Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Integration of microgrids into electricity distribution networks

Existing electricity distribution system is under pressure because implementation of distributed generation changes the grid configuration and also because some customers demand for better distribution reliability. In a short term, traditional network planning does not offer techno-economical solutions for the challenges and therefore the idea of microgrids is introduced. Islanding capability of microgrids is expected to enable better reliability by reducing effects of faults. The aim of the thesis is to discuss challenges in integration of microgrids into distribution networks. Study discusses development of microgrid related smart grid features and gives estimation of the guideline of microgrid implementation. Thesis also scans microgrid pilots around the world and introduces the most relevant projects. Analysis reveals that the main focus of researched studies is on low voltage microgrids. This thesis extends the idea to medium voltage distribution system and introduces challenges related to medium voltage microgrid implementation. Differences of centralized and distributed microgrid models are analyzed and the centralized model is discovered to be easiest to implement into existing distribution system. Preplan of medium voltage microgrid pilot is also carried out in this thesis.

Creating possibilities for collective creativity : Brokerage Functions in Practice-Based Innovation

In the network era, creative achievements like innovations are more and more often created in interaction among different actors. The complexity of today‘s problems transcends the individual human mind, requiring not only individual but also collective creativity. In collective creativity, it is impossible to trace the source of new ideas to an individual. Instead, creative activity emerges from the collaboration and contribution of many individuals, thereby blurring the contribution of specific individuals in creating ideas. Collective creativity is often associated with diversity of knowledge, skills, experiences and perspectives. Collaboration between diverse actors thus triggers creativity and gives possibilities for collective creativity. This dissertation investigates collective creativity in the context of practice-based innovation. Practice-based innovation processes are triggered by problem setting in a practical context and conducted in non-linear processes utilising scientific and practical knowledge production and creation in cross-disciplinary innovation networks. In these networks diversity or distances between innovation actors are essential. Innovation potential may be found in exploiting different kinds of distances. This dissertation presents different kinds of distances, such as cognitive, functional and organisational which could be considered as sources of creativity and thus innovation. However, formation and functioning of these kinds of innovation networks can be problematic. Distances between innovating actors may be so great that a special interpretation function is needed – that is, brokerage. This dissertation defines factors that enhance collective creativity in practice-based innovation and especially in the fuzzy front end phase of innovation processes. The first objective of this dissertation is to study individual and collective creativity at the employee level and identify those factors that support individual and collective creativity in the organisation. The second objective is to study how organisations use external knowledge to support collective creativity in their innovation processes in open multi-actor innovation. The third objective is to define how brokerage functions create possibilities for collective creativity especially in the context of practice-based innovation. The research objectives have been studied through five substudies using a case-study strategy. Each substudy highlights various aspects of creativity and collective creativity. The empirical data consist of materials from innovation projects arranged in the Lahti region, Finland, or materials from the development of innovation methods in the Lahti region. The Lahti region has been chosen as the research context because the innovation policy of the region emphasises especially the promotion of practice-based innovations. The results of this dissertation indicate that all possibilities of collective creativity are not utilised in internal operations of organisations. The dissertation introduces several factors that could support collective creativity in organisations. However, creativity as a social construct is understood and experienced differently in different organisations, and these differences should be taken into account when supporting creativity in organisations. The increasing complexity of most potential innovations requires collaborative creative efforts that often exceed the boundaries of the organisation and call for the involvement of external expertise. In practice-based innovation different distances are considered as sources of creativity. This dissertation gives practical implications on how it is possible to exploit different kinds of distances knowingly. It underlines especially the importance of brokerage functions in open, practice-based innovation in order to create possibilities for collective creativity. As a contribution of this dissertation, a model of brokerage functions in practice-based innovation is formulated. According to the model, the results and success of brokerage functions are based on the context of brokerage as well as the roles, tasks, skills and capabilities of brokers. The brokerage functions in practice-based innovation are also possible to divide into social and cognitive brokerage.

Techno-Economic Feasibility of Novel On-Line Condition Monitoring Methods in Low Voltage Distribution Networks

The focus in this thesis is to study both technical and economical possibilities of novel on-line condition monitoring techniques in underground low voltage distribution cable networks. This thesis consists of literature study about fault progression mechanisms in modern low voltage cables, laboratory measurements to determine the base and restrictions of novel on-line condition monitoring methods, and economic evaluation, based on fault statistics and information gathered from Finnish distribution system operators. This thesis is closely related to master’s thesis “Channel Estimation and On-line Diagnosis of LV Distribution Cabling”, which focuses more on the actual condition monitoring methods and signal theory behind them.

