Open repositories of past, present and future

Presentation at the Nordic Perspectives on Open Access and Open Science seminar, Helsinki, October 15, 2013

Deregulation’s Impact on the Railway Freight Transport Sector’s Future in the Baltic Sea Region

The European transport market has confronted several changes during the last decade. Due to European Union legislative mandates, the railway freight market was deregulated in 2007. The market followed the trend started by other transport modes as well as other previously regulated industries such as banking, telecommunications and energy. Globally, the first country to deregulate the railway freight market was the United States, with the introduction of the Staggers Rail Act in 1980. Some European countries decided to follow suit already before regulation was mandated; among the forerunners were the United Kingdom, Sweden and Germany. The previous research has concentrated only on these countries, which has provided an interesting research gap for this thesis. The Baltic Sea Region consists of countries with different kinds of liberalization paths, including Sweden and Germany, which have been on the frontline, whereas Lithuania and Finland have only one active railway undertaking, the incumbent. The transport market of the European Union is facing further challenges in the near future, due to the Sulphur Directive, oil dependency and the changing structure of European rail networks. In order to improve the accessibility of this peripheral area, further action is required. This research focuses on topics such as the progression of deregulation, barriers to entry, country-specific features, cooperation and internationalization. Based on the research results, it can be stated that the Baltic Sea Region’s railway freight market is expected to change in the future. Further private railway undertakings are anticipated, and these would change the market structure. The realization of European Union’s plans to increase the improved rail network to cover the Baltic States is strongly hoped for, and railway freight market counterparts inside and among countries are starting to enhance their level of cooperation. The Baltic Sea Region countries have several special national characteristics which influence the market and should be taken into account when companies evaluate possible market entry actions. According to thesis interviews, the Swedish market has a strong level of cooperation in the form of an old-boy network, and is supported by a positive attitude of the incumbent towards the private railway undertakings. This has facilitated the entry process of newcomers, and currently the market has numerous operating railway undertakings. A contrary example was found from Poland, where the incumbent sent old rolling stock to the scrap yard rather than sell it to private railway undertakings. The importance of personal relations is highlighted in Russia, followed by the railway market’s strong political bond with politics. Nonetheless, some barriers to entry are shared by the Baltic Sea Region, the main ones being acquisition of rolling stock, bureaucracy and needed investments. The railway freight market is internationalizing, which is perceived via several alliances as well as the increased number of mergers and acquisitions. After deregulation, markets seem to increase the number of railway undertakings at a rather fast pace, but with the passage of time, the larger operators tend to acquire smaller ones. Therefore, it is expected that in a decade’s time, the number of railway undertakings will start to decrease in the deregulation pioneer countries, while the ones coming from behind might still experience an increase. The Russian market is expected to be totally liberalized, and further alliances between the Russian Railways and European railway undertakings are expected to occur. The Baltic Sea Region’s railway freight market is anticipated to improve, and, based on the interviewees’ comments, attract more cargoes from road to rail.

Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

“Between publication culture and funder mandates - What is the future for disciplinary repositories?”

Workshop at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Container logistic innovations in forest-energy sector: Markets, future service concepts and technical improvements

The report presents the results of the commercialization project called the Container logistic services for forest bioenergy. The project promotes new business that is emerging around overall container logistic services in the bioenergy sector. The results assess the European markets of the container logistics for biomass, enablers for new business creation and required service bundles for the concept. We also demonstrate the customer value of the container logistic services for different market segments. The concept analysis is based on concept mapping, quality function deployment process (QFD) and business network analysis. The business network analysis assesses key shareholders and their mutual connections. The performance of the roadside chipping chain is analysed by the logistic cost simulation, RFID system demonstration and freezing tests. The EU has set the renewable energy target to 20 % in 2020 of which Biomass could account for two-thirds. In the Europe, the production of wood fuels was 132.9 million solid-m3 in 2012 and production of wood chips and particles was 69.0 million solidm3. The wood-based chips and particle flows are suitable for container transportation providing market of 180.6 million loose- m3 which mean 4.5 million container loads per year. The intermodal logistics of trucks and trains are promising for the composite containers because the biomass does not freeze onto the inner surfaces in the unloading situations. The overall service concept includes several packages: container rental, container maintenance, terminal services, RFID-tracking service, and simulation and ERP-integration service. The container rental and maintenance would provide transportation entrepreneurs a way to increase the capacity without high investment costs. The RFID-concept would lead to better work planning improving profitability throughout the logistic chain and simulation supports fuel supply optimization.

