Evaluating and improving demand forecast practices for B2B and B2C sectors

Demand forecasting is one of the fundamental managerial tasks. Most companies do not know their future demands, so they have to make plans based on demand forecasts. The literature offers many methods and approaches for producing forecasts. Former literature points out that even though many forecasting methods and approaches are available, selecting a suitable approach and implementing and managing it is a complex cross-functional matter. However, it’s relatively rare that researches are focused on the differences in forecasting between consumer and industrial companies. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the potential of improving demand forecasting practices for B2B and B2C sectors in the global supply chains. Business to business (B2B) sector produces products for other manufacturing companies. On the other hand, consumer (B2C) sector provides goods for individual buyers. Usually industrial sector have a lower number of customers and closer relationships with them. The research questions of this thesis are: 1) What are the main differences and similarities in demand planning between B2B and B2C sectors? 2) How the forecast performance for industrial and consumer companies can be improved? The main methodological approach in this study is design science, where the main objective is to develop tentative solutions to real-life problems. The research data has been collected from a case company. Evaluation and improving in organizing demand forecasting can be found in three interlinked areas: 1) demand planning operational environment, 2) demand forecasting techniques, 3) demand information sharing scenarios. In this research current B2B and B2C demand practices are presented with further comparison between those two sectors. It was found that B2B and B2C sectors have significant differences in demand practices. This research partly filled the theoretical gap in understanding the difference in forecasting in consumer and industrial sectors. In all these areas, examples of managerial problems are described, and approaches for mitigating these problems are outlined.

Recovery boilers - history and future

Recovery boilers are built all over the world. The roots of recovery technology are longer than the roots of recovery boilers. But it wasn’t until the invention of recovery boilers before the Second World War that the pulping technology was revolutionalized. This led to long development of essentially the same type of equipment, culminating into units that are largest biofuel boilers in the world. Early recovery technology concentrated on chemical recovery as chemicals cost money and if one could recycle these chemicals then the profitability of pulp manufacture would improve. For pulp mills the significance of electricity generation from the recovery boiler was for long secondary. The most important design criterion for the recovery boiler was a high availability. The electricity generation in recovery boiler process can be increased by elevated main steam pressure and temperature or by higher black liquor dry solids as well as improving its steam cycle. This has been done in the modern Scandinavian units.

Effects of life cycle profits on the profitability of industrial heavy duty cranes

The goal of the thesis was to investigate how much after-sales profits a crane sale generates over the life cycle of the crane and the effects of these after-sales profits on the overall profitability of the crane. The thesis utilizes theories about life cycle costing from an equipment and service supplier’s point of view. However, instead of costs, the thesis is focused on the life cycle after-sales profits from maintenance services and spare parts provided for the sold crane. The case study approach was chosen and a total of five cranes from three different segments were investigated. An eight-step life cycle profit calculation model was developed in order to analyze the chosen cases’ life cycle profits systematically. The results of the investigation suggest that the life cycle after-sales profits are significant in value. In the case analyses they accounted for between 20% and 44% of the overall life cycle profits of the case cranes. The after-sales profits should be taken into account already in the pricing when offering a crane to a customer.

Improving reporting and internal control with process thinking - case study in a multinational corporation

The aim of this Master’s Thesis is to find applicable methods from process management literature for improving reporting and internal control in a multinational corporation. The method of analysis is qualitative and the research is conducted as a case study. Empirical data collection is carried out through interviews and participating observation. The theoretical framework is built around reporting and guidance between parent company and subsidiary, searching for means to improve them from process thinking and applicable frameworks. In the thesis, the process of intercompany reporting in the case company is modelled, and its weak points, risks, and development targets are identified. The framework of critical success factors in process improvement is utilized in assessing the development targets. Also internal control is analyzed with the tools of process thinking. As a result of this thesis, suggestions for actions improving the reporting process and internal control are made to the case company, the most essential of which are ensuring top management’s awareness and commitment to improvement, creating guidelines and tools for internal control and creating and implementing improved intercompany reporting process.