Teknologiansiirto vuorovaikutuksena yliopistojen ja yritysten välillä - Systemaattinen kirjallisuuskatsaus

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää teknologiansiirrosta vuorovaikutusnäkökulmasta tehdyt empiiriset tutkimukset systemaattisen kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla. Teoreettinen näkökulma perustui vuorovaikutteisten innovaatioverkostojen rakentamista yliopistojen, yritysten ja valtion välille korostavaan Triple Helix -viitekehykseen. Valtion ohjaava rooli rajattiin tutkielman ulkopuolelle. Tutkimuskysymykset olivat miten teknologiansiirtoa on empiirisesti tutkittu yliopistojen ja yritysten välisenä vuorovaikutuksena, mitkä ovat yliopistojen ja yritysten väliset vuorovaikutusmuodot ja miten teknologiansiirtoa kannattaisi tutkia. Tutkimuksista koostuva aineisto hankittiin systemaattisella kirjallisuushaulla. Aineisto rajattiin teknologiansiirtoa vuorovaikutusnäkökulmasta tutkineisiin empiirisiin tutkimuksiin. Analysointimenetelmänä käytettiin sisällönanalyysiä. Tulosten perusteella teknologiansiirron tutkimisen teoreettisia lähestymistapoja olivat yrittäjyyssuuntautuneisuuteen yliopistoissa kannustava ”entrepreneurial university” -suuntaus, innovaatiot ja innovaatiojärjestelmät, tutkijoiden ominaisuudet ja sosiaalinen pääoma, vuorovaikutus- ja tiedonsiirtoprosessit, organisationaalinen oppiminen ja yliopiston teknologiansiirtopolitiikat. Teknologiansiirtoa oli tutkittu enemmän yliopisto- kuin yritysnäkökulmasta. Tutkimuksista puolet otti huomioon hiljaisen tiedon siirrettävyyden vain vuorovaikutuksen avulla. Tutkielman tuloksena tunnistettiin 34 erilaista vuorovaikutusmuotoa teknologiansiirrossa yliopistojen ja yritysten välillä. Tutkituimmat vuorovaikutusmuodot olivat patentit ja lisenssit, asiantuntija-apu ja konsultointi, epämuodolliset kontaktit ja verkostot, yliopistojen spin-off-yritykset ja sopimustutkimus. Tutkimusyhteistyötä oli tutkittu suhteellisen vähän. Teknologiansiirron tehokkuutta kannattaisi tutkia yritysnäkökulmasta selvittämällä tutkimusyhteistyön ja innovaatioiden välinen yhteys. Teknologiansiirtoa vuorovaikutusprosessina kannattaisi tutkia kaikkien siihen osallistuvien sidosryhmien näkökulmista. Teknologiansiirtoprojektien onnistumiseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä voisi selvittää vertailevien tapaustutkimusten avulla. Tiedonsiirtoprosessiin liittyvää vuorovaikutusta ei prosessina kannattaisi tutkia irrallisena ilmiönä siihen liittyvistä tiedonsiirto-olosuhteista. Vuorovaikutusmuotojen määrä suomalaisessa teknologiansiirrossa olisi tutkimisen arvoinen asia. Vuorovaikutusmuotojen lukumäärän selvittämisellä voisi arvioida yhteistyösuhteen syvyyttä yliopistojen ja yritysten välillä. Yritykset tulisi nähdä aktiivisina toimijoina teknologiansiirrossa, ja teknologiansiirtoa tulisi tutkia myös yritysten näkökulmasta.

Knowledge sharing in intrafirm networks in organization

The objective of this study was research the shared knowledge and the means of sharing with the help of social network analysis. The purpose of this study was to give descriptive information to case-organization about its situational network status in different units. The premise of the study is the success of organizational competences and networks, especially when it comes to the sharing of knowledge. The research was accomplished in a TEKES –projects, Developing Network-Based Services – The Role of Competences and Networks COMNET –projects case-organization. Lappeenranta School of Business and the case-organization started the project in co-operation. The baseline for the study was organizational competencies and organizational networks as success factors, especially from the knowledge sharing’s point of view. The research was based on triangulation, which included pre-interviews, network analyses accomplished by Webropol –e-mail survey and qualitative interviews. The results indicated that regular unit meetings were experienced to be the most important method of knowledge sharing along with e-mailing, intranet and weekly bulletins. The co-operation between units was also experienced to be important when evaluating knowledge sharing and communication. The intrafirm network was experienced tight. Dispersed units and partly unclear means of information sharing were the biggest obstacles for information communication. Knowledge sharing, communication with others and trainings were seen important in the case-organization.

