160 resultados para empirical modelling


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This study investigates whether there are differences in profitability of PPI companies based on the growth strategy they have chosen to follow. It is examined whether those companies following organic growth strategy are more profitable than those companies following acquisitive growth strategy. It is also investigated are ones larger than the others, or are ones growing faster than the others. Also, the factors affecting the profitability of acquisitive companies are further examined. The results showed that there actually are differences between the two groups. Organically grown companies were found to be more profitable, smaller and growing slower than acquisitive companies. When it comes to examining only acquisitive companies there could be found factors that better or worsen the profitability of companies. For example targets that the company has bought in developing markets were making them more profitable.

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Tämän työn tavoitteena oli selvittää Kouvolan seudun kuntayhtymän atk palveluyksikön tietotekniikkahankintojen hankintaprosessin parantamismahdollisuuksia sekä laatia niiden pohjalta ratkaisuehdotus hankintaprosessin toimivuuden selkeyttämiseksi sekä tehostamiseksi. Työ voidaan jakaa teoreettiseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Työn teoriaosuudessa tarkastellaan liiketoimintaprosesseja ja hankintoja sekä yleisellä tasolla että julkishallinnon näkökulmasta. Empiirinen osuus sisältää kohdeorganisaation tietotekniikkahankintojen lähtötilanteen kuvauksen, nykytila-analyysin, analyysin pohjalta mallinnetun tavoitetilakuvauksen sekä ratkaisuehdotuksen hankintaprosessin parantamiseksi. Teoriaosuuden tutkimusmenetelmänä on työn aihepiirin kirjallisuustutkimus ja empiirisen osuuden aineistonkeräysmetodeina käytetään osallistuvaa havainnointia, vapaamuotoisia haastatteluja sekä organisaation dokumenttien analysointia. Työn tuloksena syntyi ehdotus Kouvolan seudun kuntayhtymän atk palveluyksikön tietotekniikkahankintojen hankintaprosessin parantamiseksi. Suunnitellun ratkaisuehdotuksen mukaan hankintaprosessia voidaan merkittävästi parantaa prosessin tavoitetilamallin pohjalta suunnitellun sähköisen tietotekniikkahankintajärjestelmän avulla.

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This study examines the short time price effect of dividend announcements during a boom and a recession. The data being used here is gathered from the years of 2000 - 2002 when it was a recession after the techno bubble burst and from the years 2005 - 2007 when investors experienced large capital gains all around the world. The data consists of dividend increases and intact observations. The aim is to find out differences in abnormal returns between a boom and a recession. Second, the study examines differences between different dividend yield brackets. Third, Finnish extra dividends, mainly being delivered to shareholders in 2004 are included to the empirical test. Generally stated, the aim is to find out do investors respect dividends more during a recession than a boom and can this be proved by using dividend yield brackets. The empirical results from U.S shows that the abnormal returns of dividend increase announcements during the recession in the beginning of this decade were larger than during the boom. Thus, investors seem to respect dividend increases more when stock prices are falling. Substantial abnormal returns of dividend increases during the time period of 2005 - 2007 could not be found. The results from the overall samples state that the abnormal returns during the recession were positively slightly higher than during the boom. No clear and strong evidence was found between different dividend yield brackets. In Finland, there were substantial abnormal returns on the announcement day of the extra dividends. Thus, indicating that investors saw the extra dividends as a good thing for shareholders' value. This paper is mostly in line with the theory that investors respect dividends more during bad times than good times.