Images of the future of privacy: A privacy dynamics framework and a causal layered

The future of privacy in the information age is a highly debated topic. In particular, new and emerging technologies such as ICTs and cognitive technologies are seen as threats to privacy. This thesis explores images of the future of privacy among non-experts within the time frame from the present until the year 2050. The aims of the study are to conceptualise privacy as a social and dynamic phenomenon, to understand how privacy is conceptualised among citizens and to analyse ideal-typical images of the future of privacy using the causal layered analysis method. The theoretical background of the thesis combines critical futures studies and critical realism, and the empirical material is drawn from three focus group sessions held in spring 2012 as part of the PRACTIS project. From a critical realist perspective, privacy is conceptualised as a social institution which creates and maintains boundaries between normative circles and preserves the social freedom of individuals. Privacy changes when actors with particular interests engage in technology-enabled practices which challenge current privacy norms. The thesis adopts a position of technological realism as opposed to determinism or neutralism. In the empirical part, the focus group participants are divided into four clusters based on differences in privacy conceptions and perceived threats and solutions. The clusters are fundamentalists, pragmatists, individualists and collectivists. Correspondingly, four ideal-typical images of the future are composed: ‘drift to low privacy’, ‘continuity and benign evolution’, ‘privatised privacy and an uncertain future’, and ‘responsible future or moral decline’. The images are analysed using the four layers of causal layered analysis: litany, system, worldview and myth. Each image has its strengths and weaknesses. The individualistic images tend to be fatalistic in character while the collectivistic images are somewhat utopian. In addition, the images have two common weaknesses: lack of recognition of ongoing developments and simplistic conceptions of privacy based on a dichotomy between the individual and society. The thesis argues for a dialectical understanding of futures as present images of the future and as outcomes of real processes and mechanisms. The first steps in promoting desirable futures are the awareness of privacy as a social institution, the awareness of current images of the future, including their assumptions and weaknesses, and an attitude of responsibility where futures are seen as the consequences of present choices.

Commodity Future Price Premiums – Case EU ETS

The purpose of this thesis was to study commodity future price premiums and their nature on emission allowance markets. The EUA spot and future contracts traded on the secondary market during EU ETS Phase 2 and Phase 3 were selected for empirical testing. The cointegration of spot and future prices was examined with Johansen cointegration methodology. Daily interest rates with a similar tenor to the future contract maturity were used in the cost-of-carry model to calculate the theoretical future prices and to estimate the deviation from the fair value of future contracts, assumed to be explained by the convenience yield. The time-varying dependence of the convenience yield was studied by regression testing the correlation between convenience yield and the time to maturity of the future contract. The results indicated cointegration between spot and future prices, albeit depending on assumptions on linear trend and intercept in cointegration vector Dec-14 and Dec-15 contracts. The convenience yield correlates positively with the time-to-maturity of the future contract during Phase 2, but negatively during Phase 3. The convenience yield featured positive correlation with spot price volatility and negative correlation with future price volatility during both Phases 2 and 3.

Language of the Future, Language of the PRC –Representations of Putonghua in South China Morning Post

As the national language of the PRC, the world's growing economic power and the sovereign of Hong Kong, Putonghua is a language with multiple facets of relevance for the current Special Administrative Region. This paper seeks to explore and explain different representations of Putonghua in Hong Kong's leading English-language newspaper South China Morning Post in articles published between January 2012 and February 2013. The representations are studied in the context of the different discourses in which they appear, some of which feature language(s) as a central theme and some more marginally. An overview is first presented of the scholarly research on the most important developments in Hong Kong's complex language scene from the beginnings of the colony until present day, with the aim of detecting developments and attitudes with potential relevance or parallels to the context of Putonghua today. The paper then reflects on the media and its role in producing and perpetuating discourses in the society, before turning to more practical considerations on Hong Kong's English and Chinese language media and the role of South China Morning Post in it. The methods used in analysing the discourses are those of discourse analysis, with textual analysis as its starting point, in which close attention is paid to linguistic forms as the concrete representations of meanings in a text. Particularly the immediate contexts of the appearances of the word “Putonghua” in the articles were studied carefully to detect vocabulary, grammar and semantical choices as signs of different discourses, potentially also revealing fundamental underlying assumptions and other “hidden meanings” in the text. Some of the most distinctive discourses in which different representations of Putonghua appeared were the Instrumental value for the individual (in which Putonghua was represented as a form of social capital); Othering of the mainlanders (in which Putonghua served as a concrete marker of distinction); Belonging to China (Putonghua as a symbol of unity); and Cultural distinctiveness of Hong Kong (Putonghua as a threat to Hong Kong's history and culture, as embodied in Cantonese). Some of these discourses were more prominent than others, and for example the discourse of Belonging to China was relatively rarely enacted in Hongkongers' voices. In general, the findings were not surprising in the light of the history, but showed a fair degree of consistency with what has been written earlier about the languages and attitudes towards them in Hong Kong. It has often been noted that Putonghua and its relation with Cantonese is a matter linked with the social identity of the colony and its citizens. While it appeared that there were no strict taboos in the representations of Putonghua in the societal context, the possibility of self-censorship cannot be ruled out as a factor toning down political discourses in the representations.

