Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Modeling of electrolyte sorption – from phase equilibria to dynamic separation systems

In this thesis, general approach is devised to model electrolyte sorption from aqueous solutions on solid materials. Electrolyte sorption is often considered as unwanted phenomenon in ion exchange and its potential as an independent separation method has not been fully explored. The solid sorbents studied here are porous and non-porous organic or inorganic materials with or without specific functional groups attached on the solid matrix. Accordingly, the sorption mechanisms include physical adsorption, chemisorption on the functional groups and partition restricted by electrostatic or steric factors. The model is tested in four Cases Studies dealing with chelating adsorption of transition metal mixtures, physical adsorption of metal and metalloid complexes from chloride solutions, size exclusion of electrolytes in nano-porous materials and electrolyte exclusion of electrolyte/non-electrolyte mixtures. The model parameters are estimated using experimental data from equilibrium and batch kinetic measurements, and they are used to simulate actual single-column fixed-bed separations. Phase equilibrium between the solution and solid phases is described using thermodynamic Gibbs-Donnan model and various adsorption models depending on the properties of the sorbent. The 3-dimensional thermodynamic approach is used for volume sorption in gel-type ion exchangers and in nano-porous adsorbents, and satisfactory correlation is obtained provided that both mixing and exclusion effects are adequately taken into account. 2-Dimensional surface adsorption models are successfully applied to physical adsorption of complex species and to chelating adsorption of transition metal salts. In the latter case, comparison is also made with complex formation models. Results of the mass transport studies show that uptake rates even in a competitive high-affinity system can be described by constant diffusion coefficients, when the adsorbent structure and the phase equilibrium conditions are adequately included in the model. Furthermore, a simplified solution based on the linear driving force approximation and the shrinking-core model is developed for very non-linear adsorption systems. In each Case Study, the actual separation is carried out batch-wise in fixed-beds and the experimental data are simulated/correlated using the parameters derived from equilibrium and kinetic data. Good agreement between the calculated and experimental break-through curves is usually obtained indicating that the proposed approach is useful in systems, which at first sight are very different. For example, the important improvement in copper separation from concentrated zinc sulfate solution at elevated temperatures can be correctly predicted by the model. In some cases, however, re-adjustment of model parameters is needed due to e.g. high solution viscosity.

Reduction of specific energy consumption of a thermomechanical pulping plant

Kuumahiertoprosessi on erittäin energiaintensiivinen prosessi, jonka energianominaiskulutus (EOK) on yleisesti 2–3.5 MWh/bdt. Noin 93 % energiasta kuluu jauhatuksessa jakautuen niin, että kaksi kolmasosaa kuluu päälinjan ja yksi kolmasosa rejektijauhatuksessa. Siksi myös tämän työn tavoite asetettiin vähentämään energian kulutusta juuri pää- ja rejektijauhatuksessa. Päälinjan jauhatuksessa tutkimuskohteiksi valittiin terityksen, tehojaon ja tuotantotason vaikutus EOK:een. Rejektijauhatuksen tehostamiseen pyrittiin yrittämällä vähentää rejektivirtaamaa painelajittelun keinoin. Koska TMP3 laitoksen jauhatuskapasiteettia on nostettu 25 %, tavoite oli nostaa päälinjan lajittelun kapasiteettia saman verran. Toisena tavoitteena oli pienentää rejektisuhdetta pää- ja rejektilajittelussa ja siten vähentää energiankulutusta rejektijauhatuksessa. Näitä tavoitteita lähestyttiin vaihtamalla päälinjan lajittimiin TamScreen-roottorit ja rejektilajittimiin Metso ProFoil-roottorit ja optimoimalla kuitufraktiot sihtirumpu- ja prosessiparametrimuutoksin. Syöttävällä terätyypillä pystyttiin vähentämään EOK:ta 100 kWh/bdt, mutta korkeampi jauhatusintensiteetti johti myös alempiin lujuusominaisuuksiin, korkeampaan ilmanläpäisyyn ja korkeampaan opasiteettiin. Myös tehojaolla voitiin vaikuttaa EOK:een. Kun ensimmäisen vaiheen jauhinta kuormitettiin enemmän, saavutettiin korkeimmillaan 70 kWh/bdt EOK-vähennys. Tuotantotason mittaamisongelmat heikensivät tuotantotasokoeajojen tuloksia siinä määrin, että näiden tulosten perusteella ei voida päätellä, onko EOK tuotantotasoriippuvainen vai ei. Päälinjan lajittelun kapasiteettia pystyttiin nostamaan TS-roottorilla vain 18 % jääden hieman tavoitetasosta. Rejektilajittelussa pystyttiin vähentämään rejektimäärää huomattavasti Metso ProFoil-roottorilla sekä sihtirumpu- ja prosessiparametrimuutoksin. Lajittamokehityksellä saavutettu EOK-vähennys arvioitiin massarejektisuhteen pienentymisen ja rejektijauhatuksessa käytetyn EOK:n avulla olevan noin 130 kWh/bdt. Yhteenvetona voidaan todeta, että tavoite 300 kWh/bdt EOK-vähennyksestä voidaan saavuttaa työssä käytetyillä tavoilla, mikäli niiden täysi potentiaali hyödynnetään tuotannossa.

