A simulation model of the optimal maintenance strategy: conceptual agent-based approach

In this Master’s thesis agent-based modeling has been used to analyze maintenance strategy related phenomena. The main research question that has been answered was: what does the agent-based model made for this study tell us about how different maintenance strategy decisions affect profitability of equipment owners and maintenance service providers? Thus, the main outcome of this study is an analysis of how profitability can be increased in industrial maintenance context. To answer that question, first, a literature review of maintenance strategy, agent-based modeling and maintenance modeling and optimization was conducted. This review provided the basis for making the agent-based model. Making the model followed a standard simulation modeling procedure. With the simulation results from the agent-based model the research question was answered. Specifically, the results of the modeling and this study are: (1) optimizing the point in which a machine is maintained increases profitability for the owner of the machine and also the maintainer with certain conditions; (2) time-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a zero-sum game between the parties; (3) value-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a win-win game between the parties, if the owners of the machines share a substantial amount of their value to the maintainers; and (4) error in machine condition measurement is a critical parameter to optimizing maintenance strategy, and there is real systemic value in having more accurate machine condition measurement systems.

Improving Transportation and Warehousing Efficiency with Simulation-Based Decision Support Systems

Transportation and warehousing are large and growing sectors in the society, and their efficiency is of high importance. Transportation also has a large share of global carbondioxide emissions, which are one the leading causes of anthropogenic climate warming. Various countries have agreed to decrease their carbon emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. Transportation is the only sector where emissions have steadily increased since the 1990s, which highlights the importance of transportation efficiency. The efficiency of transportation and warehousing can be improved with the help of simulations, but models alone are not sufficient. This research concentrates on the use of simulations in decision support systems. Three main simulation approaches are used in logistics: discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics, and agent-based modeling. However, individual simulation approaches have weaknesses of their own. Hybridization (combining two or more approaches) can improve the quality of the models, as it allows using a different method to overcome the weakness of one method. It is important to choose the correct approach (or a combination of approaches) when modeling transportation and warehousing issues. If an inappropriate method is chosen (this can occur if the modeler is proficient in only one approach or the model specification is not conducted thoroughly), the simulation model will have an inaccurate structure, which in turn will lead to misleading results. This issue can further escalate, as the decision-maker may assume that the presented simulation model gives the most useful results available, even though the whole model can be based on a poorly chosen structure. In this research it is argued that simulation- based decision support systems need to take various issues into account to make a functioning decision support system. The actual simulation model can be constructed using any (or multiple) approach, it can be combined with different optimization modules, and there needs to be a proper interface between the model and the user. These issues are presented in a framework, which simulation modelers can use when creating decision support systems. In order for decision-makers to fully benefit from the simulations, the user interface needs to clearly separate the model and the user, but at the same time, the user needs to be able to run the appropriate runs in order to analyze the problems correctly. This study recommends that simulation modelers should start to transfer their tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. This would greatly benefit the whole simulation community and improve the quality of simulation-based decision support systems as well. More studies should also be conducted by using hybrid models and integrating simulations with Graphical Information Systems.

Agent-based management systems for many-core platforms : rigorous design and efficient implementation

Due to various advantages such as flexibility, scalability and updatability, software intensive systems are increasingly embedded in everyday life. The constantly growing number of functions executed by these systems requires a high level of performance from the underlying platform. The main approach to incrementing performance has been the increase of operating frequency of a chip. However, this has led to the problem of power dissipation, which has shifted the focus of research to parallel and distributed computing. Parallel many-core platforms can provide the required level of computational power along with low power consumption. On the one hand, this enables parallel execution of highly intensive applications. With their computational power, these platforms are likely to be used in various application domains: from home use electronics (e.g., video processing) to complex critical control systems. On the other hand, the utilization of the resources has to be efficient in terms of performance and power consumption. However, the high level of on-chip integration results in the increase of the probability of various faults and creation of hotspots leading to thermal problems. Additionally, radiation, which is frequent in space but becomes an issue also at the ground level, can cause transient faults. This can eventually induce a faulty execution of applications. Therefore, it is crucial to develop methods that enable efficient as well as resilient execution of applications. The main objective of the thesis is to propose an approach to design agentbased systems for many-core platforms in a rigorous manner. When designing such a system, we explore and integrate various dynamic reconfiguration mechanisms into agents functionality. The use of these mechanisms enhances resilience of the underlying platform whilst maintaining performance at an acceptable level. The design of the system proceeds according to a formal refinement approach which allows us to ensure correct behaviour of the system with respect to postulated properties. To enable analysis of the proposed system in terms of area overhead as well as performance, we explore an approach, where the developed rigorous models are transformed into a high-level implementation language. Specifically, we investigate methods for deriving fault-free implementations from these models into, e.g., a hardware description language, namely VHDL.