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Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia epänormaalien tuottojen esiintymistä nousu- ja laskusuhdanteen aikana osingonilmoituspäivän ympärillä. Osinkoilmoitukset ovat kerätty Yhdysvaltojen markkinalta (NYSE) ajanjaksoilta 2000 - 2002, jolloin pörssit laskivat teknokuplan jälkeen ja 2005 - 2007, jolloin sijoittajat kokivat suuria kurssivoittoja. Osinkoilmoitushavainnot koostuvat yhtiöistä, jotka nostivat tai pitivät osinko per osake paikallaan. Tavoitteena on tutkia eroja epänormaaleissa tuotoissa näiden kahden ajanjakson välillä. Toiseksi, tavoitteena on tutkia miten epänormaalit tuotot poikkeavat toisistaan eri osinkotuottoluokissa. Kolmanneksi, tavoitteena on tutkia esiintyikö markkinoilla epänormaaleja tuottoja kun suomalaiset yritykset ilmoittivat ylimääräisistä osingoista, pääasiassa vuonna 2004. Yksinkertaisesti ja lyhyesti sanottuna tavoitteena on tutkia arvostavatko sijoittajat osinkoja enemmän laskukauden vai nousukauden aikana. Rahoitusteorian mukaan sijoittajien tulisi arvostaa laskukauden aikana enemmän yhtiöitä, jotka pystyvät maksamaan huonosta taloustilanteesta huolimatta hyvää osinkoa. Empiiriset testit Yhdysvalloista osoittavat, että osingon nostamisesta johtuvat epänormaalit tuotot olivat suuremmat laskusuhdanteen aikana kuin noususuhdanteen aikana. Tämä on linjassa teorian kanssa. Osingon-nostot aiheuttivat nousukauden aikana vähäisiä epänormaaleja tuottoja. Selviä eroja eri osingontuottoluokkien välillä ei pystytty havaitsemaan. Tulokset yhdistetystä aineistosta osoittavat, että sijoittajat kokivat vähäisiä positiivisia epänormaaleja tuottoja laskukauden aikana. Nousukautena tuotot olivat lähellä nollaa. Suomen markkinoilla havaittiin selvä epänormaalituotto osingonilmoituspäivänä. Tulokset ovat pääpiirteittäin linjassa teorian kanssa. Sijoittajat arvostavat osinkoja hieman enemmän lasku- kuin noususuhdanteen aikana.

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Tiehallinto ja Ratahallintokeskus (väylävirastot) ovat hankkineet yhteisen toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän. Työn tavoitteena on kuvata väylävirastojen hankkeen ja hankesalkun hallintaprosessit ja selvittää, onko väylävirastoille löydettävissä Sampo-järjestelmään yhtenäiset toimintamallit prosesseille, sekä määrittää virastoille yhteinen sanasto. Lisäksi työn tavoitteena on tutkia, millaisia menetelmiä ja malleja on olemassa toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöönottoprojektin läpiviemiseksi. Teoriaosuudessa tarkastellaan toiminnanohjausjärjestelmiä ja niiden käyttöönottoprosessimalleja sekä prosesseja ja niiden kuvaamista. Empiriaosuuden alussa tarkastellaan toteutus- ja käyttöönottoprojektin etenemistä teoriassa esitetyn mallin mukaisesti. Työssä kuvataan hankkeen ja hankesalkun hallintaprosessien nykytila, tavoitetila sekä järjestelmään sovittaminen. Väylävirastot löysivät yhtenäisen tavoitetilan. Prosessien sovittaminen järjestelmään on vielä kesken. Kesällä 2008 näytti siltä, että väylävirastojen yhtenäiset tavoitetilan prosessit saadaan sovitettua pienillä muutoksilla järjestelmään. Järjestelmä tuo toimintaan paljon muutoksia ja vaikutuksia. Kevään aikana yhtenäisen sanaston tärkeys korostui.

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This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

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Nowadays the Finnish-Russian electric energy interaction is carried out through the back-to-back DC Vyborg substation and several power plants working synchronously with Finnish power system. Constant amount of energy flows in one direction — from Russia to Finland. But the process of electricity market development in Russian energy system makes the new possibilities of electrical cooperation available. The goal of master's thesis is to analyze the current state and possible evolution trends of North-West Russian system in relation with future possible change in power flow between Russia and Finland. The research is done by modelling the market of North-West Russia and examination of technical grid restrictions. The operational market models of North-West region of Russia for the years 2008 and 2015 were created during the research process. The description of prepared market models together with modelling results and their analysis are shown in the work. The description of power flow study process and results are also presented.

