Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Role of Capabilities in Purchasing and Supply Management Performance

The objective of this thesis was to study the role of capabilities in purchasing and supply management. For the pre-understanding of the research topic, purchasing and supply management development and the multidimensional, unstructured and complex nature of purchasing and supply management performance was studied in literature review. In addition, a capability-based purchasing and supply management performance framework were researched and structured for the empirical research. Due to the unstructured nature of the research topic, the empirical research is three-pronged in this study including three different research methods: the Delphi method, semi-structured interview, and case research. As a result, the purchasing and supply management capability assessment tool was structured to measure current level of capabilities and impact of capabilities on purchasing and supply management performance. The final results indicate that capabilities are enablers of purchasing and supply management performance, and therefore critical to purchasing and supply performance.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

Leadership in the mobile smartphone market

The mobile telecommunications industry has been going through an enormous revolution, especially after mid-1990 when smartphones were introduced to the market. As a consequence, the smartphone market’s dynamism is requesting companies to operate differently in the way they do business. After a long period occupying the leader position in the smartphones manufacturers’ rank, Nokia was outperformed by Apple and Samsung during 2011 and since then has been on the third place. Nevertheless, Nokia is battling for regaining the leadership in such a competitive and high-velocity growing market and that is what this research is about. This research covers the competitive and strategic forces that shape dynamic industries whereas the main purpose is to elucidate the main factors that contribute to a company’s above-average performance and ultimately determine its leadership in the mobile smartphone market. Therefore, this exploratory qualitative research was conducted as a desk research, which utilized various secondary sources of data in the knowledge area of strategic management such as theories about competitive advantages and dynamic capabilities of firms, innovation, and strategy. This research is enriched with a case study about Nokia: how the company has been organizing its corporate structure to support the strategies and hence how it has been competing in the smartphone market is analyzed, taking into account many contemporary data sources, including market analysts’ and business experts’ opinions. As a result of the classic literature exploration and the case study assay, a framework for deeper analysis of the competitiveness of firms in dynamic markets was developed. The conclusion that emerged from this research is that the success of a firm results from the interplay of various factors. To regain the leader position in the mobile smartphone market is a challenging task that requires Nokia to reinvent its core strategy for taking charge of the smartphones’ industry transformation through for example the adoption of the open innovation concept. It is imperative that Nokia designs and implement a breakthrough strategy as well as embraces the uncertainty of the smartphone market competition as an opportunity for discontinuous innovation development with the ultimate goal of recovering the leadership.

Ambidextrous leadership in customer contact centre organization

In a modern dynamic environment organizations are facing new requirements for success and competitive advantage. This also sets new requirements for leaders. The term of ambidexterity is used in relation with organizations that are able to manage short-term efficiency and long-term innovation simultaneously. Ambidextrous leaders have the same capability at an individual level. They are able to balance between efficiency and flexibility. This study examined the confrontation of these two competing concepts in the leadership perspective. The aim of the study was to understand this recently arisen concept and its antecedents and examine what is currently known about ambidextrous leadership. This was a case study with data collected through theme interviews in a result orientated customer centre organization that has a cultural change at hand when it comes to leadership and empowerment. Organization wants to be efficient and flexible at the same time (a.k.a. ambidextrous) and that requires new type of leadership. In this study the aim was to describe the capabilities and criteria for ambidextrous leader and examine the leadership roles related to ambidextrous leadership in different hierarchical levels. The case organization had also created systematic means to support this cultural change and the effects of the process related to leadership were studied. This study showed that the area is yet widely unexplored and contradictory views are presented. This study contributes to the deprivation of study of ambidexterity in leadership and individuals. The study presents a description of ambidextrous leadership and describes the capabilities of ambidextrous leader. Ambidextrous leaders are able to make cognitive decisions between their leadership style according to situation that requires either leadership related to efficiency such as transactional leadership or leadership related to flexibility such as transformational leadership. Their leadership style supports both short-term and long-term goals. This study also shows that the role of top management is vital and operational leaders rely on their example.