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

From network pictures to network insight in solution business – the role of internal communication

Operating in business-to-business markets requires an in-depth understanding on business networks. Actions and reactions made to compete in markets are fundamentally based on managers‘ subjective perceptions of the network. However, an amalgamation of these individual perceptions, termed a network picture, to a common company level shared understanding on that network, known as network insight, is found to be a substantial challenge for companies. A company‘s capability to enhance common network insight is even argued to lead competitive advantage. Especially companies with value creating logics that require wide comprehension of and collaborating in networks, such as solution business, are necessitated to develop advanced network insight. According to the extant literature, dispersed pieces of atomized network pictures can be unified to a common network insight through a process of amalgamation that comprises barriers/drivers of multilateral exchange, manifold rationality, and recursive time. However, the extant body of literature appears to lack an understanding on the role of internal communication in the development of network insight. Nonetheless, the extant understanding on the amalgamation process indicates that internal communication plays a substantial role in the development of company level network insight. The purpose of the present thesis is to enhance understanding on internal communication in the amalgamation of network pictures to develop network insight in the solution business setting, which was chosen to represent business-to-business value creating logic that emphasizes the capability to understand and utilize networks. Thus, in solution business the role of succeeding in the amalgamation process is expected to emphasize. The study combines qualitative and quantitative research by means of various analytical methods including multiple case analysis, simulation, and social network analysis. Approaching the nascent research topic with differing perspectives and means provides a broader insight on the phenomenon. The study provides empirical evidence from Finnish business-to-business companies which operate globally. The empirical data comprise interviews (n=28) with managers of three case companies. In addition the data includes a questionnaire (n=23) collected mainly for the purpose of social network analysis. In addition, the thesis includes a simulation study more specifically achieved by means of agent based modeling. The findings of the thesis shed light on the role of internal communication in the amalgamation process, contributing to the emergent discussion of network insights and thus to the industrial marketing research. In addition, the thesis increases understanding on internal communication in the change process to solution business, a supplier‘s internal communication in its matrix organization structure during a project sales process, key barriers and drivers that influence internal communication in project sales networks, perceived power within industrial project sales, and the revisioning of network pictures. According to the findings, internal communication is found to play a substantial role in the amalgamation process. First, it is suggested that internal communication is a base of multilateral exchange. Second, it is suggested that internal communication intensifies and maintains manifold rationality. Third, internal communication is needed to explicate the usually differing time perspectives of others and thus it is suggested that internal communication has role as the explicator of recursive time. Furthermore, the role of an efficient amalgamation process is found to be emphasized in solutions business as it requires a more advanced network insight for cross-functional collaboration. Finally, the thesis offers several managerial implications for industrial suppliers to enhance the amalgamation process when operating in solution business.