Assessing the Environmental Value of Water Treatment Solutions in the Mining Industry

Environmental accountability has become a major source of competitive advantage for industrial companies, because customers consider it as relevant buying criterion. However, in order to leverage their environmental responsibility, industrial suppliers have to be able to demonstrate the environmental value of their products and services, which is also the aim of Kemira, a global water chemistry company considered in this study. The aim of this thesis is to develop a tool which Kemira can use to assess the environmental value of their solutions for the customer companies in mining industry. This study answers to questions on what kinds of methods to assess environmental impacts exist, and what kind of tool could be used to assess the environmental value of Kemira’s water treatment solutions. The environmental impacts of mining activities vary greatly between different mines. Generally the major impacts include the water related issues and wastes. Energy consumption is also a significant environmental aspect. Water related issues include water consumption and impacts in water quality. There are several methods to assess environmental impacts, for example life cycle assessment, eco-efficiency tools, footprint calculations and process simulation. In addition the corresponding financial value may be estimated utilizing monetary assessment methods. Some of the industrial companies considered in the analysis of industry best practices use environmental and sustainability assessments. Based on the theoretical research and conducted interviews, an Excel based tool utilizing reference data on previous customer cases and customer specific test results was considered to be most suitable to assess the environmental value of Kemira’s solutions. The tool can be used to demonstrate the functionality of Kemira’s solutions in customers’ processes, their impacts in other process parameters and their environmental and financial aspects. In the future, the tool may be applied to fit also Kemira’s other segments, not only mining industry.

Power cycling lifetime estimation of IGBT power modules based on chip temperature modeling

In this doctoral thesis, methods to estimate the expected power cycling life of power semiconductor modules based on chip temperature modeling are developed. Frequency converters operate under dynamic loads in most electric drives. The varying loads cause thermal expansion and contraction, which stresses the internal boundaries between the material layers in the power module. Eventually, the stress wears out the semiconductor modules. The wear-out cannot be detected by traditional temperature or current measurements inside the frequency converter. Therefore, it is important to develop a method to predict the end of the converter lifetime. The thesis concentrates on power-cycling-related failures of insulated gate bipolar transistors. Two types of power modules are discussed: a direct bonded copper (DBC) sandwich structure with and without a baseplate. Most common failure mechanisms are reviewed, and methods to improve the power cycling lifetime of the power modules are presented. Power cycling curves are determined for a module with a lead-free solder by accelerated power cycling tests. A lifetime model is selected and the parameters are updated based on the power cycling test results. According to the measurements, the factor of improvement in the power cycling lifetime of modern IGBT power modules is greater than 10 during the last decade. Also, it is noticed that a 10 C increase in the chip temperature cycle amplitude decreases the lifetime by 40%. A thermal model for the chip temperature estimation is developed. The model is based on power loss estimation of the chip from the output current of the frequency converter. The model is verified with a purpose-built test equipment, which allows simultaneous measurement and simulation of the chip temperature with an arbitrary load waveform. The measurement system is shown to be convenient for studying the thermal behavior of the chip. It is found that the thermal model has a 5 C accuracy in the temperature estimation. The temperature cycles that the power semiconductor chip has experienced are counted by the rainflow algorithm. The counted cycles are compared with the experimentally verified power cycling curves to estimate the life consumption based on the mission profile of the drive. The methods are validated by the lifetime estimation of a power module in a direct-driven wind turbine. The estimated lifetime of the IGBT power module in a direct-driven wind turbine is 15 000 years, if the turbine is located in south-eastern Finland.

