Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Externally excited synchronous machine: Testing the automation concept

This bachelor’s thesis is a part of the research project realized in the summer 2011 in Lappeenranta University of Technology. The goal of the project was to develop an automation concept for controlling the externally excited synchronous motor. Thesis concentrates on the testing planning and testing the system. Testing plan was made for three sectors: For the PLC program testing, for the communication testing and for the whole system testing. PLC program was tested with white box and destructive methods. Communication testing was done by switching maximum com-munication speed and checked if communication was reliable. Whole system testing included among other things speed and torque controlling. The system was tested with exploratory testing also. This enabled more reliable and broader testing than with systematical testing only.

Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Hearing Impairment and Tinnitus in the Elderly

The purpose of this study was to gather information on hearing impairment and related factors among elderly people. The HHIE-S questionnaire (Hearing Handicap Inventory for Elderly-Screening) and a single hearing question (”Do you feel you have a hearing loss”) were compared to audiometric hearing thresholds (N=164). HHIE-S was reliable for detecting moderate or worse hearing impairment. The single question was equally sensitive and more specific in identifying mild hearing impairment. The prevalence of hearing impairment was evaluated in four age cohorts (70, 75, 80 and 85 years, N=4067) in Turku, Finland. The HHIE-S cut-off score >8 as an indicator of at least mild hearing impairment yielded prevalence values of 37.7% - 54.1%, and a score >18 (moderate or more severe hearing impairment) was 21.1% - 38.9%. The single question test was positive in 25.5% - 46.2%. Hearing aid compliance and problems experienced by hearing aid users were recorded as informed by the participants in a mailed interview (N=249/4067). The hearing aids were used daily by 55.4%, and never by 10.7%. Use sank with advancing age. The disturbance caused by tinnitus among 583 subjects was compared to their level of alexithymia (TAS-20) and depressiveness (BDI). Depressiveness was weakly associated with annoying tinnitus, but not alexithymia. The prevalence of hearing impairment can be measured by enquiry. Hearing aid compliance should be improved by technical means and better counseling. The factors affecting the distress experienced by tinnitus patients need further study.

Testing Platform Development for Large Scale Solar Integration

Currently, a high penetration level of Distributed Generations (DGs) has been observed in the Danish distribution systems, and even more DGs are foreseen to be present in the upcoming years. How to utilize them for maintaining the security of the power supply under the emergency situations, has been of great interest for study. This master project is intended to develop a control architecture for studying purposes of distribution systems with large scale integration of solar power. As part of the EcoGrid EU Smart Grid project, it focuses on the system modelling and simulation of a Danish representative LV network located in Bornholm island. Regarding the control architecture, two types of reactive control techniques are implemented and compare. In addition, a network voltage control based on a tap changer transformer is tested. The optimized results after applying a genetic algorithm to five typical Danish domestic loads are lower power losses and voltage deviation using Q(U) control, specially with large consumptions. Finally, a communication and information exchange system is developed with the objective of regulating the reactive power and thereby, the network voltage remotely and real-time. Validation test of the simulated parameters are performed as well.

Design and testing of an armature-reaction-compensated permanent magnet synchronous generator for island operation

At present, permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) are of great interest. Since they do not have electrical excitation losses, the highly efficient, lightweight and compact PMSGs equipped with damper windings work perfectly when connected to a network. However, in island operation, the generator (or parallel generators) alone is responsible for the building up of the network and maintaining its voltage and reactive power level. Thus, in island operation, a PMSG faces very tight constraints, which are difficult to meet, because the flux produced by the permanent magnets (PMs) is constant and the voltage of the generator cannot be controlled. Traditional electrically excited synchronous generators (EESGs) can easily meet these constraints, because the field winding current is controllable. The main drawback of the conventional EESG is the relatively high excitation loss. This doctoral thesis presents a study of an alternative solution termed as a hybrid excitation synchronous generator (HESG). HESGs are a special class of electrical machines, where the total rotor current linkage is produced by the simultaneous action of two different excitation sources: the electrical and permanent magnet (PM) excitation. An overview of the existing HESGs is given. Several HESGs are introduced and compared with the conventional EESG from technical and economic points of view. In the study, the armature-reaction-compensated permanent magnet synchronous generator with alternated current linkages (ARC-PMSG with ACL) showed a better performance than the other options. Therefore, this machine type is studied in more detail. An electromagnetic design and a thermal analysis are presented. To verify the operation principle and the electromagnetic design, a down-sized prototype of 69 kVA apparent power was built. The experimental results are demonstrated and compared with the predicted ones. A prerequisite for an ARC-PMSG with ACL is an even number of pole pairs (p = 2, 4, 6, …) in the machine. Naturally, the HESG technology is not limited to even-pole-pair machines. However, the analysis of machines with p = 3, 5, 7, … becomes more complicated, especially if analytical tools are used, and is outside the scope of this thesis. The contribution of this study is to propose a solution where an ARC-PMSG replaces an EESG in electrical power generation while meeting all the requirements set for generators given for instance by ship classification societies, particularly as regards island operation. The maximum power level when applying the technology studied here is mainly limited by the economy of the machine. The larger the machine is, the smaller is the efficiency benefit. However, it seems that machines up to ten megawatts of power could benefit from the technology. However, in low-power applications, for instance in the 500 kW range, the efficiency increase can be significant.

