Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Simulation of the Interaction Mean Free Path between Neutrons and TRISO Particles

The interaction mean free path between neutrons and TRISO particles is simulated using scripts written in MATLAB to solve the increasing error present with an increase in the packing factor in the reactor physics code Serpent. Their movement is tracked both in an unbounded and in a bounded space. Their track is calculated, depending on the program, linearly directly using the position vectors of the neutrons and the surface equations of all the fuel particles; by dividing the space in multiple subspaces, each of which contain a fraction of the total number of particles, and choosing the particles from those subspaces through which the neutron passes through; or by choosing the particles that lie within an infinite cylinder formed on the movement axis of the neutron. The estimate from the current analytical model, based on an exponential distribution, for the mean free path, utilized by Serpent, is used as a reference result. The results from the implicit model in Serpent imply a too long mean free path with high packing factors. The received results support this observation by producing, with a packing factor of 17 %, approximately 2.46 % shorter mean free path compared to the reference model. This is supported by the packing factor experienced by the neutron, the simulation of which resulted in a 17.29 % packing factor. It was also observed that the neutrons leaving from the surfaces of the fuel particles, in contrast to those starting inside the moderator, do not follow the exponential distribution. The current model, as it is, is thus not valid in the determination of the free path lengths of the neutrons.

Simulation of wind powered hydraulic heating system

The objective of this master’s thesis was to design and simulate a wind powered hydraulic heating system that can operate independently in remote places where the use of electricity is not possible. Components for the system were to be selected in such a way that the conditions for manufacture, use and economic viability are the as good as possible. Savonius rotor was chosen for wind turbine, due to its low cut in speed and robust design. Savonius rotor produces kinetic energy in wide wind speed range and it can withstand high wind gusts. Radial piston pump was chosen for the flow source of the hydraulic heater. Pump type was selected due to its characteristics in low rotation speeds and high efficiency. Volume flow from the pump is passed through the throttle orifice. Pressure drop over the orifice causes the hydraulic oil to heat up and, thus, creating thermal energy. Thermal energy in the oil is led to radiator where it conducts heat to the environment. The hydraulic heating system was simulated. For this purpose a mathematical models of chosen components were created. In simulation wind data gathered by Finnish meteorological institute for 167 hours was used as input. The highest produced power was achieved by changing the orifice diameter so that the rotor tip speed ratio follows the power curve. This is not possible to achieve without using electricity. Thus, for the orifice diameter only one, the optimal value was defined. Results from the simulation were compared with investment calculations. Different parameters effecting the investment profitability were altered in sensitivity analyses in order to define the points of investment profitability. Investment was found to be profitable only with high average wind speeds.

Large-eddy simulation of wind flows over complex terrains for wind energy applications