Quantum Hall effect in 2 dimensional GaInAs structure

Transport properties of GaAs / δ – Mn / GaAs / InxGa1-xAs / GaAs structure with Mn δ – layer, which is separated from InxGa1-xAs quantum well (QW) by 3 nm thick GaAs spacer was investigated. This structure with high mobility was characterized by X-ray difractometry and reflectometry. Transport and electrical properties of the structure were measured by using Pulsed Magnetic Field System (PMFS). During investigation of the Shubnikov – de Haas and the Hall effects the main parameters of QW structure such as cyclotron mass, Fermi level, g – factor, Dingle temperature and concentration of holes were estimated. Obtained results show high quality of the prepared structure. However, anomalous Hall effect at temperatures 2.09 K, 3 K, 4.2 K is not clearly observed. Attempts to identify magnetic moment were made. For this purpose the polarity of the filed was changed to the opposite at each shot. As a result hysteresis loop was not observed in the magnetic field dependences of the anomalous Hall resistivity.This can be attributed to the imperfection of the experimental setup.

Energy Efficiency of a Diesel-Electric MobileWorking Machine

The power demand of many mobile working machines such as mine loaders, straddle carriers and harvesters varies significantly during operation, and typically, the average power demand of a working machine is considerably lower than the demand for maximum power. Consequently, for most of the time, the diesel engine of a working machine operates at a poor efficiency far from its optimum efficiency range. However, the energy efficiency of dieseldriven working machines can be improved by electric hybridization. This way, the diesel engine can be dimensioned to operate within its optimum efficiency range, and the electric drive with its energy storages responds to changes in machine loading. A hybrid working machine can be implemented in many ways either as a parallel hybrid, a series hybrid or a combination of these two. The energy efficiency of hybrid working machines can be further enhanced by energy recovery and reuse. This doctoral thesis introduces the component models required in the simulation model of a working machine. Component efficiency maps are applied to the modelling; the efficiency maps for electrical machines are determined analytically in the whole torque–rotational speed plane based on the electricalmachine parameters. Furthermore, the thesis provides simulation models for parallel, series and parallel-series hybrid working machines. With these simulation models, the energy consumption of the working machine can be analysed. In addition, the hybridization process is introduced and described. The thesis provides a case example of the hybridization and dimensioning process of a working machine, starting from the work cycle of the machine. The selection and dimensioning of the hybrid system have a significant impact on the energy consumption of a hybrid working machine. The thesis compares the energy consumption of a working machine implemented by three different hybrid systems (parallel, series and parallel-series) and with different component dimensions. The payback time of a hybrid working machine and the energy storage lifetime are also estimated in the study.

Mathematical modeling of level of anaesthesia from EEG measurements

Problem of modeling of anaesthesia depth level is studied in this Master Thesis. It applies analysis of EEG signals with nonlinear dynamics theory and further classification of obtained values. The main stages of this study are the following: data preprocessing; calculation of optimal embedding parameters for phase space reconstruction; obtaining reconstructed phase portraits of each EEG signal; formation of the feature set to characterise obtained phase portraits; classification of four different anaesthesia levels basing on previously estimated features. Classification was performed with: Linear and quadratic Discriminant Analysis, k Nearest Neighbours method and online clustering. In addition, this work provides overview of existing approaches to anaesthesia depth monitoring, description of basic concepts of nonlinear dynamics theory used in this Master Thesis and comparative analysis of several different classification methods.