On advancing business intelligence in the electricity retail market

In recent decades, business intelligence (BI) has gained momentum in real-world practice. At the same time, business intelligence has evolved as an important research subject of Information Systems (IS) within the decision support domain. Today’s growing competitive pressure in business has led to increased needs for real-time analytics, i.e., so called real-time BI or operational BI. This is especially true with respect to the electricity production, transmission, distribution, and retail business since the law of physics determines that electricity as a commodity is nearly impossible to be stored economically, and therefore demand-supply needs to be constantly in balance. The current power sector is subject to complex changes, innovation opportunities, and technical and regulatory constraints. These range from low carbon transition, renewable energy sources (RES) development, market design to new technologies (e.g., smart metering, smart grids, electric vehicles, etc.), and new independent power producers (e.g., commercial buildings or households with rooftop solar panel installments, a.k.a. Distributed Generation). Among them, the ongoing deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) has profound impacts on the electricity retail market. From the view point of BI research, the AMI is enabling real-time or near real-time analytics in the electricity retail business. Following Design Science Research (DSR) paradigm in the IS field, this research presents four aspects of BI for efficient pricing in a competitive electricity retail market: (i) visual data-mining based descriptive analytics, namely electricity consumption profiling, for pricing decision-making support; (ii) real-time BI enterprise architecture for enhancing management’s capacity on real-time decision-making; (iii) prescriptive analytics through agent-based modeling for price-responsive demand simulation; (iv) visual data-mining application for electricity distribution benchmarking. Even though this study is from the perspective of the European electricity industry, particularly focused on Finland and Estonia, the BI approaches investigated can: (i) provide managerial implications to support the utility’s pricing decision-making; (ii) add empirical knowledge to the landscape of BI research; (iii) be transferred to a wide body of practice in the power sector and BI research community.

Modeling and Simulation ofReal-Time System as a Tool to Improve Capacity Management - Case Fenix

Tämän tutkimustyön kohteena on TietoEnator Oy:n kehittämän Fenix-tietojärjestelmän kapasiteettitarpeen ennustaminen. Työn tavoitteena on tutustua Fenix-järjestelmän eri osa-alueisiin, löytää tapa eritellä ja mallintaa eri osa-alueiden vaikutus järjestelmän kuormitukseen ja selvittää alustavasti mitkä parametrit vaikuttavat kyseisten osa-alueiden luomaan kuormitukseen. Osa tätä työtä on tutkia eri vaihtoehtoja simuloinnille ja selvittää eri vaihtoehtojen soveltuvuus monimutkaisten järjestelmien mallintamiseen. Kerätyn tiedon pohjaltaluodaan järjestelmäntietovaraston kuormitusta kuvaava simulaatiomalli. Hyödyntämällä mallista saatua tietoa ja tuotantojärjestelmästä mitattua tietoa mallia kehitetään vastaamaan yhä lähemmin todellisen järjestelmän toimintaa. Mallista tarkastellaan esimerkiksi simuloitua järjestelmäkuormaa ja jonojen käyttäytymistä. Tuotantojärjestelmästä mitataan eri kuormalähteiden käytösmuutoksia esimerkiksi käyttäjämäärän ja kellonajan suhteessa. Tämän työn tulosten on tarkoitus toimia pohjana myöhemmin tehtävälle jatkotutkimukselle, jossa osa-alueiden parametrisointia tarkennetaan lisää, mallin kykyä kuvata todellista järjestelmää tehostetaanja mallin laajuutta kasvatetaan.

Data Collection Agent Framework

Ohjelmistoteollisuudessa pitkiä ja vaikeita kehityssyklejä voidaan helpottaa käyttämällä hyväksi ohjelmistokehyksiä (frameworks). Ohjelmistokehykset edustavat kokoelmaa luokkia, jotka tarjoavat yleisiä ratkaisuja tietyn ongelmakentän tarpeisiin vapauttaen ohjelmistokehittäjät keskittymään sovelluskohtaisiin vaatimuksiin. Hyvin suunniteltujen ohjelmistokehyksien käyttö lisää suunnitteluratkaisujen sekä lähdekoodin uudelleenkäytettävyyttä enemmän kuin mikään muu suunnittelulähestymistapa. Tietyn kohdealueen tietämys voidaan tallentaa ohjelmistokehyksiin, joista puolestaan voidaan erikoistaa viimeisteltyjä ohjelmistotuotteita. Tässä diplomityössä kuvataan ohjelmistoagentteihin (software agents) perustuvaa ohjelmistokehyksen suunnittelua toteutusta. Pääpaino työssä on vaatimusmäärittelyä vastaavan suunnitelman sekä toteutuksen kuvaaminen ohjelmistokehykselle, josta voidaan erikoistaa erilaiseen tiedonkeruuseen kykeneviä ohjelmistoja Internet ympäristöön. Työn kokeellisessa osuudessa esitellään myös esimerkkisovellus, joka perustuu työssä kehitettyyn ohjelmistokehykseen.

Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Optimizing last mile delivery using public transport with multiagent based control

The majority of research work carried out in the field of Operations-Research uses methods and algorithms to optimize the pick-up and delivery problem. Most studies aim to solve the vehicle routing problem, to accommodate optimum delivery orders, vehicles etc. This paper focuses on green logistics approach, where existing Public Transport infrastructure capability of a city is used for the delivery of small and medium sized packaged goods thus, helping improve the situation of urban congestion and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. It carried out a study to investigate the feasibility of the proposed multi-agent based simulation model, for efficiency of cost, time and energy consumption. Multimodal Dijkstra Shortest Path algorithm and Nested Monte Carlo Search have been employed for a two-phase algorithmic approach used for generation of time based cost matrix. The quality of the tour is dependent on the efficiency of the search algorithm implemented for plan generation and route planning. The results reveal a definite advantage of using Public Transportation over existing delivery approaches in terms of energy efficiency.

Ohutlevytuotteenvalmistusteknisten piirteiden tunnistaminen ja käyttö suunnittelun apuna

Suunnittelu- ja valmistustoiminnot ovat eriytymässä myös ohutlevyteollisuudessa. Kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi, valmistusta siirretään alihankkijoille maihin, jossa työvoima on halpaa ja suuret markkinat lähellä, tuotekehityksen ja suunnittelun jäädessä Suomeen tai muualle Länsi-Eurooppaan. Tällöin vanhan lokaalin toimintamallin synergiaedut eivät ole enää mahdollisia ja tuotteen valmistettavuuden arviointi, laadunhallinta ja komponenttien yhteensopivuuden varmistaminen on erittäin haasteellista. Tässä tutkimuksessa etsittiin uuden toimintamallin tuomiin haasteisiin vastauksia piirrepohjaisesta mallintamisesta. Tavoitteen mukaisesti, tutkimuksessa tunnistettiin ohutlevytuotteen valmistusteknilliset piirteet ja luotiin niiden mukainen piirrekaavio. Piirteiden tunnistus vaati tutkimustyötä sekä nykyaikaisten suunnittelumetodien että valmistusmenetelmien ja ohutlevymateriaalien parissa. Lisäksitarkasteltiin, millaisia vaikutuksia piirteillä on tuotteen valmistettavuuteen ja miten nämä tulee huomioida tuotteen suunnittelussa.

Tuotantofilosofiat

Työssä esitellään käytetyimpiä tuotantofilosofioita. Tuotantofilosofia on hyvin laaja käsite ja sen vuoksi myös jotkin esiteltävistä menetelmistä ovat hyvin kaukana toisistaan. Työ koostuu teoriaosiosta, jossa on esitelty kukin tuotantofilosofia ja lopuksi johtopäätöksiä-osiossa käsitellään sitä, kuinka menetelmät liittyvät toisiinsa. Työssä esitellään JIT/JOT-tuotanto, Lean-tuotanto, Monozukuri, Modulointi, Standardointi, Strategiatyö, Six Sigma, TQM, TPM, QFD, MFD, Simulointi, Digitaalinen valmistus, DFX ja ns. uudet tuotantofilosofiat. Eri menetelmistä löytyvää lähdemateriaalia on tarjolla monipuolisesti, josta johtuen menetelmistä on voitu esitellä vain pääpiirteet. Tuotantofilosofioiden avulla voidaan saavuttaa monia eri asioita. Osa menetelmistä on luotu tuotannon tehostamiseksi ja yksinkertaistamiseksi, osa puolestaan lisää tuotannon tai koko yrityksen laatutasoa ja osa puolestaan helpottaa tuotteiden suunnittelu-työtä. Moni esiteltävistä filosofioista ei istu yksinomaan yhteen edellä mainituista kategorioista vaan kattaa laajempia alueita pitäen sisällään jopa kaikkia kolmea mainittua tulosta. Näiden lisäksi työssä on esitelty lyhyesti uusia tuotantofilosofioita, jotka ovat hieman irrallisia kokonaisuuksia verrattuna muihin työssä esiteltäviin filosofioihin. Työn tarkoituksena on auttaa hahmottamaan suurta kokonaisuutta jonka tuotantofilosofiat tuottavat. On tärkeää osata hahmottaa filosofioiden riippuvuus toisistaan ja se, että otettaessa käyttöön jotain tuotantofilosofiaa, tarkoittaa se myös mahdollisesti monen muunkin asian huomioonottamista. Tätä näkökantaa selvennetään johtopäätöksissä.