Wind energy has obtained outstanding expectations due to risks of global warming and nuclear energy production plant accidents. Nowadays, wind farms are often constructed in areas of complex terrain. A potential wind farm location must have the site thoroughly surveyed and the wind climatology analyzed before installing any hardware. Therefore, modeling of Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows over complex terrains containing, e.g. hills, forest, and lakes is of great interest in wind energy applications, as it can help in locating and optimizing the wind farms. Numerical modeling of wind flows using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become a popular technique during the last few decades. Due to the inherent flow variability and large-scale unsteadiness typical in ABL flows in general and especially over complex terrains, the flow can be difficult to be predicted accurately enough by using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Large- Eddy Simulation (LES) resolves the largest and thus most important turbulent eddies and models only the small-scale motions which are more universal than the large eddies and thus easier to model. Therefore, LES is expected to be more suitable for this kind of simulations although it is computationally more expensive than the RANS approach. With the fast development of computers and open-source CFD software during the recent years, the application of LES toward atmospheric flow is becoming increasingly common nowadays. The aim of the work is to simulate atmospheric flows over realistic and complex terrains by means of LES. Evaluation of potential in-land wind park locations will be the main application for these simulations. Development of the LES methodology to simulate the atmospheric flows over realistic terrains is reported in the thesis. The work also aims at validating the LES methodology at a real scale. In the thesis, LES are carried out for flow problems ranging from basic channel flows to real atmospheric flows over one of the most recent real-life complex terrain problems, the Bolund hill. All the simulations reported in the thesis are carried out using a new OpenFOAM® -based LES solver. The solver uses the 4th order time-accurate Runge-Kutta scheme and a fractional step method. Moreover, development of the LES methodology includes special attention to two boundary conditions: the upstream (inflow) and wall boundary conditions. The upstream boundary condition is generated by using the so-called recycling technique, in which the instantaneous flow properties are sampled on aplane downstream of the inlet and mapped back to the inlet at each time step. This technique develops the upstream boundary-layer flow together with the inflow turbulence without using any precursor simulation and thus within a single computational domain. The roughness of the terrain surface is modeled by implementing a new wall function into OpenFOAM® during the thesis work. Both, the recycling method and the newly implemented wall function, are validated for the channel flows at relatively high Reynolds number before applying them to the atmospheric flow applications. After validating the LES model over simple flows, the simulations are carried out for atmospheric boundary-layer flows over two types of hills: first, two-dimensional wind-tunnel hill profiles and second, the Bolund hill located in Roskilde Fjord, Denmark. For the twodimensional wind-tunnel hills, the study focuses on the overall flow behavior as a function of the hill slope. Moreover, the simulations are repeated using another wall function suitable for smooth surfaces, which already existed in OpenFOAM® , in order to study the sensitivity of the flow to the surface roughness in ABL flows. The simulated results obtained using the two wall functions are compared against the wind-tunnel measurements. It is shown that LES using the implemented wall function produces overall satisfactory results on the turbulent flow over the two-dimensional hills. The prediction of the flow separation and reattachment-length for the steeper hill is closer to the measurements than the other numerical studies reported in the past for the same hill geometry. The field measurement campaign performed over the Bolund hill provides the most recent field-experiment dataset for the mean flow and the turbulence properties. A number of research groups have simulated the wind flows over the Bolund hill. Due to the challenging features of the hill such as the almost vertical hill slope, it is considered as an ideal experimental test case for validating micro-scale CFD models for wind energy applications. In this work, the simulated results obtained for two wind directions are compared against the field measurements. It is shown that the present LES can reproduce the complex turbulent wind flow structures over a complicated terrain such as the Bolund hill. Especially, the present LES results show the best prediction of the turbulent kinetic energy with an average error of 24.1%, which is a 43% smaller than any other model results reported in the past for the Bolund case. Finally, the validated LES methodology is demonstrated to simulate the wind flow over the existing Muukko wind farm located in South-Eastern Finland. The simulation is carried out only for one wind direction and the results on the instantaneous and time-averaged wind speeds are briefly reported. The demonstration case is followed by discussions on the practical aspects of LES for the wind resource assessment over a realistic inland wind farm.

Virtual Runtime Application Partitions for Resource Management in Massively Parallel Architectures

This thesis presents a novel design paradigm, called Virtual Runtime Application Partitions (VRAP), to judiciously utilize the on-chip resources. As the dark silicon era approaches, where the power considerations will allow only a fraction chip to be powered on, judicious resource management will become a key consideration in future designs. Most of the works on resource management treat only the physical components (i.e. computation, communication, and memory blocks) as resources and manipulate the component to application mapping to optimize various parameters (e.g. energy efficiency). To further enhance the optimization potential, in addition to the physical resources we propose to manipulate abstract resources (i.e. voltage/frequency operating point, the fault-tolerance strength, the degree of parallelism, and the configuration architecture). The proposed framework (i.e. VRAP) encapsulates methods, algorithms, and hardware blocks to provide each application with the abstract resources tailored to its needs. To test the efficacy of this concept, we have developed three distinct self adaptive environments: (i) Private Operating Environment (POE), (ii) Private Reliability Environment (PRE), and (iii) Private Configuration Environment (PCE) that collectively ensure that each application meets its deadlines using minimal platform resources. In this work several novel architectural enhancements, algorithms and policies are presented to realize the virtual runtime application partitions efficiently. Considering the future design trends, we have chosen Coarse Grained Reconfigurable Architectures (CGRAs) and Network on Chips (NoCs) to test the feasibility of our approach. Specifically, we have chosen Dynamically Reconfigurable Resource Array (DRRA) and McNoC as the representative CGRA and NoC platforms. The proposed techniques are compared and evaluated using a variety of quantitative experiments. Synthesis and simulation results demonstrate VRAP significantly enhances the energy and power efficiency compared to state of the art.