Ligniinin hienojauhatus planeettamyllyllä

Kirjallisuusosassa tarkastellaan ligniiniä luonnon polymeerinä sekä sen kemiallisia perustietoja. Aiheena on myös sen tuotanto ja käyttö uusiutuvana raaka-ainelähteenä energian-, materiaali- ja kemikaalituotantoon sekä niiden mahdolliset tulevaisuudennäkymät. Mekaanisten prosessien osalta keskitytään kiintoaineen hienontamiseen. Lisäksi perehdytään planeettamyllyn toiminnan teoriaan sekä tuoreimpiin tutkimuksiin planeettamyllyjauhatukseen liittyen. Työn kokeellisen osan tarkoituksena oli tutkia ligniinin jauhautuvuutta, sillä partikkelien pienentämisellä voidaan kasvattaa ligniininijauheen ominaisalaa ja tasoittaa sen kokojakaumaa. Jauhautuvuuden avulla voidaan esimerkiksi arvioida ligniinille tehtävän hienojauhatuksen kannattavuutta jatkoprosesseja varten. Tutkimuskysymyksinä oli ”kuinka hyvin ligniini jauhautuu planeettamyllyllä?”, ”onko kylmäkäsittelyllä vaikutusta jauhatustulokseen?”, ”miten eri parametrit (jauhatusaika, kuulakoko ja kierrosnopeus) vaikuttavat jauhatustulokseen?” sekä ”muuttaako hienojauhatus ligniinin kemiallista koostumusta?”. Tutkittavana materiaalina oli kaupallinen kraft-ligniini ja koelaitteena käytettiin planeettamyllyä. Syötölle ja kaikille jauhatustuotteille suoritettiin partikkelikokoanalyysi, ja lisäksi syötölle ja erittäin hienoksi jauhetulle tuotteelle suoritettiin FTIR-analyysi. Kokeiden mukaan ligniini oli hyvin jauhautuvaa, eikä kylmäkäsittelyllä ollut merkittävää vaikutusta jauhatukseen. Kuulakoon pienentäminen sekä jauhatusajan ja kierrosnopeuden kasvattaminen alensivat ligniininjauheen partikkelikokoa. Lisäksi hienojauhatuksen ei todettu muuttaneen ligniinin kemiallista koostumusta.

Real-time Image-based RGB-D Camera Motion Tracking and Environment Mapping

In this work, image based estimation methods, also known as direct methods, are studied which avoid feature extraction and matching completely. Cost functions use raw pixels as measurements and the goal is to produce precise 3D pose and structure estimates. The cost functions presented minimize the sensor error, because measurements are not transformed or modified. In photometric camera pose estimation, 3D rotation and translation parameters are estimated by minimizing a sequence of image based cost functions, which are non-linear due to perspective projection and lens distortion. In image based structure refinement, on the other hand, 3D structure is refined using a number of additional views and an image based cost metric. Image based estimation methods are particularly useful in conditions where the Lambertian assumption holds, and the 3D points have constant color despite viewing angle. The goal is to improve image based estimation methods, and to produce computationally efficient methods which can be accomodated into real-time applications. The developed image-based 3D pose and structure estimation methods are finally demonstrated in practise in indoor 3D reconstruction use, and in a live augmented reality application.

Optimization of parameters for fiber laser-MAG hybrid welding in shipbuilding applications