A multibody dynamic model of the cross-country ski-skating technique

The objective of this thesis is the development of a multibody dynamic model matching the observed movements of the lower limb of a skier performing the skating technique in cross-country style. During the construction of this model, the formulation of the equation of motion was made using the Euler - Lagrange approach with multipliers applied to a multibody system in three dimensions. The description of the lower limb of the skate skier and the ski was completed by employing three bodies, one representing the ski, and two representing the natural movements of the leg of the skier. The resultant system has 13 joint constraints due to the interconnection of the bodies, and four prescribed kinematic constraints to account for the movements of the leg, leaving the amount of degrees of freedom equal to one. The push-off force exerted by the skate skier was taken directly from measurements made on-site in the ski tunnel at the Vuokatti facilities (Finland) and was input into the model as a continuous function. Then, the resultant velocities and movement of the ski, center of mass of the skier, and variation of the skating angle were studied to understand the response of the model to the variation of important parameters of the skate technique. This allowed a comparison of the model results with the real movement of the skier. Further developments can be made to this model to better approximate the results to the real movement of the leg. One can achieve this by changing the constraints to include the behavior of the real leg joints and muscle actuation. As mentioned in the introduction of this thesis, a multibody dynamic model can be used to provide relevant information to ski designers and to obtain optimized results of the given variables, which athletes can use to improve their performance.

Dynamic Ownership in Family Business System – A Portfolio Business Approach

Family businesses are among the longest-lived most prevalent institutions in the world and they are an important source of economic development and growth. Ownership is a key to the business life of the firm and also one main key in family business definition. There is only a little portfolio entrepreneurship or portfolio business research within family business context. The absence of empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between family ownership and portfolio development presents an important gap in the family business literature. This study deals with the family business ownership changes and the development of portfolios in the family business and it is positioned in to the conversation of family business, growth, ownership, management and strategy. This study contributes and expands the existing body of theory on family business and ownership. From the theoretical point of view this study combines insights from the fields of portfolio entrepreneurship, ownership, and family business and integrate them. This crossfertilization produces interesting empirical and theoretical findings that can constitute a basis for solid contributions to the understanding of ownership dynamics and portfolio entrepreneurship in family firms. The research strategy chosen for this study represents longitudinal, qualitative, hermeneutic, and deductive approaches.The empirical part of study is using a case study approach with embedded design, that is, multiple levels of analysis within a single study. The study consists of two cases and it begins with a pilot case which will form a preunderstanding on the phenomenon. Pilot case develops the methodology approach to build in the main case and the main case will deepen the understanding of the phenomenon. This study develops and tests a research method of family business portfolio development focusing on investigating how ownership changes are influencing to the family business structures over time. This study reveals the linkages between dimensions of ownership and how they give rise to portfolio business development within the context of the family business. The empirical results of the study suggest that family business ownership is dynamic and owners are using ownership as a tool for creating business portfolios.

Development of racemization catalysts for dynamic kinetic resolution

Preparation of optically active compounds is of high importance in modern medicinal chemistry. Despite recent advances in the field of asymmetric synthesis, resolution of racemates still remains the most utilized way for preparation of single enantiomers in industrial scale due to its cost-efficiency and simplicity. Enzymatic kinetic resolution (KR) of racemates is a classical method for separation of enantiomers. One of its drawbacks is the limitation of target enantiomer yield to 50%. Dynamic Kinetic Resolution (DKR) allows to reach yields up to 100% by in situ racemization of the less reactive enantiomer. In the first part of this thesis, a number of half-sandwich ruthenium complexes were prepared and evaluated as catalysts for racemization of optically active secondary alcohols. A leading catalyst, Bn5CpRu(CO)2Cl, was identified. The catalyst discovered was extensively characterized by its application for DKR of a broad range of secondary alcohols in a wide range of reaction loadings (1 mmol – 1 mol). Cost-efficient chromatography-free procedure for preparation of this catalyst was developed. Further, detailed kinetic and mechanistic studies of the racemization reactions were performed. Comparison of racemization rates in the presence of Bn5CpRu(CO)2Cl and Ph5CpRu(CO)2Cl catalysts reveals that the performance of the catalytic system can be adjusted by matching of the electronic properties of the catalysts and the substrates. Moreover, dependence of the rate-limiting step from the electronic properties of the reagents was observed. Important conclusions about reaction mechanism were made. Finally, an alternative approach to DKR of amines based on space separated vessels was addressed. This procedure allows the combination of thermolabile enzyme with racemization catalysts active only at high temperatures.

Simulation of structural stress history based on dynamic analysis

Modern machine structures are often fabricated by welding. From a fatigue point of view, the structural details and especially, the welded details are the most prone to fatigue damage and failure. Design against fatigue requires information on the fatigue resistance of a structure’s critical details and the stress loads that act on each detail. Even though, dynamic simulation of flexible bodies is already current method for analyzing structures, obtaining the stress history of a structural detail during dynamic simulation is a challenging task; especially when the detail has a complex geometry. In particular, analyzing the stress history of every structural detail within a single finite element model can be overwhelming since the amount of nodal degrees of freedom needed in the model may require an impractical amount of computational effort. The purpose of computer simulation is to reduce amount of prototypes and speed up the product development process. Also, to take operator influence into account, real time models, i.e. simplified and computationally efficient models are required. This in turn, requires stress computation to be efficient if it will be performed during dynamic simulation. The research looks back at the theoretical background of multibody dynamic simulation and finite element method to find suitable parts to form a new approach for efficient stress calculation. This study proposes that, the problem of stress calculation during dynamic simulation can be greatly simplified by using a combination of floating frame of reference formulation with modal superposition and a sub-modeling approach. In practice, the proposed approach can be used to efficiently generate the relevant fatigue assessment stress history for a structural detail during or after dynamic simulation. In this work numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed approach in practice. The results show that approach is applicable and can be used as proposed.

