Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Effect of emotions on consumer decision-making in a high involvement product adoption context

This thesis was written in order participate in the emergent discussion on the role of emotions in consumer decision-making. The goal of the thesis was to find out which emotions affect consumer decision-making, how these emotions relate to traditional process models of consumer decision-making, and how emotions and other factors affect consumer decision-making. The thesis is placed into a context of high involvement product adoption. The empirical research was conducted according to a qualitative methodology, which combined video diaries and face-to-face or Skype interviews as data collection methods. The case product category was dancing poles, and four women participated in the study. The central results indicate that emotion and cognition walk hand in hand in consumer decision-making, that consumers experience a variety of emotions during a decision-making process, and that emotions have an important effect on consumer decision-making and consumer behavior.

Budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities

This master’s thesis examines budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities; an issue that has not received a lot of attention in the academic literature. Furthermore, this thesis investigates whether the current budgeting decision-making practices could be improved by using a new kind of budget decision-making tool that is based on presenting multiple investment or divestment alternatives simultaneously to the decision makers as a frontier, rather than one by one. In the empirical part of the thesis, the results from three case interviews are introduced in order to answer the research questions of the study. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that there is a need for the presented budgeting decision-making tool in Finnish municipalities. The current routine is seen as good even though the interviewees would warmly welcome the alternative method that would function as a linkage be-tween strategy and the budget. The results also indicate that even though municipalities are left with a lot of room in their budgeting decision-making routine, the routine closely, though not always purposely, follows given guidelines and legislation. The major problem in the current practices seems to be the lack of understanding, as the decision-makers find it hard fully to understand the multiplicative effects of the budget-related decisions.

Decision making and decision support in service systems

This thesis is a literature study that develops a conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems. The study is related to the Ä-Logi, Intelligent Service Logic for Welfare Sector Services research project, and the objective of the study is to develop the necessary theoretical framework to enable further research based on the research project results and material. The study first examines the concepts of service and service systems, focusing on understanding the characteristics of service systems and their implications for decision making and decision support to provide the basis for the development of the conceptual model. Based on the identified service system characteristics, an integrated model of service systems is proposed that views service systems through a number of interrelated perspectives that each offer different, but complementary, implications on the nature of decision making and the requirements for decision support in service systems. Based on the model, it is proposed that different types of decision making contexts can be identified in service systems that may be dominated by different types of decision making processes and where different types of decision support may be required, depending on the characteristics of the decision making context and its decision making processes. The proposed conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems examines the characteristics of decision making contexts and processes in service systems, and their typical requirements for decision support. First, a characterization of different types of decision making contexts in service systems is proposed based on the Cynefin framework and the identified service system characteristics. Second, the nature of decision making processes in service systems is proposed to be dual, with both rational and naturalistic decision making processes existing in service systems, and having an important and complementary role in decision making in service systems. Finally, a characterization of typical requirements for decision support in service systems is proposed that examines the decision support requirements associated with different types of decision making processes in characteristically different types of decision making contexts. It is proposed that decision support for the decision making processes that are based on rational decision making can be based on organizational decision support models, while decision support for the decision making processes that are based on naturalistic decision making should be based on supporting the decision makers’ situation awareness and facilitating the development of their tacit knowledge of the system and its tasks. Based on the proposed conceptual model a further research process is proposed. The study additionally provides a number of new perspectives on the characteristics of service systems, and the nature of decision making and requirements for decision support in service systems that can potentially provide a basis for further discussion and research, and support the practice alike.

Before internationalisation : reflections of lateral rigidity on managerial decision making