The Arctic region becoming very active area of the industrial developments since it may contain approximately 15-25% of the hydrocarbon and other valuable natural resources which are in great demand nowadays. Harsh operation conditions make the Arctic region difficult to access due to low temperatures which can drop below -50 °C in winter and various additional loads. As a result, newer and modified metallic materials are implemented which can cause certain problems in welding them properly. Steel is still the most widely used material in the Arctic regions due to high mechanical properties, cheapness and manufacturability. Moreover, with recent steel manufacturing development it is possible to make up to 1100 MPa yield strength microalloyed high strength steel which can be operated at temperatures -60 °C possessing reasonable weldability, ductility and suitable impact toughness which is the most crucial property for the Arctic usability. For many years, the arc welding was the most dominant joining method of the metallic materials. Recently, other joining methods are successfully implemented into welding manufacturing due to growing industrial demands and one of them is the laser-arc hybrid welding. The laser-arc hybrid welding successfully combines the advantages and eliminates the disadvantages of the both joining methods therefore produce less distortions, reduce the need of edge preparation, generates narrower heat-affected zone, and increase welding speed or productivity significantly. Moreover, due to easy implementation of the filler wire, accordingly the mechanical properties of the joints can be manipulated in order to produce suitable quality. Moreover, with laser-arc hybrid welding it is possible to achieve matching weld metal compared to the base material even with the low alloying welding wires without excessive softening of the HAZ in the high strength steels. As a result, the laser-arc welding methods can be the most desired and dominating welding technology nowadays, and which is already operating in automotive and shipbuilding industries with a great success. However, in the future it can be extended to offshore, pipe-laying, and heavy equipment industries for arctic environment. CO2 and Nd:YAG laser sources in combination with gas metal arc source have been used widely in the past two decades. Recently, the fiber laser sources offered high power outputs with excellent beam quality, very high electrical efficiency, low maintenance expenses, and higher mobility due to fiber optics. As a result, fiber laser-arc hybrid process offers even more extended advantages and applications. However, the information about fiber or disk laser-arc hybrid welding is very limited. The objectives of the Master’s thesis are concentrated on the study of fiber laser-MAG hybrid welding parameters in order to understand resulting mechanical properties and quality of the welds. In this work only ferrous materials are reviewed. The qualitative methodological approach has been used to achieve the objectives. This study demonstrates that laser-arc hybrid welding is suitable for welding of many types, thicknesses and strength of steels with acceptable mechanical properties along very high productivity. New developments of the fiber laser-arc hybrid process offers extended capabilities over CO2 laser combined with the arc. This work can be used as guideline in hybrid welding technology with comprehensive study the effect of welding parameter on joint quality.

Sähköverkon säävarmuuden kehittäminen verkkoliiketoiminnan valvontamallin näkökulmasta

Sähkömarkkinalain uudistuminen syksyllä 2013 aiheutti sähköverkkoyhtiöille velvoitteen parantaa sähköverkkoja siten, että ne täyttävät uuden lain mukaiset keskeytysaikavaatimukset. Laissa asemakaava-alueilla sallitaan enintään 6 tunnin mittainen sähkönjakelunkeskeytys ja haja-asutusalueella 36 tunnin keskeytys. Diplomityössä kehitetään ElMil Oy:lle palvelumalli, jonka avulla pyritään parantamaan sähköverkkojen säävarmuutta ja arvioimaan parannuksien aiheuttamia taloudellisia vaikutuksia verkkoyhtiön kannattavuuteen verkkoliiketoiminnan valvontamallin kautta. Työn teoriaosiossa käydään läpi uuden sähkömarkkinalain muutoksia toimitusvarmuuden kannalta sekä avataan verkkoliiketoiminnan valvontamallin komponentteja ja sitä kuinka niitä on hyödynnetty tässä työssä. Kyseisiä tietoja hyödynnetään case-tarkastelussa, jossa testataan kehitetyn palvelumallin toimivuutta Järvi-Suomen Energia Oy:n sähkönjakeluverkon kahden sähköaseman jakeluverkkojen kokoisella alueella. Tarkastelualueen sähkönjakeluverkolle tehdään suurhäiriömalli, jonka perusteella arvioidaan vaadittavaa säävarman verkon osuutta, jotta sähkömarkkinalain vaatimukset täyttyvät. Alueen investointikohteet optimoidaan kannattavuuden perusteella, jolloin saadaan kustannustehokas investointiohjelma tiettyjen reunaehtojen puitteissa. Lisäksi suurhäiriömallin parametreja varioidaan herkkyystarkasteluissa. Työn lopputuloksena saadaan ElMil Oy:lle kehitettyä palvelumalli. Case-tarkasteluissa havaitaan, että investointikustannukset nousevat merkittävästi. Verkkoliiketoiminnan valvontamallin kannustinvaikutuksista ja sallitusta tuotosta saadaan hyvä näkemys. Herkkyystarkasteluista nähdään, että suurhäiriömalli on hyvin riippuvainen valituista parametreista, jolloin niiden valintaan tulee kiinnittää huomiota

A chart of the southern part of South America : with the track of the centurion from the island of St. Catherines to the island of Juan Fernandes in which is inserted the variation and soundings observ'd on board her, together with her deviation from her estimated course in passing round Cap Horn, occasiond by the force of the currents / R. W. Seale sculp

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