Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Impact of reliability of supply on long-term development approaches to electricity distribution networks

The Finnish electricity distribution sector, rural areas in particular, is facing major challenges because of the economic regulation, tightening supply security requirements and the ageing network asset. Therefore, the target in the distribution network planning and asset management is to develop and renovate the networks to meet these challenges in compliance with the regulations in an economically feasible way. Concerning supply security, the new Finnish Electricity Market Act limits the maximum duration of electricity supply interruptions to six hours in urban areas and 36 hours in rural areas. This has a significant impact on distribution network planning, especially in rural areas where the distribution networks typically require extensive modifications and renovations to meet the supply security requirements. This doctoral thesis introduces a methodology to analyse electricity distribution system development. The methodology is based on and combines elements of reliability analysis, asset management and economic regulation. The analysis results can be applied, for instance, to evaluate the development of distribution reliability and to consider actions to meet the tightening regulatory requirements. Thus, the methodology produces information for strategic decision-making so that DSOs can respond to challenges arising in the electricity distribution sector. The key contributions of the thesis are a network renovation concept for rural areas, an analysis to assess supply security, and an evaluation of the effects of economic regulation on the strategic network planning. In addition, the thesis demonstrates how the reliability aspect affects the placement of automation devices and how the reserve power can be arranged in a rural area network.

Design Space Exploration for MPSoC Architectures

Multiprocessor system-on-chip (MPSoC) designs utilize the available technology and communication architectures to meet the requirements of the upcoming applications. In MPSoC, the communication platform is both the key enabler, as well as the key differentiator for realizing efficient MPSoCs. It provides product differentiation to meet a diverse, multi-dimensional set of design constraints, including performance, power, energy, reconfigurability, scalability, cost, reliability and time-to-market. The communication resources of a single interconnection platform cannot be fully utilized by all kind of applications, such as the availability of higher communication bandwidth for computation but not data intensive applications is often unfeasible in the practical implementation. This thesis aims to perform the architecture-level design space exploration towards efficient and scalable resource utilization for MPSoC communication architecture. In order to meet the performance requirements within the design constraints, careful selection of MPSoC communication platform, resource aware partitioning and mapping of the application play important role. To enhance the utilization of communication resources, variety of techniques such as resource sharing, multicast to avoid re-transmission of identical data, and adaptive routing can be used. For implementation, these techniques should be customized according to the platform architecture. To address the resource utilization of MPSoC communication platforms, variety of architectures with different design parameters and performance levels, namely Segmented bus (SegBus), Network-on-Chip (NoC) and Three-Dimensional NoC (3D-NoC), are selected. Average packet latency and power consumption are the evaluation parameters for the proposed techniques. In conventional computing architectures, fault on a component makes the connected fault-free components inoperative. Resource sharing approach can utilize the fault-free components to retain the system performance by reducing the impact of faults. Design space exploration also guides to narrow down the selection of MPSoC architecture, which can meet the performance requirements with design constraints.

Additional revenue opportunities in pulp mills and their impacts on the kraft process

Although the concept of multi-products biorefinery provides an opportunity to meet the future demands for biofuels, biomaterials or chemicals, it is not assured that its implementation would improve the profitability of kraft pulp mills. The attractiveness will depend on several factors such as mill age and location, government incentives, economy of scale, end user requirements, and how much value can be added to the new products. In addition, the effective integration of alternative technologies is not straightforward and has to be carefully studied. In this work, detailed balances were performed to evaluate possible impacts that lignin removal, hemicelluloses recovery prior to pulping, torrefaction and pyrolysis of wood residues cause on the conventional mill operation. The development of mill balances was based on theoretical fundamentals, practical experience, literature review, personal communication with technology suppliers and analysis of mill process data. Hemicelluloses recovery through pre-hydrolysis of chips leads to impacts in several stages of the kraft process. Effects can be observed on the pulping process, wood consumption, black liquor properties and, inevitably, on the pulp quality. When lignin is removed from black liquor, it will affect mostly the chemical recovery operation and steam generation rate. Since mineral acid is used to precipitate the lignin, impacts on the mill chemical balance are also expected. A great advantage of processing the wood residues for additional income results from the fact that the pulping process, pulp quality and sales are not harmfully affected. For pulp mills interested in implementing the concept of multi-products biorefinery, this work has indicated possible impacts to be considered in a technical feasibility study.

Introduction of the T-10 static line parachuting capability to the NH90 helicopter

The purpose of this study was to investigate the suitability of the Finnish Defence Forces’ NH90 helicopter for parachuting operations with the T-10 static line parachute system. The work was based on the Army Command’s need to compensate for the reduction in the outsourced flight hours for the military static line parachuting training. The aim of the research was to find out the procedures and limitations with which the NH90 IOC+ or FOC version helicopter could be used for static line parachutist training with the T- 10B/MC1-1C parachutes. The research area was highly complicated and non-linear. Thus analytical methods could not be applied with sufficient confidence, even with present-day computing power. Therefore an empirical research method was selected, concentrating on flight testing supported with literature study and some calculated estimations. During three flights and 4.5 flight hours in Utti, Finland on 17−20 September 2012, a total of 44 parachute drops were made. These consisted of 16 dummy drops and 28 paratrooper jumps. The test results showed that when equipped with the floor mounted PASI-1 anchor line, the deflector bar of the NHIndustries’ Parachuting Kit and Patria’s floor protection panels the Finnish NH90 variant could be safely used for T-10B/MC1-1C static line parachuting operations from the right cabin door at airspeed range of 50−80 KIAS (∼90–150 km/h). The ceiling mounted anchor lines of the NHI’s Parachuting Kit were not usable with the T-10 system. This was due to the static lines’ unsafe behaviour in slipstream when connected to the cabin ceiling level. In conclusion, the NH90 helicopter can be used to meet the Army Command’s requirement for an additional platform for T-10 static line parachutist training. Material dropping, the effect of additional equipment and jumping from the rear ramp should be further studied.

Prediction of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange

This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

Managing Change: An Organizational Outline for Reimagining the Digital Repository Infrastructure at The Ohio State University Libraries

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014