Improving the fire retardancy of extruded/coextruded wood-plastic composites

The main objective of this thesis is to study the impact of different mineral fillers and fire retardants on the reaction-to-fire properties of extruded/coextruded wood-plastic composites (WPCs). The impact of additives on the flammability properties of WPCs is studied by cone calorimetry. The studied properties are ignition time, peak heat release rate, total heat release, total smoke production, and mass loss rate. The effects of mineral fillers and fire retardants were found to vary with the type of additive, the type of additive combinations, the amount of additives, as well as the production method of the WPCs. The study shows that talc can be used to improve the properties of extruded WPCs. Especially ignition time, peak heat release rate and mass loss rate were found to be improved significantly by talc. The most significant improvement in the fire retardancy of coextruded WPCs was achieved in combinations of natural graphite and melamine. Ignition time, peak heat release rate and total smoke production were improved essentially. High increase in smoke production was found in samples where the amount of ammonium polyphosphate was 10% or higher. Coextrusion as a structural modification was found as a promising way to improve the flammability properties of composite materials in a cost-effective way.

Improving Cost-Efficiency and Reducing Environmental Impacts of Intermodal Transportation with Dry Port Concept – Major Rail Transport Corridor in Baltic Sea Region

Transportation plays a major role in the gross domestic product of various nations. There are, however, many obstacles hindering the transportation sector. Cost-efficiency along with proper delivery times, high frequency and reliability are not a straightforward task. Furthermore, environmental friendliness has increased the importance of the whole transportation sector. This development will change roles inside the transportation sector. Even now, but especially in the future, decisions regarding the transportation sector will be partly based on emission levels and other externalities originating from transportation in addition to pure transportation costs. There are different factors, which could have an impact on the transportation sector. IMO’s sulphur regulation is estimated to increase the costs of short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea. Price development of energy could change the roles of different transport modes. Higher awareness of the environmental impacts originating from transportation could also have an impact on the price level of more polluting transport modes. According to earlier research, increased inland transportation, modal shift and slowsteaming can be possible results of these changes in the transportation sector. Possible changes in the transportation sector and ways to settle potential obstacles are studied in this dissertation. Furthermore, means to improve cost-efficiency and to decrease environmental impacts originating from transportation are researched. Hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor are studied in this dissertation. Benefits and disadvantages are studied with different methodologies. These include gravitational models, which were optimized with linear integer programming, discrete-event and system dynamics simulation, an interview study and a case study. Geographical focus is on the Baltic Sea Region, but the results can be adapted to other geographical locations with discretion. Results indicate that the dry port concept has benefits, but optimization regarding the location and the amount of dry ports plays an important role. In addition, the utilization of dry ports for freight transportation should be carefully operated, since only a certain amount of total freight volume can be cost-efficiently transported through dry ports. If dry ports are created and located without proper planning, they could actually increase transportation costs and delivery times of the whole transportation system. With an optimized dry port network, transportation costs can be lowered in Finland with three to five dry ports. Environmental impacts can be lowered with up to nine dry ports. If more dry ports are added to the system, the benefits become very minor, i.e. payback time of investments becomes extremely long. Furthermore, dry port network could support major transport corridors such as Rail Baltica. Based on an analysis of statistics and interview study, there could be enough freight volume available for Rail Baltica, especially, if North-West Russia is part of the Northern end of the corridor. Transit traffic to and from Russia (especially through the Baltic States) plays a large role. It could be possible to increase transit traffic through Finland by connecting the potential Finnish dry port network and the studied transport corridor. Additionally, sulphur emission regulation is assumed to increase the attractiveness of Rail Baltica in the year 2015. Part of the transit traffic could be rerouted along Rail Baltica instead of the Baltic Sea, since the price level of sea transport could increase due to the sulphur regulation. Both, the hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor could benefit each other. The dry port network could gain more market share from Russia, but also from Central Europe, which is the other end of Rail Baltica. In addition, further Eastern countries could also be connected to achieve higher potential freight volume by rail.