The purpose of the study is to analyse lateral rigidity in the framework of pre-internationalisation to find out its reflections on managerial decision making. The interest of the study lies in the intersection of the meaningful but relatively stagnant concept of lateral rigidity, and the pre-internationalisation phase of companies that has received only a limited amount of research attention. The theoretical basis for the study is drawn from managerial decision making and internationalisation literatures. Firstly, the study aims to define the concept of lateral rigidity in order to secondly find out how it influences managers’ pre-internationalisation decision making. The study is theoretical in nature, and is based solely on literature examination. Concept analysis method is used to determine the attributes of lateral rigidity for the purpose of recognising the concept in the pre-internationalisation framework. The attributes that are found to comprise lateral rigidity are culture, know-how, uncertainty and attitude. Furthermore, these attributes are more specifically found to consist of environmental, personal and operational matters. Through the analysis of the pre-internationalisation literature it is discovered that all the attributes appear there, and present a variety of influences on pre-internationalisation decision making that can be characterised as being negative. The study finds that culture influences managers’ decision making via subjective reasoning and behaviour that stem from a domestic inclination, and via unfamiliarity with foreign markets. Against assumption, home cultural factors, e.g. values and customs, do not appear to have an influence. Know-how is found to influence decision making via managers’ previous experiences, subjective abiding perceptions, and the usage of previous operation patterns. Uncertainty, then again, influences managers’ risk perception, unfamiliarity avoidance, and the scope of potential international operations. Attitude is found to have a robust influence on managerial decision making via the usage of familiar processes and decision regimes, subjective preference of convention, and plausible results of operations. Ergo, the effects of lateral rigidity on managers show to represent an encumbrance in the pre-internationalisation phase; even though internationalisation would take place, the related decisions and actions are highly constrained. Especially the subjectivity of managers is seen to have a meaningful role in the decision making process.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Impact of Word-of-Mouth on consumer decision-making: An information processing perspective in the context of a high-involvement service

This doctoral study conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of Word-of-Mouth (WOM) on marketing-relevant outcomes such as attitudes and consumer choice, during a high-involvement and complex service decision. Due to its importance to decisionmaking, WOM has attracted interest from academia and practitioners for decades. Consumers are known to discuss products and services with one another. These discussions help consumers to form an evaluative opinion, as WOM reduces perceived risk, simplifies complexity, and increases the confidence of consumers in decisionmaking. These discussions are also highly impactful as WOM is a trustworthy source of information, since it is independent from the company or brand. In responding to the calls for more research on what happens after WOM information is received, and how it affects marketing-relevant outcomes, this dissertation extends prior WOM literature by investigating how consumers process information in a highinvolvement service domain, in particular higher-education. Further, the dissertation studies how the form of WOM influences consumer choice. The research contributes to WOM and services marketing literature by developing and empirically testing a framework for information processing and studying the long-term effects of WOM. The results of the dissertation are presented in five research publications. The publications are based on longitudinal data. The research leads to the development of a proposed theoretical framework for the processing of WOM, based on theories from social psychology. The framework is specifically focused on service decisions, as it takes into account evaluation difficulty through the complex nature of choice criteria associated with service purchase decisions. Further, other gaps in current WOM literature are taken into account by, for example, examining how the source of WOM and service values affects the processing mechanism. The research also provides implications for managers aiming to trigger favorable WOM through marketing efforts, such as advertising and testimonials. The results provide suggestions on how to design these marketing efforts by taking into account the mechanism through which information is processed, or the form of social influence.

Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

Summary

Customer Research on a Group of European Book Publishers: Trends, Modes of Operation and Decision-Making Processes

Työn päätarkoitus oli tuottaa Stora Enson käyttöön tietoa kirjakustantajista, yhdestä yrityksen asiakassegmentistä. Yritys oli kiinnostunut useista asioista, jotka koskivat asiakkaita ja heidän mielipiteitään. Tarkoitus on, että Stora Enso voi käyttää tutkimuksella koottua tietoa oman toimintansa suunnittelun tukena. Kerätty sekundääritieto esittelee eurooppalaisen kirjakustantamisen nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta sekä teorioita, jotka tukevat tutkittuja aihealueita. Primääritieto kerättiin henkilökohtaisilla haastatteluilla. Otanta koostui kymmenestä kirjakustantajasta, jotka toimivat Suomessa sekä Stora Enson päämarkkina-alueilla. Tutkimus tarjoaa päivitetyn kuvauksen kirjakustantamisesta. Haastateltavien mielipiteet alan trendeistä olivat yhteneviä yleisen mielipiteen kanssa, eikä suuria mielipide-eroavaisuuksia havaittu. Kustantajien toimintatapoja ja päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monimutkaisiksi, koska useat asiat vaikuttavat kirjan syntyyn ja paperin ostoprosessiin. Lisäksi tutkimus esittelee haastateltavien mielipiteitä paperin merkityksestä heidän liiketoiminnassaan.

