fit up less accurately, saving time and preparation costs for welding. In addition to the control system, a novel technique for back face monitoring is described in this study. The test results showed that the technique could be successfully applied for penetration monitoring when welding non magnetic materials. The results also imply that it is possible to measure the dimensions of the plasma efflux or weld root, and use this information in a feedback control system and, thus, maintain the required weld quality.

Berry polyphenol absorption and the effect of northern berries on metabolism, ectopic fat accumulation, and associated diseases

The prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes has increased at an alarming rate in developed countries. It seems in the light of current knowledge that metabolic syndrome may not develop at all without NAFLD, and NAFLD is estimated to be as common as metabolic syndrome in western population (23 % occurrence). Fat in the liver is called ectopic fat, which is triacylglycerols within the cells of non-adipose tissue. Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) values correlate positively with liver fat proportions, and increased activity of ALT predicts type 2 diabetes independently from obesity. Berries, high in natural bioactive compounds, have indicated the potential to reduce the risk of obesity-related diseases. Ectopic fat induces common endocrine excretion of adipose tissue resulting in the overproduction of inflammatory markers, which further induce insulin resistance by multiple mechanisms. Insulin resistance inducing hyperinsulinemia and lipolysis in adipocytes increases the concentration of free fatty acids and consequently causes further fat accumulation in hepatocytes. Polyphenolic fractions of berries have been shown to reverse inflammatory reaction cascades in in vitro and animal studies, and moreover to decrease ectopic fat accumulation. The aim of this thesis was to explore the role of northern berries in obesity-related diseases. The absorption and metabolism of selected berry polyphenols, flavonol glycosides and anthocyanins, was investigated in humans, and metabolites of the studied compounds were identified in plasma and urine samples (I, II). Further, the effects of berries on the risk factors of metabolic syndrome were studied in clinical intervention trials (III, IV), and the different fractions of sea buckthorn berry were tested for their ability to reduce postprandial glycemia and insulinemia after high-glucose meal in a postprandial study with humans (V). The marked impact of mixed berries on plasma ALT values (III), as well as indications of the positive effects of sea buckthorn, its fractions and bilberry on omental adiposity and adhesion molecules (IV) were observed. In study V, sea buckthorn and its polyphenol fractions had a promising effect on potprandial metabolism after high-glucose meal. In the literature review, the possible mechanisms behind the observed effects have been discussed with a special emphasis on ectopic fat accumulation. The literature review indicated that especially tannins and flavonoids have shown potential in suppressing diverse reaction cascades related to systemic inflammation, ectopic fat accumulation and insulin resistance development.

It all comes back to you

Soitinnus: big band.

FAT-luokkien määritys hitsatuille levyliitoksille käyttämällä lineaarisen murtumismekaniikan särönkasvun simulointia

Työssä tutkittiin hitsattujen levyliitosten väsymiskestävyyden mitoitusarvoja. Hitsien väsymiskestävyyden mitoitusarvot määritettiin lineaarista murtumismekaniikkaa soveltavalla 2D FEM-laskentaohjelmalla. Murtumismekaanisen laskennan tuloksista määriteltiin, eri liitosgeometrioiden ja kuormitustyyppien mukaisia, nimellisen jännityksen väsymismitoitusmenetelmää vastaavia FAT-luokkia, joissa on huomioitu rakenteellinen jännitys hitsiä vastaan kohtisuorassa suunnassa. Tutkittujen liitosten geometriat olivat pääsääntöisesti poikkeavia mitoitusstandardien ja ohjeiden sisältämistä taulukkotapauksista. Laskennassa otettiin huomioon hitsien liittymiskulma perusaineeseen, rajaviivan pyöristykset ja vajaa hitsautumissyvyys. Kuormitustyyppien vaihtelua tutkittiin rakenteellisen jännityksen taivutusosuuden muutoksilla ja kuormaa kantavien X-liitosten risteävien kuormituksien suhteellisilla suuruuksilla. Väsymiskestävyydet määritettiin kuormituskohtaisille kalvo- ja taivutusjännityksille sekä näiden jännitysjakaumien keskiarvoille. Työssä saatuja FAT-luokkia voidaan hyödyntää vastaavien geometrioiden ja kuormitusten yhteydessä, sekä interpoloimalla myös tuloksien väliarvoissa. Työssä käytetyillä menetelmillä voidaan parantaa nimellisen jännityksen mitoitusmenetelmän tarkkuutta ja laajentaa sitä koskemaan myös taulukkotapausten ulkopuolisia liitoksia. Työn tuloksissa on esitetty FAT-luokkia T-, X- ja päittäisliitoksille ja näiden eri kuormitusyhdistelmille.

Recovery of carboxylic acids from aqueous streams by extraction and back extraction

Separation of carboxylic acids from aqueous streams is an important part of their manufacturing process. The aqueous solutions are usually dilute containing less than 10 % acids. Separation by distillation is difficult as the boiling points of acids are only marginally higher than that of water. Because of this distillation is not only difficult but also expensive due to the evaporation of large amounts of water. Carboxylic acids have traditionally been precipitated as calcium salts. The yields of these processes are usually relatively low and the chemical costs high. Especially the decomposition of calcium salts with sulfuric acid produces large amounts of calcium sulfate sludge. Solvent extraction has been studied as an alternative method for recovery of carboxylic acids. Solvent extraction is based on mixing of two immiscible liquids and the transfer of the wanted components form one liquid to another due to equilibrium difference. In the case of carboxylic acids, the acids are transferred from aqueous phase to organic solvent due to physical and chemical interactions. The acids and the extractant form complexes which are soluble in the organic phase. The extraction efficiency is affected by many factors, for instance initial acid concentration, type and concentration of the extractant, pH, temperature and extraction time. In this paper, the effects of initial acid concentration, type of extractant and temperature on extraction efficiency were studied. As carboxylic acids are usually the products of the processes, they are wanted to be recovered. Hence the acids have to be removed from the organic phase after the extraction. The removal of acids from the organic phase also regenerates the extractant which can be then recycled in the process. The regeneration of the extractant was studied by back-extracting i.e. stripping the acids form the organic solution into diluent sodium hydroxide solution. In the solvent regeneration, the regenerability of different extractants and the effect of initial acid concentration and temperature were studied.