The future of branded sportswear store formats in Germany 2030: Four images of the future

A fast changing dynamic business environment is becoming a norm today in different areas, including retailing. The aims of this study are to explore existing store formats of branded sportswear retailing and their characteristics, and to identify the trends which might shape their future. The ultimate goal, however, is to create and analyze images of the future of branded sportswear retailing in Germany 2030 by applying the methods of futures studies. As theoretical background, the cyclical theories of retail evolution have been used. Empirical material is obtained by conducting a Disaggregative Policy Delphi method based study, the aim of which is to obtain well–argued qualitative and quantitative information from experts about store format development in order to create future images based on cluster analysis. Flagship stores, Concept stores, Factory Outlets, Pop-up stores, E-commerce and M-commerce represent the diversity of store formats existing in Germany today. They have different aims, roles, and advantages which retailers try to leverage. However such trends as multichannel integration, technological enhancements, growing popularity of online channels, switching customer behaviors, customization and personalization, and economic turbulence might shape the future of sportswear retailing. Four future images constructed: “Multichannel Integration”, “Smart and Personal”, “Consumer Diversification”, and “Always Online” – describe alternative futures of German branded sportswear store formats in 2030 based on different trends, assumptions, hopes and fears. They also point out uncertainties in retailing such as cannibalization of channels, the growing power and expectations of consumers, the complexity of multichannel synergies, and the switching customer behavior. Constructed future images, thus, provide readers with an opportunity to imagine and explore alternative states of the future of branded sportswear store formats in Germany 2030. They could serve well as a tool to communicate the results to decision–makers, compare them, and to analyze to inspire and direct actions for a better future tomorrow.

Future at risk: A study on the Club of Rome

Sustainability, in its modern meaning, has been discussed for more than forty years. However, many experts believe that humanity is still far from being sustainable. Some experts have argued that humanity should seek survivable development because it is too late for sustainable one, since 1990s. Obviously, some problems prevented humanity from becoming sustainable. This thesis focuses on the agenda of sustainability discussions and seeks for the essential topics missing from it. For this purpose, the research is conducted on 21 out of 33 books endorsed by the Club of Rome. All of these books are titled ‘a report to the Club of Rome’. The Club of Rome is an organization that has been constantly working on the problems of humankind for the past 40 years. This thesis has three main components: first, the messages of the reports to the Club of Rome, second, academics perceptions of the Club, and third, the Club member perceptions of its evolution, messages and missing topics. This thesis investigates the evolution of four aspects in the reports. The first one is the agenda of the reports. The second one is the basic approaches of the Club (i.e., global, long-term and holistic). The third one is the ways that the reports treat free market and growth ideology. The fourth one is the approach of the reports toward components of the global complex system (i.e., society, economy and politics). The outline of the thesis is as follows. First, the original reports are briefly summarized. After this, the academic perceptions are discussed and structured around three concepts (i.e., futures studies, sustainability and degrowth). In the final step, the perceptions of the experts are collected and analysed, using a variation of Delphi method, called ‘in-depth interviews’, and ‘quality content analysis’ method. This thesis is useful for those interested in sustainability, global problems, and the Club of Rome. This thesis concludes that the reports from 1972 up to 1980 were cohesive in discussing topics related to the problems of humankind. The topics of the reports are fragmented after this period. The basic approaches of CoR are visible in all the reports. However, after 1980, those approaches and especially holistic thinking are only visible in the background. Regarding the free market and growth ideology, although all the reports are against them, the early reports were more explicitly expressing their disagreement. A milestone is noticeable around 1980 when such objections went completely to the background. However, recent reports are more similar to those of 1970s both in adopting a holistic approach and in explicitly criticizing free market and growth ideology. Finally, concerning the components of global complex system, the society is excluded and the focus of the reports is on politics, economy and their relation. Concerning the topics missing from the debate, this thesis concludes that no major research has been conducted on the fundamental and underlying reasons of the problems (e.g. beliefs, values and culture). Studying the problems without considering their underlying reasons, obviously, leads to superficial and ineffective solutions. This might be one of the reasons that sustainability discussions have as yet led to no concrete result.