Representations of work and worker in the three generations of knowledge management. Critical Discourse Analysis of selected texts.

The thesis studies the representations of different elements of contemporary work as present in Knowledge Management (KM). KM is approached as management discourse that is seen to affect and influence managerial practices in organizations. As representatives of KM discourse four journal articles are analyzed, using the methodology of Critical Discourse Analysis and the framework of Critical Management Studies, with a special emphasis on the question of structure and agency. The results of the analysis reveal that structural elements such as information technology and organizational structures are strongly present in the most influential KM representations, making their improvement also a desirable course of action for managers. In contrast agentic properties are not in a central role, they are subjugated to structural constraints of varying kind and degree. The thesis claims that one such constraint is KM discourse itself, influencing managerial and organizational choices and decision making. The thesis concludes that the way human beings are represented, studied and treated in management studies such as KM needs to be re-examined. Pro gradu-tutkielmassa analysoidaan työhön ja sen tekijään liittyviä representaatioita Tietojohtamisen kirjallisuudessa. Tietojohtamista tarkastellaan liikkeenjohdollisena diskurssina, jolla nähdään olevan vaikutus organisaatioiden päätöksentekoon ja toimintaan. Tutkielmassa analysoidaan neljä Tietojohtamisen tieteellistä artikkelia, käyttäen metodina kriittistä diskurssianalyysiä. Tutkielman viitekehyksenä on kriittinen liikkeenjohdon tutkimus. Lisäksi työssä pohditaan kysymystä rakenteen ja toimijan välisestä vuorovaikutuksesta. Tutkielman analyysi paljastaa, että tietojohtamisen vaikutusvaltaisimmat representaatiot painottavat rakenteellisia tekijöitä, kuten informaatioteknologiaa ja organisaatiorakenteita. Tämän seurauksena mm. panostukset em. tekijöihin nähdään organisaatioissa toivottavana toimintana. Vastaavasti representaatiot jotka painottavat yksilöitä ja toimintaa ovat em. tekijöille alisteisessa asemassa. Tapaa, jolla yksilöitä kuvataan ja käsitellään Tietojohtamisen diskurssissa, tulisikin laajentaa ja monipuolistaa.

IN DUBIO PRO NATURA? A Philosophical Analysis of the Precautionary Principle in Environmental and Health Risk Governance

In this book, I apply a philosophical approach to study the precautionary principle in environmental (and health) risk decision-making. The principle says that unacceptable environmental and health risks should be anticipated, and they ought to be forestalled before the damage comes to fruition even if scientific understanding of the risks is inadequate. The study consists of introductory chapters, summary and seven original publications which aim at explicating the principle, critically analysing the debate on the principle, and constructing a basis for the well-founded use of the principle. Papers I-V present the main thesis of this research. In the two last papers, the discussion is widened to new directions. The starting question is how well the currently embraced precautionary principle stands up to critical philosophical scrutiny. The approach employed is analytical: mainly conceptual, argumentative and ethical. The study draws upon Anglo-American style philosophy on the one hand, and upon sources of law as well as concrete cases and decision-making practices at the European Union level and in its member countries on the other. The framework is environmental (and health) risk governance, including the related law and policy. The main thesis of this study is that the debate on the precautionary principle needs to be shifted from the question of whether the principle (or its weak or strong interpretation) is well-grounded in general to questions about the theoretical plausibility and ethical and socio-political justifiability of specific understandings of the principle. The real picture of the precautionary principle is more complex than that found (i.e. presumed) in much of the current academic, political and public debate surrounding it. While certain presumptions and interpretations of the principle are found to be sound, others are theoretically flawed or include serious practical problems. The analysis discloses conceptual and ethical presumptions and elementary understandings of the precautionary principle, critically assesses current practices invoked in the name of the precautionary principle and public participation, and seeks to build bridges between precaution, engagement and philosophical ethics. Hence, it is intended to provide a sound basis upon which subsequent academic scrutiny can build.