On Dynamic Monitoring Methods for Networks-on-Chip

Rapid ongoing evolution of multiprocessors will lead to systems with hundreds of processing cores integrated in a single chip. An emerging challenge is the implementation of reliable and efficient interconnection between these cores as well as other components in the systems. Network-on-Chip is an interconnection approach which is intended to solve the performance bottleneck caused by traditional, poorly scalable communication structures such as buses. However, a large on-chip network involves issues related to congestion problems and system control, for instance. Additionally, faults can cause problems in multiprocessor systems. These faults can be transient faults, permanent manufacturing faults, or they can appear due to aging. To solve the emerging traffic management, controllability issues and to maintain system operation regardless of faults a monitoring system is needed. The monitoring system should be dynamically applicable to various purposes and it should fully cover the system under observation. In a large multiprocessor the distances between components can be relatively long. Therefore, the system should be designed so that the amount of energy-inefficient long-distance communication is minimized. This thesis presents a dynamically clustered distributed monitoring structure. The monitoring is distributed so that no centralized control is required for basic tasks such as traffic management and task mapping. To enable extensive analysis of different Network-on-Chip architectures, an in-house SystemC based simulation environment was implemented. It allows transaction level analysis without time consuming circuit level implementations during early design phases of novel architectures and features. The presented analysis shows that the dynamically clustered monitoring structure can be efficiently utilized for traffic management in faulty and congested Network-on-Chip-based multiprocessor systems. The monitoring structure can be also successfully applied for task mapping purposes. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the presented in-house simulation environment is flexible and practical tool for extensive Network-on-Chip architecture analysis.

The nature of communication structures of university students in an international web-based computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL) course

Communication, the flow of ideas and information between individuals in a social context, is the heart of educational experience. Constructivism and constructivist theories form the foundation for the collaborative learning processes of creating and sharing meaning in online educational contexts. The Learning and Collaboration in Technology-enhanced Contexts (LeCoTec) course comprised of 66 participants drawn from four European universities (Oulu, Turku, Ghent and Ramon Llull). These participants were split into 15 groups with the express aim of learning about computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL). The Community of Inquiry model (social, cognitive and teaching presences) provided the content and tools for learning and researching the collaborative interactions in this environment. The sampled comments from the collaborative phase were collected and analyzed at chain-level and group-level, with the aim of identifying the various message types that sustained high learning outcomes. Furthermore, the Social Network Analysis helped to view the density of whole group interactions, as well as the popular and active members within the highly collaborating groups. It was observed that long chains occur in groups having high quality outcomes. These chains were also characterized by Social, Interactivity, Administrative and Content comment-types. In addition, high outcomes were realized from the high interactive cases and high-density groups. In low interactive groups, commenting patterned around the one or two central group members. In conclusion, future online environments should support high-order learning and develop greater metacognition and self-regulation. Moreover, such an environment, with a wide variety of problem solving tools, would enhance interactivity.

A cyber security architecture for military networks using a cognitive network approach

Cyber security is one of the main topics that are discussed around the world today. The threat is real, and it is unlikely to diminish. People, business, governments, and even armed forces are networked in a way or another. Thus, the cyber threat is also facing military networking. On the other hand, the concept of Network Centric Warfare sets high requirements for military tactical data communications and security. A challenging networking environment and cyber threats force us to consider new approaches to build security on the military communication systems. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a cyber security architecture for military networks, and to evaluate the designed architecture. The architecture is described as a technical functionality. As a new approach, the thesis introduces Cognitive Networks (CN) which are a theoretical concept to build more intelligent, dynamic and even secure communication networks. The cognitive networks are capable of observe the networking environment, make decisions for optimal performance and adapt its system parameter according to the decisions. As a result, the thesis presents a five-layer cyber security architecture that consists of security elements controlled by a cognitive process. The proposed architecture includes the infrastructure, services and application layers that are managed and controlled by the cognitive and management layers. The architecture defines the tasks of the security elements at a functional level without introducing any new protocols or algorithms. For evaluating two separated method were used. The first method is based on the SABSA framework that uses a layered approach to analyze overall security of an organization. The second method was a scenario based method in which a risk severity level is calculated. The evaluation results show that the proposed architecture fulfills the security requirements at least at a high level. However, the evaluation of the proposed architecture proved to be very challenging. Thus, the evaluation results must be considered very critically. The thesis proves the cognitive networks are a promising approach, and they provide lots of benefits when designing a cyber security architecture for the tactical military networks. However, many implementation problems exist, and several details must be considered and studied during the future work.