Thick Section Laser Beam Welding of Structural Steels: Methods for Improving Welding Efficiency

Laser beam welding (LBW) is applicable for a wide range of industrial sectors and has a history of fifty years. However, it is considered an unusual method with applications typically limited to welding of thin sheet metal. With a new generation of high power lasers there has been a renewed interest in thick section LBW (also known as keyhole laser welding). There was a growing body of publications during 2001-2011 that indicates an increasing interest in laser welding for many industrial applications, and in last ten years, an increasing number of studies have examined the ways to increase the efficiency of the process. Expanding the thickness range and efficiency of LBW makes the process a possibility for industrial applications dealing with thick metal welding: shipbuilding, offshore structures, pipelines, power plants and other industries. The advantages provided by LBW, such as high process speed, high productivity, and low heat input, may revolutionize these industries and significantly reduce the process costs. The research to date has focused on either increasing the efficiency via optimizing process parameters, or on the process fundamentals, rather than on process and workpiece modifications. The argument of this thesis is that the efficiency of the laser beam process can be increased in a straightforward way in the workshop conditions. Throughout this dissertation, the term “efficiency” is used to refer to welding process efficiency, specifically, an increase in efficiency refers an increase in weld’s penetration depth without increasing laser power level or decreasing welding speed. These methods are: modifications of the workpiece – edge surface roughness and air gap between the joining plates; modification of the ambient conditions – local reduction of the pressure in the welding zone; modification of the welding process – preheating of the welding zone. Approaches to improve the efficiency are analyzed and compared both separately and combined. These experimentally proven methods confirm previous findings and contribute additional evidence which expand the opportunities for laser beam welding applications. The focus of this research was primarily on the effects of edge surface roughness preparation and pre-set air gap between the plates on weld quality and penetration depth. To date, there has been no reliable evidence that such modifications of the workpiece give a positive effect on the welding efficiency. Other methods were tested in combination with the two methods mentioned above. The most promising - combining with reduced pressure method - resulted in at least 100% increase in efficiency. The results of this thesis support the idea that joining those methods in one modified process will provide the modern engineering with a sufficient tool for many novel applications with potential benefits to a range of industries.

Improving oral healthcare in Scotland with special reference to sustainability and caries prevention

Brett Duane Improving oral healthcare in Scotland with special reference to sustainability and caries prevention University of Turku, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Dentistry, Community Dentistry, Finnish Doctoral Program in Oral Sciences (FINDOS-Turku), Turku, Finland Annales Universitatis Turkuensis, Sarja- Ser. D, Medica-Odontologica. Painosalama Oy, Turku, Finland, 2015. Dentistry must provide sustainable, evidence-based, and prevention-focused care. In Scotland oral health prevention is delivered through the Childsmile programme, with an increasing use of high concentration fluoride toothpaste (HCFT). Compared with other countries there is little knowledge of xylitol prevention. The UK government has set strict carbon emission limits with which all national health services (NHS) must comply. The purpose of these studies was firstly to describe the Scottish national oral health prevention programme Childsmile (CS), to determine if the additional maternal use of xylitol (CS+X) was more effective at affecting the early colonisation of mutans streptococci (MS) than this programme alone; secondly to analyse trends in the prescribing and management of HCFT by dentists; and thirdly to analyse data from a dental service in order to improve its sustainability. In all, 182 mother/child pairs were selected on the basis of high maternal MS levels. Motherswere randomly allocated to a CS or CS+X group, with both groups receiving Childsmile. Theintervention group consumed xylitol three times a day, from when the child was 3 months until 24 months. Children were examined at age two to assess MS levels. In order to understand patterns of HCFT prescribing, a retrospective secondary data analysis of routine prescribing data for the years 2006-2012 was performed. To understand the sustainability of dental services, carbon accounting combined a top-down approach and a process analysis approach, followed by the use of Pollard’s decision model (used in other healthcare areas) to analyse and support sustainable service reconfiguration. Of the CS children, 17% were colonised with MS, compared with 5% of the CS+X group. This difference was not statistically significant (P=0.1744). The cost of HCFT prescribing increased fourteen-fold over five years, with 4% of dentists prescribing 70% of the total product. Travel (45%), procurement (36%) and building energy (18%) all contributed to the 1800 tonnes of carbon emissions produced by the service, around 4% of total NHS emissions. Using the analytical model, clinic utilisation rates improved by 56% and patient travel halved significantly reducing carbon emissions. It can be concluded that the Childsmile programme was effective in reducing the risk for MS transmission. HCFT is increasing in Scotland and needs to be managed. Dentistry has similar carbon emissions proportionally as the overall NHS, and the use of an analytic tool can be useful in helping identify these emissions. Key words: Sustainability, carbon emissions, xylitol, mutans streptococci, fluoride toothpaste, caries prevention.