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The purpose of this dissertation is to analyse older consumers' adoption of information and communication technology innovations, assess the effect of aging related characteristic, and evaluate older consumers' willingness to apply these technologies in health care services. This topic is considered important, because the population in Finland (as in other welfare states) is aging and thus offers a possibility for marketers, but on the other hand threatens society with increasing costs for healthcare. Innovation adoption has been under research from several aspects in both organizational and consumer research. In the consumer behaviour, several theories have been developed to predict consumer responses to innovation. The present dissertation carefully reviews previous research and takes a closer look at the theory of planned behaviour, technology acceptance model and diffusion of innovations perspective. It is here suggested that there is a possibility that these theories can be combined and complemented to predict the adoption of ICT innovations among aging consumers, taking the aging related personal characteristics into account. In fact, there are very few studies that have concentrated on aging consumers in the innovation research, and thus there was a clear indent for the present research. ICT in the health care context has been studied mainly from the organizational point of view. If the technology is thus applied for the communication between the individual end-user and service provider, the end-user cannot be shrugged off. The present dissertation uses empirical evidence from a survey targeted to 55-79 year old people from one city in Southern-Carelia. The empirical analysis of the research model was mainly based on structural equation modelling that has been found very useful on estimating causal relationships. The tested models were targeted to predict the adoption stage of personal computers and mobile phones, and the adoption intention of future health services that apply these devices for communication. The present dissertation succeeded in modelling the adoption behaviour of mobile phones and PCs as well as adoption intentions of future services. Perceived health status and three components behind it (depression, functional ability, and cognitive ability) were found to influence perception of technology anxiety. Better health leads to less anxiety. The effect of age was assessed as a control variable, in order to evaluate its effect compared to health characteristics. Age influenced technology perceptions, but to lesser extent compared to health. The analyses suggest that the major determinant for current technology adoption is perceived behavioural control, and additionally technology anxiety that indirectly inhibit adoption through perceived control. When focusing on future service intentions, the key issue is perceived usefulness that needs to be highlighted when new services are launched. Besides usefulness, the perception of online service reliability is important and affects the intentions indirectly. To conclude older consumers' adoption behaviour is influenced by health status and age, but also by the perceptions of anxiety and behavioural control. On the other hand, launching new types of health services for aging consumers is possible after the service is perceived reliable and useful.

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance persistence of international mutual funds, employing a data sample which includes 2,168 European mutual funds investing in Asia-Pacific region; Japan excluded. Also, a number of performance measures is tested and compared, and especially, this study tries to find out whether iterative Bayesian procedure can be used to provide more accurate predictions on future performance. Finally, this study examines whether the cross-section of mutual fund returns can be explained with simple accounting variables and market risk. To exclude the effect of the Asian currency crisis in 1997, the studied time period includes years from 1999 to 2007. The overall results showed significant performance persistence for repeating winners when performance was tested with contingency tables. Also the annualized alpha spreads between the top and bottom portfolios were more than ten percent at their highest. Nevertheless, the results do not confirm the improved prediction accuracy of the Bayesian alphas.

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The purpose of this study was to define the customer profitability of the case company as well as to specify the factors that explain customer profitability. The study was made with a quantitative research method. The research hypotheses were formulated mainly on the grounds of previous research, and were tested with statistical research methods. The research results showed that customer profitability is not equally distributed among the customers of the case company, and the majority of its customers is profitable. The interpreters for absolute customer profitability were sales volume and the customer’s location region. The interpreters for relative customer profitability were the customer’s location region and the product segment into which a customer can be classified on the basis of the products that were sold to this customer.

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Fine powders of minerals are used commonly in the paper and paint industry, and for ceramics. Research for utilizing of different waste materials in these applications is environmentally important. In this work, the ultrafine grinding of two waste gypsum materials, namely FGD (Flue Gas Desulphurisation) gypsum and phosphogypsum from a phosphoric acid plant, with the attrition bead mill and with the jet mill has been studied. The ' objective of this research was to test the suitability of the attrition bead mill and of the jet mill to produce gypsum powders with a particle size of a few microns. The grinding conditions were optimised by studying the influences of different operational grinding parameters on the grinding rate and on the energy consumption of the process in order to achieve a product fineness such as that required in the paper industry with as low energy consumption as possible. Based on experimental results, the most influential parameters in the attrition grinding were found to be the bead size, the stirrer type, and the stirring speed. The best conditions, based on the product fineness and specific energy consumption of grinding, for the attrition grinding process is to grind the material with small grinding beads and a high rotational speed of the stirrer. Also, by using some suitable grinding additive, a finer product is achieved with a lower energy consumption. In jet mill grinding the most influential parameters were the feed rate, the volumetric flow rate of the grinding air, and the height of the internal classification tube. The optimised condition for the jet is to grind with a small feed rate and with a large rate of volumetric flow rate of grinding air when the inside tube is low. The finer product with a larger rate of production was achieved with the attrition bead mill than with the jet mill, thus the attrition grinding is better for the ultrafine grinding of gypsum than the jet grinding. Finally the suitability of the population balance model for simulation of grinding processes has been studied with different S , B , and C functions. A new S function for the modelling of an attrition mill and a new C function for the modelling of a jet mill were developed. The suitability of the selected models with the developed grinding functions was tested by curve fitting the particle size distributions of the grinding products and then comparing the fitted size distributions to the measured particle sizes. According to the simulation results, the models are suitable for the estimation and simulation of the studied grinding processes.