Intended Quality: Relationships between Development, Testing and Quality

An empirical study was conducted in the area of software engineering to study relationships between development, testing and intended software quality. International standards served as a starting point of the study. For analysis a round of interviews was kept and transcribed. It was found that interaction between humans is critical, especially in transferring knowledge and standards’ processes. The standards are communicated through interaction and learning processes are involved before compliance. One of the results was that testing is the key to sufficient quality. The outcome was that successful interaction, sufficient testing and compliance with the standards combined with good motivation may provide most repeatable intended quality.

Empirical study on the adoption, use and effects of cloud-based testing

Cloud computing is a practically relevant paradigm in computing today. Testing is one of the distinct areas where cloud computing can be applied. This study addressed the applicability of cloud computing for testing within organizational and strategic contexts. The study focused on issues related to the adoption, use and effects of cloudbased testing. The study applied empirical research methods. The data was collected through interviews with practitioners from 30 organizations and was analysed using the grounded theory method. The research process consisted of four phases. The first phase studied the definitions and perceptions related to cloud-based testing. The second phase observed cloud-based testing in real-life practice. The third phase analysed quality in the context of cloud application development. The fourth phase studied the applicability of cloud computing in the gaming industry. The results showed that cloud computing is relevant and applicable for testing and application development, as well as other areas, e.g., game development. The research identified the benefits, challenges, requirements and effects of cloud-based testing; and formulated a roadmap and strategy for adopting cloud-based testing. The study also explored quality issues in cloud application development. As a special case, the research included a study on applicability of cloud computing in game development. The results can be used by companies to enhance the processes for managing cloudbased testing, evaluating practical cloud-based testing work and assessing the appropriateness of cloud-based testing for specific testing needs.

Modal testing and numerical modeling of the dynamic properties of layered sheet-steel structure

Recently, due to the increasing total construction and transportation cost and difficulties associated with handling massive structural components or assemblies, there has been increasing financial pressure to reduce structural weight. Furthermore, advances in material technology coupled with continuing advances in design tools and techniques have encouraged engineers to vary and combine materials, offering new opportunities to reduce the weight of mechanical structures. These new lower mass systems, however, are more susceptible to inherent imbalances, a weakness that can result in higher shock and harmonic resonances which leads to poor structural dynamic performances. The objective of this thesis is the modeling of layered sheet steel elements, to accurately predict dynamic performance. During the development of the layered sheet steel model, the numerical modeling approach, the Finite Element Analysis and the Experimental Modal Analysis are applied in building a modal model of the layered sheet steel elements. Furthermore, in view of getting a better understanding of the dynamic behavior of layered sheet steel, several binding methods have been studied to understand and demonstrate how a binding method affects the dynamic behavior of layered sheet steel elements when compared to single homogeneous steel plate. Based on the developed layered sheet steel model, the dynamic behavior of a lightweight wheel structure to be used as the structure for the stator of an outer rotor Direct-Drive Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator designed for high-power wind turbines is studied.