Development of Generic Simulation Model for Mobile Working Machines

This master’s thesis has been done for Drive! –project in which a new electric motor solution for mobile working machines is developed. Generic simulation model will be used as marketing and development tool. It can be used to model a wide variety of different vehicles with and without electric motor and to show customer the difference between traditionally build vehicles and those with new electric motor solution. Customers can also use simulation model to research different solutions for their own vehicles. At the start of the project it was decided that MeVEA software would be used as main simulation program and Simulink will only be used to simulate the operation of electrical components. Development of the generic model started with the research of these two software applications, simulation models which are made with them and how these simulation models can be build faster. Best results were used for building of generic simulation model. Finished generic model can be used to produce new tractor models for real-time simulations in short notice. All information about model is collected to one datasheet which can be easily filled by the user. After datasheet is filled a script will automatically build new simulation model in seconds. At the moment generic model is capable of building simulation models for wide variety of different tractors but it can be easily altered for other vehicle types too which would also benefit greatly from electric drive solution. Those could be for example wheel loaders and harvesters.

Numerical simulation of rotor-stator interaction and tip clearance flow in centrifugal compressors

The effect of the tip clearance and vaneless diffuser width on the stage performance and flow fields of a centrifugal compressor were studied numerically and results were compared to the experimental measurements. The diffuser width was changed by moving the shroud side of the diffuser axially and six tip clearances size from 0.5 to 3 mm were studied. Moreover, the effects of rotor-stator interaction on the diffuser and impeller flow fields and performance were studied. Also transient simulations were carried out in order to investigate the influence of the interaction on the impeller and diffuser performance parameters. It was seen that pinch could improve the performance and it help to get more uniform flow at exit and less back flow from diffuser to the impeller.

Novel virtual environment and real-time simulation based methods for improving life-cycle efficiency of non-road mobile machinery

Virtual environments and real-time simulators (VERS) are becoming more and more important tools in research and development (R&D) process of non-road mobile machinery (NRMM). The virtual prototyping techniques enable faster and more cost-efficient development of machines compared to use of real life prototypes. High energy efficiency has become an important topic in the world of NRMM because of environmental and economic demands. The objective of this thesis is to develop VERS based methods for research and development of NRMM. A process using VERS for assessing effects of human operators on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM was developed. Human in the loop simulations are ran using an underground mining loader to study the developed process. The simulations were ran in the virtual environment of the Laboratory of Intelligent Machines of Lappeenranta University of Technology. A physically adequate real-time simulation model of NRMM was shown to be reliable and cost effective in testing of hardware components by the means of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations. A control interface connecting integrated electro-hydraulic energy converter (IEHEC) with virtual simulation model of log crane was developed. IEHEC consists of a hydraulic pump-motor and an integrated electrical permanent magnet synchronous motorgenerator. The results show that state of the art real-time NRMM simulators are capable to solve factors related to energy consumption and productivity of the NRMM. A significant variation between the test drivers is found. The results show that VERS can be used for assessing human effects on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM. HIL simulation responses compared to that achieved with conventional simulation method demonstrate the advances and drawbacks of various possible interfaces between the simulator and hardware part of the system under study. Novel ideas for arranging the interface are successfully tested and compared with the more traditional one. The proposed process for assessing the effects of operators on the life-cycle efficiency will be applied for wider group of operators in the future. Driving styles of the operators can be analysed statistically from sufficient large result data. The statistical analysis can find the most life-cycle efficient driving style for the specific environment and machinery. The proposed control interface for HIL simulation need to be further studied. The robustness and the adaptation of the interface in different situations must be verified. The future work will also include studying the suitability of the IEHEC for different working machines using the proposed HIL simulation method.

Numerical simulation of two-chamber plasma sources using finite element method

Numerical simulation of plasma sources is very important. Such models allows to vary different plasma parameters with high degree of accuracy. Moreover, they allow to conduct measurements not disturbing system balance.Recently, the scientific and practical interest increased in so-called two-chamber plasma sources. In one of them (small or discharge chamber) an external power source is embedded. In that chamber plasma forms. In another (large or diffusion chamber) plasma exists due to the transport of particles and energy through the boundary between chambers.In this particular work two-chamber plasma sources with argon and oxygen as active mediums were onstructed. This models give interesting results in electric field profiles and, as a consequence, in density profiles of charged particles.