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Fatal and permanently disabling accidents form only one per I cent of all occupational accidents but in many branches of industry they account for more than half the accident costs. Furthermore the human suffering of the victim and his family is greater in severe accidents than in slight ones. For both human and economic reasons the severe accident risks should be identified befor injuries occur. It is for this purpose that different safety analysis methods have been developed . This study shows two new possible approaches to the problem.. The first is the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate the potential severity of accidents independent of the actual severity. The second is the hypothesis that when workers are also asked to report near accidents, they are particularly prone to report potentially severe near accidents on the basis of their own subjective risk assessment. A field study was carried out in a steel factory. The results supported both the hypotheses. The reliability and the validity of post incident estimates of an accident's potential severity were reasonable. About 10 % of accidents were estimated to be potentially critical; they could have led to death or very severe permanent disability. Reported near accidents were significantly more severe, about 60 $ of them were estimated to be critical. Furthermore the validity of workers subjective risk assessment, manifested in the near accident reports, proved to be reasonable. The studied new methods require further development and testing. They could be used both in routine usage in work places and in research for identifying and setting the priorities of accident risks.

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The strategic group theory provides an intermediate level of analysis between a single company and the whole industry for identifying issues about the company's competitive position and strategic choices. Strategic groups are companies within an industry with similar strategic characteristics or competing on similar bases. Strategic choices are aligned with the firms’ resources. The purpose of this study was to identify the strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe, and study, whether a certain group membership results in financial performance differences. Altogether 80 European wind energy companies were included in the study, which were clustered into four strategic groups according to their age and growth rate. Each group corresponds to a different strategy. The results show that the wind energy companies can be clustered according to the chosen strategic characteristics. Strategic decisions were investigated with characteristic variables. Performance variables were used in the analysis measuring profitability, liquidity and solvency of the groups. These strategic choices of the companies did not have a significant influence on the firms’ performance. The more mature and slower growing group proved to be the most successful. However, the differences between groups were generally not statistically significant. The only statistically significant difference found was in the solvency ratio between Mature Slow and Young Rapid groups. Measured with these variables, more mature and slower growing companies performed better. Therefore, a certain strategic group membership results in performance differences.

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Synchronous motors are used mainly in large drives, for example in ship propulsion systems and in steel factories' rolling mills because of their high efficiency, high overload capacity and good performance in the field weakening range. This, however, requires an extremely good torque control system. A fast torque response and a torque accuracy are basic requirements for such a drive. For large power, high dynamic performance drives the commonly known principle of field oriented vector control has been used solely hitherto, but nowadays it is not the only way to implement such a drive. A new control method Direct Torque Control (DTC) has also emerged. The performance of such a high quality torque control as DTC in dynamically demanding industrial applications is mainly based on the accurate estimate of the various flux linkages' space vectors. Nowadays industrial motor control systems are real time applications with restricted calculation capacity. At the same time the control system requires a simple, fast calculable and reasonably accurate motor model. In this work a method to handle these problems in a Direct Torque Controlled (DTC) salient pole synchronous motor drive is proposed. A motor model which combines the induction law based "voltage model" and motor inductance parameters based "current model" is presented. The voltage model operates as a main model and is calculated at a very fast sampling rate (for example 40 kHz). The stator flux linkage calculated via integration from the stator voltages is corrected using the stator flux linkage computed from the current model. The current model acts as a supervisor that prevents only the motor stator flux linkage from drifting erroneous during longer time intervals. At very low speeds the role of the current model is emphasised but, nevertheless, the voltage model always stays the main model. At higher speeds the function of the current model correction is to act as a stabiliser of the control system. The current model contains a set of inductance parameters which must be known. The validation of the current model in steady state is not self evident. It depends on the accuracy of the saturated value of the inductances. Parameter measurement of the motor model where the supply inverter is used as a measurement signal generator is presented. This so called identification run can be performed prior to delivery or during drive commissioning. A derivation method for the inductance models used for the representation of the saturation effects is proposed. The performance of the electrically excited synchronous motor supplied with the DTC inverter is proven with experimental results. It is shown that it is possible to obtain a good static accuracy of the DTC's torque controller for an electrically excited synchronous motor. The dynamic response is fast and a new operation point is achieved without oscillation. The operation is stable throughout the speed range. The modelling of the magnetising inductance saturation is essential and cross saturation has to be considered as well. The effect of cross saturation is very significant. A DTC inverter can be used as a measuring equipment and the parameters needed for the motor model can be defined by the inverter itself. The main advantage is that the parameters defined are measured in similar magnetic operation conditions and no disagreement between the parameters will exist. The inductance models generated are adequate to meet the requirements of dynamically demanding drives.