Potential and Challenges of Analog Reconfigurable Computation in Modern and Future CMOS

In this work, the feasibility of the floating-gate technology in analog computing platforms in a scaled down general-purpose CMOS technology is considered. When the technology is scaled down the performance of analog circuits tends to get worse because the process parameters are optimized for digital transistors and the scaling involves the reduction of supply voltages. Generally, the challenge in analog circuit design is that all salient design metrics such as power, area, bandwidth and accuracy are interrelated. Furthermore, poor flexibility, i.e. lack of reconfigurability, the reuse of IP etc., can be considered the most severe weakness of analog hardware. On this account, digital calibration schemes are often required for improved performance or yield enhancement, whereas high flexibility/reconfigurability can not be easily achieved. Here, it is discussed whether it is possible to work around these obstacles by using floating-gate transistors (FGTs), and analyze problems associated with the practical implementation. FGT technology is attractive because it is electrically programmable and also features a charge-based built-in non-volatile memory. Apart from being ideal for canceling the circuit non-idealities due to process variations, the FGTs can also be used as computational or adaptive elements in analog circuits. The nominal gate oxide thickness in the deep sub-micron (DSM) processes is too thin to support robust charge retention and consequently the FGT becomes leaky. In principle, non-leaky FGTs can be implemented in a scaled down process without any special masks by using “double”-oxide transistors intended for providing devices that operate with higher supply voltages than general purpose devices. However, in practice the technology scaling poses several challenges which are addressed in this thesis. To provide a sufficiently wide-ranging survey, six prototype chips with varying complexity were implemented in four different DSM process nodes and investigated from this perspective. The focus is on non-leaky FGTs, but the presented autozeroing floating-gate amplifier (AFGA) demonstrates that leaky FGTs may also find a use. The simplest test structures contain only a few transistors, whereas the most complex experimental chip is an implementation of a spiking neural network (SNN) which comprises thousands of active and passive devices. More precisely, it is a fully connected (256 FGT synapses) two-layer spiking neural network (SNN), where the adaptive properties of FGT are taken advantage of. A compact realization of Spike Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) within the SNN is one of the key contributions of this thesis. Finally, the considerations in this thesis extend beyond CMOS to emerging nanodevices. To this end, one promising emerging nanoscale circuit element - memristor - is reviewed and its applicability for analog processing is considered. Furthermore, it is discussed how the FGT technology can be used to prototype computation paradigms compatible with these emerging two-terminal nanoscale devices in a mature and widely available CMOS technology.

Future of Newspaper Business Models in Finland

The purpose of this Master’s thesis was to study the business model development in Finnish newspaper industry during the next then years through scenario planning. The objective was to see how will the business models develop amidst the many changes in the industry, what factors are affecting the change, what are the implications of these changes for the players in the industry and how should the Finnish newspaper companies evolve in order to succeed in the future. In this thesis the business model change is studied based on all the elements of business models, as it was discovered that the industry is too often focusing on changes in only few of those elements and a more broader view can provide valuable information for the companies. The results revealed that the industry is affected by many changes during the next ten years. Scenario planning provides a good tool for analyzing this change and for developing valuable options for businesses. After conducting series of interviews and discovering forces affecting the change, four different scenarios were developed centered on the role that newspaper will take and the level at which they are providing the content in the future. These scenarios indicated that there are varieties of options in the way the business models may develop and that companies should start making decisions proactively in order to succeed. As the business model elements are interdepended, changes made in the other elements will affect the whole model, making these decisions about the role and level of content important for the companies. In the future, it is likely that the Finnish newspaper industry will include many different kinds of business models, some of which can be drastically different from the current ones and some of which can still be similar, but take better into account the new kind of media environment.

The role of nuclear power in the future energy system

Currently widely accepted consensus is that greenhouse gas emissions produced by the mankind have to be reduced in order to avoid further global warming. The European Union has set a variety of CO2 reduction and renewable generation targets for its member states. The current energy system in the Nordic countries is one of the most carbon free in the world, but the aim is to achieve a fully carbon neutral energy system. The objective of this thesis is to consider the role of nuclear power in the future energy system. Nuclear power is a low carbon energy technology because it produces virtually no air pollutants during operation. In this respect, nuclear power is suitable for a carbon free energy system. In this master's thesis, the basic characteristics of nuclear power are presented and compared to fossil fuelled and renewable generation. Nordic energy systems and different scenarios in 2050 are modelled. Using models and information about the basic characteristics of nuclear power, an opinion is formed about its role in the future energy system in Nordic countries. The model shows that it is possible to form a carbon free Nordic energy system. Nordic countries benefit from large hydropower capacity which helps to offset fluctuating nature of wind power. Biomass fuelled generation and nuclear power provide stable and predictable electricity throughout the year. Nuclear power offers better energy security and security of supply than fossil fuelled generation and it is competitive with other low carbon technologies.