Power efficiency estimation and simulation of different control methods for the rotary screw compressor

Nowadays the energy efficiency has become one of the most concerned topics. Compressors are the equipment, which is very common in industry. Moreover, they tend to operate during long cycles and therefore even small decrease in power consumption can significantly reduce electricity costs during the year. And therefore it is important to investigate ways of increasing the energy efficiency of the compressors. In the thesis rotary screw compressor alongside with different control approaches is described. Simulation models for various control types of rotary screw compressor are developed. Analysis of laboratory equipment is conducted and results are compared with simulation. Suggestions of the real laboratory equipment improvement are given.

CloudSimDisk: Energy-Aware Storage Simulation in CloudSim

Cloud Computing paradigm is continually evolving, and with it, the size and the complexity of its infrastructure. Assessing the performance of a Cloud environment is an essential but strenuous task. Modeling and simulation tools have proved their usefulness and powerfulness to deal with this issue. This master thesis work contributes to the development of the widely used cloud simulator CloudSim and proposes CloudSimDisk, a module for modeling and simulation of energy-aware storage in CloudSim. As a starting point, a review of Cloud simulators has been conducted and hard disk drive technology has been studied in detail. Furthermore, CloudSim has been identified as the most popular and sophisticated discrete event Cloud simulator. Thus, CloudSimDisk module has been developed as an extension of CloudSim v3.0.3. The source code has been published for the research community. The simulation results proved to be in accordance with the analytic models, and the scalability of the module has been presented for further development.

Simulation model of wind turbine gearbox and lubrication system

As increasing efficiency of a wind turbine gearbox, more power can be transferred from rotor blades to generator and less power is used to cause wear and heating in the gearbox. By using a simulation model, behavior of the gearbox can be studied before creating expensive prototypes. The objective of the thesis is to model a wind turbine gearbox and its lubrication system to study power losses and heat transfer inside the gearbox and to study the simulation methods of the used software. Software used to create the simulation model is Siemens LMS Imagine.Lab AMESim, which can be used to create one-dimensional mechatronic system simulation models from different fields of engineering. When combining components from different libraries it is possible to create a simulation model, which includes mechanical, thermal and hydraulic models of the gearbox. Results for mechanical, thermal, and hydraulic simulations are presented in the thesis. Due to the large scale of the wind turbine gearbox and the amount of power transmitted, power loss calculations from AMESim software are inaccurate and power losses are modelled as constant efficiency for each gear mesh. Starting values for simulation in thermal and hydraulic simulations were chosen from test measurements and from empirical study as compact and complex design of gearbox prevents accurate test measurements. In further studies to increase the accuracy of the simulation model, components used for power loss calculations needs to be modified and values for unknown variables are needed to be solved through accurate test measurements.

Studies of rotor dynamics using a multibody simulation approach

The non-idealities in a rotor-bearing system may cause undesirable subcritical superharmonic resonances that occur when the rotating speed of the rotor is a fraction of the natural frequency of the system. These resonances arise partly from the non-idealities of the bearings. This study introduces a novel simulation approach that can be used to study the superharmonic vibrations of rotor-bearing systems. The superharmonic vibrations of complex rotor-bearing systems can be studied in an accurate manner by combining a detailed rotor and bearing model in a multibody simulation approach. The research looks at the theoretical background of multibody formulations that can be used in the dynamic analysis of flexible rotors. The multibody formulations currently in use are suitable for linear deformation analysis only. However, nonlinear formulation may arise in high-speed rotor dynamics applications due to the cenrrifugal stiffening effect. For this reason, finite element formulations that can describe nonlinear deformation are also introduced in this work. The description of the elastic forces in the absolute nodal coordinate formulation is studied and improved. A ball bearing model that includes localized and distributed defects is developed in this study. This bearing model could be used in rotor dynamics or multibody code as an interface elements between the rotor and the supporting structure. The model includes descriptions of the nonlinear Hertzian contact deformation and the elastohydrodynamic fluid film. The simulation approaches and models developed here are applied in the analysis of two example rotor-bearing systems. The first example is an electric motor supported by two ball bearings and the second is a roller test rig that consists of the tube roll of a paper machine supported by a hard-bearing-type balanceing machine. The simulation results are compared to the results available in literature as well as to those obtained by measuring the existing structure. In both practical examples, the comparison shows that the simulation model is capable of predicting the realistic responses of a rotor system. The simulation approaches developed in this work can be used in the analysis of the superharmonic vibrations of general rotor-bearing systems.