Expertise and decision making among clinicians in investigations of alleged child sexual abuse

The purpose of the present thesis was to explore different aspects of decision making and expertise in investigations of child sexual abuse (CSA) and subsequently shed some light on the reasons for shortcomings in the investigation processes. Clinicians’ subjective attitudes as well as scientifically based knowledge concerning CSA, CSA investigation and interviewing were explored. Furthermore the clinicians’ own view on their expertise and what enhances this expertise was investigated. Also, the effects of scientific knowledge, experience and attitudes on the decision making in a case of CSA were explored. Finally, the effects of different kinds of feedback as well as experience on the ability to evaluate CSA in the light of children’s behavior and base rates were investigated. Both explorative and experimental methods were used. The purpose of Study I was to investigate whether clinicians investigating child sexual abuse (CSA) rely more on scientific knowledge or on clinical experience when evaluating their own expertise. Another goal was to check what kind of beliefs the clinicians held. The connections between these different factors were investigated. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, experience, knowledge about CSA, selfevaluated expertise and beliefs about CSA was given to social workers, child psychiatrists and psychologists working with children. The results showed that the clinicians relied more on their clinical experience than on scientific knowledge when evaluating their expertise as investigators of CSA. Furthermore, social workers possessed stronger attitudes in favor of children than the other groups, while child psychiatrists had more negative attitudes towards the criminal justice system. Male participants held less strong beliefs than female participants. The findings indicate that the education of CSA investigators should focus more on theoretical knowledge and decision making processes as well as the role of beliefs In Study II school and family counseling psychologists completed a Child Sexual Abuse Attitude and Belief Scale. Four CSA related attitude and belief subscales were identified: 1. The Disclosure subscale reflecting favoring a disclosure at any cost, 2. The Pro-Child subscale reflecting unconditional belief in children's reports, 3. The Intuition subscale reflecting favoring an intuitive approach to CSA investigations, and 4. The Anti Criminal Justice System subscale reflecting negative attitudes towards the legal system. Beliefs that were erroneous according to empirical research were analyzed separately. The results suggest that some psychologists hold extreme attitudes and many erroneous beliefs related to CSA. Some misconceptions are common. Female participants tended to hold stronger attitudes than male participants. The more training in interviewing children the participants have, the more erroneous beliefs and stronger attitudes they hold. Experience did not affect attitudes and beliefs. In Study III mental health professionals’ sensitivity to suggestive interviewing in CSA cases was explored. Furthermore, the effects of attitudes and beliefs related to CSA and experience with CSA investigations on the sensitivity to suggestive influences in the interview were investigated. Also, the effect of base rate estimates of CSA on decisions was examined. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, different aspects of clinical experience, self-evaluated expertise, beliefs and knowledge about CSA and a set of ambiguous material based on real trial documents concerning an alleged CSA case was given to child mental health professionals. The experiment was based on a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (leading questions: yes vs no) x (stereotype induction: yes vs no) x (emotional tone: pressure to respond vs no pressure to respond) x (threats and rewards: yes vs no) between-subjects factorial design, in which the suggestiveness of the methods with which the responses of the child were obtained were varied. There was an additional condition in which the material did not contain any interview transcripts. The results showed that clinicians are sensitive only to the presence of leading questions but not to the presence of other suggestive techniques. Furthermore, the clinicians were not sensitive to the possibility that suggestive techniques could have been used when no interview transcripts had been included in the trial material. Experience had an effect on the sensitivity of the clinicians only regarding leading questions. Strong beliefs related to CSA lessened the sensitivity to leading questions. Those showing strong beliefs on the belief scales used in this study were even more prone to prosecute than other participants when other suggestive influences than leading questions were present. Controversy exists regarding effects of experience and feedback on clinical decision making. In Study IV the impact of the number of handled cases and of feedback on the decisions in cases of alleged CSA was investigated. One-hundred vignettes describing cases of suspected CSA were given to students with no experience with investigating CSA. The vignettes were based on statistical data about symptoms and prevalence of CSA. According to the theoretical likelihood of CSA the children described were categorized as abused or not abused. The participants were asked to decide whether abuse had occurred. They were divided into 4 groups: one received feedback on whether their decision was right or wrong, one received information about cognitive processes involved in decision making, one received both, and one did not receive feedback at all. The results showed that participants who received feedback on their performance made more correct positive decisions and participants who got information about decision making processes made more correct negative decisions. Feedback and information combined decreased the number of correct positive decisions but increased the number of correct negative decisions. The number of read cases had in itself a positive effect on correct positive decision.

Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Managerial decision-making style : India, Bangladesh, and Finland : cultural side of the game

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