On Dynamic Monitoring Methods for Networks-on-Chip

Rapid ongoing evolution of multiprocessors will lead to systems with hundreds of processing cores integrated in a single chip. An emerging challenge is the implementation of reliable and efficient interconnection between these cores as well as other components in the systems. Network-on-Chip is an interconnection approach which is intended to solve the performance bottleneck caused by traditional, poorly scalable communication structures such as buses. However, a large on-chip network involves issues related to congestion problems and system control, for instance. Additionally, faults can cause problems in multiprocessor systems. These faults can be transient faults, permanent manufacturing faults, or they can appear due to aging. To solve the emerging traffic management, controllability issues and to maintain system operation regardless of faults a monitoring system is needed. The monitoring system should be dynamically applicable to various purposes and it should fully cover the system under observation. In a large multiprocessor the distances between components can be relatively long. Therefore, the system should be designed so that the amount of energy-inefficient long-distance communication is minimized. This thesis presents a dynamically clustered distributed monitoring structure. The monitoring is distributed so that no centralized control is required for basic tasks such as traffic management and task mapping. To enable extensive analysis of different Network-on-Chip architectures, an in-house SystemC based simulation environment was implemented. It allows transaction level analysis without time consuming circuit level implementations during early design phases of novel architectures and features. The presented analysis shows that the dynamically clustered monitoring structure can be efficiently utilized for traffic management in faulty and congested Network-on-Chip-based multiprocessor systems. The monitoring structure can be also successfully applied for task mapping purposes. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the presented in-house simulation environment is flexible and practical tool for extensive Network-on-Chip architecture analysis.

On Innovative Search: the use of internal and external sources of innovation among Finnish innovators

This dissertation explores the use of internal and external sources of knowledge in modern innovation processes. It builds on a framework that combines theories such as a behavioural theory of the firm, the evolutionary theory of economic change, and modern approaches to strategic management. It follows the recent increase in innovation research focusing on the firm-level examination of innovative activities instead of traditional industry-level determinants. The innovation process is seen as a problem- and slack- driven search process, which can take several directions in terms of organizational boundaries in the pursuit of new knowledge and other resources. It thus draws on recent models of technological change, according to which firms nowadays should build their innovative activities on both internal and external sources of innovation rather than relying solely on internal resources. Four different research questions are addressed, all of which are empirically investigated via a rich dataset covering Finnish innovators collected by Statistics Finland. Firstly, the study examines how the nature of problems shapes the direction of any search for new knowledge. In general it demonstrates that the nature of the problem does affect the direction of the search, although under resource constraints firms tend to use external rather than internal sources of knowledge. At the same time, it shows that those firms that are constrained in terms of finance seem to search both internally and externally. Secondly, the dissertation investigates the relationships between different kinds of internal and external sources of knowledge in an attempt to find out where firms should direct their search in order to exploit the potential of a distributed innovation process. The concept of complementarities is applied in this context. The third research question concerns how the use of external knowledge sources – openness to external knowledge – influences the financial performance of firms. Given the many advantages of openness presented in the current literature, the focus is on how it shapes profitability. The results reveal a curvilinear relationship between profitability and openness (taking an inverted U-shape), the implication being that it pays to be open up to a certain point, but being too open to external sources may be detrimental to financial performance. Finally, the dissertation addresses some challenges in CISbased innovation research that have received relatively little attention in prior studies. The general aim is to underline the fact that comprehensive understanding of the complex process of technological change requires the constant development of methodological approaches (in terms of data and measures, for example). All the empirical analyses included in the dissertation are based on the Finnish CIS (Finnish Innovation Survey 1998-2000).

Managerial decision-making style : India, Bangladesh, and Finland : cultural side of the game

Julkaisumaa Intia 356 IN IND

Technology park as an element of innovative infrastructure- its role in internationalization support.