Modelling flexible asset management in industrial maintenance companies and networks

The tightening competition and increasing dynamism have created an emerging need for flexible asset management. This means that the changes of market demand should be responded to with adjustments in the amount of assets tied to the balance sheets of companies. On the other hand, industrial maintenance has recently experienced drastic changes, which have led to an increase in the number of maintenance networks (consisting of customer companies that buy maintenance services, as well as various supplier companies) and inter-organizational partnerships. However, the research on maintenance networks has not followed the changes in the industry. Instead, there is a growing need for new ways of collaboration between partnering companies to enhance the competitiveness of the whole maintenance network. In addition, it is more and more common for companies to pursue lean operations in their businesses. This thesis shows how flexible asset management can increase the profitability of maintenance companies and networks under dynamic operating conditions, and how the additional value can then be shared between the network partners. Firstly, I have conducted a systematic literature review to identify what kind of requirements for asset management models are set by the increasing dynamism. Then I have responded to these requirements by constructing an analytical model for flexible asset management, linking asset management to the profitability and financial state of a company. The thesis uses the model to show how flexible asset management can increase profitability in maintenance companies and networks, and how the created value can be shared in the networks to reach a win-win situation. The research indicates that the existing models for asset management are heterogeneous by nature due to the various definitions of ‘asset management’. I conclude that there is a need for practical asset management models which address assets comprehensively with an inter-organizational, strategic view. The comprehensive perspective, taking all kinds of asset types into account, is needed to integrate the research on asset management with the strategic management of companies and networks. I will show that maintenance companies can improve their profitability by increasing the flexibility of their assets. In maintenance networks, reorganizing the ownership of the assets among the different network partners can create additional value. Finally, I will introduce flexible asset management contracts for maintenance networks. These contracts address the value sharing related to reorganizing the ownership of assets according to the principles of win-win situations.

Communication Solutions for LVDC Island Networks

Production and generation of electrical power is evolving to more environmental friendly technologies and schemes. Pushed by the increasing cost of fossil fuels, the operational costs of producing electrical power with fossil fuels and the effect in the environment, like pollution and global warming, renewable energy sources gain con-stant impulse into the global energy economy. In consequence, the introduction of distributed energy sources has brought a new complexity to the electrical networks. In the new concept of smart grids and decen-tralized power generation; control, protection and measurement are also distributed and requiring, among other things, a new scheme of communication to operate with each other in balance and improve performance. In this research, an analysis of different communication technologies (power line communication, Ethernet over unshielded twisted pair (UTP), optic fiber, Wi-Fi, Wi-MAX, and Long Term Evolution) and their respective characteristics will be carried out. With the objective of pointing out strengths and weaknesses from different points of view (technical, economical, deployment, etc.) to establish a richer context on which a decision for communication approach can be done depending on the specific application scenario of a new smart grid deployment. As a result, a description of possible optimal deployment solutions for communication will be shown considering different options for technologies, and a mention of different important considerations to be taken into account will be made for some of the possible network implementation scenarios.

Impact of reliability of supply on long-term development approaches to electricity distribution networks

The Finnish electricity distribution sector, rural areas in particular, is facing major challenges because of the economic regulation, tightening supply security requirements and the ageing network asset. Therefore, the target in the distribution network planning and asset management is to develop and renovate the networks to meet these challenges in compliance with the regulations in an economically feasible way. Concerning supply security, the new Finnish Electricity Market Act limits the maximum duration of electricity supply interruptions to six hours in urban areas and 36 hours in rural areas. This has a significant impact on distribution network planning, especially in rural areas where the distribution networks typically require extensive modifications and renovations to meet the supply security requirements. This doctoral thesis introduces a methodology to analyse electricity distribution system development. The methodology is based on and combines elements of reliability analysis, asset management and economic regulation. The analysis results can be applied, for instance, to evaluate the development of distribution reliability and to consider actions to meet the tightening regulatory requirements. Thus, the methodology produces information for strategic decision-making so that DSOs can respond to challenges arising in the electricity distribution sector. The key contributions of the thesis are a network renovation concept for rural areas, an analysis to assess supply security, and an evaluation of the effects of economic regulation on the strategic network planning. In addition, the thesis demonstrates how the reliability aspect affects the placement of automation devices and how the reserve power can be arranged in a rural area network.