Expectations, frames and practices of genetic counselling in different contexts of genetic testing

Genetic counselling is a process in which the counsellee receives information and support concerning a genetic disease. This study examines the genetic counselling attached to genetic testing. Since genetic information is increasing alongside new testing technologies and the situations faced at the genetic clinics will therefore be more diverse, it is essential to assess what the expectations directed at genetic counselling are. It is also important to compare how they face the current counselling practices. In this study, the expectations, frames and practices of genetic counselling in different contexts of genetic testing were examined from three different perspectives: First, international guidelines covering genetic counselling were analysed to summarise what is expected from genetic counselling and to study how genetic information is framed. Second, national experts in European countries were asked about the regulations and practices of genetic counselling in their country. Finally, ten counsellees who had visited a genetic clinic were interviewed to analyse their expectations and experiences. The counsellees’ perspective was also approached through the background review of the previous studies on counsellees’ experiences. On the basis of the study, there are basic elements that are expected to be covered in genetic counselling from all perspectives. However, the views concerning bioethics, genetic exceptionalism and psychosocial aspects vary depending on the perspective and on the individual situation. Since there are sometimes more differences than similarities between genetic tests, no universal recommendations for counselling can be applied. The practices of genetic counselling should be defined situationally, emphasising the individual needs over the genes.

Cardiac Troponin Specific Autoantibodies: Analytical Tools for Exploring Their Impact on Cardiac Troponin I Testing

Cardiac troponin (cTn) I and T are the recommended biomarkers for the diagnosis and risk stratification of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS), a major cause of cardiovascular death and disability worldwide. It has recently been demonstrated that cTn-specific autoantibodies (cTnAAb) can negatively interfere with cTnI detection by immunoassays to the extent that cTnAAb-positive patients may be falsely designated as cTnI-negative. The aim of this thesis was to develop and optimize immunoassays for the detection of both cTnI and cTnAAb, which would eventually enable exploring the clinical impact of these autoantibodies on cTnI testing and subsequent patient management. The extent of cTnAAb interference in different cTnI assay configurations and the molecular characteristics of cTnAAbs were investigated in publications I and II, respectively. The findings showed that cTnI midfragment targeting immunoassays used predominantly in clinical practice are affected by cTnAAb interference which can be circumvented by using a novel 3+1-type assay design with three capture antibodies against the N-terminus, midfragment and C-terminus and one tracer antibody against the C-terminus. The use of this assay configuration was further supported by the epitope specificity study, which showed that although the midfragment is most commonly targeted by cTnAAbs, the interference basically encompasses the whole molecule, and there may be remarkable individual variation at the affected sites. In publications III and IV, all the data obtained in previous studies were utilized to develop an improved version of an existing cTnAAb assay and a sensitive cTnI assay free of this specific analytical interference. The results of the thesis showed that approximately one in 10 patients with suspected ACS have detectable amounts of cTnAAbs in their circulation and that cTnAAbs can inhibit cTnI determination when targeted against the binding sites of assay antibodies used in its immunological detection. In the light of these observations, the risk of clinical misclassification caused by the presence of cTnAAbs remains a valid and reasonable concern. Because the titers, affinities and epitope specificities of cTnAAbs and the concentration of endogenous cTnI determine the final effect of circulating cTnAAbs, appropriately sized studies on their clinical significance are warranted. The new cTnI and cTnAAb assays could serve as analytical tools for establishing the impact of cTnAAbs on cTnI testing and also for unraveling the etiology of cTn-related autoimmune responses.

Testing FCM technique for the wind energy scenarios in Finland

In the latter days, human activities constantly increase greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere, which has a direct impact on a global climate warming. Finland as European Union member, developed national structural plan to promote renewable energy generation, pursuing the aspects of Directive 2009/28/EC and put it on the sharepoint. Finland is on a way of enhancing national security of energy supply, increasing diversity of the energy mix. There are plenty significant objectives to develop onshore and offshore wind energy generation in country for a next few decades, as well as another renewable energy sources. To predict the future changes, there are a lot of scenario methods developed and adapted to energy industry. The Master’s thesis explored “Fuzzy cognitive maps” approach in scenarios developing, which captures expert’s knowledge in a graphical manner and using these captures for a raw scenarios testing and refinement. There were prospects of Finnish wind energy development for the year of 2030 considered, with aid of FCM technique. Five positive raw scenarios were developed and three of them tested against integrated expert’s map of knowledge, using graphical simulation. The study provides robust scenarios out of the preliminary defined, as outcome, assuming the impact of results, taken after simulation. The thesis was conducted in such way, that there will be possibilities to use existing knowledge captures from expert panel, to test and deploy different sets of scenarios regarding to Finnish wind energy development.