The Thesis concentrates on two central terms – Technology park and the resource-based view of the organization. General attention is devoted to competencies and capabilities of organizations that operate in foreign environment. It is difficult to go abroad without any experience and support from local government, especially for small or medium company. Technology and Science parks are the main sources of competitive advantage for this kind of organizations. They provide a huge range of services as well as business consultations and financial support on different stages of companies’ development. The Thesis was made with the assistance of Technopolis Oy in Lappeenranta. During the research companies in Finland and Russia were interviewed. Based on empirical findings important capabilities for entering foreign market were identified and some recommendations for the Technology park were given.

Situational awareness concept in a multinational collaboration environment : challenges in the information sharing framework

Technological capabilities are built to support different types of collaboration, and this gives the justification to widely observe, how activity environments are influenced by technology. Technology as an enabler can be addressed from different perspectives, other than merely technological. Dynamic, evolving environment is at the same time interesting but also challenging. As a multinational collaboration environment, the maritime surveillance is an good example of time critical and evolving environment, where technological solutions enable new ways of collaboration. Justification for the inspiration to use maritime environment as the baseline for understanding the challenges in creating and maintaining adequate level of situational awareness, derives from the complexity of the collaboration and information sharing environment elements, needed to be taken into account, when analyzing criticalities related to decision making. Situational awareness is an important element supporting decision making, and challenges related to it can also be observed in the maritime environment. This dissertation describes the structures and factors involved in this complex setting, found from the case studies that should be taken into account when trying to understand, how these elements affect the activities. This dissertation focuses on the gray area that is between a life threatening situation and normal everyday activities. From the multinational experimentation series case studies, MNE5 and MNE6 it was possible to observe situations that were not life threatening for the participants themselves, but not also basic every day activities. These case studies provided a unique possibility to see situations, where gaining of situational awareness and decision making are challenged with time critical crisis situations. Unfortunately organizations do not normally take the benefit from the everyday work to prepare themselves for possible emerging crisis situations. This dissertation focuses on creating a conceptual model and a concept that supports organizations – also outside the maritime community – to improve their ability to support gaining of situational awareness from the individual training level, all the way to changes in organizational structures in aiming for better support for decision making from the individual level to the highest decision making level. Quick changes and unpredictability are reality in organizations and organizations do not have the possibility to control all the factors that affect their functioning. Since we cannot be prepared for everything, and predict every crisis, individual activities inside teams and as a part of organizations, need to be supported with guidance, tools and training in order to support acting in challenging situations. In fact the ideology of the conceptual model created, lies especially in the aim of not controlling everything in beforehand, but supporting organizations with concrete procedures to help individuals to react in different, unpredictable situations, instead of focusing on traditional risk prevention and management. Technological capabilities are not automatically solutions for functional challenges; this is why it is justified to broaden the problem area observation from the technological perspective. This dissertation demonstrates that it is possible to support collaboration in a multinational environment with technological solutions, but it requires the recognition of technological limitations and accepting the possible restrictions related to technological innovations. Technology should not be considered value per se, the value of technology should be defined according to the support of activities, including strategic and operational environment evaluation, identification of organizational elements, and taking into account also the social factors and their challenges. Then we are one step closer to providing technological solutions that support the actual activities by taking into account the variables of the activity environment in question. The multidisciplinary view to approach the information sharing and collaboration framework, is derived especially from the complexity of decision making and building of situational awareness, since they are not build or created in vacuity, but in the organizational framework by the people doing it with the technological capabilities, enabled by the organizational structures. Introduced case studies were related to maritime environment, but according to the research results, it is valid to argue, that based on the lessons learned it is possible to create and further develop conceptual model and to create a general concept to support a wider range of organizations in their attempt to gain better level of situational awareness (SA) and to support decision making. To proof the versatile usage of the developed concept, I have introduced the case study findings to the health care environment and reflected the identified elements from the trauma center to the created concept. The main contribution to complete this adventure is the presented situational awareness concept created in the respect to NATO concept structure. This has been done to tackle the challenge of collaboration by focusing on situational awareness in the information sharing context by providing a theoretical ground and understanding, of how these issues should be approached, and how these elements can be generalized and used to support activities in other environments as well. This dissertation research has been a several year evolving process reflecting and affecting presented case studies and this learning experience from the case studies has also affected the goals and research questions of this dissertation. This venture has been written from a retro perspective according to ideology of process modeling and design rationale to present to the reader how this entire journey took place and what where the critical milestones that affected the end result, conceptual model. Support in a challenging information sharing framework can be provided with the right type of combination of tools, procedures and individual effort. This dissertation will provide insights to those with a new approach to war technology for the organizations to gain a better level of awareness and to improve the capabilities in decision making. This dissertation will present, from the war technology starting point, a new approach and possibility for the organizations to create a better level of awareness and support for decision making with the right combination of tools, procedures and individual effort.