Disruptive innovations at the bottom of the pyramid : can they impact the sustainability of today´s top companies?

Due to the different dynamics required for organizations to serve the emerging market which contains billions of people at the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) coupled with the increasing desire for organizations to grow and be more multinational, organizations need to continually innovate. However, the tendency for large and established companies to ignore the BOP market and rather focus on existing markets, gives an indication of the existence of a vulnerability that potentially disruptive innovations from the BOP will not be recognized in good time for a counter measure. This can be deduced from the fact that good management practice advocates that managers should learn and listen to their customers. Therefore majority of the large existing companies continually focus on their main customer/market with sustaining innovations which leaves aspiring new entrants with an underserved BOP market to experiment with. With the aid of research interviews and an agent-based model (ABM) simulation, this thesis examines the attributes of BOP innovations that can qualify them as disruptive and the possibilities of tangible disruptive innovations arising from the bottom of the pyramid and their underlying drivers. The thesis Furthermore, examines the associated impact of such innovations on the future sustainability of established large companies that are operating in the developed world, particularly those with a primary focus which is targeted towards the market at the top of the pyramid (TOP). Additionally, with the use of a scenario planning model, the research provides an evaluation of the possible evolution and potential sustainability impacts that could emerge, from the interplay of innovations at the two pyramidal market levels and the chosen market focus of organizations – TOP or BOP. Using four scenario quadrants, the thesis demonstrates the resulting possibilities from the interaction between the rate of innovations and the segment focused on by organizations with disruptive era characterizing the paradigm shift quadrant. Furthermore, a mathematical model and two theoretical propositions are developed for further research. As recommendations, the thesis also extends the ambidextrous organizational theory, business model innovation and portfolio diversification as plausible recommendations to limit a catastrophic impact, resulting from disruptive innovations.

On Energy Efficient Computing Platforms

In accordance with the Moore's law, the increasing number of on-chip integrated transistors has enabled modern computing platforms with not only higher processing power but also more affordable prices. As a result, these platforms, including portable devices, work stations and data centres, are becoming an inevitable part of the human society. However, with the demand for portability and raising cost of power, energy efficiency has emerged to be a major concern for modern computing platforms. As the complexity of on-chip systems increases, Network-on-Chip (NoC) has been proved as an efficient communication architecture which can further improve system performances and scalability while reducing the design cost. Therefore, in this thesis, we study and propose energy optimization approaches based on NoC architecture, with special focuses on the following aspects. As the architectural trend of future computing platforms, 3D systems have many bene ts including higher integration density, smaller footprint, heterogeneous integration, etc. Moreover, 3D technology can signi cantly improve the network communication and effectively avoid long wirings, and therefore, provide higher system performance and energy efficiency. With the dynamic nature of on-chip communication in large scale NoC based systems, run-time system optimization is of crucial importance in order to achieve higher system reliability and essentially energy efficiency. In this thesis, we propose an agent based system design approach where agents are on-chip components which monitor and control system parameters such as supply voltage, operating frequency, etc. With this approach, we have analysed the implementation alternatives for dynamic voltage and frequency scaling and power gating techniques at different granularity, which reduce both dynamic and leakage energy consumption. Topologies, being one of the key factors for NoCs, are also explored for energy saving purpose. A Honeycomb NoC architecture is proposed in this thesis with turn-model based deadlock-free routing algorithms. Our analysis and simulation based evaluation show that Honeycomb NoCs outperform their Mesh based counterparts in terms of network cost, system performance as well as energy efficiency.